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1.
利用天气观测资料和NCEP再分析资料对2004-2013年5-9月影响山东的切变线天气特征和环流形势进行了分析。将影响山东的切变线按热力性质分为冷切变线和暖切变线,10a间影响山东的切变线共发生59次,其中暖切变线出现43次,占切变线总发生次数73%;冷切变线出现16次,占切变线总发生次数27%。切变线发生频数7月最多,6月次之,分别占切变线总数的35.6%和23.7%,9月最少,约占0.05%。影响山东典型切变线的发生与副高关系密切,冷切变线多出现在西风槽东移受阻,在对流层低层逐渐形成,暖切变线则出现在西风带小高压与副高合并,副高北抬时形成。针对2次典型冷暖切变线暴雨天气过程对比分析其暴雨落区、雷达回波特征和动力机制等,结果发现:暖切变线降水的强度、暴雨范围和持续时间明显大于冷切变线降水。暖切变线暴雨的GPS可降水量在强降雨出现前8h快速上升,可降水量峰值对应地面降雨大值,对地面降雨变化反映不敏感,物理量呈垂直分布,强回波单体基本位于暖切变线雨带的中间。冷切变线暴雨的GPS可降水量短时间内增幅大,地面强降雨在峰值出现1h后发生,对地面降雨变化反映较敏感,物理量从低层到高层向北倾斜且上升运动区较深厚,回波单体位于切变线南侧。  相似文献   
2.
谱模式T63L9正规模初值化方案及试验   总被引:3,自引:3,他引:3  
付顺旗  张立凤  张铭 《大气科学》2001,25(5):661-675
推导了全球谱模式T63L9的正规模,对求得的垂直和水平正规模做了分析,与其他文献进行了比较.在此基础上,为其资料四维同化系统研制了一套合适的绝热非线性正规模初值化方案,并进行了一系列试验.分析表明:方案的研制是成功的,它有效地消除了模式早期积分中虚假的高频振荡,明显改进了短期预报的效果;初值化不仅对随后的一次预报有明显的改进,而且通过同化循环,提高了整个资料同化和预报的质量.  相似文献   
3.
Wave overtopping nearshore coastal structures, such as shore-parallel breakwaters, can significantly alter the current circulation and sediment transport patterns around the structures, which in turn affects the formation of tombolos and salients in the nearshore area. This paper describes the implementation of a wave overtopping module into an existing depth-averaged coastal morphological mode: COAST2D and model applications to investigate the effect of wave overtopping on the hydrodynamics and morphodynamics around a group of shore-parallel breakwaters. The hydrodynamic aspects of the model were validated against a series of laboratory conditions. The model was then applied to a study site at Sea Palling, Norfolk, UK, where 9 shore-parallel segmented breakwaters including 4 surface-piercing and 5 low-crested breakwaters are present, for the storm conditions in Nov 2006. The model results were compared with laboratory data and field measurements, showing a good agreement on both hydrodynamics and morphological changes. Further analysis of wave overtopping effect on the nearshore hydrodynamics and morphodynamics reveals that wave overtopping has significant impacts on the nearshore circulation, sediment transport and the resulting morphological changes within such a complex breakwater scheme under the storm and macro-tide conditions. The results indicate the importance of including the wave overtopping in modelling nearshore morphodynamics with the presence of coastal structures.  相似文献   
4.
按照纵向发展时序对国内外公共服务设施空间布局研究的视角、方法和主题进行了梳理。结果表明:国外研究主题历经了区位选择和布局模式、空间布局的公平性和可达性、布局的社会分异及其形成机制等的演变;研究视角从单纯的计量地理发展到与经济学、社会学等多学科交叉;研究方法从构建模型发展到与GIS结合等多种方法集成等。相比之下,国内研究差距明显,主要表现在研究视角欠缺多学科的交叉融合,方法多借鉴国外,缺乏创新,主题较为局限。最后提出未来研究应该多关注以下5方面:丰富可达性的内涵进行公平性度量;在以人为本的基础上整合配套多设施协同布局;注重设施的应时性和可变性;在大数据背景下开展小尺度的实证研究;植根中国实际,研究对象转向农村地区以及城市边缘区。  相似文献   
5.
In this paper, we investigate changes in the wave climate of the west-European shelf seas under global warming scenarios. In particular, climate change wind fields corresponding to the present (control) time-slice 1961–2000 and the future (scenario) time-slice 2061–2100 are used to drive a wave generation model to produce equivalent control and scenario wave climate. Yearly and seasonal statistics of the scenario wave climates are compared individually to the corresponding control wave climate to identify relative changes of statistical significance between present and future extreme and prevailing wave heights. Using global, regional and linked global–regional wind forcing over a set of nested computational domains, this paper further demonstrates the sensitivity of the results to the resolution and coverage of the forcing. It suggests that the use of combined forcing from linked global and regional climate models of typical resolution and coverage is a good option for the investigation of relative wave changes in the region of interest of this study. Coarse resolution global forcing alone leads to very similar results over regions that are highly exposed to the Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, fine resolution regional forcing alone is shown to be insufficient for exploring wave climate changes over the western European waters because of its limited coverage. Results obtained with the combined global–regional wind forcing showed some consistency between scenarios. In general, it was shown that mean and extreme wave heights will increase in the future only in winter and only in the southwest of UK and west of France, north of about 44–45° N. Otherwise, wave heights are projected to decrease, especially in summer. Nevertheless, this decrease is dominated by local wind waves whilst swell is found to increase. Only in spring do both swell and local wind waves decrease in average height.  相似文献   
6.
