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A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge 下载免费PDF全文
Yan Liu Yonghong Hao Yonghui Fan Tongke Wang Xueli Huo Youcun Liu Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258
The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Astronomy Reports - A review of the achievements of space geodesy in the 21st century, represented by the successful realization of the CHAMP, GOCE, and GRACE missions, is presented. The main... 相似文献
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Yu-Li Wang Liang-Cheng Chang Fei Liu Yen-Te Ho Tzu Bin Wang Tian-Chyi Jim Yeh Jui-Pin Tsai 《Ground water》2022,60(4):518-529
Groundwater responses measured from multiple wells at different depths are essential for delineating the aquifer heterogeneity using hydraulic tomography (HT). In general, conducting HT requires many wells because traditional well monitoring is usually partially open at a specific depth interval or is fully penetrating. Accordingly, conducting an HT survey is typically costly and time-consuming. To tackle these issues, a new multi-level monitoring system (MLMS) for the HT survey was developed using the fiber Bragg grating (FBG) technique. This FBG MLMS could collect the depth-discrete groundwater observations from a fully penetrated 2-inch well. Three field campaigns were conducted to validate the capability of the FBG MLMS for HT surveys. The results show that the accuracy and stability of this MLMS are reliable and that FBG MLMS is beneficial for conducting an HT survey. Specifically, compared to the traditional monitoring well in an injection event, this FBG MLMS can concurrently cause an increase in the number of cross-hole tests several times and collect many more head observations than the standard methods, resulting in the observed flow fields efficiently reaching ergodic conditions and effectively improving the accuracy of the estimated hydraulic heterogeneity. Therefore, the FBG MLMS could be an alternative MLMS for efficiently and economically conducting an HT survey. 相似文献
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Zaiyong Zhang Wenke Wang Chengcheng Gong Zhoufeng Wang Lei Duan Tian‐chyi Jim Yeh Peiyuan Yu 《水文研究》2019,33(9):1338-1348
In cold climates, the process of freezing–thawing significantly affects the ground surface heat balance and water balance. To better understand the mechanism of evaporation from seasonally frozen soils, we performed field experiments at different water table depths on vegetated and bare ground in a semiarid region in China. Soil moisture and temperature, air temperature, precipitation, and water table depths were measured over a 5‐month period (November 1, 2016, to March 14, 2017). The evaporation, which was calculated by a mass balance method, was high in the periods of thawing and low in the periods of freezing. Increased water table depth in the freezing period led to high soil moisture in the upper soil layer, whereas lower initial groundwater levels during freezing–thawing decreased the cumulative evaporation. The extent of evaporation from the bare ground was the same in summer as in winter. These results indicate that a noteworthy amount of evaporation from the bare ground is present during freezing–thawing. Finally, the roots of Salix psammophila could increase the soil temperature. This study presents an insight into the joint effects of soil moisture, temperature, ground vegetation, and water table depths on the evaporation from seasonally frozen soils. Furthermore, it also has important implications for water management in seasonally frozen areas. 相似文献
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Jing Wu Jian Yin Yonghong Hao Yan Liu Yonghui Fan Xueli Huo Youcun Liu Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2015,29(13):2855-2866
The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m3/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m3/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m3/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m3/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m3/s in 2013, 0.67 m3/s in 2014 and 0.73 m3/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
Because a conventional isolation system with constant isolation frequency is usually a long‐period dynamic system, its seismic response is likely to be amplified in earthquakes with strong long‐period wave components, such as near‐fault ground motions. Seismic isolators with variable mechanical properties may provide a promising solution to alleviate this problem. To this end, in this work sliding isolators with variable curvature (SIVC) were studied experimentally. An SIVC isolator is similar to a friction pendulum system (FPS) isolator, except that its sliding surface has variable curvature rather being spherical. As a result, the SIVC's isolation stiffness that is proportional to the curvature becomes a function of the isolator displacement. By appropriately designing the geometry of the sliding surface, the SIVC is able to possess favorable hysteretic behavior. In order to prove the applicability of the SIVC concept, several prototype SIVC isolators, whose sliding surfaces are defined by a sixth‐order polynomial function, were fabricated and tested in this study. A cyclic element test on the prototype SIVC isolators and a shaking table test on an SIVC isolated steel frame were all conducted. The results of both tests have verified that the prototype SIVC isolators do indeed have the hysteretic property of variable stiffness as prescribed by the derived formulas in this study. Moreover, it is also demonstrated that the proposed SIVC is able to effectively reduce the isolator drift in a near‐fault earthquake with strong long‐period components, as compared with that of an FPS system with the same friction coefficient. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
R. M. Palin M. P. Searle D. J. Waters R. R. Parrish N. M. W. Roberts M. S. A. Horstwood M.‐W. Yeh S.‐L. Chung T. T. Anh 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2013,31(4):359-387
The Red River shear zone (RRSZ) is a major left‐lateral strike‐slip shear zone, containing a ductilely deformed metamorphic core bounded by brittle strike‐slip and normal faults, which stretches for >1000 km from Tibet through Yunnan and North Vietnam to the South China Sea. The RRSZ exposes four high‐grade metamorphic core complexes along its length. Various lithologies from the southernmost core complex, the Day Nui Con Voi (DNCV), North Vietnam, provide new constraints on the tectonic and metamorphic evolution of this region prior to and following the initial India–Asia collision. Analysis of a weakly deformed anatectic paragneiss using P–T pseudosections constructed in the MnO–Na2O–CaO–K2O–FeO–MgO–Al2O3–SiO2–H2O–TiO2–O (MnNCKFMASHTO) system provides prograde, peak and retrograde metamorphic conditions, and in situ U–Th–Pb geochronology of metamorphic monazite yields texturally controlled age constraints. Tertiary metamorphism and deformation, overprinting earlier Triassic metamorphism associated with the Indosinian orogeny and possible Cretaceous metamorphism, are characterized by peak metamorphic conditions of ~805 °C and ~8.5 kbar between c. 38 and 34 Ma. Exhumation occurred along a steep retrograde P–T path with final melt crystallizing at the solidus at ≥~5.5 kbar at ~790 °C. Further exhumation at ~640–700 °C and ~4–5 kbar at c. 31 Ma occurred at subsolidus conditions. U–Pb geochronological analysis of monazite from a strongly deformed pre‐kinematic granite dyke from the flank of the DNCV provides further evidence for exhumation at this time. Magmatic grains suggest initial emplacement at 66.0 ± 1.0 Ma prior to the India–Asia collision, whereas grains with metamorphic characteristics indicate later growth at 30.6 ± 0.4 Ma. Monazite grains from a cross‐cutting post‐kinematic dyke within the core of the DNCV antiform provide a minimum age constraint of 25.2 ± 1.4 Ma for the termination of fabric development. A separate and significant episode of monazite growth at c. 83–69 Ma is suggested to be the result of fluid‐assisted recrystallization following the emplacement of magmatic units. 相似文献