青海近35年积雪量变化特征研究     

黄桂玲  王晓雍  丁立善 《青海气象》2018,(3)

利用青海地区50个气象台站春、秋、冬季的积雪深度和温度等气象要素的35a(1979—2013)资料,计算出各年的平均积雪量、温度等序列,再将各气象要素作为因变量,建立一元回归模拟方程,通过计算模拟序列与原序列的各种相关系数以及各年代的平均值,比较其变化的特征,分析其历史演变和年代变化特点。结果表明:青海近35a平均积雪量随时间呈减少趋势,海拔越高,平均积雪量减少的趋势越明显。温度增加的越快,青海积雪量减少的越快,温度上升的趋势越明显,积雪量下降的趋势越明显。  相似文献   

Risk analysis and assessment of overtopping concerning sea dikes in the case of storm surge     

王莉萍  黄桂玲  陈正寿  梁丙臣  刘桂林 《中国海洋工程》2014,28(4):479-487

Risk analysis and assessment relating coastal structures has been one of the hot topics in the area of coastal protection recently. In this paper, from three aspects of joint return period of multiple loads, dike failure rate and dike continuous risk prevention respectively, three new risk analysis methods concerning overtopping of sea dikes are developed. It is worth noting that the factors of storm surge which leads to overtopping are also considered in the three methods. In order to verify and estimate the effectiveness and reliability of the newly developed methods, quantified mutual information is adopted. By means of case testing, it can be found that different prior variables might be selected dividedly, according to the requirement of special engineering application or the dominance of loads. Based on the selection of prior variables, the correlating risk analysis method can be successfully applied to practical engineering.  相似文献