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Cyanobacterial blooms occur frequently in lakes due to eutrophication. Although a number of models have been proposed to forecast algal blooms, a good and applicable method is still lacking. This study explored a simple and effective mathematical-ecological model to evaluate the growth status and predict the population dynamics of Microcystis blooms. In this study, phytoplankton were collected and identified from 8 sampling sites in Chaohu Lake every month from July to October, 2010. The niche breadth and niche overlap of common species were calculated using standard equations, and the potential relative growth rates of Microcystis were calculated as a weighted-value of niche overlap. In July, the potential relative growth rate was 2.79 (a.u., arbitrary units) but then rapidly declined in the following months to -3.99 a.u. in September. A significant correlation (R=0.998, P<0.01) was found in the model between the net-increase in biomass of Microcystis in the field and the predicted values calculated by the niche model, we concluded that the niche model is suitable for forecasting the dynamics of Microcystis blooms. Redundancy analysis indicated that decreases in water temperature, dissolved oxygen and total dissolved phosphorus might be major factors underlying bloom decline. Based on the theory of community succession being caused by resource competition, the growth and decline of blooms can be predicted from a community structure. This may provide a basis for early warning and control of algal blooms. 相似文献
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Eutrophication has become a serious concern in many lakes, resulting in cyanobacterial blooms. However, the mechanism and pathways of cyanobacteria decline are less understood. To identify and define the growth and decline of Microcystis blooms in Taihu Lake of China, and to illuminate the destination of surface floating blooms, we investigated the biomass distribution and variations in colony size, morphology, and floating velocity from October 2008 to September 2009. The results showed that the Microcystis bloom declined in response to biomass decrease, colony disaggregation, buoyancy reduction, and increased phytoplankton biodiversity, and these indicative parameters could be applied for recognition of the development phases of the bloom. Three major decline pathways were proposed to describe the bloom decline process, colony disaggregation (Pathway Ⅰ), colony settlement (Pathway Ⅱ), and cell lysis in colonies (Pathway Ⅲ). We proposed a strategy to define the occurrence and decline of Microcystis blooms, to evaluate the survival state under different stress conditions, and to indicate the efficiency of controlling countermeasures against algal blooms. 相似文献
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