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A multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Marc J. Metzger Rik Leemans Dagmar Schrter 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2005,7(4):253-267
Terrestrial ecosystems provide a number of vital services for people and society, such as food, fibre, water resources, carbon sequestration, and recreation. The future capability of ecosystems to provide these services is determined by changes in socio-economic factors, land use, atmospheric composition, and climate. Most impact assessments do not quantify the vulnerability of ecosystems and ecosystem services under such environmental change. They cannot answer important policy-relevant questions such as 'Which are the main regions or sectors that are most vulnerable to global change?’ 'How do the vulnerabilities of two regions compare?’ 'Which scenario is the least harmful for a sector?’This paper describes a new approach to vulnerability assessment developed by the Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling (ATEAM) project. Different ecosystem models, covering biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, and carbon sequestration are fed with the same Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Each model gives insights into specific ecosystems, as in traditional impact assessments. Moreover, by integrating the results in a vulnerability assessment, the policy-relevant questions listed above can also be addressed. A statistically derived European environmental stratification forms a key element in the vulnerability assessment. By linking it to other quantitative environmental stratifications, comparisons can be made using data from different assessments and spatial scales. 相似文献
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Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO2 doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL, GISS, OSU, and UKMO). Global vegetation maps after climate change are compared to the current climate vegetation map using the kappa statistic for judging agreement, as well as by calculating area statistics. All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable, although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole, although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones, vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Specifically, all Boreal vegetation classes are predicted to shrink. The interrelated classes of Tundra, Taiga, and Temperate Forest are predicted to replace much of their poleward (mostly northern) neighbors. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favoring either Forest over Savanna, or vice versa, will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50–100 y needed for CO2 doubling, it is nevertheless not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change. 相似文献
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Taro Takahashi Stewart C. Sutherland Rik Wanninkhof Colm Sweeney Richard A. Feely David W. Chipman Burke Hales Gernot Friederich Francisco Chavez Christopher Sabine Andrew Watson Dorothee C.E. Bakker Ute Schuster Nicolas Metzl Hisayuki Yoshikawa-Inoue Masao Ishii Takashi Midorikawa Yukihiro Nojiri Arne Krtzinger Tobias Steinhoff Mario Hoppema Jon Olafsson Thorarinn S. Arnarson Bronte Tilbrook Truls Johannessen Are Olsen Richard Bellerby C.S. Wong Bruno Delille N.R. Bates Hein J.W. de Baar 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2009,56(11):2075-2076
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Smita Mathur Gregory R. Sivakoff Rik J. Williams Fabrizio Nicastro 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2008,316(1-4):93-98
We describe the main features of the evolutionary code ATON 3.1 and its latest version, particularly deviced to be apt for follow up asteroseismology applications. An older version of the code including rotational evolution is also shortly described. 相似文献
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Krzysztof Pleskot Rik Tjallingii Mirosław Makohonienko Norbert Nowaczyk Witold Szczuciński 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2018,59(4):443-459
Western Poland is located in the central European climatic transition zone, which separates the mild and humid Atlantic climate of Western Europe and the East European continental climate. This region is sensitive to lateral shifts of the European climate zones and is particularly suitable for reconstructing Holocene climate variability. This paper presents detailed analyses of the sedimentary record from Lake Strzeszyńskie since the Late Pleistocene. These include smear-slide and thin-section observations, X-ray fluorescence core scanning, magnetic susceptibility measurements, pollen analyses, and radiocarbon dating. The sediment record reveals three distinct sedimentary units consisting of: (1) an alternation of sand layers and laminated silt and clay deposits accumulated prior to 14,600 cal yr BP; (2) faintly laminated calcareous sediments intercalated with organic matter-rich layers deposited between 14,600 and 10,200 cal yr BP; and (3) massive calcareous mud deposited after 10,200 cal yr BP. The Holocene period is marked by nine phases of organic-rich sedimentation and enhanced Fe deposition, which occurred at ca. 10.1, 9.3, 6.4–6.1, 5.5–5.1, 4.7–4.5, 2.7–2.4, 1.3–1.2, 0.8–0.6, 0.4–0.2 kyr cal BP. These phases are associated with high lake levels and correspond with wet periods recognized in several other records from Poland and central Europe. These phases partly coincide with North Atlantic cold periods, which may suggest that high lake levels are triggered by an ocean-continent linking mechanism. 相似文献
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Popular Gentle Rik Thwaites Digby Race Kim Alexander Tek Maraseni 《Climatic change》2018,147(1-2):267-282
The research was designed to answer how households and local communities in rural Nepal are responding to the impacts of climate change. Using four villages as case study units, a mixed method approach was adopted in a multi-scaled process carried out at community, district and national levels. The research found that adaptation practices being adopted differ according to household well-being and are largely governed by access to education, information and resources within the community. Responses such as livelihood and income diversification, internal migration, share cropping, taking consumption loans, use of alternative energy and use of bio-pesticides were found to mostly vary according to well-being status of the interviewees. Development of adaptation plans, strategies and support mechanisms should take account of the different adaptation practices and needs of households. If such individual situations are not considered, adaptation responses may be ineffective or even be maladaptive and increase vulnerability. The research also found that the autonomous, unplanned and reactive nature of adaptation practices chosen by rural communities can contribute to further inequity and unequal power relations. The knowledge generated from this research contributes to understanding of how climate change contributes to vulnerability, but also how local practices and lack of an effective climate policy or response measures may magnify the effects of many existing drivers of vulnerability in terms of maladaptation and increasing social inequalities. 相似文献