Investigating potential future changes in surface water flooding hazard and impact     

Alison C. Rudd  Alison L. Kay  Steven C. Wells  Timothy Aldridge  Steven J. Cole  Elizabeth J. Kendon  Elizabeth J. Stewart 《水文研究》2020,34(1):139-149

Surface water flooding (SWF) is a recurrent hazard that affects lives and livelihoods. Climate change is projected to change the frequency of extreme rainfall events that can lead to SWF. Increasingly, data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are being used to investigate the potential water-related impacts of climate change; such assessments often focus on broad-scale fluvial flooding and the use of coarse resolution (>12 km) RCMs. However, high-resolution (<4 km) convection-permitting RCMs are now becoming available that allow impact assessments of more localised SWF to be made. At the same time, there has been an increasing demand for more robust and timely real-time forecast and alert information on SWF. In the UK, a real-time SWF Hazard Impact Model framework has been developed. The system uses 1-km gridded surface runoff estimates from a hydrological model to simulate the SWF hazard. These are linked to detailed inundation model outputs through an Impact Library to assess impacts on property, people, transport, and infrastructure for four severity levels. Here, a set of high-resolution (1.5 km and 12 km) RCM data has been used as input to a grid-based hydrological model over southern Britain to simulate Current (1996–2009) and Future (~2100s; RCP8.5) surface runoff. Counts of threshold-exceedance for surface runoff and precipitation (at 1-, 3- and 6-hr durations) are analysed. Results show that the percentage increases in surface runoff extremes, are less than those of precipitation extremes. The higher-resolution RCM simulates the largest percentage increases, which occur in winter, and the winter exceedance counts are greater than summer exceedance counts. For property impacts, the largest percentage increases are also in winter; however, it is the 12-km RCM output that leads to the largest percentage increase in impacts. The added-value of high-resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling is from capturing the more intense convective storms in surface runoff estimates.  相似文献   

Age and origin of groundwater resources in the Ararat Valley,Armenia: a baseline study applying hydrogeochemistry and environmental tracers     

Schubert  Michael  Michelsen  Nils  Schmidt  Axel  Eichenauer  Laura  Knoeller  Kay  Arakelyan  Alexander  Harutyunyan  Lilith  Schüth  Christoph 《Hydrogeology Journal》2021,29(7):2517-2527

Within the Ararat Valley (Armenia), a continuously growing water demand (for irrigation and fish farming) and a simultaneous decline in groundwater recharge (due to climate change) result in increasing stress on the local groundwater resources. This detrimental development is reflected by groundwater-level drops and an associated reduction of the area with artesian conditions in the valley centre. This situation calls for increasing efforts aimed at more sustainable water resources management. The aim of this baseline study was the collection of data that allows for study on the origin and age distribution of the Ararat Valley groundwater based on environmental tracers, namely stable (δ²H, δ¹⁸O) and radioactive (³⁵S, ³H) isotopes, as well as physical-chemical indicators. The results show that the Ararat Valley receives modern recharge, despite its (semi-)arid climate. While subannual groundwater residence times could be disproved (³⁵S), the detected ³H pattern suggests groundwater ages of several decades, with the oldest waters being recharged around 60 years ago. The differing groundwater ages are reflected by varying scatter of stable isotope and hydrochemical signatures. The presence of young groundwater (i.e., younger that the 1970s), some containing nitrate, indicates groundwater vulnerability and underscores the importance of increased efforts to achieve sustainable management of this natural resource. Since stable isotope signatures indicate the recharge areas to be located in the mountains surrounding the valley, these efforts must not be limited to the central part of the valley where most of the abstraction wells are located.

