The accurate evaluation and appropriate treatment of uncertainties is of primary importance in modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). One of the objectives of the SIGMA project was to establish a framework to improve knowledge and data on two target regions characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity. In this paper, for South-Eastern France, we present the final PSHA performed within the SIGMA project. A new earthquake catalogue for France covering instrumental and historical periods was used for the calculation of the magnitude-frequency distributions. The hazard model incorporates area sources, smoothed seismicity and a 3D faults model. A set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from global and regional data, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region, was used to calculate the hazard. The magnitude-frequency distributions, maximum magnitude, faults slip rate and style-of-faulting are considered as additional source of epistemic uncertainties. The hazard results for generic rock condition (Vs30 = 800 m/s) are displayed for 20 sites in terms of uniform hazard spectra at two return periods (475 years and 10,000 years). The contributions of the epistemic uncertainties in the ground motion characterizations and in the seismic source characterization to the total hazard uncertainties are analyzed. Finally, we compare the results with existing models developed at national scale in the framework of the first generation of models supporting the Eurocode 8 enforcement, (MEDD 2002 and AFPS06) and at the European scale (within the SHARE project), highlighting significant discrepancies at short return periods. 相似文献
In thermal-related engineering such as thermal energy structures and nuclear waste disposal, it is essential to well understand volume change and excess pore water pressure buildup of soils under thermal cycles. However, most existing thermo-mechanical models can merely simulate one heating–cooling cycle and fail in capturing accumulation phenomenon due to multiple thermal cycles. In this study, a two-surface elasto-plastic model considering thermal cyclic behavior is proposed. This model is based on the bounding surface plasticity and progressive plasticity by introducing two yield surfaces and two loading yield limits. A dependency law is proposed by linking two loading yield limits with a thermal accumulation parameter nc, allowing the thermal cyclic behavior to be taken into account. Parameter nc controls the evolution rate of the inner loading yield limit approaching the loading yield limit following a thermal loading path. By extending the thermo-hydro-mechanical equations into the elastic–plastic state, the excess pore water pressure buildup of soil due to thermal cycles is also accounted. Then, thermal cycle tests on four fine-grained soils (natural Boom clay, Geneva clay, Bonny silt, and reconstituted Pontida clay) under different OCRs and stresses are simulated and compared. The results show that the proposed model can well describe both strain accumulation phenomenon and excess pore water pressure buildup of fine-grained soils under the effect of thermal cycles.
Ocean Dynamics - Identifying zones of stagnation and deposition of terrigenous matter or contaminants induced by human activity is a key issue in coastal areas. In this paper, circulation processes... 相似文献
In this paper, numerical and analytical methods are used to evaluate the ultimate pullout capacity of a group of square anchor plates in row or square configurations, installed horizontally in dense sand. The elasto-plastic numerical study of square anchor plates is carried out using three-dimensional finite element analysis. The soil is modeled by an elasto-plastic model with a Mohr–Coulomb yield criterion. An analytical method based on a simplified three-dimensional failure mechanism is developed in this study. The interference effect is evaluated by group efficiency η, defined as the ratio of the ultimate pullout capacity of group of N anchor plates to that of a single isolated plate multiplied by number of plates. The variation of the group efficiency η was computed with respect to change in the spacing between plates. Results of the analyses show that the spacing between the plates, the internal friction angle of soil and the installation depth are the most important parameters influencing the group efficiency. New equations are developed in this study to evaluate the group efficiency of square anchor plates embedded horizontally in sand at shallow depth (H = 4B). The results obtained by numerical and analytical solutions are in excellent agreement. 相似文献
Hydrogeology Journal - An extensive network of multilevel vibrating-wire piezometers (VWP) was recently created to monitor the spatial and temporal variation of pore pressure (and hydraulic head)... 相似文献
Underground geological storage of CO2 in deep saline aquifers is considered for reducing greenhouse gases emissions into the atmosphere. However, some issues were raised with regard to the potential hazards to shallow groundwater resources from CO2 leakage, brine displacement and pressure build-up. An overview is provided of the current scientific knowledge pertaining to the potential impact on shallow groundwater resources of geological storage of CO2 in deep saline aquifers, identifying knowledge gaps for which original research opportunities are proposed. Two main impacts are defined and discussed therein: the near-field impact due to the upward vertical migration of free-phase CO2 to surficial aquifers, and the far-field impact caused by large-scale displacement of formation waters by the injected CO2. For the near-field, it is found that numerical studies predict possible mobilization of trace elements but concentrations are rarely above the maximum limit for potable water. For the far-field, numerical studies predict only minor impacts except for some specific geological conditions such as high caprock permeability. Despite important knowledge gaps, the possible environmental impacts of geological storage of CO2 in deep saline aquifers on shallow groundwater resources appears to be low, but much more work is required to evaluate site specific impacts. 相似文献
Numerical simulations of groundwater flow and heat transport are used to provide insight into the interaction between shallow groundwater flow and thermal dynamics related to permafrost thaw and thaw settlement at the Iqaluit Airport taxiway, Nunavut, Canada. A conceptual model is first developed for the site and a corresponding two-dimensional numerical model is calibrated to the observed ground temperatures. Future climate-warming impacts on the thermal regime and flow system are then simulated based on climate scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Under climate warming, surface snow cover is identified as the leading factor affecting permafrost degradation, including its role in increasing the sensitivity of permafrost degradation to changes in various hydrogeological factors. In this case, advective heat transport plays a relatively minor, but non-negligible, role compared to conductive heat transport, due to the significant extent of low-permeability soil close to surface. Conductive heat transport, which is strongly affected by the surface snow layer, controls the release of unfrozen water and the depth of the active layer as well as the magnitude of thaw settlement and frost heave. Under the warmest climate-warming scenario with an average annual temperature increase of 3.23 °C for the period of 2011–2100, the simulations suggest that the maximum depth of the active layer will increase from 2 m in 2012 to 8.8 m in 2100 and, over the same time period, thaw settlement along the airport taxiway will increase from 0.11 m to at least 0.17 m.
