How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?     

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Jason Lowe  Elke Stehfest  Laila Gohar  Andries F. Hof  Chris Hope  Rachel Warren  Malte Meinshausen  Gian-Kasper Plattner 《Climatic change》2011,104(2):255-285

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spread in the climate system and carbon cycle components of several contemporary IAMs. We then examine these components in more detail to understand the causes of differences, comparing the results with more complex climate models and earth system models (ESMs), where available. Our results show that in most cases the outcomes of IAMs are within the range of the outcomes of complex models, but differences are large enough to matter for policy advice. There are areas where IAMs would benefit from improvements (e.g. climate sensitivity, inertia in climate response, carbon cycle feedbacks). In some cases, additional climate model experiments are needed to be able to tune some of these improvements. This will require better communication between the IAM and ESM development communities.  相似文献   

Palynology of Triassic–Jurassic boundary sections in northern Switzerland     

Elke Schneebeli-Hermann  Nathan Looser  Peter A. Hochuli  Heinz Furrer  Achim G. Reisdorf  Andreas Wetzel  Stefano M. Bernasconi 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2018,111(1-2):99-115

A first palynostratigraphic scheme of Upper Triassic deposits in northern Switzerland was established based on spore-pollen associations and dinoflagellate cyst records from the upper part of the Upper Triassic Klettgau Formation and the lower part of the Lower Jurassic Staffelegg Formation. Drill cores from the Adlerberg region (Basel Tabular Jura) and from Weiach (northern part of Canton Zurich) as well as from an outcrop at the Chilchzimmersattel (Basel Folded Jura) were studied and five informal palynological associations are distinguished. These palynological associations correlate with palynological association of the Central European Epicontinental Basin and the Tethyan realm and provide a stratigraphic framework for the uppermost Triassic sediments in northern Switzerland. Throughout the uppermost Triassic to Jurassic palynological succession a remarkable prominence of Classopollis spp. is observed. Besides Classopollis spp. the three Rhaetian palynological associations A to C from the Upper Triassic Belchen Member include typical Rhaetian spore-pollen and dinoflagellate taxa (e.g., Rhaetipollis germanicus, Geopollis zwolinskae, Rhaetogonyaulax rhaetica, and Dapcodinium priscum). Association B differs from association A in a higher relative abundance of the sporomorph taxa Perinopollenites spp. and the consistent occurrence of Granuloperculatipollis rudis and Ricciisporites tuberculatus. Spore diversity is highest in the late Rhaetian palynological association C and includes Polypodiisporites polymicroforatus. A Rhaetian age for the Belchen Member is confirmed by palynological associations A–C, but there is no record of the latest Rhaetian and the earliest Jurassic. In contrast to the Rhaetian palynological associations the Early Jurassic associations W and D include Pinuspollenites spp., Trachysporites fuscus (in association W), and Ischyosporites variegatus. In the view of the end-Triassic mass extinction and contemporaneous environmental changes the described palynofloral succession represents the pre-extinction phase (associations A and B) including a distinct transgression, the extinction phase (association C) associated with a regression, and the post-extinction phase (association W).  相似文献   

Using Multiple-Point Geostatistics for Tracer Test Modeling in a Clay-Drape Environment with Spatially Variable Conductivity and Sorption Coefficient   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Marijke Huysmans  Philippe Orban  Elke Cochet  Mathias Possemiers  Benedicta Ronchi  Katherine Lauriks  Okke Batelaan  Alain Dassargues 《Mathematical Geosciences》2014,46(5):519-537

This study investigates the effect of fine-scale clay drapes on tracer transport. A tracer test was performed in a sandbar deposit consisting of cross-bedded sandy units intercalated with many fine-scale clay drapes. The heterogeneous spatial distribution of the clay drapes causes a spatially variable hydraulic conductivity and sorption coefficient. A fluorescent tracer (sodium naphthionate) was injected in two injection wells and ground water was sampled and analyzed from five pumping wells. To determine (1) whether the fine-scale clay drapes have a significant effect on the measured concentrations and (2) whether application of multiple-point geostatistics can improve interpretation of tracer tests in media with complex geological heterogeneity, this tracer test is analyzed with a local three-dimensional ground-water flow and transport model in which fine-scale sedimentary heterogeneity is modeled using multiple-point geostatistics. To reduce memory needs and calculation time for the multiple-point geostatistical simulation step, this study uses the technique of direct multiple-point geostatistical simulation of edge properties. Instead of simulating pixel values, model cell edge properties indicating the presence of irregularly shaped surfaces are simulated using multiple-point geostatistical simulations. Results of a sensitivity analysis show under which conditions clay drapes have a significant effect on the concentration distribution. Calibration of the model against measured concentrations from the tracer tests reduces the uncertainty on the clay-drape parameters. The calibrated model shows which features of the breakthrough curves can be attributed to the geological heterogeneity of the aquifer and which features are caused by other processes.  相似文献   

