Tropical cyclone early warnings for the regions of the Southern Hemisphere: strengthening resilience to tropical cyclones in small island developing states and least developed countries     

Kuleshov  Yuriy  Gregory  Paul  Watkins  Andrew B.  Fawcett  Robert J. B. 《Natural Hazards》2020,104(2):1295-1313

Tropical cyclones (TCs) affect countries in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropics every year causing significant humanitarian impacts and much damage to the natural environment. To reduce TC impacts on societies, early warning systems (EWS) are used to communicate the risk to the public. In 1999, the Climate Change and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones International Initiative (CCSHTCII) was established to enhance EWS for TCs in SH countries, with particular focus on support for small island developing states and least developed countries to provide effective public early warnings of TC risk. In this paper, recent activities of the CCSHTCII to strengthen TC EWS are presented. Using TC best track data from the SH TC historical data archive, the impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual and spatial variability of TC activity is examined. TC-ENSO relationships in the SH are analysed and used as a scientific basis for the production of TC season outlooks. Communication of TC early warnings through TC season outlooks is described, and recommendations for improving outlooks are provided.

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The Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front: physical and biological coupling at South Georgia     

Peter Ward  Mick Whitehouse  Mike Meredith  Eugene Murphy  Rachael Shreeve  Rebecca Korb  Jon Watkins  Sally Thorpe  Rachel Woodd-Walker  Andrew Brierley  Nathan Cunningham  Sharon Grant  Doug Bone 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2002,49(12):139

The coupling of physics and biology was examined along a 160 km long transect running out from the north coast of South Georgia Island and crossing the Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (SACCF) during late December 2000. Surface and near surface potential TS properties indicated the presence of three water types: a near-shore group of stations characterised by water which became progressively warmer and fresher closer to South Georgia, an offshore grouping in which sea surface temperatures and those at the winter water level were relatively warm (1.8°C and 0.5°C, respectively), and a third in which surface and winter water temperatures were cooler and reflected the presence of the SACCF. The transect bisected the SACCF twice, revealing that it was flowing in opposite directions, north-westward closest to South Georgia and south-eastwards at its furthest point from the island. The innermost limb was a narrow intense feature located just off the shelf break in 2000–3500 m of water and in which rapid surface baroclinic velocities (up to 35 cm s⁻¹) were encountered. Offshore in the outermost limb, shown subsequently to be a mesoscale eddy that had meandered south from the retroflected limb of the SACCF, flow was broader and slower with peak velocities around 20 cm s⁻¹. Chlorophyll a biomass was generally low (<1 mg m⁻³) over much of the transect but increased dramatically in the region of the innermost limb of the SACCF, where a deepening of the surface mixed layer was coincident with a subsurface chlorophyll maximum (7.4 mg m⁻³) and elevated concentrations down to 100 m. The bloom was coincident with depleted nutrient concentrations, particularly silicate, nitrate and phosphate, and although ammonium concentrations were locally depleted the bloom lay within an elevated band (up to 1.5 mmol m⁻³) associated with the frontal jet. Increased zooplankton abundance, higher copepod body carbon mass and egg production rates all showed a strong spatial integrity with the front. The population structure of the copepods Calanoides acutus and Rhincalanus gigas at stations within the front suggested that rather than simply resulting from entrainment and concentration within the jet, increased copepod abundance was the result of development in situ. Estimates of bloom duration, based on silicate and carbon budget calculations, set the likely duration between 82 and 122 d, a figure supported by the development schedule of the two copepod species. Given this timescale, model outputs from FRAM and OCCAM indicated that particles that occurred on the north side of South Georgia in December would have been in the central-southern Scotia Sea 2–3 months earlier, probably in sea ice affected regions.  相似文献   

Twelve years of tracking 52-Hz whale calls from a unique source in the North Pacific     

William A. Watkins  Mary Ann Daher  Joseph E. George  David Rodriguez 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2004,51(12):1889-1901

A unique whale call with 50–52 Hz emphasis from a single source has been tracked over 12 years in the central and eastern North Pacific. These calls, referred to as 52-Hz calls, were monitored and analyzed from acoustic data recorded by hydrophones of the US Navy Sound Surveillance System (SOSUS) and other arrays. The calls were noticed first in 1989, and have been detected and tracked since 1992. No other calls with similar characteristics have been identified in the acoustic data from any hydrophone system in the North Pacific basin. Only one series of these 52-Hz calls has been recorded at a time, with no call overlap, suggesting that a single whale produced the calls. The calls were recorded from August to February with most in December and January. The species producing these calls is unknown. The tracks of the 52-Hz whale were different each year, and varied in length from 708 to 11,062 km with travel speeds ranging from 0.7 to 3.8 km/h. Tracks included (A) meandering over short ranges, (B) predominantly west-to-east movement, and (C) mostly north-to-south travel. These tracks consistently appeared to be unrelated to the presence or movement of other whale species (blue, fin and humpback) monitored year-round with the same hydrophones.  相似文献   