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Cues,Not an Endogenous Rhythm,Control the Dusk Peak in Water-Column Entry by Benthic Copepods     

Kay Vopel  David Thistle 《Estuaries and Coasts》2011,34(6):1194-1204

Individuals of some benthic species swim out of or away from the sediment surface into the water column, i.e., they emerge. Individuals of both emergent and nonemergent benthic species can be entrained by near-bottom flows. Both emergence and entrainment are of interest, e.g., for their roles in benthopelagic coupling, but the controlling factors are poorly understood. Our experiments with benthic copepods from contrasting environments showed that a factor (or factors) associated with the onset of darkness, rather than an endogenous rhythm, controls their dusk emergence. In addition, we argue that entrainment and emergence can interact in at least two ways: (1) Light-induced changes in oxygenation of the sediment pore water may affect the entrainment flux of benthic copepods and (2) if large numbers of individuals are entrained in the time leading up to sunset, few will remain in the sediment to be part of the dusk peak in emergence.  相似文献   

Fiscal geographies: “Placing” taxation in urban geography     

Renee Tapp  Kelly Kay 《Urban geography》2019,40(4):573-581

As the state’s primary means of both redistributing wealth and incentivizing private investment, tax plays an outsized role in a range of critical urban processes, including (re)development, gentrification, financialization, and local and regional governance. We argue, through reference to existing literature in urban and economic geography, as well as our own research on taxation and the state, that urban scholarship could benefit by close and careful engagement with taxation and the tax system. We term this new vein of research “fiscal geographies” and see it as offering potential for more nuanced study of urban political economy, politics, and processes.  相似文献   

Developing a large‐scale water‐balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain     

V. A. Bell  H. N. Davies  A. L. Kay  T. J. Marsh  A. Brookshaw  A. Jenkins 《水文研究》2013,27(20):3003-3012

Seasonal hydrological forecasts, or outlooks, can potentially provide water managers with estimates of river flows and water resources for a lead time of several months ahead. An experimental modelling tool for national hydrological outlooks has been developed which combines a hydrological model estimate of sub‐surface water storage across Britain with a range of seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide estimates of area‐wide hydrological conditions up to a few months ahead. The link is made between a deficit in sub‐surface water storage and a requirement for additional rainfall over subsequent months to enable sub‐surface water storage and river flow to return to mean monthly values. The new scheme is assessed over a recent period which includes the termination of the drought that affected much of Britain in the first few months of 2012. An illustration is provided of its use to obtain return‐period estimates of the ‘rainfall required’ to ease drought conditions; these are well in excess of 200 years for several regions of the country, for termination within a month of 1 April 2012, and still exceed 40 years for termination within three months. National maps of sub‐surface water storage anomaly show for the first time the current spatial variability of drought severity. They can also be used to provide an indication of how a drought situation might develop in the next few months given a range of possible future rainfall scenarios. © 2013 CEH/Crown and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Influence of Current Width Variation on the Annual Mean Transport of the East Sakhalin Current: A Simple Model     

Yoichi?ShimadaEmail author  Atsushi?Kubokawa  Kay?I.?Ohshima 《Journal of Oceanography》2005,61(5):913-920

Recent observations suggest that the annual mean southward transport of the East Sakhalin Current (ESC) is significantly larger than the annual mean Sverdrup transport. Motivated by this observational result, transport of a western boundary current has been investigated using a simple numerical model with a western slope. This transport is defined as the instantaneous barotropic transport integrated from the western boundary to the offshore point where the barotropic velocity vanishes. The model, forced by seasonally varying wind stress, exhibits an annual mean of the western boundary current transport that is larger than that of the Sverdrup transport, as observed. The southward transport from October to March in the model nearly equals the instantaneous Sverdrup transport, while the southward transport from April to September decreases slowly. Although the Sverdrup transport in July vanishes, the southward transport in summer nearly maintains the annual mean Sverdrup transport, because the barotropic Rossby wave cannot intrude on the western slope. This summer transport causes the larger annual mean. Although there are some uncertainties in the estimation of the Sverdrup transport in the Sea of Okhotsk, the seasonal variation of the southward transport in the model is qualitatively similar to the observations.  相似文献   

