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Iqbal Hossain H. M. Rasel Monzur Alam Imteaz Fatemeh Mekanik 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(7):280
Using the lagged (past) climate indices, including El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as input parameters and long-term spring rainfall as outputs, calibration and validation of the linear multiple regression (MR) models have been performed. Since Australian rainfall varies both temporally and spatially, the analysis on the linear MR models was performed on regional scale. These models show the capability of linear MR technique for long-term predictions of Western Australian spring rainfall. The emphasis was given to assess the statistical correlations between Western Australian spring rainfall and dominating large-scale climate modes. The efficiency of linear modelling technique was evaluated to predict seasonal rainfall forecasting. At the same time, the Pearson correlation (R), mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and Willmott index agreement (d) were used to assess the capability of MR models. The models which fulfilled the limits of statistical significances were used for the prediction of future spring rainfall using independent data set. The results indicate that during calibration periods maximum achievable correlations varied from 0.47 to 0.53 for the selected stations. In regard to predict peaks and troughs of rainfall time series, it was found that correlations between predicted and actual peaks varied from 0.82 to 0.94 and between predicted and actual troughs varied from 0.53 to 0.91. 相似文献
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A robust configuration of pilot points in the parameterisation step of a model is crucial to accurately obtain a satisfactory model performance. However, the recommendations provided by the majority of recent researchers on pilot-point use are considered somewhat impractical. In this study, a practical approach is proposed for using pilot-point properties (i.e. number, distance and distribution method) in the calibration step of a groundwater model. For the first time, the relative distance–area ratio (d/A) and head-zonation-based (HZB) method are introduced, to assign pilot points into the model domain by incorporating a user-friendly zone ratio. This study provides some insights into the trade-off between maximising and restricting the number of pilot points, and offers a relative basis for selecting the pilot-point properties and distribution method in the development of a physically based groundwater model. The grid-based (GB) method is found to perform comparably better than the HZB method in terms of model performance and computational time. When using the GB method, this study recommends a distance–area ratio of 0.05, a distance–x-grid length ratio (d/X grid) of 0.10, and a distance–y-grid length ratio (d/Y grid) of 0.20. 相似文献
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Despite Tokyo’s size and position in the global urban system, studies of its employment distribution have been few. This research identified the locations and ranks of the employment centers in the entire metropolitan region and analyzed the characteristics of the economic sectors in those centers by using fine scale economic census data. Minimum sizes for a center were explored at a range from as small as 250 by 250 m to 3,000 by 3,000 m, and the Local Indicators of Spatial Association technique was utilized for detecting centers in different ranks. The results showed that, from a regional view, Tokyo has a typical monocentric or concentric spatial structure. However, from a fine scale view, the distribution was revealed to be expanding along the railroads to the suburbs, and both the main central business district and the suburbs are polycentric. Through this research, the authors argue that rather than using thresholds of total employment and minimum densities as seen in the previous studies, centers can be effectively detected by comparing with the surrounding areas at different scales. This “scale-view” approach of center identification may provide a new perspective to other metropolitan regions of the world as well. 相似文献
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A study on selection of probability distributions for at-site flood frequency analysis in Australia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ayesha S. Rahman Ataur Rahman Mohammad A. Zaman Khaled Haddad Amimul Ahsan Monzur Imteaz 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(3):1803-1813
The most direct method of design flood estimation is at-site flood frequency analysis, which relies on a relatively long period of recorded streamflow data at a given site. Selection of an appropriate probability distribution and associated parameter estimation procedure is of prime importance in at-site flood frequency analysis. The choice of the probability distribution for a given application is generally made arbitrarily as there is no sound physical basis to justify the selection. In this study, an attempt is made to investigate the suitability of as many as fifteen different probability distributions and three parameter estimation methods based on a large Australian annual maximum flood data set. A total of four goodness-of-fit tests are adopted, i.e., the Akaike information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, Anderson–Darling test, and Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, to identify the best-fit probability distributions. Furthermore, the L-moments ratio diagram is used to make a visual assessment of the alternative distributions. It has been found that a single distribution cannot be specified as the best-fit distribution for all the Australian states as it was recommended in the Australian rainfall and runoff 1987. The log-Pearson 3, generalized extreme value, and generalized Pareto distributions have been identified as the top three best-fit distributions. It is thus recommended that these three distributions should be compared as a minimum in practical applications when making the final selection of the best-fit probability distribution in a given application in Australia. 相似文献
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