Simultaneous Multi-angle Observations of Strong Langmuir Turbulence at HAARP     

Naomi Watanabe  Mark Golkowski  James P. Sheerin  Brenton J. Watkins 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2015,116(1):89-100

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Relativistic effects for near-earth satellite orbit determination   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

C. Huang  J. C. Ries  B. D. Tapley  M. M. Watkins 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1990,48(2):167-185

The relativistic formulations for the equations which describe the motion of a near-Earth satellite are compared for two commonly used coordinate reference systems (RS). The discussion describes the transformation between the solar system barycentric RS and both the non-inertial and inertial geocentric RSs. A relativistic correction for the Earth's geopotential expressed in the solar system barycentric RS and the effect of geodesic precession on the satellite orbit in the geocentric RS are derived in detail. The effect of the definition of coordinate time on scale is also examined. A long-arc solution using 3 years of laser range measurements of the motion of the Lageos satellite is used to demonstrate that the effects of relativity formulated in the geocentric RS and in the solar system barycentric RS are equivalent to a high degree of accuracy.  相似文献   

Polynomial expansions in likelihoods for spatial data: A case study     

A. J. Watkins  P. Heatley 《Mathematical Geology》1996,28(8):987-999

This paper illustrates the computational benefits of polynomial representations for quantities in the likelihood function for the spatial linear model based on the power covariance scheme. These benefits include a comprehensive study of likelihoods and maximum likelihood estimators for data. For simplicity, we focus on a relatively simple covariance scheme and data observed at equal intervals along a transect; we briefly indicate how generalizations to more complicated covariance functions and higher dimensions will operate.  相似文献   

A High-Resolution Solar Telescope Using Dark-Lens Diffractive Optics     

Cocks  F.H.  Watkins  S.A.  Walker  M.J.  Lutz  T.A.  Sussingham  J.C. 《Solar physics》2001,198(2):211-222

A telescope based upon dark-lens diffractive optics would be a uniquely new instrument for solar astronomy. The image formation process in such a telescope gives an intrinsically higher resolving power and a greatly reduced image intensity compared to that of refracting or reflecting optical systems of similar lens dimension. This low image intensity would be an advantage for solar observations made using a very large imaging element. After a brief overview of the history of solar instrument development, a quantitative evaluation of the dark-lens diffracting solar telescope concept is presented, showing the potential of this imaging method to meet or even to exceed the most demanding resolution goals currently being considered for future space-borne solar telescopes.  相似文献   

Palaeomagnetism of Cretaceous Dikes from Jamaica     

N. D. Watkins  F. W. Cambray 《Geophysical Journal International》1971,22(2):163-179

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Absence of Correlations between Opaque Petrology and Natural Remanence Polarity in Canary Island Lavas     

J. M. Ade-Hall  N. D. Watkins 《Geophysical Journal International》1970,19(4):351-360

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Palaeomagnetism of the Macaronesian Insular Region: The Cape Verde Islands     

N. D. Watkins  A. Richardson  R. G. Mason 《Geophysical Journal International》1968,16(2):119-140

Palaeomagnetic pole positions have been determined for a collection of igneous rocks, comprising nearly five hundred samples, from the Cape Verde Islands of Santa Antao, Sao Vicente, Sao Nicolao and Sao Tiago. Limited data from the islands of Sal, Maio and Fogo are also presented. Stratigraphic control suggusts that the lavas are overwhelmingly Miocene in age on Sao Tiago and Sao Nicolao. Similarity in the palaeomagnetic pole positions indicates that Miocene lavas are also dominant on Santa Antao and Sao Vicente.
Substantial areas within two of the islands are of reversed polarity only, suggesting either a rapid extrusion rate, or the existence of a long reversed polarity epoch during the Miocene period. The palaeomagnetic pole positions for each island are close to the present geographic pole, excluding the possibility of Post-Miocene differential crustal spreading (or rotation about a vertical axis) in this part of the Atlantic. The palaeomagnetic pole position for the entire survey is consistent with the Miocene geographic pole being removed from, but close to, the present geographic pole; and is in harmony with the European polar wandering curve.  相似文献