Prediction of river water temperature: a comparison between a new family of hybrid models and statistical approaches          下载免费PDF全文

Sebastiano Piccolroaz  Elisa Calamita  Bruno Majone  Aurélien Gallice  Annunziato Siviglia  Marco Toffolon 《水文研究》2016,30(21):3901-3917

River water temperature is a key physical variable controlling several chemical, biological and ecological processes. Its reliable prediction is a main issue in many environmental applications, which however is hampered by data scarcity, when using data‐demanding deterministic models, and modelling limitations, when using simpler statistical models. In this work we test a suite of models belonging to air2stream family, which are characterized by a hybrid formulation that combines a physical derivation of the key equation with a stochastic calibration of parameters. The air2stream models rely solely on air temperature and streamflow, and are of similar complexity as standard statistical models. The performances of the different versions of air2stream in predicting river water temperature are compared with those of the most common statistical models typically used in the literature. To this aim, a dataset of 38 Swiss rivers is used, which includes rivers classified into four different categories according to their hydrological characteristics: low‐land natural rivers, lake outlets, snow‐fed rivers and regulated rivers. The results of the analysis provide practical indications regarding the type of model that is most suitable to simulate river water temperature across different time scales (from daily to seasonal) and for different hydrological regimes. A model intercomparison exercise suggests that the family of air2stream hybrid models generally outperforms statistical models, while cross‐validation conducted over a 30‐year period indicates that they can be suitably adopted for long‐term analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Modelling the relationship between sexual reproduction and rhizome growth in Posidonia oceanica (L.) Delile     

Sebastiano Calvo  Gianfranco Lovison  Maria Pirrotta  Germana Di Maida  Agostino Tomasello  & Mariangela Sciandra 《Marine Ecology》2006,27(4):361-371

The relationship between flowering and growth performance of Posidonia oceanica (L.) Delile in meadows distributed along the south‐eastern coast of Sicily (Italy) was investigated by means of a statistical model (generalized linear mixed model) combined with the lepidochronological analysis. Over a 28‐year period, 67 floral stalk remains were observed. The highest flowering index was recorded in lepidochronological year 1998 (10.1%) and the Inflorescence Frequency per age showed a clear decrease corresponding to 15‐year‐old shoots. The sexual reproductive event had positive effects on rhizome elongation (cm year^?1) and leaf production (no. leaves year^?1) in the same flowering year, whilst no effect on the rhizome production (mg year^?1) was observed. Rhizome growth variables showed significant negative lagged responses in the two years following flowering. On the whole, we calculated that the effect exerted by flowering, in terms of loss on rhizome elongation and production, was about 27% and 38%, respectively. Although it has been demonstrated that recovery from the stress induced by sexual reproduction is limited to the two years after flowering, the magnitude of the reproductive cost may become quite considerable especially in comparison with the whole lifespan of individual shoots.  相似文献   

Numerical modelling of the effects of foundation scour on the response of a bridge pier     

Ciancimino  Andrea  Anastasopoulos  Ioannis  Foti  Sebastiano  Gajo  Alessandro 《Acta Geotechnica》2022,17(9):3697-3717

Foundation scour can have a detrimental effect on the performance of bridge piers, inducing a significant reduction of the lateral capacity of the footing and accumulation of permanent settlement and rotation. Although the hydraulic processes responsible for foundation scour are nowadays well known, predicting their mechanical consequences is still challenging. Indeed, its impact on the failure mechanisms developing around the foundation has not been fully investigated. In this paper, numerical simulations are performed to study the vertical and lateral response of a scoured bridge pier founded on a cylindrical caisson foundation embedded in a layer of dense sand. The sand stress–strain behaviour is reproduced by employing the Severn-Trent model. The constitutive model is firstly calibrated on a set of soil element tests, including drained and undrained monotonic triaxial tests and resonant column tests. The calibration procedure is implemented considering the stress and strain nonuniformities within the samples, by simulating the laboratory tests as boundary value problems. The numerical model is then validated against the results of centrifuge tests. The results of the simulations are in good agreement with the experimental results in terms of foundation capacity and settlement accumulation. Moreover, the model can predict the effects of local and general scour. The numerical analyses also highlight the impact of scouring on the failure mechanisms, revealing that the soil resistance depends on the hydraulic scenario.