Barotropic Response of the Sea of Okhotsk to Wind Forcing     

Daisuke Simizu  Kay I. Ohshima 《Journal of Oceanography》2002,58(6):851-860

We have examined wind-induced circulation in the Sea of Okhotsk using a barotropic model that contains realistic topography with a resolution of 9.25 km. The monthly wind stress field calculated from daily European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Re-Analysis data is used as the forcing, and the integration is carried out for 20 days until the circulation attains an almost steady state. In the case of November (a representative for the winter season from October to March), southward currents of velocity 0.1–0.3 m s⁻¹ occur along the bottom contours off the east of Sakhalin Island. The currents are mostly confined to the shelf (shallower than 200 m) and extend as far south as the Hokkaido coast. In the July case (a representative for the summer season from April to September), significant currents do not occur, even in the shallow shelves. The simulated southward current over the east Sakhalin shelf appears to correspond to the near-shore branch of the East Sakhalin Current (ESC), which was observed with the surface drifters. These seasonal variations simulated in our experiments are consistent with the observations of the ESC. Dynamically, the simulated ESC is interpreted as the arrested topographic wave (ATW), which is the coastally trapped flow driven by steady alongshore wind stress. The volume transport of the simulated ESC over the shelf reaches about 1.0 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³s⁻¹) in the winter season, which is determined by the integrated onshore Ekman transport in the direction from which shelf waves propagate. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Geomorphology in environmental planning,J. M. Hooke, 1988, John wiley and sons,New York,British geomorphological research group symposia series. No. of pages: 274 pp (hardback)     

David Kay 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1990,15(5):489-489

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Origin and age of ultramafic rocks and gabbros in the southern Puna of Argentina: an alleged Ordovician suture revisited     

Udo Zimmermann  Heinrich Bahlburg  Klaus Mezger  Jasper Berndt  Suzanne Mahlburg Kay 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2014,103(4):1023-1036

Ultramafic rocks and gabbros are exposed in the southern Puna (NW Argentina) in tectonic association with continental arc-related Ordovician (volcano) sedimentary successions and granitoids. The origin of this mafic rock suite has been debated for three decades as either representing an Ordovician terrane suture, primitive Ordovician arc-related rocks or relics of the pre-Ordovician basement in tectonic contact with the Ordovician retro-arc basin successions. We present the first U–Pb ages of primary and inherited zircon from gabbros of this mafic–ultramafic assemblage. LA-ICP-MS analyses on cores and rims of these zircon grains yielded a concordia age of 543.4 ± 7.2 Ma for the gabbroic rocks. Other analysed zircons have Mesoproterozoic, and Early Ediacaran core and rim ages indicating that the magmas also assimilated Meso- and Neoproterozoic crustal material prior to final crystallization. The mafic rocks witnessed higher metamorphic grade than associated Ordovician rocks, which are unmetamorphosed or only affected by anchimetamorphism. The gabbros are mostly tholeiitic and enriched in Zr, Th, as well as other incompatible elements and have εNd _t=540Ma ranging from 1.3 to 7.4 with most of the values between 5 and 7. ¹⁴⁷Sm/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios show evidence of weak crustal contamination. The mafic rocks do not reveal any affinity to mid-ocean ridge basalts in their geochemistry but point instead to an emplacement in an active plate margin arc environment. Chromites from ultramafic rocks show typical Ti, Al, Cr#, Fe³⁺ abundances found in magmatic arc rocks. The formation of the gabbros and the associated ultramafic rocks in the southern Argentine Puna is related to the evolution of the margin of the Pampia terrane, including the Puncoviscana basin, during the Late Neoproterozoic and earliest Cambrian. In contrast to previous interpretations, the rocks predate the Ordovician evolution of the Central proto-Andean active margin. Consequently, interpretations assuming these rocks to represent an oceanic terrane suture of Ordovician age have to be dismissed as much as all palaeotectonic models that define Ordovician terranes in the Central Andes based on assumption that the ultramafic rocks and gabbros exposed in the southern Puna mark plate boundaries.  相似文献   

The baseline intracluster entropy profile from gravitational structure formation     

G. Mark Voit  Scott T. Kay  Greg L. Bryan 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,364(3):909-916

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