Assessment of agricultural drought during crop-growing season in the Sudano–Sahelian region of Cameroon     

Njouenwet  Ibrahim  Vondou  Derbetini Appolinaire  Fita Dassou  Elisabeth  Ayugi  Brian Odhiambo  Nouayou  Robert 《Natural Hazards》2021,106(1):561-577

Natural Hazards - Drought is a recurrent phenomenon in the Sudano–Sahelian region of Cameroon. However, it has received very little attention, especially, on its impacts on the growing season...  相似文献   

Benchmarks for multicomponent reactive transport across a cement/clay interface     

Nicolas C. M. Marty  Olivier Bildstein  Philippe Blanc  Francis Claret  Benoit Cochepin  Eric C. Gaucher  Diederik Jacques  Jean-Eric Lartigue  Sanheng Liu  K. Ulrich Mayer  Johannes C. L. Meeussen  Isabelle Munier  Ingmar Pointeau  Danyang Su  Carl I. Steefel 《Computational Geosciences》2015,19(3):635-653

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Silver fluxes to the Gironde Estuary - Eleven years (1999-2009) of monitoring at the watershed scale     

Laurent LanceleurJörg Schäfer  Cécile BossyAlexandra Coynel  Aurélie LarroseMatthieu Masson  Gérard Blanc 《Applied Geochemistry》2011,26(5):797-808

Although Ag has long been recognized as highly toxic to aquatic organisms and as an efficient tracer of urban wastewater inputs, there are very few data available on Ag levels and fluxes in rivers and estuaries. Due to anomalously high Ag concentrations in oysters from the estuary mouth, dissolved (Ag_D) and particulate Ag (Ag_P) concentrations in rivers of the Gironde Estuary watershed were studied. Using daily discharge, Suspended particulate matter (SPM) data and monthly measured Ag_D and Ag_P, the respective fluxes were estimated at the three main entries of the Gironde Estuary and at selected key sites at the outlets of different sub-watersheds for multiple years of the past decade. Dissolved and particulate Ag concentrations were 0.5 ng/L (detection limit) to 5.7 ng/L and 0.13-13.9 mg/kg in all rivers, except for the Riou-Mort River (up to 1260 ng/L and 261 mg/kg) that has been heavily polluted by former Zn ore treatment and remaining waste tailings. At all sites Ag transport mainly (73-100%) occurred in the particulate phase, i.e. strongly depended on hydrological parameters. Comparing Th-normalised (i.e. grain size independent) Ag_P levels at the different sites including one remote site showed that the regional background is best described by Ag_P/Th_P = 0.026. The anthropogenic components in Ag_P levels and fluxes ranged from 24% to 90% at all sites, except for the Riou-Mort River (81-99%). Although this former ore treatment site still is an evident Ag source to the Lot-Garonne fluvial-estuarine system, its contribution to Ag fluxes at the main entry of the Gironde Estuary (i.e. 0.33-2.44 t/a at the La Reole site) is <11%. This clearly suggests that other sources such as rock weathering and erosion (0.057-0.817 t/a), urban wastewater inputs (0.042-0.057 t/a) and cloud-seeding (0.030-0.063 t/a) contribute the major parts of the fluvial Ag budget in this watershed. The estimated anthropogenic surface- and population-specific Ag fluxes in the studied system were 1.14-682 g/km²/a and 0.028-6.05 g/person/a, respectively. The results obtained suggest that the Gironde fluvial-estuarine system is contaminated by Ag inputs from various sources, but further work is necessary to (i) identify and quantify the major sources and (ii) produce comparable data for other systems, which would be useful for the evaluation of Ag contamination at a larger scale.  相似文献   

The Wadden Sea in transition - consequences of sea level rise     

Johannes Becherer  Jacobus Hofstede  Ulf Gräwe  Kaveh Purkiani  Elisabeth Schulz  Hans Burchard 《Ocean Dynamics》2018,68(1):131-151

The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the future morphological development of the Wadden Sea (North Sea) is investigated by means of extensive process-resolving numerical simulations. A new sediment and morphodynamic module was implemented in the well-established 3D circulation model GETM. A number of different validations are presented, ranging from an idealized 1D channel over a semi-idealized 2D Wadden Sea basin to a fully coupled realistic 40-year hindcast without morphological amplification of the Sylt-Rømøbight, a semi-enclosed subsystem of the Wadden Sea. Based on the results of the hindcast, four distinct future scenarios covering the period 2010–2100 are simulated. While these scenarios differ in the strength of SLR and wind forcing, they also account for an expected increase of tidal range over the coming century. The results of the future projections indicate a transition from a tidal-flat-dominated system toward a lagoon-like system, in which large fractions of the Sylt-Rømøbight will remain permanently covered by water. This has potentially dramatic implications for the unique ecosystem of the Wadden Sea. Although the simulations also predict an increased accumulation of sediment in the back-barrier basin, this accumulation is far too weak to compensate for the rise in mean sea level.  相似文献   

Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions          下载免费PDF全文

Elisabeth Stephens  Paul Bates 《水文研究》2015,29(19):4264-4283

An ability to quantify the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation predictions is a requirement not only for guiding model development but also for their successful application. Probabilistic flood inundation predictions are usually produced by choosing a method of weighting the model parameter space, but previous study suggests that this choice leads to clear differences in inundation probabilities. This study aims to address the evaluation of the reliability of these probabilistic predictions. However, a lack of an adequate number of observations of flood inundation for a catchment limits the application of conventional methods of evaluating predictive reliability. Consequently, attempts have been made to assess the reliability of probabilistic predictions using multiple observations from a single flood event. Here, a LISFLOOD‐FP hydraulic model of an extreme (>1 in 1000 years) flood event in Cockermouth, UK, is constructed and calibrated using multiple performance measures from both peak flood wrack mark data and aerial photography captured post‐peak. These measures are used in weighting the parameter space to produce multiple probabilistic predictions for the event. Two methods of assessing the reliability of these probabilistic predictions using limited observations are utilized; an existing method assessing the binary pattern of flooding, and a method developed in this paper to assess predictions of water surface elevation. This study finds that the water surface elevation method has both a better diagnostic and discriminatory ability, but this result is likely to be sensitive to the unknown uncertainties in the upstream boundary condition. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to channel erosion uncertainty during extreme flooding          下载免费PDF全文

Jefferson S. Wong  Jim E. Freer  Paul D. Bates  David A. Sear  Elisabeth M. Stephens 《水文研究》2015,29(2):261-279

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilize the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross‐section geometry and channel long‐profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D–2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD‐FP) of the ~1 : 2000 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of simulated scenarios of channel erosional changes were constructed on the basis of a simple velocity‐based model of critical entrainment. A Monte‐Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of this channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected an approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion that enveloped observed erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long‐profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude of event modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead, morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel‐bed rivers such as the one used in this research. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Erratum to: Forest–water dynamics within a mountainous catchment in Austria     

Elisabeth Pötzelsberger  Hubert Hasenauer 《Natural Hazards》2015,77(3):2145-2145

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Spatial variability of hydrological processes and model structure diagnostics in a 50 km2 catchment          下载免费PDF全文

Hilary McMillan  Myriam Gueguen  Elisabeth Grimon  Ross Woods  Martyn Clark  David E. Rupp 《水文研究》2014,28(18):4896-4913

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Elastoplastic model with loading memory surfaces (LMS) for monotonic and cyclic behaviour of geomaterials     

Hervé di Benedetto  Matthieu Blanc  Samir Tiouajni  Alan Ezaoui 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2014,38(14):1477-1502

A new elastoplastic model called loading memory surface based on the critical state concept and the multi‐surface framework is proposed for geomaterials. The model uses a hypoelastic formulation and two plastic mechanisms. The formulations of the model are made in three‐dimensional stress–strain space and work under both monotonic and cyclic loadings. A newly introduced formalism makes it possible to obtain the cyclic response directly from the monotonic loading one. This formalism gives a three‐dimensional generalization of the well‐known Masing rule. The model has been validated against test results of Hostun sand under several conditions: monotonic and cyclic, drained and undrained, tests in compression and in extension, and at different confining pressures and different densities. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Early‐middle Holocene land snail shell stable isotope record from Grotta di Latronico 3 (southern Italy)     

André C. Colonese  Giovanni Zanchetta  Elisabeth Dotsika  Russell N. Drysdale  Anthony E. Fallick  Renata Grifoni Cremonesi  Giuseppe Manganelli 《第四纪科学杂志》2010,25(8):1347-1359

This paper compares stable isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) records of early–middle Holocene land snail shells from the archaeological deposits of Grotta di Latronico 3 (LTR3; southern Italy) with modern shell isotopic data. No substantial interspecific variability was observed in shell δ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸Os) of modern specimens (Pomatias elegans, Cornu aspersum, Eobania vermiculata, Helix ligata and Marmorana fuscolabiata). In contrast, interspecific shell δ¹³C (δ¹³Cs) variability was significant, probably due to different feeding behaviour among species. The δ¹⁸Os values of living land snails suggest that species hibernate for a long period during colder months, so that the signal of ¹⁸O‐depleted winter rainfall in their δ¹⁸Os is lost. This suggests that δ¹⁸Os and δ¹³Cs values of Pomatias elegans from this archaeological succession provide valuable clues for seasonal (spring–autumn) climatic conditions during the early–middle Holocene. The δ¹⁸Os values of fossil specimens are significantly lower than in modern shells and in agreement with other palaeoclimatic records, suggesting a substantial increase of precipitation and/or persistent changes in air mass source trajectories over this region between ca. 8.8 cal ka BP and 6.2–6.7 ka ago. The δ¹³Cs trend suggests a transition from a slightly ¹³C‐enriched to a ¹³C‐depleted diet between early and middle Holocene compared to present conditions. We postulate that this δ¹³Cs trend might reflect changes in the C3 vegetation community, potentially combined with other environmental factors such as regional moisture increase and the progressive decrease of atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献