Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactions between human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper,a new human–earth system model,BNUHESM1.0,constructed by combining the economic and climate damage components of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate Change and Economy to the BNU-ESM model,is introduced. The ability of BNU-HESM1.0 in simulating the global CO2 concentration and surface temperature is also evaluated. We find that,compared to observation,BNU-HESM1.0underestimates the global CO2 concentration and its rising trend during 1965–2005,due to the uncertainty in the economic components. However,the surface temperature simulated by BNU-HESM1.0 is much closer to observation,resulting from the overestimates of surface temperature by the original BNU-ESM model. The uncertainty of BNU-ESM falls within the range of present earth system uncertainty,so it is the economic and climate damage component of BNU-HESM1.0 that needs to be improved through further study. However,the main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to investigate the complex relationship between human activity and the earth system. It is hoped that it will inspire further ideas that prove valuable in guiding human activities appropriate for a sustainable future climate. 相似文献
The ultraslow-spreading Southwest Indian Ridge(SWIR) to the east of the Melville fracture zone is characterized by very low melt supply and intensive tectonic activity. Due to its weak thermal budget and extremely slow spreading rate, the easternmost SWIR was considered to be devoid of hydrothermal activity until the discovery of the inactive Mt. Jourdanne hydrothermal field(27°51′S, 63°56′E) in 1998. During the COMRA DY115-20 cruise in2009, two additional hydrothermal fields(i.e., the Tiancheng(27°51′S, 63°55′E) and Tianzuo(27°57′S, 63°32′E)fields) were discovered. Further detailed investigations of these two hydrothermal sites were conducted by Chinese manned submersible Jiaolong in 2014–2015. The Tiancheng filed can be characterized as a lowtemperature(up to 13.2°C) diffuse flow hydrothermal field, and is hosted by fractured basalts with hydrothermal fauna widespread on the seafloor. The Tianzuo hydrothermal field is an inactive sulfide field, which is hosted by ultramafic rocks and controlled by detachment fault. The discovery of the three hydrothermal fields around Segment #11 which receives more melt than the regional average, provided evidence for local enhanced magmatism providing heat source to drive hydrothermal circulation. We further imply that hydrothermal activity and sulfide deposits may be rather promising along the easternmost SWIR. 相似文献
With the depletion of mineral resources on land, seafloor massive sulfide deposits have the potential to become as important for exploration, development and mining as those on land. However, it is difficult to investigate the ocean environment where seafloor massive sulfide deposits are located. Thus, improving prospecting efficiency by reducing the exploration search space through mineral prospectivity mapping (MPM) is desirable. MPM has been used in the exploration for seafloor deposits on regional scales, e.g., the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and Arctic Ridge. However, studies of MPM on ultraslow-spreading ridges on segment scales to aid exploration for seafloor massive sulfide have not been carried out to date. Here, data of water depth, geology and hydrothermal plume anomalies were analyzed and the weights-of-evidence method was used to study the metallogenic regularity and to predict the potential area for seafloor massive sulfide exploration in 48.7°–50.5° E segments on the ultraslow spreading Southwest Indian Ridge. Based on spatial analysis, 11 predictive maps were selected to establish a mineral potential model. Weight values indicate that the location of seafloor massive sulfide deposits is correlated mainly with mode-E faults and oceanic crust thickness in the study area, which correspond with documented ore-controlling factors on other studied ultraslow-spreading ridges. In addition, the detachment fault and ridge axis, which reflect the deep hydrothermal circulation channel and magmatic activities, also play an important role. Based on the posterior probability values, 3 level A, 2 level B and 2 level C areas were identified as targets for further study. The MPM results were helpful for narrowing the search space and have implications for investigating and evaluating seafloor massive sulfide resources in the study area and on other ultraslow-spreading ridges.
