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1.
We assess the effects of prospective climate change until 2100 on water management of two major reservoirs of Iran, namely, Dez (3.34 × 109 m3) and Alavian (6 × 107 m3). We tune the Poly‐Hydro model suited for simulation of hydrological cycle in high altitude snow‐fed catchments. We assess optimal operation rules (ORs) for the reservoirs using three algorithms under dynamic and static operation and linear and non‐linear decision rules during control run (1990–2010 for Dez and 2000–2010 for Alavian). We use projected climate scenarios (plus statistical downscaling) from three general circulation models, EC‐Earth, CCSM4, and ECHAM6, and three emission scenarios, or representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for a grand total of nine scenarios, to mimic evolution of the hydrological cycle under future climate until 2100. We subsequently test the ORs under the future hydrological scenarios (at half century and end of century) and the need for reoptimization. Poly‐Hydro model when benchmarked against historical data well mimics the hydrological budget of both catchments, including the main processes of evapotranspiration and streamflows. Teaching–learning‐based optimization delivers the best performance in both reservoirs according to objective scores and is used for future operation. Our projections in Dez catchment depict decreased precipitation along the XXI century, with ?1% on average (of the nine scenarios) at half century and ?6% at the end of century, with changes in streamflows on average ?7% yearly and ?13% yearly, respectively. In Alavian, precipitation would decrease by ?10% on average at half century and ?13% at the end of century, with streamflows ?14% yearly and ?18% yearly, respectively. Under the projected future hydrology, reservoirs' operation would provide lower performance (i.e., larger lack of water) than now, especially for Alavian dam. Our results provide evidence of potentially decreasing water availability and less effective water management in water stressed areas like Northern Iran here during this century.  相似文献   
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Regional bivariate modeling of droughts using L-comoments and copulas   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The regional bivariate modeling of drought characteristics using the copulas provides valuable information for water resources management and drought risk assessment. The regional frequency analysis (RFA) can specify the similar sites within a region using L-comoments approach. One of the important steps in the RFA is estimating regional parameters of the copula function. In the present study, an optimization-based method along with the adjusted charged system search are introduced and applied to estimate the regional parameters of the copula models. The capability of the proposed methodology is illustrated by copula functions on drought events. Three commonly used copulas containing Clayton, Frank and Gumbel are employed to derive the joint distribution of drought severity and duration. The result of the new method are compared to the method of moments and after applying several goodness-of-fit tests, the results indicate that the new method provides higher accuracy than the classic one. Furthermore, the results of the upper tail dependence coefficient indicate that the Gumbel copula is the best-fitted copula among the other ones for modeling drought characteristics.  相似文献   
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A transversely isotropic material in the sense of Green is considered. Using a series of potential functions proposed in [Eskandari-Ghadi M. A complete solution of the wave equations for transversely isotropic media. J Elasticity 2005; 81:1–19], the solutions of the transient wave equations within a half-space under surface load are obtained in the Laplace–Hankel domain for axisymmetric problems. The solutions are investigated in detail in the special case of a surface point force pulse varying with time as Heaviside function. Using Cagniard–De Hoop method, the inverse Laplace transform and inverse Hankel transform of the solutions are then obtained in the form of integrals with finite limits. For validity of the analytical results, the final formulations for surface waves are degenerated for an isotropic material and compared with the existing formulation obtained by Pekeris [The seismic surface pulse. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 1955;41:469–80], to show that they are exactly the same. The numerical evaluations of the integrals for some transversely isotropic materials as well as an isotropic one are obtained. The present approach is then numerically verified by comparing a particular case of displacements for the surface of an isotropic half-space subjected to a point load of Heaviside function with the solutions obtained by Pekeris [The seismic surface pulse. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 1955;41:469–80]. In addition, the wave equations for the mentioned medium are obtained on the vertical line directly under the applied surface load. The final formulations are degenerated for an isotropic material and compared with the existing formulation given in Graff [Wave motion in elastic solids. New York: Dover Publications Inc; 1975 [New Ed edition, November 1991]], to show that they are also exactly the same. Then equations are presented in graphical forms using an appropriate numerical evaluation.  相似文献   
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The Global Geopotential Models (GGMs) are very significant because of their usefulness in determination of the parameters like geoidal undulations, height anomalies, gravity anomalies, and so on. In this paper, first, we review the calculation of such parameters and then present the GGMCalc software, which is prepared in Fortran 95 under GNU/Linux Operating System. This software is capable of using the files presented by the International Center for Global Earth Models (ICGEM) directly without need to apply any changes on them. The software is completely structural and user friendly and could be used conveniently for academic purposes.  相似文献   
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Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) digital data acquired in the fall of 1988 and digital elevation model (DEM) data were evaluated for use in characterizing the spatial distribution of defoliation conditions within the boreal montane spruce‐fir ecosystem in the Black Mountains (Mtns.) of North Carolina. Correlation coefficients between the TM waveband data and field estimates of defoliation taken from 22 one hectare field plots were low (0.10 to ‐0.54). TM band four (near infrared) was the only waveband found to be significantly correlated with needle loss. Defoliation was also shown to be significantly correlated with digital elevation and aspect data. A multivariate linear regression model predicting percent defoliation was developed from the TM, elevation, and aspect data for the 21 field plots. In addition to having a high R2(0.85) the model was shown to reliably predict defoliation conditions throughout the ecosystem. A color‐coded classified image depicting the spatial distribution of defoliation conditions within the study site was generated by applying the model to the TM and DEM data.  相似文献   
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Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration - In this paper, the potential of utilizing improved metaheuristic approaches in optimal design of building structures is concerned. In this regard,...  相似文献   
10.
Real‐time hybrid simulation (RTHS) is an effective and versatile tool for the examination of complex structural systems with rate dependent behaviors. To meet the objectives of such a test, appropriate consideration must be given to the partitioning of the system into physical and computational portions (i.e., the configuration of the RTHS). Predictive stability and performance indicators (PSI and PPI) were initially established for use with only single degree‐of‐freedom systems. These indicators allow researchers to plan a RTHS, to quantitatively examine the impact of partitioning choices on stability and performance, and to assess the sensitivity of an RTHS configuration to de‐synchronization at the interface. In this study, PSI is extended to any linear multi‐degree‐of‐freedom (MDOF) system. The PSI is obtained analytically and it is independent of the transfer system and controller dynamics, providing a relatively easy and extremely useful method to examine many partitioning choices. A novel matrix method is adopted to convert a delay differential equation to a generalized eigenvalue problem using a set of vectorization mappings, and then to analytically solve the delay differential equations in a computationally efficient way. Through two illustrative examples, the PSI is demonstrated and validated. Validation of the MDOF PSI also includes comparisons to a MDOF dynamic model that includes realistic models of the hydraulic actuators and the control‐structure interaction effects. Results demonstrate that the proposed PSI can be used as an effective design tool for conducting successful RTHS. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd  相似文献   
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