Monitoring and prediction of land use/land cover changes using CA-Markov model: a case study of Ravansar County in Iran   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hazhir Karimi  Javad Jafarnezhad  Jabbar Khaledi  Parisa Ahmadi 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(19):592

Human‐induced land use/land cover (LULC) changes are among the most important processes that shape the dynamics of the earth’s surface. This phenomenon, which is occurring at an astonishing rate, and its consequential environmental impacts have become an important area of research for scientists.Therefore, a wide range of methods and models have been developed to detect and predict these alterations, among which cellular automata (CA) models such as the CA‐Markov model, due to their affinity to geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS), are appropriate for detailed resolution modelling and simulating dynamic spatial processes. In Iran, the district of Ravansar has undergone severe LULC changes recently, thus to take the necessary precautions, decision‐makers need to predict and determine the extent of these changes. In this study, using spatial analysis methods the LULC changes in Ravansar were investigated from 1992 to 2015. Subsequently, the CA‐Markov model was applied to simulate the spatial pattern changes of LULC until 2030. Our results indicated that from 1992 to 2015, this region has witnessed a noticeable increase in the areas of the built‐up and agricultural lands (both aquatic and non‐aquatic), resulting in the decrease of the gardens, range, and bare lands. The simulated LULC map showed that this trend will continue due to more urbanization and development of agricultural areas.  相似文献   

A comparison of remnants in noncommutative Bardeen black holes     

S. Hamid Mehdipour  M. H. Ahmadi 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2016,361(9):314

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Parametric uncertainty assessment of hydrological models: coupling UNEEC-P and a fuzzy general regression neural network   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Arman Ahmadi  Dimitri P. Solomatine 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(9):1080-1094

Due to the complicated nature of environmental processes, consideration of uncertainty is an important part of environmental modelling. In this paper, a new variant of the machine learning-based method for residual estimation and parametric model uncertainty is presented. This method is based on the UNEEC-P (UNcertainty Estimation based on local Errors and Clustering – Parameter) method, but instead of multilayer perceptron uses a “fuzzified” version of the general regression neural network (GRNN). Two hydrological models are chosen and the proposed method is used to evaluate their parametric uncertainty. The approach can be classified as a hybrid uncertainty estimation method, and is compared to the group method of data handling (GMDH) and ordinary kriging with linear external drift (OKLED) methods. It is shown that, in terms of inherent complexity, measured by Akaike information criterion (AIC), the proposed fuzzy GRNN method has advantages over other techniques, while its accuracy is comparable. Statistical metrics on verification datasets demonstrate the capability and appropriate efficiency of the proposed method to estimate the uncertainty of environmental models.  相似文献   

Issues in Eulerian–Lagrangian modeling of sediment transport under saltation regime     

Reza Barati  Seyed Ali Akbar Salehi Neyshabouri  Goodarz Ahmadi 《国际泥沙研究》2018,33(4):441-461

The saltation regime is very important for understanding the sediment transport mechanism. However,there is no consensus on a model for the saltation regime. This study answers several questions raised with respect to the Eulerian-Lagrangian modeling of sediment transport. The first question is why the previous saltation models that use different combinations of hydrodynamic forces yielded acceptable results? The second question is which shear lift model(i.e. a shear lift expression and its coefficient) is more appropriate? Another important question is which hydrodynamic forces have greater contributions to the saltation characteristics of a sediment particle? The last question is what are the contributions of the turbulence fluctuations as well as effects of using two-and three-dimensional(2 D and 3 D) models on the simulation results? In order to fairly answer these questions, a systematic study was done by considering different scenarios. The current study is the first attempt to clearly discuss these issues. A comprehensive 3 D saltation model for non-cohesive sediment was developed that includes all the hydrodynamic forces acting on the particle. The random nature of sediment transport was included using turbulent flow and bed-particle collision models. The eddy interaction model was applied to generate a3 D turbulent flow field. Bed-particle collisions were considered using the concept of a contact zone and a corresponding contact point. The validation of the model was done using the available experimental data for a wide range of sediment size(0.03 to 4.8 cm). For the first question, the results indicated that some of the hydrodynamic effects show opposing trends and some have negligible effects. With these opposing effects it is possible to adjust the coefficients of different models to achieve acceptable agreement with the same experimental data while omitting some aspects of the physics of the process. A suitable model for the shear lift force was developed by linking the lift coefficient to the drag coefficient and the contributions of the hydrodynamic forces and turbulence fluctuations as well as the consequences of using of 2 D and 3 D models were studied. The results indicate that the shear lift force and turbulent flow fluctuations are important factors for the saltation of both sand and gravel, and they cannot be ignored.  相似文献   

Stress softening behaviour of HDNR bearings: modelling and influence on the seismic response of isolated structures          下载免费PDF全文

Enrico Tubaldi  Laura Ragni  Andrea Dall'Asta  Hamid Ahmadi  Alan Muhr 《地震工程与结构动力学》2017,46(12):2033-2054

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Comparison of artificial neural network and multivariate linear regression methods for estimation of daily soil temperature in an arid region   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Hossein Tabari  Ali-Akbar Sabziparvar  Mohammad Ahmadi 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2011,110(3-4):135-142

Soil temperature (T _S) strongly influences a wide range of biotic and abiotic processes. As an alternative to direct measurement, indirect determination of T _S from meteorological parameters has been the focus of attention of environmental researchers. The main purpose of this study was to estimate daily T _S at six depths (5, 10, 20, 30, 50 and 100?cm) by using a multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network (ANN) model and a multivariate linear regression (MLR) method in an arid region of Iran. Mean daily meteorological parameters including air temperature (T _a), solar radiation (R _S), relative humidity (RH) and precipitation (P) were used as input data to the ANN and MLR models. The model results of the MLR model were compared to those of ANN. The accuracy of the predictions was evaluated by the correlation coefficient (r), the root mean-square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) between the measured and predicted T _S values. The results showed that the ANN method forecasts were superior to the corresponding values obtained by the MLR model. The regression analysis indicated that T _a, RH, R _S and P were reasonably correlated with T _S at various depths, but the most effective parameters influencing T _S at different depths were T _a and RH.  相似文献   

