Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for South-Eastern France     

Christophe Martin  Gabriele Ameri  David Baumont  David Carbon  Gloria Senfaute  Jean-Michel Thiry  Ezio Faccioli  Jean Savy 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(6):2477-2511

The accurate evaluation and appropriate treatment of uncertainties is of primary importance in modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). One of the objectives of the SIGMA project was to establish a framework to improve knowledge and data on two target regions characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity. In this paper, for South-Eastern France, we present the final PSHA performed within the SIGMA project. A new earthquake catalogue for France covering instrumental and historical periods was used for the calculation of the magnitude-frequency distributions. The hazard model incorporates area sources, smoothed seismicity and a 3D faults model. A set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from global and regional data, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region, was used to calculate the hazard. The magnitude-frequency distributions, maximum magnitude, faults slip rate and style-of-faulting are considered as additional source of epistemic uncertainties. The hazard results for generic rock condition (Vs30 = 800 m/s) are displayed for 20 sites in terms of uniform hazard spectra at two return periods (475 years and 10,000 years). The contributions of the epistemic uncertainties in the ground motion characterizations and in the seismic source characterization to the total hazard uncertainties are analyzed. Finally, we compare the results with existing models developed at national scale in the framework of the first generation of models supporting the Eurocode 8 enforcement, (MEDD 2002 and AFPS06) and at the European scale (within the SHARE project), highlighting significant discrepancies at short return periods.  相似文献   

Inherited basement canyons: Impact on sediment distribution in the North Atlantic     

Gregers Dam  Martin Snderholm  Erik Vest Srensen 《地学学报》2020,32(4):272-280

Studies of basement‐bounded canyons in West Greenland show that these were long‐lasting features that extended inland for several hundreds of kilometres, acting as prominent sediment conduits sourcing the Albian–Palaeocene Nuussuaq Basin during several phases of basin evolution. The Ilulissat Icefjord canyon was the major conduit for sediment into the basin and provenance data indicate that it had a huge catchment area that extended to East Greenland. The Uparuaqqusuitsut canyon was also an important conduit for sediment in the northern part of the basin. It is suggested that the initial canyon formation occurred during uplift events in the Late Triassic and Late Jurassic when the deeply weathered basement surface formed during Early–Middle Triassic time was eroded. The recognition of these canyons as long‐lasting sediment conduits have huge implications for understanding the sediment distribution, source‐to‐sink studies and the palaeogeography of the North Atlantic basins.  相似文献   

The role of antecedent groundwater heads in controlling transient aquifer storage and flood peak attenuation in karst watersheds     

Patricia Spellman  Jason Gulley  Jonathan B. Martin  Jeremy Loucks 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(1):77-87

Transient storage of floodwaters in aquifers is known to attenuate peak flows in rivers and drive subsurface dissolution. Transient aquifer storage could be enhanced in watersheds overlying karst aquifers where caves facilitate surface and groundwater exchange. Few studies, however, have examined controls on, or magnitudes of, transient aquifer storage or flood peak attenuation in karstic watersheds. Here we evaluate flood peak attenuation with multiple linear regression analyses of 10 years of river and groundwater data from the Suwannee River, which flows over the karstic upper Floridan aquifer in north-central Florida and experiences frequent flooding. Regressions show antecedent river stage exerts the dominant control on magnitudes of transient aquifer storage, with recharge and time to peak having secondary controls. Specifically, low antecedent stages result in larger magnitudes of transient aquifer storage and thus greater flood attenuation than conditions of elevated antecedent stage. These findings suggest subsurface weathering, including cave formation and enlargement, caused by transient aquifer storage could occur on a more frequent basis in aquifers where groundwater table elevation is lowered due to anthropogenic or climatic influences. Our work also shows that measures of groundwater table elevation prior to an event could be used to improve predictive flood models. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Development and magnetic properties of loess-derived forest soils along a precipitation gradient in northern Iran     

Masoumeh POURMASOUMI  Farhad KHORMALI  Shamsollah AYOUBI  Martin KEHL  Farshad KIANI 《山地科学学报》2019,(8)