To improve the knowledge of the regionally important Continental Terminal 3 (CT3) aquifer in south-western Niger, fifteen magnetic resonance soundings (MRS) were carried out in December 2005 in the vicinity of wells and boreholes. The output MRS geophysical parameters, i.e. water content and decay constants versus depth, were compared to hydrogeological characteristics, i.e. water table depth, total porosity, specific yield and transmissivity estimated from direct measurements, pumping tests and transient groundwater modelling. The MRS-determined parameters were then used to estimate the rates of groundwater recharge.Contained in poorly consolidated Tertiary sandstones, the CT3 aquifer's water table has continuously risen by 4 m in total over the past four decades. Additionally, a significant portion of this increase has occurred in the past decade alone, with an annual rise now ranging between 0.1 and 0.3 m depending on the monitored well. Increase in groundwater recharge due to land clearance and deforestation explains this situation. According to previous estimations, the pre-clearing recharge ranged from 1 to 5 mm per year in 1950–60 s, while more recent recharge rates (1990s–2000s) range from 20 to 50 mm per year. These recharge values are directly affected by estimated aquifer specific yield value, while the spatial variation of rates of water table rise can be attributed to large scale hydrodynamic heterogeneities in the aquifer. However, few field measurements were available to confirm these assumptions.The main results of this study are: (1) The water table depth and aquifer transmissivity are estimated from MRS output parameters with an average accuracy of ± 10% and ± 9% respectively. (2) The MRS-determined water content is linked to both the total porosity and the specific yield of the aquifer, but no quantitative formulation can be proposed as yet. (3) Using the average MRS-determined water content over the investigated area, i.e. 13%, the groundwater recharge rates can be estimated to be ~ 2 mm per year in the 1950–1960s (pre-clearing period), and ~ 23 mm per year for the last decade. (4) The variations in specific yield and transmissivity cannot explain by themselves the spatial variability of the rise of the water table. (5) The ranges in transmissivity and water content obtained from MRS are more realistic than the groundwater modelling outputs. Therefore, MRS could be used to better constrain the aquifer parameters in groundwater modelling with a dense site network.Finally, this work illustrates how MRS can successfully improve characterisation and transient multi-year groundwater balance of commonly found sedimentary aquifers, particularly when integrated with well observations and pumping tests. 相似文献
This study aims to provide knowledge on the thermo-mechanical behaviour of heat exchanger piles, through a laboratory scale model. The model pile (20 mm in external diameter) was embedded in dry sand. The behaviour of the axially loaded pile under thermal cycles was investigated. After applying the axial load on the pile head, the pile temperature was varied between 5 and 30 °C. Seven tests, corresponding to various axial loads ranging from 0 to 70 % of the pile estimated bearing capacity, were performed. The results on pile head displacement show that heating under low axial load induced heave and cooling induced settlement; the pile temperature-displacement curve was found to be reversible and compatible with the thermal expansion curve of the pile. However, at higher axial loads, irreversible settlement of the pile head was observed after a few thermal cycles. The axial load profile measured by the strain gauges evidenced that the pile head load was mainly transferred to the pile toe. Nevertheless, thermal cycles modified significantly the mobilised skin friction along the pile. The total pressure measured at various locations in the soil mass was also slightly influenced by the thermal cycles. 相似文献