A hybrid distinct element–boundary element approach for seismic analysis of cracked concrete gravity dam–reservoir systems     

M. Mirzayee  N. KhajiM.T. Ahmadi 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2011

This paper proposes a new algorithm for modeling the nonlinear seismic behavior of fractured concrete gravity dams considering dam–reservoir interaction effects. In this algorithm, the cracked concrete gravity dam is modeled by distinct element (DE) method, which has been widely used for the analysis of blocky media. Dynamic response of the reservoir is obtained using boundary element (BE) method. Formulation and various computational aspects of the proposed staggered hybrid approach are thoroughly discussed. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study of a hybrid DE–BE approach for seismic analysis of cracked gravity dam–reservoir systems. The validity of the algorithm is discussed by developing a two-dimensional computer code and comparing results obtained from the proposed hybrid DE–BE approach with those reported in the literature. For this purpose, a few problems of seismic excitations in frequency- and time-domains, are presented using the proposed approach. Present results agree well with the results from other numerical methods. Furthermore, the cracked Koyna Dam is analyzed, including dam–reservoir interaction effects with focus on the nonlinear behavior due to its top profile crack. Results of the present study are compared to available results in the literature in which the dam–reservoir interaction were simplified by added masses. It is shown that the nonlinear analysis that includes dam–reservoir interaction gives downstream sliding and rocking response patterns that are somehow different from that of the case when the dam–reservoir interaction is approximated employing added masses.  相似文献   

Automatic urban building boundary extraction from high resolution aerial images using an innovative model of active contours     

Salman Ahmadi  M.J. Valadan Zoej  Hamid Ebadi  Hamid Abrishami Moghaddam  Ali Mohammadzadeh 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2010

To present a new method for building boundary detection and extraction based on the active contour model, is the main objective of this research. Classical models of this type are associated with several shortcomings; they require extensive initialization, they are sensitive to noise, and adjustment issues often become problematic with complex images. In this research a new model of active contours has been proposed that is optimized for the automatic building extraction. This new active contour model, in comparison to the classical ones, can detect and extract the building boundaries more accurately, and is capable of avoiding detection of the boundaries of features in the neighborhood of buildings such as streets and trees. Finally, the detected building boundaries are generalized to obtain a regular shape for building boundaries. Tests with our proposed model demonstrate excellent accuracy in terms of building boundary extraction. However, due to the radiometric similarity between building roofs and the image background, our system fails to recognize a few buildings.  相似文献   

SWAT‐simulated hydrological impact of land‐use change in the Zanjanrood basin,Northwest Iran     

Golaleh Ghaffari  Saskia Keesstra  Jamal Ghodousi  Hassan Ahmadi 《水文研究》2010,24(7):892-903

Understanding the impacts of land‐use changes on hydrology at the watershed scale can facilitate development of sustainable water resource strategies. This paper investigates the hydrological effects of land‐use change in Zanjanrood basin, Iran. The water balance was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (AVSWAT2000). Model calibration and uncertainty analysis were performed with sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI‐2). Simulation results from January 1998 to December 2002 were used for parameter calibration, and then the model was validated for the period of January 2003 to December 2004. The predicted monthly streamflow matched the observed values: during calibration the correlation coefficient was 0·86 and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient 0·79, compared with 0·80 and 0·79, respectively, during validation. The model was used to simulate the main components of the hydrological cycle, in order to study the effects of land‐use changes in 1967, 1994 and 2007. The study reveals that during 1967 a 34·5% decrease of grassland with concurrent increases of shrubland (13·9%), rain‐fed agriculture (12·1%), bare ground (5·5%) irrigated agriculture (2·2%), and urban area (0·7%) led to a 33% increase in the amount of surface runoff and a 22% decrease in the groundwater recharge. Furthermore, the area of sub‐basins that was influenced by high runoff (14–28 mm) increased. The results indicate that the hydrological response to overgrazing and the replacing of rangelands (grassland and shrubland) with rain‐fed agriculture and bare ground (badlands) is nonlinear and exhibits a threshold effect. The runoff rises dramatically when more than 60% of the rangeland is removed. For groundwater this threshold lies at an 80% decrease in rangeland. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Input data selection for solar radiation estimation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Azadeh Ahmadi  Dawei Han  Mohammad Karamouz  Renji Remesan 《水文研究》2009,23(19):2754-2764

Model input data selection is a complicated process, especially for non‐linear dynamic systems. The questions on which inputs should be used and how long the training data should be for model development have been hard to solve in practice. Despite the importance of this subject, there have been insufficient reports in the published literature about inter‐comparison between different model input data selection techniques. In this study, several methods (i.e. the Gamma test, entropy theory, AIC (Akaike's information criterion)/BIC (Bayesian information criterion) have been explored with the aid of non‐linear models of LLR (local linear regression) and ANN (artificial neural networks). The methodology is tested in estimation of solar radiation in the Brue Catchment of England. It has been found that the conventional model selection tools such as AIC/BIC failed to demonstrate their functionality. Although the entropy theory is quite powerful and efficient to compute, it failed to pick up the best input combinations. On the other hand, it is very encouraging to find that the new Gamma test was able to choose the best input selection. However, it is surprising to note that the Gamma test significantly underestimated the required training data while the entropy theory did a better job in this aspect. This is the first study to compare the performance of those techniques for model input selections and still there are many unsolved puzzles. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献