A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Carlo Meletti  Fabrizio Galadini  Gianluca Valensise  Massimiliano Stucchi  Roberto Basili  Salvatore Barba  Gianfranco Vannucci  Enzo Boschi 《Tectonophysics》2008,450(1-4):85-108

We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with M_w > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with M_w up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.  相似文献   

Feeding preferences of herring (Clupea harengus) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus) in the southern Baltic Sea     

Casini  Michele; Cardinale  Massimiliano; Arrhenius  Fredrik 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2004,61(8):1267-1277

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A New Method for the Estimation of Avalanche Distance Exceeded Probabilities     

Massimiliano Barbolini  Federica Cappabianca  Fabrizio Savi 《Surveys in Geophysics》2003,24(5-6):587-601

A crucial point in any methodology for avalanche hazard assessment is the evaluation of avalanche distance exceeded probability, i.e., the annual probability that any assigned location along a given path is reached or exceeded by an avalanche. Typically this problem is faced by estimating the snow volume in the starting zone that is likely to accumulate an average every T years by statistical analysis of snowfall record, and then using this volume as input to an appropriately calibrated avalanche dynamics model to determine the runout distancesfor this design event. This methodology identifies the areas that canbe affected by an avalanche for the considered value of the return period (i.e. the average interval of time for a certain event to repeat itself), ¯T. However, it does not allow us to evaluate the actual avalanche encounter probability for any given point in the runout zone. In the present work this probability is computed by numerical integration of the expression P(x) = ∫₀ ^∞ P^*(V)f(V) dV, where f is the probabilitydensity function (PDF) of the avalanche release volume V, and P^* is the probability of the point x being reached or passed by an avalanche if the release volume is V; this latter probability is calculated by avalanche dynamics simulations. The procedure is implemented using a one-dimensional hydraulic-continuum avalanche dynamic model, calibrated on data from different Italian Alpine ranges, and is applied to a real world hazard mapping problem.  相似文献   

LIDAR Data Filtering and DTM Interpolation Within GRASS   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Maria A Brovelli  Massimiliano Cannata  Ulisse M Longoni 《Transactions in GIS》2004,8(2):155-174

LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) is one of the most recent technologies in surveying and mapping. LIDAR is based on the combination of three different data collection tools: a laser scanner mounted on an aircraft, a Global Positioning System (GPS) used in phase differential kinematic modality to provide the sensor position and an Inertial Navigation System (INS) to provide the orientation. The laser sends towards the ground an infrared signal, which is reflected back to the sensor. The time employed by the signal, given the aircraft position and attitude, allows computation of the earth point elevation. In standard conditions, taking into account the flight (speed 200–250 km/hour, altitude 500–2,000 m) and sensor characteristics (scan angle ± 10–20 degrees, emission rate 2,000–50,000 pulses per second), earth elevations are collected within a density of one point every 0.5–3 m. The technology allows us therefore to obtain very accurate (5–20 cm) and high resolution Digital Surface Models (DSM). For many applications, the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) is needed: we have to automatically detect and discard from the previous DSM all the features (buildings, trees, etc.) present on the terrain. This paper describes a procedure that has been implemented within GRASS to construct DTMs from LIDAR source data.  相似文献   

Exhumation patterns along shallow low‐angle normal faults: an example from the Altotiberina active fault system (Northern Apennines,Italy)          下载免费PDF全文

Chiara Caricchi  Luca Aldega  Massimiliano R. Barchi  Sveva Corrado  Domenico Grigo  Francesco Mirabella  Massimiliano Zattin 《地学学报》2015,27(4):312-321

A multi‐method approach (palaeothermal and thermochronological analyses; thermal modelling) is applied to reconstruct the exhumation history of the Altotiberina Fault (ATF), a representative example of crustal‐scale active low‐angle normal faulting in the Northern Apennines (Italy). Thermal maturity and thermochronological data yield similar burial histories but different exhumation patterns for the sedimentary successions in the hangingwall and the footwall of the ATF. Since 3.8 Ma, the ATF footwall has exhumed at rates of 0.90 mm a^?1. Exhumation led to bending and deactivation of the ATF uppermost portion as a result of tectonic unloading and isostatic adjustment, followed by migration of extension and the development of a set of domino‐like, east‐dipping normal faults, rooting on the buried portion of the ATF. ATF activity and isostatic rebound exhumed Triassic rock units from depths of about 4 km. We suggest that isostatic instability is accommodated at shallow crustal levels, in a similar way to what is observed on larger structures at mid‐low crustal levels.  相似文献   

A novel methodological approach for land subsidence prediction through data assimilation techniques     

