An integrated 1D–2D hydraulic modelling approach to assess the sensitivity of a coastal region to compound flooding hazard under climate change     

Pasquier  Ulysse  He  Yi  Hooton  Simon  Goulden  Marisa  Hiscock  Kevin M. 《Natural Hazards》2019,98(3):915-937

Coastal regions are dynamic areas that often lie at the junction of different natural hazards. Extreme events such as storm surges and high precipitation are significant sources of concern for flood management. As climatic changes and sea-level rise put further pressure on these vulnerable systems, there is a need for a better understanding of the implications of compounding hazards. Recent computational advances in hydraulic modelling offer new opportunities to support decision-making and adaptation. Our research makes use of recently released features in the HEC-RAS version 5.0 software to develop an integrated 1D–2D hydrodynamic model. Using extreme value analysis with the Peaks-Over-Threshold method to define extreme scenarios, the model was applied to the eastern coast of the UK. The sensitivity of the protected wetland known as the Broads to a combination of fluvial, tidal and coastal sources of flooding was assessed, accounting for different rates of twenty-first century sea-level rise up to the year 2100. The 1D–2D approach led to a more detailed representation of inundation in coastal urban areas, while allowing for interactions with more fluvially dominated inland areas to be captured. While flooding was primarily driven by increased sea levels, combined events exacerbated flooded area by 5–40% and average depth by 10–32%, affecting different locations depending on the scenario. The results emphasise the importance of catchment-scale strategies that account for potentially interacting sources of flooding.

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Interviews of Mongolian herders and high resolution precipitation data reveal an increase in short heavy rains and thunderstorm activity in semi-arid Mongolia     

Clyde E. Goulden  Jerry Mead  Richard Horwitz  Munhtuya Goulden  Banzragch Nandintsetseg  Sabrina McCormick  Bazartseren Boldgiv  Peter S. Petraitis 《Climatic change》2016,136(2):281-295

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Evapotranspiration response to multiyear dry periods in the semiarid western United States     

Joseph Rungee  Roger Bales  Michael Goulden 《水文研究》2019,33(2):182-194

Analysis of measured evapotranspiration shows that subsurface plant‐accessible water storage (PAWS) can sustain evapotranspiration through multiyear dry periods. Measurements at 25 flux tower sites in the semiarid western United States, distributed across five land cover types, show both resistance and vulnerability to multiyear dry periods. Average (±standard deviation) evapotranspiration ranged from 660 ± 230 mm yr^?1 (October–September) in evergreen needleleaf forests to 310 ± 200 mm yr^?1 in grasslands and shrublands. More than 52% of the annual evapotranspiration in Mediterranean climates is supported on average by seasonal drawdown of subsurface PAWS, versus 29% in monsoon‐influenced climates. Snowmelt replenishes dry‐season PAWS by as much as 20% at sites with significant seasonal snow accumulation but was insignificant at most sites. Evapotranspiration exceeded precipitation in more than half of the observation years at sites below 35°N. Annual evapotranspiration at non‐energy‐limited sites increased with precipitation, reaching a mean wet‐year evapotranspiration of 833 mm for evergreen needleleaf forests, 861 mm for mixed forests, 558 mm for woody savannas, 367 mm for grasslands, and 254 mm for shrublands. Thirteen sites experienced at least one multiyear dry period, when mean precipitation was more than one standard deviation below the historical mean. All vegetation types except evergreen needleleaf forests responded to multiyear dry periods by lowering evapotranspiration and/or significant year‐over‐year depletion of subsurface PAWS. Sites maintained wet‐year evapotranspiration rates for 8–33 months before attenuation, with a corresponding net PAWS drawdown of as much as 334 mm. Net drawdown at many sites continued until the dry period ended, resulting in an overall cumulative withdrawal of as much as 558 mm. Evergreen needleleaf forests maintained high evapotranspiration during multiyear dry periods with no apparent PAWS drawdown; these forests currently avoid drought but may prove vulnerable to longer and warmer dry periods that reduce snowpack storage and accelerate evapotranspiration.  相似文献   

Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

W. Neil Adger  Suraje Dessai  Marisa Goulden  Mike Hulme  Irene Lorenzoni  Donald R. Nelson  Lars Otto Naess  Johanna Wolf  Anita Wreford 《Climatic change》2009,93(3-4):335-354

While there is a recognised need to adapt to changing climatic conditions, there is an emerging discourse of limits to such adaptation. Limits are traditionally analysed as a set of immutable thresholds in biological, economic or technological parameters. This paper contends that limits to adaptation are endogenous to society and hence contingent on ethics, knowledge, attitudes to risk and culture. We review insights from history, sociology and psychology of risk, economics and political science to develop four propositions concerning limits to adaptation. First, any limits to adaptation depend on the ultimate goals of adaptation underpinned by diverse values. Second, adaptation need not be limited by uncertainty around future foresight of risk. Third, social and individual factors limit adaptation action. Fourth, systematic undervaluation of loss of places and culture disguises real, experienced but subjective limits to adaptation. We conclude that these issues of values and ethics, risk, knowledge and culture construct societal limits to adaptation, but that these limits are mutable.  相似文献