In order to investigate the development of forest soils formed on loess, six representative modern soil pedons were selected along a precipitation gradient extending from eastern Golestan(mean annual precipitation, MAP = 500 mm)to eastern Mazandaran Provinces(MAP = 800 mm).Physiochemical, micromorphological and magnetic properties, as well as clay mineralogy of soils were studied using standard methods. Soils are mainly classified as Alfisols and Mollisols. Downward decalcification and the subsequent clay illuviation were the main criteria of soil development in all study areas. Pedogenic magnetic susceptibility of pedons studied varied systematically across the precipitation gradient in Northern Iran, increasing from 14.66 ×10~(-8) m~3 kg~(-1) at the eastern part to 83.75 × 10~(-8) m~3 kg~(-1) at the western margin of this transect. The frequencydependent magnetic susceptibility showed an increasing trend with rainfall as well. The micromorphological study of soils indicated that there is a positive relationship between climate gradient (increasing rainfall) and the micromorphological index of soil development(MISECA). The area and thickness of clay coatings showed an increasing trend with rainfall. Grain size analysis indicates that pedogenic processes are responsible for changing original grain size distribution of loess in our soils.The correlation achieved among modern soil properties and precipitation could be applied to the buried paleosols in the whole study area to refer degree of paleosol development and to reconstruct the paleoclimate.  相似文献   

The Dual-Domain Porosity Apparatus: Characterizing Dual Porosity at the Sediment/Water Interface     

Courtney R. Scruggs  Martin Briggs  Frederick D. Day-Lewis  Dale Werkema  John W. Lane Jr 《Ground water》2019,57(4):640-646

The characterization of pore-space connectivity in porous media at the sediment/water interface is critical in understanding contaminant transport and reactive biogeochemical processes in zones of groundwater and surface-water exchange. Previous in situ studies of dual-domain (i.e., mobile/less-mobile porosity) systems have been limited to solute tracer injections at scales of meters to hundreds of meters and subsequent numerical model parameterization using fluid concentration histories. Pairing fine-scale (e.g., sub-meter) geoelectrical measurements with fluid tracer data over time alleviates dependence on flowpath-scale experiments, enabling spatially targeted characterization of shallow sediment/water interface media where biogeochemical reactivity is often high. The Dual-Domain Porosity Apparatus is a field-tested device capable of variable rate-controlled downward flow experiments. The Dual-Domain Porosity Apparatus facilitates inference of dual-domain parameters, i.e., mobile/less-mobile exchange rate coefficient and the ratio of less mobile to mobile porosity. The Dual-Domain Porosity Apparatus experimental procedure uses water electrical conductivity as a conservative tracer of differential loading and flushing of pore spaces within the region of measurement. Variable injection rates permit the direct quantification of the flow-dependence of dual-domain parameters, which has been theorized for decades but remains challenging to assess using existing experimental methodologies.  相似文献   

Testing accretion mechanisms of the H chondrite parent body utilizing nucleosynthetic anomalies     

Sren Grube Pedersen  Martin Schiller  James N. Connelly  Martin Bizzarro 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(6):1215-1227

Planetary bodies a few hundred kilometers in radii are the precursors to larger planets but it is unclear whether these bodies themselves formed very rapidly or accreted slowly over several millions of years. Ordinary H chondrite meteorites provide an opportunity to investigate the accretion time scale of a small planetary body given that variable degrees of thermal metamorphism present in H chondrites provide a proxy for their stratigraphic depth and, therefore, relative accretion times. We exploit this feature to search for nucleosynthetic isotope variability of ⁵⁴Cr, which is a sensitive tracer of spatial and temporal variations in the protoplanetary disk's solids, between 17 H chondrites covering all petrologic types to obtain clues about the parent body accretionary rate. We find no systematic variability in the mass‐biased corrected abundances of ⁵³Cr or ⁵⁴Cr outside of the analytical uncertainties, suggesting very rapid accretion of the H chondrite parent body consistent with turbulent accretion. By utilizing the μ⁵⁴Cr–planetary mass relationship observed between inner solar system planetary bodies, we calculate that the H chondrite accretion occurred at 1.1 ± 0.4 or 1.8 ± 0.2 Myr after the formation of calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions (CAIs), assuming either the initial ²⁶Al/²⁷Al abundance of inner solar system solids determined from angrite meteorites or CAIs from CV chondrites, respectively. Notably, these ages are in agreement with age estimates based on the parent bodies’ thermal evolution when correcting these calculations to the same initial ²⁶Al/²⁷Al abundance, reinforcing the idea of a secular evolution in the isotopic composition of inner disk solids.  相似文献   

Quantifying sand delivery to deep water during changing sea-level: Numerical models from the Quaternary Brazos Icehouse continental margin     

Oriol Falivene  Bradford E. Prather  John Martin 《Basin Research》2020,32(6):1711-1733