Evaluation of Density Corrections to Methane Fluxes Measured by Open-Path Eddy Covariance over Contrasting Landscapes     

Samuel D. Chamberlain  Joseph Verfaillie  Elke Eichelmann  Kyle S. Hemes  Dennis D. Baldocchi 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2017,165(2):197-210

Corrections accounting for air density fluctuations due to heat and water vapour fluxes must be applied to the measurement of eddy-covariance fluxes when using open-path sensors. Experimental tests and ecosystem observations have demonstrated the important role density corrections play in accurately quantifying carbon dioxide \((\hbox {CO}_{2})\) fluxes, but less attention has been paid to evaluating these corrections for methane \((\hbox {CH}_{4})\) fluxes. We measured \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) fluxes with open-path sensors over a suite of sites with contrasting \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) emissions and energy partitioning, including a pavement airfield, two negligible-flux ecosystems (drained alfalfa and pasture), and two high-flux ecosystems (flooded wetland and rice). We found that density corrections successfully re-zeroed fluxes in negligible-flux sites; however, slight overcorrection was observed above pavement. The primary impact of density corrections varied over negligible- and high-flux ecosystems. For negligible-flux sites, corrections led to greater than 100% adjustment in daily budgets, while these adjustments were only 3–10% in high-flux ecosystems. The primary impact to high-flux ecosystems was a change in flux diel patterns, which may affect the evaluation of relationships between biophysical drivers and fluxes if correction bias exists. Additionally, accounting for density effects to high-frequency \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) fluctuations led to large differences in observed \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) flux cospectra above negligible-flux sites, demonstrating that similar adjustments should be made before interpreting \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) cospectra for comparable ecosystems. These results give us confidence in \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) fluxes measured by open-path sensors, and demonstrate that density corrections play an important role in adjusting flux budgets and diel patterns across a range of ecosystems.  相似文献   

Resistance of Lophelia pertusa to coverage by sediment and petroleum drill cuttings     

Elke Allers  Raeid M.M. Abed  Laura M. Wehrmann  Tao Wang  Ann I. Larsson  Autun Purser  Dirk de Beer 《Marine pollution bulletin》2013

In laboratory experiments, the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa was exposed to settling particles. The effects of reef sediment, petroleum drill cuttings and a mix of both, on the development of anoxia at the coral surface were studied using O₂, pH and H₂S microsensors and by assessing coral polyp mortality. Due to the branching morphology of L. pertusa and the release of coral mucus, accumulation rates of settling material on coral branches were low. Microsensors detected H₂S production in only a few samples, and sulfate reduction rates of natural reef sediment slurries were low (<0.3 nmol S cm⁻³ d⁻¹). While the exposure to sediment clearly reduced the coral’s accessibility to oxygen, L. pertusa tolerated both partial low-oxygen and anoxic conditions without any visible detrimental short-term effect, such as tissue damage or death. However, complete burial of coral branches for >24 h in reef sediment resulted in suffocation.  相似文献   

Electrical conductivity of H-bearing orthopyroxene single crystals measured with impedance spectroscopy     

Elke Schlechter  Roland Stalder  Harald Behrens 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2012,39(7):531-541

In this study, the electrical conductivity of synthetic and natural orthopyroxene single crystals containing various amounts of hydrogen and cation impurities (i.e., Al, Fe) was investigated using impedance spectroscopy. A new cell was developed to measure conductivities of submillimeter-sized oriented single crystals with impedances up to 10¹⁰?Ohm. In contrast to previous studies on olivine and orthopyroxene, results from this study do not show a simple correlation of the concentration of protons and the electrical conductivity. Instead, the electrical conductivity appears to be a complex function of iron content, hydrogen content, crystal orientation and concentration of other impurity cations and shows similar activation energies to hydrogen diffusion. Model calculations considering proton conduction rather exclude than suggest orthopyroxene as responsible phase for high-conductivity regions in the Earth’s upper mantle.  相似文献   

Climate benefits of changing diet   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

Elke Stehfest  Lex Bouwman  Detlef P. van Vuuren  Michel G. J. den Elzen  Bas Eickhout  Pavel Kabat 《Climatic change》2009,95(1-2):83-102

Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have lead to a revision of meat consumption recommendations. Here, we explored the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization levels. By using an integrated assessment model, we found a global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch to plant-based protein food to have a dramatic effect on land use. Up to 2,700 Mha of pasture and 100 Mha of cropland could be abandoned, resulting in a large carbon uptake from regrowing vegetation. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emission would be reduced substantially. A global transition to a low meat-diet as recommended for health reasons would reduce the mitigation costs to achieve a 450 ppm CO₂-eq. stabilisation target by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case. Dietary changes could therefore not only create substantial benefits for human health and global land use, but can also play an important role in future climate change mitigation policies.  相似文献   

Towards continuous long-term measurements of suspended particulate matter (SPM) in turbid coastal waters   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Thomas H. Badewien  Elke Zimmer  Alexander Bartholomä  Rainer Reuter 《Ocean Dynamics》2009,59(2):227-238

The dynamics of sediment transport in the East Frisian Wadden Sea are important for the coastal zone and for ecosystem functioning. The tidal inlets between the East Frisian islands connect the back-barrier intertidal flats to the North Sea. Here, concentrations of suspended particulate matter (SPM) in the water column are highly variable, depending on weather conditions and tides. In order to estimate the nature and quantity of sediment transport, in situ measurements were carried out at a Time Series Station in the tidal inlet between the islands of Spiekeroog and Langeoog. This study shows the suitability of multispectral transmissometry (MST) for obtaining long-term SPM measurements with high resolution. The comparability of this technique to the standard filter method and the laser diffraction method [laser in situ scattering and transmissometry (LISST)] is demonstrated. In addition, the Junge coefficients derived from both MST and LISST measurements are compared. A time series of SPM data covering nearly 4 months is presented. As a major result, the data reveal that a single storm surge can have less impact on SPM dynamics than longer-lasting gales. This high-resolution long-term data set is very valuable for modelling suspended matter flux. It also provides background information for studying the influence of SPM dynamics on coastal sediments.  相似文献   

A comparison of annual and seasonal carbon dioxide effluxes between sub-Arctic Sweden and High-Arctic Svalbard     

Mats P. Björkman  Elke Morgner  Robert G. Björk  Elisabeth J. Cooper  Bo Elberling  & Leif Klemedtsson 《Polar research》2010,29(1):75-84

Recent climate change predictions suggest altered patterns of winter precipitation across the Arctic. It has been suggested that the presence, timing and quantity of snow all affect microbial activity, thus influencing CO₂ production in soil. In this study annual and seasonal emissions of CO₂ were estimated in High-Arctic Adventdalen, Svalbard, and sub-Arctic Latnjajaure, Sweden, using a new trace gas-based method to track real-time diffusion rates through the snow. Summer measurements from snow-free soils were made using a chamber-based method. Measurements were obtained from different snow regimes in order to evaluate the effect of snow depth on winter CO₂ effluxes. Total annual emissions of CO₂ from the sub-Arctic site (0.662–1.487 kg CO₂ m^–2 yr^–1) were found to be more than double the emissions from the High-Arctic site (0.369–0.591 kg CO₂ m^–2 yr^–1). There were no significant differences in winter effluxes between snow regimes or vegetation types, indicating that spatial variability in winter soil CO₂ effluxes are not directly linked to snow cover thickness or soil temperatures. Total winter emissions (0.004–0.248 kg CO₂ m^–2) were found to be in the lower range of those previously described in the literature. Winter emissions varied in their contribution to total annual production between 1 and 18%. Artificial snow drifts shortened the snow-free period by 2 weeks and decreased the annual CO₂ emission by up to 20%. This study suggests that future shifts in vegetation zones may increase soil respiration from Arctic tundra regions.  相似文献   

Flood-triggered versus earthquake-triggered turbidites: A sedimentological study in clastic lake sediments (Eklutna Lake,Alaska)     

Elke Vandekerkhove  Maarten Van Daele  Nore Praet  Veerle Cnudde  Peter J. Haeussler  Marc De Batist 《Sedimentology》2020,67(1):364-389

Lake sediments in Eklutna Lake, Alaska, reveal the presence of turbidites within varved sequences. These turbidites, which result from flood events and earthquakes, show a similar macroscopic appearance. In order to use turbidites to reconstruct flood variability and/or seismic history in the lake basin, it is crucial to determine the trigger of the turbidity currents. This study examined the turbidite caused by the ad 1964 Great Alaska earthquake as well as turbidites linked to historical flood events in order to differentiate between these earthquake-triggered and flood-triggered turbidites. In a suite of samples from throughout the lake, distinctive proxies are identified that can be associated with event-specific flow characteristics. The study presents straightforward discrimination methods related to the sedimentology and geochemical components of the turbidites. These methods are also applicable to other lakes, particularly proglacial lakes where the sediment composition of onshore and offshore sources is similar. Finally, the discrimination of the turbidite trigger can be used to reconstruct the palaeoflood and seismic history.  相似文献