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In the recent paper by J.P. Le Roux [Coastal Engineering 54 (2007) 271–277], the author provides a simplified approach to calculating the depth, length, and height of waves at the onset of depth-induced breaking (i.e. at the breaker line). However, the proposed methodology and the comparisons to other methods suffer from a large number of inconsistencies and basic calculation errors. In addition, there are a number of erroneous physical interpretations and many of the conclusions are based on erroneous data. The remaining conclusions are either not new or based on circular logic, such as to render them moot. In the following, we will not attempt to point out all the errors or inconsistencies that we found, instead we focus on major points of contention. 相似文献
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Peter J. Smith Mike Page Sean J. Handley S. Margaret McVeagh Merrick Ekins 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(4):347-355
A colonial ascidian was first reported by marine farmers in Houhora Harbour, Northland, New Zealand in early 2005 and subsequently found on oyster racks in Parengarenga Harbour and the Bay of Islands. The Northland ascidian was identified with a combination of morphological characters and DNA cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) sequence data, as Eudistoma elongatum, a species native to Australia, where it is found from northern New South Wales to Northern Queensland, and distinguished from Eudistoma circumvallatum, the only reported species in this genus from New Zealand. Ascidian larvae are weak dispersers and long distance dispersal of E. elongatum is likely to be enhanced by vectors such as oyster barges and/or movement of cultured oysters. In its native range, E. elongatum is restricted to areas with a minimum winter sea temperature of 16°C. Assuming similar biological limitations apply in New Zealand, the spread of E. elongatum might be restricted to northern New Zealand (north of latitude 37°S). 相似文献
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Legal commitments to reduce CO2 emissions require policy makers to find cost-efficient means to meet these obligations. Marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves, which illustrate the economics associated with climate change mitigation, have recently attracted a great amount of attention. A number of limitations with MAC curves are explained by the implication they should be just one tool in a broader set of decision-making aids used in assessing climate policy. MAC curves, for example, omit ancillary benefits of greenhouse gas emission abatement, treat uncertainty in a limited manner, exclude intertemporal dynamics and lack the necessary transparency concerning their assumptions. MAC curves based on the individual assessment of abatement measures suffer from additional shortcomings such as the non-consideration of interactions and non-financial costs, a possibly inconsistent baseline, double counting and limited treatment of behavioural aspects. Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation exhibit many of the above-mentioned problems, making it particularly difficult to capture in a cost curve. Policy makers should therefore be cautious when interpreting MAC curves, pay attention to the underlying assumptions, consider non-financial costs and be aware of the important uncertainties and underlying path dependencies. 相似文献
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Gunnar Luderer Volker Krey Katherine Calvin James Merrick Silvana Mima Robert Pietzcker Jasper Van Vliet Kenichi Wada 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):427-441
This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy (RE) in climate change mitigation. Currently RE supplies almost 20 % of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, renewables are the most important long-term mitigation option for power supply. Wind energy is competitive even without climate policy, whereas the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV) are highly contingent on the ambitiousness of climate policy. Bioenergy is an important and versatile energy carrier; however—with the exception of low temperature heat—there is less scope for renewables other than biomass for non-electric energy supply. Despite the important role of wind and solar power in climate change mitigation scenarios with full technology availability, limiting their deployment has a relatively small effect on mitigation costs, if nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS)—which can serve as substitutes in low-carbon power supply—are available. Limited bioenergy availability in combination with limited wind and solar power by contrast, results in a more substantial increase in mitigation costs. While a number of robust insights emerge, the results on renewable energy deployment levels vary considerably across the models. An in-depth analysis of a subset of EMF27 reveals substantial differences in modeling approaches and parameter assumptions. To a certain degree, differences in model results can be attributed to different assumptions about technology costs, resource potentials and systems integration. 相似文献
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Beach Wizard: Nearshore bathymetry estimation through assimilation of model computations and remote observations 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Ap van Dongeren Nathaniel Plant Anna Cohen Dano Roelvink Merrick C. Haller Patricio Cataln 《Coastal Engineering》2008,55(12):1016-1027
A data–model assimilation method (called “Beach Wizard”) is presented with which the nearshore subtidal bathymetry can be accurately estimated based on video-derived observations of wave roller dissipation and variation of the intertidal shoreline, and/or radar-derived observations of wave celerity. Using many consecutive images, these observed properties are compared with numerical model results, and through a simple, optimal least-squares estimator approach the estimated bathymetry is adjusted gradually for each image in order to improve the fit between model output and observations. The key advantages of the technique are that it is based on multiple sources of information (i.e., different remote sensors and/or data products), depends on only a few free parameters (to which the model results are insensitive), and shows good skill. Herein, the technique is applied to a synthetic case and two sets of field data from sites at Duck, NC (USA) and Egmond (The Netherlands). The method, which may be extended with observations of other properties from other sources than the three described in this paper, can deliver coastal state information (i.e., simultaneous updates of bathymetry, waves, and currents) with high temporal and spatial resolution and can be used in conjunction with or instead of in-situ measured data. 相似文献