Sequence stratigraphy for clastic continental margins predicts the development of sand-rich turbidite deposits during specific times in relation to base-level cycles. It is now widely understood that deltas can extend to the shelf-edge forced by high sediment flux and/or base level, providing a direct connection to transfer sediment and sand to the slope and basin floor even during high base level periods. Herein, we build a stratigraphic forward model for the last 120 kyr of the fluvio-deltaic to deep-water Brazos system (USA) where sediment partitioning along an Icehouse continental margin can be evaluated. The reduced-complexity stratigraphic forward model employs geologically constrained input parameters and mass balance. The modelled architecture is consistent with the location of depositional units previously mapped in the shelf. Sand bypasses the shelf and upper slope between 35 to 15 kyr before present and only about 20%–30% of all the sediment and sand supplied to the system is transferred to deep water. Several scenarios based on the initial Brazos model investigate the relationships between base level and deep-water sand ratio (DWSR). DWSR is defined as the relative amount of sand transferred to the deep-water portions of the system subdivided by the total sand input to the model. Linear correlations between DWSR and base level change rates or base level are very poor. Short-term variability due to local processes (for example avulsions) is superimposed to the long-term trends and mask the base level signal. DWSR for an entire base-level cycle is mainly controlled by the proportion of time the delta stays docked at the shelf-edge. Stratigraphic forward models are useful to complement field observations and quantify how different processes control stratigraphy, which is important for making predictions in areas with limited information.  相似文献   

Tidal response to sea level rise and bathymetric changes in the German Wadden Sea     

Wachler  Benno  Seiffert  Rita  Rasquin  Caroline  Kösters  Frank 《Ocean Dynamics》2020,70(8):1033-1052

Ocean Dynamics - Tidally dominated coasts are directly affected not only by projected rise in mean sea level, but also by changes in tidal dynamics due to sea level rise and bathymetric changes. By...  相似文献   

Deciphering late Devonian–early Carboniferous P–T–t path of mylonitized garnet-mica schists from Prins Karls Forland,Svalbard     

Karolina Kośmińska  Frank S. Spear  Jarosław Majka  Karol Faehnrich  Maciej Manecki  Karsten Piepjohn  Winfried K. Dallmann 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2020,38(5):471-493

Quartz-in-garnet inclusion barometry integrated with trace element thermometry and calculated phase relations is applied to mylonitized schists of the Pinkie unit cropping out on the island of Prins Karls Forland, western part of the Svalbard Archipelago. This approach combines conventional and novel techniques and allows deciphering of the pressure–temperature (P–T) evolution of mylonitic rocks, for which the P–T conditions could not have been easily deciphered using traditional methods. The results obtained suggest that rocks of the Pinkie unit were metamorphosed under amphibolite facies conditions at 8–10 kbar and 560–630°C and mylonitized at ~500 to 550°C and 9–11 kbar. The P–T results are coupled with in-situ Th–U-total Pb monazite dating, which records amphibolite facies metamorphism at c. 359–355 Ma. This is the very first evidence of late Devonian–early Carboniferous metamorphism in Svalbard and it implies that the Ellesmerian Orogeny on Svalbard was associated with metamorphism up to amphibolite facies conditions. Thus, it can be concluded that the Ellesmerian collision between the Franklinian margin of Laurentia and Pearya and Svalbard caused not only commonly accepted brittle deformation and weak greenschist facies metamorphism, but also a burial and deformation of rock complexes at much greater depths at elevated temperatures.  相似文献   

A Holocene high-resolution record of aquatic productivity,seasonal anoxia and meromixis from varved sediments of Lake Łazduny,North-Eastern Poland: insight from a novel multi-proxy approach     

Andrea Sanchini  Sönke Szidat  Wojciech Tylmann  Hendrik Vogel  Agnieszka Wacnik  Martin Grosjean 《第四纪科学杂志》2020,35(8):1070-1080

Anthropogenic eutrophication and spreading anoxia in freshwater systems is a global concern. Little is known about anoxia in earlier historic times under weaker human impact, or under prehistoric natural conditions with different trophic, land cover and climatic regimes. We use a novel approach that combines high-resolution hyperspectral imaging with µ-XRF and HPLC-pigment data, which allows us to assess chloropigments (productivity) and bacteriopigments (anoxia) at seasonal subvarve-scale resolution. Our ~9700 cal a bp varved sediment record from NE Poland suggests that productivity increased stepwise from oligotrophic Early Holocene conditions (until ~9200 cal a bp ) to mesotrophic conditions in the Mid- and Late Holocene. Natural eutrophication was mainly a function of progressing landscape evolution with intense weathering under dense forest and warm-moist climatic conditions. Generally, anoxia increased with increasing productivity. Seasonal anoxia and some multi-decadal periods of meromixis were the common mixing patterns throughout the Holocene except for a period of persisting meromixis between ~5200 and 2000 cal a bp. Anthropogenic deforestation around 400 cal a bp resulted in substantially better lake oxygenation despite high productivity. In this small lake, aquatic productivity and lakeshore forest cover (wind shield) were more important factors controlling oxic/anoxic conditions than Holocene temperature variability.  相似文献