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Resting Stages of Plankton in Recent North Adriatic Sediments   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Fernando Rubino  Genuario Belmonte  Anna M. Miglietta  Sebastiano Geraci  & Ferdinando Boero 《Marine Ecology》2000,21(3-4):263-284

Abstract. Plankton-derived resting stages were found in 26 sediment cores collected in the North Adriatic Sea; 46 morphotypes were identified, 38 were attributed to taxa according to their morphology and, in some hatching cases, also according to the morphology of the derived active forms. Six species of Dinophyta were recorded for the first time from the North Adriatic Sea. Each morphotype was described in detail. Twenty-nine resting stages were Dinophyta; one was a Chrysophyta; two were Tintinnina; and six were metazoans. At every site Dinophyta cysts were more abundant than Metazoa cysts. Cyst bank densities were variable, with empty forms generally more abundant than full ones; cyst concentrations were highest at the mouth of the Po River delta.  相似文献   

Multi-offset phase analysis of surface wave data (MOPA)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Claudio Strobbia  Sebastiano Foti   《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2006,59(4):300-313

Inaccuracy in the shear wave velocity profile inverted from surface wave data manifests from both modelling error and data uncertainty. An alternative method for dispersion curve evaluation by weighted linear regression of phase-offset data can be applied to both equispaced and non-equispaced data for objective identification of these often overlooked error sources.From field data, near-field effects are noted to at most half a wavelength and lateral discontinuities identified by marked changes in wavenumber with offset. Transition frequencies to dominant higher modes appear lower than when identified from standard plane-wave transform methods. Effects can be discriminated by their frequency, position or offset dependence.When a non-corrupt dispersion curve is extracted, the errors are up to 5% at low frequency. Through theoretical Gaussian error propagation analysis, the resulting shear wave velocity profile shows up to 18% uncertainty at depth.  相似文献   

Decoupled seismic analysis of an earth dam   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Ernesto Cascone  Sebastiano Rampello 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2003,23(5):349-365

The seismic stability of an earth dam is evaluated via the decoupled displacement analysis using the accelerograms obtained by ground response analysis to compute the earthquake-induced displacements. The response analysis of the dam is carried out under both 1D and 2D conditions, incorporating the non-linear soil behaviour through the equivalent linear method. Ten artificial and five real accelerograms were used as input motions and four different depths were assumed for the bedrock.1D and 2D response analyses were in a fair agreement with the exception of the top third of the dam where only a 2D modelling of the problem could ensure that the acceleration field is properly described. The acceleration amplification ratio obtained in the 2D analyses was equal to about 2 in all the cases considered, consistently with data from real case histories.The maximum permanent displacements computed by the sliding block analysis were small, being less than 10% of the service freeboard; a satisfactory performance of the dam can then be envisaged for any of the seismic scenarios considered in the analyses.  相似文献   

Levels of chlorinated hydrocarbons in marine animals from the central Mediterranean     

Vincenzo Amico  Giuseppe Impellizzeri  Giovanna Oriente  Mario Piattelli  Sebastiano Sciuto  Corrado Tringali 《Marine pollution bulletin》1979,10(10):282-284

Concentrations of chlorinated hydrocarbons (DDT and metabolites, PCBs, aldrin, dieldrin, HCB and BHCs) have been determined in the tissues of five species of marine animals sampled in selected areas of the central Mediterranean.  相似文献   

Gravitation astrometric measurement experiment     

Mario Gai  Alberto Vecchiato  Sebastiano Ligori  Alessandro Sozzetti  Mario G. Lattanzi 《Experimental Astronomy》2012,34(2):165-180

The Gravitation Astrometric Measurement Experiment (GAME) is a mission concept based on astronomical techniques (astrometry and coronagraphy) for Fundamental Physics measurements, namely the ?? and ?? parameters of the Parametrized Post-Newtonian formulation of gravitation theories extending the General Relativity. The science case also addresses cosmology, extra-solar planets, Solar System objects and fundamental stellar parameters. The mission concept is described, including the measurement approach and the instrument design.  相似文献   

Georisks in the Mediterranean and their mitigation     

D&#;Amico  Sebastiano  Galea  Pauline  Borg  Ruben P.  Bonello  Marc 《Natural Hazards》2017,86(2):199-202

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A first order evaluation of the capacity of a healthcare network under emergency     

Cimellaro  Gian Paolo  Marasco  Sebastiano  Noori  Ali Zamani  Mahin  Stephen A. 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2019,18(3):663-677

Immediately after an earthquake a healthcare system within a city, comprising several hospitals, endures an extraordinary demand. This paper proposes a new methodology to estimate whether the hospital network has enough capacity to withstand the emergency caused by an earthquake. The ability of healthcare facilities and to provide a broad spectrum of emergency services immediately after a seismic event is assessed through a metamodel that assumes waiting time as main response parameter to assess the hospital network performance. The First Aid network of San Francisco subjected to a 7.2 Mw magnitude earthquake has been used as case study. The total number of injuries and their distributions among the six major San Francisco's Emergency Departments have been assessed and compared with their capacity that has been determined using a survey conducted by the medical staff of the hospitals. The numerical results have shown that three of the six considered San Francisco's hospitals cannot provide emergency services to the estimated injured. Two alternatives have been proposed to improve the performance of the network. The first one redistributes existing resources while the second one considers additional resources by designing a new Emergency Department.  相似文献