Over the last few years, the impacts of wildlife on agriculture have constantly been growing, in particular in areas close to woodland and in hunting ban zones (“refuge effect”). Public administrations have difficulty in meeting the growing requests for crop damage compensation. The development of appropriate measures to control this trend—starting from the understanding of the dynamics concerned—is crucial. The aim of this study was, therefore, to analyze damage at regional scale and define common local actions. In particular, the study involved different steps that define a spatial-based classification of risk levels, integrating statistical methods (principal component analysis and receiver operating characteristic) with multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) in a geographic information system (GIS). It turns out that, in the study area, the very high-risk zones affect 8.83% of used agricultural areas; about 97% of them concentrated in the first 400 m from the most suitable habitats. A selected cluster of 11 test areas within these zones allowed us to assess the cost-effectiveness of integrated prevention and control actions (IPCA) with respect to the compensation of the damage. The analysis shows cost of IPCA to be nearly twice the actual cost incurred by the public administration to compensate partially the damage. The comparison with the estimated damage shows the overall economic convenience of the proposed investment with significant differences depending on the areas. Thus, we suggest reaching an “agro-ecological” balance starting from actions on specific areas; if they produce the desired effects, they could be progressively extended to other areas with gradual investments (adaptive management).
Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling. 相似文献
The volcanic rocks of the Colíder and Roosevelt formations are extensively exposed in the south-central portion of the Amazonian Craton where effusive and pyroclastic rocks have been mapped. Both units, topped by chemical sediments and oceanic facies as rhyolite and andesite lavas, rhyodacite, and porphyritic dacite, with frequent intercalations of pyroclastic and epiclastic deposits. Whole-rock geochemistry for 55 samples of rhyolitic to andesitic composition suggests the involvement of fertile mantle-derived components with E-MORB to OIB compositions. The analyzed rocks display calc-alkaline to shoshonitic affinity consistent with generation related to an active continental margin. The whole-rock Sm-Nd isotope data from selected felsic volcanic rocks of the Colíder and Roosevelt formations yield negative initial εNd values between –3 and –9, indicating the predominantly crustal nature of the parental magmas with early Archean to late Paleoproterozoic (ca. 2.5–2.0 Ga) depleted mantle model ages.
The Italian “Guidelines for the seismic risk classification of constructions” approved in February 2017 define the technical principles for exploiting tax deductions with respect to seismic strengthening interventions on existing buildings (Sismabonus). Tax deductions represent a unique opportunity to improve the seismic safety of the existing Italian building stock. The guidelines are very simple and allow practitioners to deal with the sophisticated concepts behind modern seismic design, such as expected annual losses (EAL) and repair costs (expressed as a fraction of the Reconstruction Cost: %RC). The seismic risk classes of buildings and the class upgrade due to strengthening interventions can be assessed using the principles included in the guidelines. The seismic risk class is the minimum between the class defined by the building safety index at the ultimate limit state and the one related to the EAL. The latter class depends on the area under the curve of the expected losses, which is easily obtained by computing the safety index converted in the return period (annual frequency) at different limit states and the relevant %RC. This paper illustrates the technical principles at the base of the guidelines and the procedure used to calibrate the repair costs associated with the different limit states using the actual repair costs monitored in the reconstruction process following recent Italian earthquakes. Finally, simple tools to estimate the cost of the strengthening interventions to improve the seismic capacity at the life-safety limit states are provided. 相似文献
On April 6, 2009, the town of L’Aquila in the Abruzzo region (central Italy) was struck by a seismic event at 01:32 (UTC),
of magnitude MW = 6.3. The mainshock was followed by a long period of intense seismic activity and within seven days after the mainshock
there were seven events of magnitude MW ≥ 5 that occurred from April 6 to April 13. This long seismic sequence was characterized by a complex rupture mechanism that
involved two major normal faults of the central Apennines: the Paganica and the Gorzano faults. The strong-motions of the
mainshock were recorded by 64 stations of the Italian Strong-motion Network (RAN) operated by the National Civil Protection
Department (DPC). Six stations of a local strong-motion array were working in NW L’Aquila suburb area. One of them, located
at about 6 km from the Paganica fault surface tip-line, set up in trigger mode, recorded continuously for more than 20 min
the mainshock and the aftershocks. Besides the mainshock, the RAN stations recorded in total 78 foreshocks and aftershocks
of ML ≥ 3.5, during the period from January to December 2009. The corresponding waveforms provide the most extensive digital strong
ground motion data set ever recorded in Italy. Moreover, the 48 three-component observations of events of magnitude MW ≥ 5, recorded at a distance less than 15 km from each of the major involved faults, provide a significant increasing of near-field
records available for the Italian territory. Six days after the mainshock, the strong-motion dataset, referred to preliminary
locations of the events with ML ≥ 4.0, was made available on the DPC web site () and at the same time it was delivered to the ITACA database (). This dataset has been used by many authors in scientific papers and by engineers, geophysicists and geologists for professional
technical works. In this paper, the present-day available strong-motion signals from the L’Aquila sequence and the performance
of the Italian strong-motion network in terms of the number and quality of recorded data, the geometry and data transmission
system are described. In addition the role of the temporary network that represents an extension of the permanent Italian
strong-motion network, supporting the emergency response by civil protection authorities and improving the network coverage
has been evaluated. 相似文献
Though ubiquitous in the global oceans, double diffusive mixing has been largely ignored or poorly represented in the models of turbulent mixing in the ocean and in 3-D ocean models, until recently. Salt fingers occur in the interior of many marginal seas and ocean basins, the Tyrrhenian Sea and the subtropical Atlantic being two examples. Diffusive convection type of double diffusion occurs in the upper layers of many sub-polar seas and polar oceans due to cold melt water from sea ice. Consequently, it is important to be able to properly parameterize double diffusive mixing in basin scale and global ocean models, so that the water mass structure in the interior of the ocean can be properly simulated. This note describes a model for double diffusive mixing in the presence of background shear, based on Mellor–Yamada type second moment closure, more specifically Kantha, 2003, Kantha and Clayson, 2004 second moment closure models of resulting turbulence, following Canuto et al. (2008a) but employing a different strategy for modeling the pertinent terms in the second moment equations. The resulting model is suitable for inclusion in ocean general circulation models. 相似文献