Gazzola  Laura  Ferronato  Massimiliano  Frigo  Matteo  Janna  Carlo  Teatini  Pietro  Zoccarato  Claudia  Antonelli  Massimo  Corradi  Anna  Dacome  Maria Carolina  Mantica  Stefano 《Computational Geosciences》2021,25(5):1731-1750

Computational Geosciences - Anthropogenic land subsidence can be evaluated and predicted by numerical models, which are often built over deterministic analyses. However, uncertainties and...  相似文献   

Expected loss‐based alarm threshold set for earthquake early warning systems     

Iunio Iervolino  Massimiliano Giorgio  Gaetano Manfredi 《地震工程与结构动力学》2007,36(9):1151-1168

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) seem to have potential as tools for real‐time seismic risk management and mitigation. In fact, although the evacuation of buildings requires warning time not available in many urbanized areas threatened by seismic hazard, they may still be used for the real‐time protection of critical facilities using automatic systems in order to reduce the losses subsequent to a catastrophic event. This is possible due to the real‐time seismology, which consists of methods and procedures for the rapid estimation of earthquake features, as magnitude and location, based on measurements made on the first seconds of the P‐waves. An earthquake engineering application of earthquake early warning (EEW) may be intended as a system able to issue the alarm, if some recorded parameter exceeds a given threshold, to activate risk mitigation actions before the quake strikes at a site of interest. Feasibility analysis and design of such EEWS require the assessment of the expected loss reduction due to the security action and set of the alarm threshold. In this paper a procedure to carry out these tasks in the performance‐based earthquake engineering probabilistic framework is proposed. A merely illustrative example refers to a simple structure assumed to be a classroom. Structural damage and non‐structural collapses are considered; the security action is to shelter occupants below the desks. The cost due to a false alarm is assumed to be related to the interruption of didactic activities. Results show how the comparison of the expected losses, for the alarm‐issuance and non‐issuance cases, allows setting the alarm threshold on a quantitative and consistent basis, and how it may be a tool for the design of engineering applications of EEW. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

人为因素导致的地面沉降(英文)   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Giuseppe GAMBOLATI Pietro TEATINI Massimiliano FERRONATO 《地学前缘》2006,13(1):160-178

天然气、石油、地下水、地热热水和卤水等流体运移出地下储存地层时,地层耗尽了流体而产生压缩变形,这些变形传递到地表表面就形成了人为的地面沉降。在本文中:(1)列举了世界上主要的地面沉降区域;(2)论述了引发地面沉降的力学机制,这些可以量测的地面沉降发生在地下含水层体系、天然气气田和石油油田之上;(3)描述了目前可以用于地面沉降测量和岩石变形原位测试的技术手段;(4)简要介绍了几个地面沉降预测的数值模型;(5)说明了用于控制地面沉降发展和减轻相关环境影响的几种防治措施。  相似文献   

Raman microspectroscopy: A non-destructive tool for routine calibration of apatite crystallographic structure for fission-track analyses     

Massimiliano Zattin  Danilo Bersani  Andrew Carter 《Chemical Geology》2007,240(3-4):197-204

Compositional control on the annealing kinetics of fission-tracks (FT) in apatite requires routine measurement of sample grain composition. However, for practical reasons the bulk composition of analysed grains is not routinely measured and instead grain chlorine content or etch-pit dimensions are used to characterise a samples annealing behaviour. A more desirable approach is to measure crystallographic parameters (i.e. unit cell dimension) of a grain as these represent the summed effect of all substitutions and crystal defects. We show how Raman microspectrometry can be used as a routine non-destructive tool to obtain rapid measurement of the crystallographic structure of apatite grains etched for FT analysis. Variations of unit cell parameter a are found to correspond to a systematic variation of Raman shift in the range of 452–440 cm^− 1 for measurements made on c-parallel sections of apatite where the direction of the polarized incident beam is parallel to the c axis.  相似文献   

Parameterisation of the Planetary Boundary Layer for Diagnostic Wind Models     

Massimiliano Burlando  Emilia Georgieva  Corrado F. Ratto 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2007,125(2):389-397

The planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parameterization is a key issue for the definition of initial wind flow fields in diagnostic models. However, PBL theories usually treat separately stable, neutral, and convective stability conditions, so that their implementation in diagnostic wind models is not straightforward. In the present paper, an attempt is made to adopt a comprehensive PBL parameterisation, covering stable/neutral and unstable atmospheric conditions, which appears suitable to diagnostic models. This parameterisation is implemented into our diagnostic mass-consistent code. A validation of the consistency between the implemented PBL parameterisations has been checked through an analysis of the sensitivity of the vertical wind profiles to atmospheric stability.  相似文献