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1.
Estimating hydrological characteristics in the Amu Darya River basin under climate change conditions
N. A. Agal’tseva M. V. Bolgov T. Yu. Spektorman M. D. Trubetskova V. E. Chub 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2011,36(10):681-689
Under consideration are results of solving the problem of the river water content estimation under conditions of uncertainties
of climate change forecasts and the catchment state with a reference to the Amu Darya River basin. When constructing regional
climate models, one selected a multimodel approach using the results of several global models and a statistical downscaling
method that made the climate scenarios more detailed. The estimates demonstrated that in the medium- and long-term perspective,
the Amu Darya River runoff is expected to decrease. As a result of the Bayesian ideology application, using the calculations
got with a total probability formula, a prognostic probability curve of an annual river runoff supply of the basin rivers
was derived based on different weights given to the estimates of a mean value for different climate scenarios. Prognostic
characteristics of the annual runoff for the Amu Darya basin rivers are estimated in a form acceptable for hydrologic and
hydroeconomic application. 相似文献
2.
Water Resources - A generalized step-by-step statistical method for calculating the maximal precipitation sums of low probability is proposed. The method is applied to the case of daily... 相似文献
3.
Water Resources - The study is focused on examining and simulating the formation processes of the runoff and pollution export in the case of Rostov (Rostov Velikii), a town in the Volga basin. The... 相似文献
4.
M. V. Bolgov E. A. Korobkina M. D. Trubetskova I. A. Filippova 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2018,43(10):639-645
The main components ofthe Caspian Sea water balance and water level are assessed. Stochastic models of time series of the water balance components are proposed ustng morphometric dependences specified by creating and processing digital elevation models for the flooded areas. The sea level forecast is obtained by the method of simulation modeling based on algorithms for the generation of Markovian random sequences with non-Gaussian marginal distributions. 相似文献
5.
The Lower Volga is a Russian region, which has a unique natural resources and a territory which is the area of collision of the interests of different economic branches that use water resources. The economic development of the region requires effective water resources management in harmony with natural conditions and the operation of the Volga-Kama reservoir system. A reliable management tool is a computer decision support system for the Lower Volga. The problems to be solved with this system answer the current water problems of the region. Data on the programs under implementation and to be developed are given; water apportioning model is given; and the way of coordinated choice of management regime of the Volga-Kama reservoir system and water resources use in the Lower Volga is demonstrated. 相似文献
6.
An approach to assessing design hydrological characteristics under nonstationary conditions is under consideration. The Bayesian
algorithm for assessing prognostic (design) characteristics of the minimum runoff is recommended with a special reference
to processing observation data on the river runoff in the Upper Don River basin. 相似文献
7.
Water Resources - The article continues the discussion of the developed new computer technology for the analysis of problems and decision support in the supply of water resources to the users of... 相似文献
8.
Lake Baikal: Extreme level as a rare hydrological event 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
M. V. Bolgov A. L. Buber E. A. Korobkina A. A. Lyubushin I. A. Filippova 《Water Resources》2017,44(3):522-536
The optimal boundaries of water level variation range in Lake Baikal have been determined under the conditions of runoff regulation at the Irkutsk HPP and the extremely low water abundance in lake basin in recent years. The properties of the time series of level regime and the characteristics of runoff from its drainage basin have been studied. The formation of long-term dry periods in the region has been studied, and the regularities in level regime variations in the lake have been estimated for both natural and runoff-regulation conditions, and the specifics of runoff regulation and level drawdown in dry years have been considered. 相似文献
9.
The solution of the problem of evaluating the characteristics of maximal runoff by composed-distribution method is considered for the case of the confluence zone of the Zeya and Amur rivers. The method of solution of the probability problem is based on the construction of a random process of mean daily water discharges by simulating the inflow from unregulated river reaches and taking into account the reservoir-operating curve. The subsequent transformation of inflow in the channel system provides the values of runoff and their probability distribution in the required section. 相似文献
10.
Assessing the efficiency of combined use of surface water and groundwater for process water supply to Kalininskaya NPP 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The potential improvement of the reliability of process water supply system is discussed for the case of an important power
facility with the use of combined water intake systems. Hydrological simulation is used to determine the deficiency periods
of surface water resources and, accordingly, the period of involvement of subsurface compensation water intake. A hydrodynamic
model is used to predict the damage to surface runoff caused by the operation of the groundwater intake. The results are used
to prepare an operations schedule for the management of combined water intake system. 相似文献