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Comparing threshold definition techniques for rainfall‐induced landslides: A national assessment using radar rainfall 
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下载免费PDF全文 Translational landslides and debris flows are often initiated during intense or prolonged rainfall. Empirical thresholds aim to classify the rain conditions that are commonly associated with landslide occurrence and therefore improve understating of these hazards and predictive ability. Objective techniques that are used to determine these thresholds are likely to be affected by the length of the rain record used, yet this is not routinely considered. Moreover, remotely sensed spatially continuous rainfall observations are under‐exploited. This study compares and evaluates the effect of rain record length on two objective threshold selection techniques in a national assessment of Scotland using weather radar data. Thresholds selected by ‘threat score’ are sensitive to rain record length whereas, in a first application to landslides, ‘optimal point’ (OP) thresholds prove relatively consistent. OP thresholds increase landslide detection and may therefore be applicable in early‐warning systems. Thresholds combining 1‐ and 12‐day antecedence variables best distinguish landslide initiation conditions and indicate that Scottish landslides may be initiated by lower rain accumulation and intensities than previously thought. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 相似文献
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On the physics of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a pronounced signal of climate variability in the North Atlantic sea-surface temperature field. In this paper, we propose an explanation of the physical processes responsible for the timescale and the spatial pattern of the AMO. Our approach involves the analysis of solutions of a hierarchy of models. In the lowest member of the model hierarchy, which is an ocean-only model for flow in an idealized basin, the variability shows up as a multidecadal oscillatory mode which is able to destabilize the mean thermohaline circulation. In the highest member of the model hierarchy, which is the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory R30 climate model, multidecadal variability is found as a dominant statistical mode of variability. The connection between both results is established by tracing the spatial and temporal expression of the multidecadal mode through the model hierarchy while monitoring changes in specific quantities (mechanistic indicators) associated with its physics. The proposed explanation of the properties of the AMO is eventually based on the changes in the spatial patterns of variability through the model hierarchy.Responsible Editor: Tal Ezer 相似文献
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Birmpilis Georgios Hall Stephen A. Lages Sebastian Dijkstra Jelke 《Acta Geotechnica》2019,14(6):1965-1975
Acta Geotechnica - This paper introduces a new experimental method to monitor the evolving intra-particle, nanometre-scale response during hydro-mechanical tests on undisturbed wet clay samples... 相似文献
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Eric Deleersnijder Emmanuel Hanert Hans Burchard Henk A. Dijkstra 《Ocean Dynamics》2008,58(3-4):237-246
Occasionally, numerical simulations using local turbulence closure schemes to estimate vertical turbulent fluxes exhibit small-scale oscillations in space, causing the eddy coefficients to vary over several orders of magnitude on short distances. Theoretical developments suggest that these spurious oscillations are essentially due to the way the eddy coefficients depend on the vertical gradient of the model’s variables. An instability criterion is derived based on the assumptions that the artefacts under study are due to the development of small-amplitude, small time- and space-scale perturbations of a smooth solution. The relevance of this criterion is demonstrated by applying it to a series a closure schemes, ranging from the Pacanowski–Philander formulas to the Mellor–Yamada level 2.5 model. 相似文献
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Ocean Dynamics - We investigate the hypothesis by Winterwerp and Wang (Ocean Dyn 63:1279–1292, 2013) that channel deepening in the Scheldt River Estuary could lead to a large increase in... 相似文献
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Yi Zhang Xingmin Meng Colm Jordan Alessandro Novellino Tom Dijkstra Guan Chen 《Landslides》2018,15(7):1299-1315
In the Zhouqu region (Gansu, China), landslide distribution and activity exploits geological weaknesses in the fault-controlled belt of low-grade metamorphic rocks of the Bailong valley and severely impacts lives and livelihoods in this region. Landslides reactivated by the Wenchuan 2008 earthquake and debris flows triggered by rainfall, such as the 2010 Zhouqu debris flow, have caused more than 1700 casualties and estimated economic losses of some US$0.4 billion. Earthflows presently cover some 79% of the total landslide area and have exerted a strong influence on landscape dynamics and evolution in this region. In this study, we use multi-temporal Advanced Land Observing Satellite and Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (ALOS PALSAR) data and time series interferometric synthetic aperture radar to investigate slow-moving landslides in a mountainous region with steep topography for the period December 2007–August 2010 using the Small Baseline Subsets (SBAS) technique. This enabled the identification of 11 active earthflows, 19 active landslides with deformation rates exceeding 100 mm/year and 20 new instabilities added into the pre-existing landslide inventory map. The activity of these earthflows and landslides exhibits seasonal variations and accelerated deformation following the Wenchuan earthquake. Time series analysis of the Suoertou earthflow reveals that seasonal velocity changes are characterized by comparatively rapid acceleration and gradual deceleration with distinct kinematic zones with different mean velocities, although velocity changes appear to occur synchronously along the landslide body over seasonal timescales. The observations suggest that the post-seismic effects (acceleration period) on landslide deformation last some 6–7 months. 相似文献
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This paper presents a three-dimensional constitutive model for natural clay that includes creep, anisotropy and structure, as well as a theoretical means to estimate the range for anisotropy- and structure-related parameters, as needed for parameter optimisation. Creep-SCLAY1S is an extension of the Creep-SCLAY1 model proposed by Sivasithamparam et al. (Comput Geotech 69:46–57, 2015) which includes the effects of bonding and destructuration. The model needs 14 model parameters, of which five are similar to those used in the modified Cam–Clay model. A method is developed to quantify the range for the three parameters related to structure and anisotropy that cannot be derived directly from experimental data. The theoretically derived range compares favourably with the values found in the literature. As a result, the model now can be used with more confidence, enabling sensitivity analysis and systematic parameter derivation with optimisation techniques. 相似文献
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A box model of the inter-hemispheric Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is developed, including a variable pycnocline depth for the tropical and subtropical regions. The circulation is forced by winds over a periodic channel in the south and by freshwater forcing at the surface. The model is aimed at investigating the ocean feedbacks related to perturbations in freshwater forcing from the atmosphere, and to changes in freshwater transport in the ocean. These feedbacks are closely connected with the stability properties of the meridional overturning circulation, in particular in response to freshwater perturbations. A separate box is used for representing the region north of the Antarctic circumpolar current in the Atlantic sector. The density difference between this region and the north of the basin is then used for scaling the downwelling in the north. These choices are essential for reproducing the sensitivity of the meridional overturning circulation observed in general circulation models, and therefore suggest that the southernmost part of the Atlantic Ocean north of the Drake Passage is of fundamental importance for the stability of the meridional overturning circulation. With this configuration, the magnitude of the freshwater transport by the southern subtropical gyre strongly affects the response of the meridional overturning circulation to external forcing. The role of the freshwater transport by the overturning circulation (M ov ) as a stability indicator is discussed. It is investigated under which conditions its sign at the latitude of the southern tip of Africa can provide information on the existence of a second, permanently shut down, state of the overturning circulation in the box model. M ov will be an adequate indicator of the existence of multiple equilibria only if salt-advection feedback dominates over other processes in determining the response of the circulation to freshwater anomalies. M ov is a perfect indicator if feedbacks other than salt-advection are negligible. 相似文献