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In the response given by Le Roux [Le Roux, J.P., 2008. A simple method to determine breaker height and depth for different deepwater wave height/length ratios and sea floor slopes — Reply to discussion by M.C. Haller and P.C. Catalan, Coast. Eng. 55, 185–188] to the discussion of Haller and Catalán [Haller, M.C., Catalan, P.A., 2008. Discussion of “A simple method to determine breaker height and depth for different deepwater wave height/length ratios and sea floor slopes”, by J.P. Le Roux [Coastal Engineering 54 (2007) 271–277], Coast. Eng. 55, 181–184], the author presents a defense of the large number of inconsistencies/errors that we pointed out in regards to the earlier work of Le Roux [Le, Roux, J.P., 2007. A simple method to determine breaker height and depth for different wave height/length ratios and sea floor slopes, Coast. Eng. 54, 271–277]. We appreciate the response for the fact that it further clarifies the lines of reasoning used in the previous work. Unfortunately, we are not convinced by the defenses offered and still posit that the original work contains many inconsistencies and downright calculation errors. We try to avoid repetition herein, and instead of rehashing all of the points made in our previous discussion, we will concentrate on a few fundamental problems that undermine the whole premise of the original paper. We feel it is important to make these clear to the readers of Coastal Engineering. 相似文献
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A number of existing models for surface wave phase speeds (linear and non-linear, breaking and non-breaking waves) are reviewed and tested against phase speed data from a large-scale laboratory experiment. The results of these tests are utilized in the context of assessing the potential improvement gained by incorporating wave non-linearity in phase speed based depth inversions. The analysis is focused on the surf zone, where depth inversion accuracies are known to degrade significantly. The collected data includes very high-resolution remote sensing video and surface elevation records from fixed, in-situ wave gages. Wave phase speeds are extracted from the remote sensing data using a feature tracking technique, and local wave amplitudes are determined from the wave gage records and used for comparisons to non-linear phase speed models and for non-linear depth inversions. A series of five different regular wave conditions with a range of non-linearity and dispersion characteristics are analyzed and results show that a composite dispersion relation, which includes both non-linearity and dispersion effects, best matches the observed phase speeds across the domain and hence, improves surf zone depth estimation via depth inversions. Incorporating non-linearity into the phase speed model reduces errors to O(10%), which is a level previously found for depth inversions with small amplitude waves in intermediate water depths using linear dispersion. Considering the controlled conditions and extensive ground truth, this appears to be a practical limit for phase speed-based depth inversions. Finally, a phase speed sensitivity analysis is performed that indicates that typical nearshore sand bars should be resolvable using phase speed depth inversions. However, increasing wave steepness degrades the sensitivity of this inversion method. 相似文献
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Matthew Winning James Price Paul Ekins Steve Pye James Glynn Jim Watson 《Climate Policy》2019,19(8):947-958
Current country-level commitments under the Paris Agreement fall short of putting the world on a required trajectory to stay below a 2°C temperature increase compared to pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Therefore, the timing of increased ambition is hugely important and as such this paper analyses the impact of both the short and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement on global emissions and economic growth. Using the hybrid TIAM-UCL-MSA model we consider the achievement of a 2°C target against a baseline of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) while also considering the timing of increased ambition of the NDCs by 2030 and the impacts of cost reductions of key low-carbon technologies. We find that the rate of emissions reduction ambition required between 2030 and 2050 is almost double when the NDCs are achieved but not ratcheted up until 2030, and leads to lower levels of economic growth throughout the rest of the century. However, if action is taken immediately and is accompanied by increasingly rapid low-carbon technology cost reductions, then there is almost no difference in GDP compared to the path suggested by the current NDC commitments.
Key policy insights
Delaying the additional action needed to achieve the 2°C target until 2030 is shown to require twice the rate of emissions reductions between 2030 and 2050.
Total cumulative GDP over the century is lower when additional action is delayed to 2030 and therefore has an overall negative impact on the economy, even without including climate change damages.
Increased ratcheting of the NDC commitments should therefore be undertaken sooner rather than later, starting in conjunction with the 2023 Global Stocktake.
Early action combined with cost reductions in key renewable energy technologies can reduce GDP losses to minimal levels (<1%).
A 2°C future with technological advancements is clearly possible for a similar cost as a 3.3°C world without these advances, but with lower damages and losses from climate change.
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This paper uses the MERGE integrated assessment model to identify the least-cost mitigation strategy for achieving a range of climate policies. Mitigation is measured in terms of GDP foregone. This is not a benefit-cost analysis. No attempt is made to calculate the reduction in damages brought about by a particular policy. Assumptions are varied regarding the availability of energy-producing and energy-using technologies. We find pathways with substantial reductions in temperature change, with the cost of reductions varying significantly, depending on policy and technology assumptions. The set of scenarios elucidates the potential energy system transformation demands that could be placed on society. We find that policy that allows for “overshoot” of a radiative forcing target during the century results in lower costs, but also a higher temperature at the end of the century. We explore the implications of the costs and availability of key mitigation technologies, including carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy, and their combination, known as BECS, as well as nuclear and energy efficiency. The role of “negative emissions” via BECS in particular is examined. Finally, we demonstrate the implications of nationally adopted emissions timetables based on articulated goals as a counterpoint to a global stabilization approach. 相似文献
10.
Ticona Rollano Fadia Brown Adam Ellenson Ashley Özkan-Haller H. Tuba Thomson Jim Haller Merrick C. 《Ocean Dynamics》2019,69(10):1165-1179
Ocean Dynamics - In the presence of strong winds, ocean surface waves dissipate significant amounts of energy by breaking. Here, breaking rates and wave-following turbulent dissipation rate... 相似文献
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