中期数值天气预报业务的回顾与展望   总被引:4,自引:3,他引:1  
付顺旗  张立凤 《气象科学》1999,19(1):104-110
本文回顾了近年来国内外中期数值天气预报业务的新进展,简略地介绍了当今国外(以欧洲中期天气预报中心为主)和我国中期数值天气预报业务系统。最后对未来中期数值天气预报的发展作一展望,指出其未来发展的主要方向。  相似文献   
7.
利用大气观测、探测及污染物探测资料、NCEP再分析资料和GDAS资料,对2013年10月26—29日一次持续性重霾天气过程中的气象要素和气溶胶演变特征进行分析。结果表明:本次持续性霾天气过程中,临沂地区PM_(2.5)污染严重,大气中PM_(2.5)的小时平均浓度工业区城区郊区,污染最严重时分别为365,344,284μg·m~(-3);较小的地面平均风速及PM_(2.5)浓度的稳定上升和较低的地面湿度为本次霾天气过程的形成和发展提供了有利条件;当临沂地区以南风或西南风为主时,市区霾天气加重,上游空气污染具有平流输送特征。贴地逆温层的形成,导致污染物在低空不断积累,造成污染浓度的持续升高。地方政府应加快产业结构调整,控制企业的污染物排放,才是治理雾霾的根本办法。  相似文献   
8.
滨海湿地是雁鸭类水鸟的重要栖息地,然而高强度的海岸圈围工程对滨海湿地生态系统和鸟类栖息地造成了显著影响,因此分析和研究海岸圈围对雁鸭类水鸟种群及栖息地的影响,对水鸟保护和滨海湿地资源可持续利用具有重要的理论和实践意义。位于长江口的横沙东滩,于2003年启动了海岸圈围促淤工程,工程的实施导致湿地生境和水鸟种群都发生着快速变化。本研究分别对2013、2015、2016和2017年,横沙东滩雁鸭类水鸟种群和生境因子的时空变化进行了调查与分析,通过拟合回归分析得到两者的相关关系,进一步探讨海岸圈围后生境的快速演替对雁鸭类水鸟种群产生的影响,从而提出海岸带圈围后水鸟栖息地的保护与管理对策。结果表明:1)海岸圈围工程的实施显著改变了滨海湿地的水鸟生境及种群特征。随着工程的推进,自然潮滩的盐沼湿地呈动态变化趋势;促淤区则随着泥沙的补给,新生了大面积的沼泽湿地;成陆区逐渐向淡水生态系统演替。伴随着生境的变化,雁鸭类水鸟种群逐渐从成陆区和自然潮滩向促淤区转移。2)不同生境类型影响雁鸭类种群数量特征的生境因子不同。未实施圈围的自然潮滩影响雁鸭类水鸟数量的主要因素是海三棱藨草/藨草群落面积;正在实施圈围的促淤区的主要影响因素是挺水植物面积、植被归一化指数(NDVI)和无植被覆盖水域面积;已圈围的成陆区主要影响因素为沉水植物面积。综上,雁鸭类水鸟偏向选择具有开阔水域、充足食物供给和相对较低植被盖度的生境类型。对于海岸圈围区域,若能合理利用圈围土地,保留部分区域为湿地,并根据水鸟的生境需求,适当营造水鸟适宜的栖息地,可在一定程度上减缓圈围工程对水鸟的影响,实现滨海湿地水鸟栖息地保护和湿地资源可持续利用的动态平衡。  相似文献   
9.
本文介绍了广州市连续运行参与站系统(GZCORS)和广州市似大地水准面精化成果确立的广州市城市三维定位系统在地形图测量中的应用,并通过实例分析其精度。  相似文献   
10.
  Hanghang  Zhu  Jianrong  Chen  Qing  Li  Ming  Pan  Shunqi  Chen  Shenliang 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2023,41(1):38-56

Estuarine projects can change local topography and influence water transport and saltwater intrusion. The Changjiang (Yangtze) River estuary is a multichannel estuary, and four major reclamation projects have been implemented in the Changjiang River estuary in recent years: the Xincun Shoal reclamation project (RP-XCS), the Qingcao Shoal reclamation project (RP-QCS), the Eastern Hengsha Shoal reclamation project (RP-EHS), and the Nanhui Shoal reclamation project (RP-NHS). The effects of the four reclamation projects and each project on the saltwater intrusion and water resources in the Changjiang River estuary were simulated in a 3D numerical model. Results show that for a multichannel estuary, local reclamation projects change the local topography and water diversion ratio (WDR) between channels and influence water and salt transport and freshwater utilization in the estuary. During spring tide, under the cumulative effect of the four reclamation projects, the salinity decreases by approximately 0.5 in the upper reaches of the North Branch and increases by 0.5–1.0 in the middle and lower reaches of the North Branch. In the North Channel, the salinity decreases by approximately 0.5. In the North Passage, the salinity increases by 0.5–1.0. In the South Passage, the salinity increases by approximately 0.5 in the upper reaches and decreases by 0.2–0.5 on the north side of the middle and lower reaches. During neap tide, the cumulative effects of the four reclamation projects and the individual projects are similar to those during spring tide, but there are some differences. The effects of an individual reclamation project on WDR and saltwater intrusion during spring and neap tides are simulated and analyzed in detail. The cumulative effect of the four reclamation projects favors freshwater usage in the Changjiang River estuary.

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