Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*     

Dryer  M.  Fry  C.D.  Sun  W.  Deehr  C.  Smith  Z.  Akasofu  S.-I.  Andrews  M.D. 《Solar physics》2001,204(1-2):265-284

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867  相似文献   

The three-dimensional geometry of the heliospheric current sheet     

C.D. Fry  S.-I. Akasofu  J.T. Hoeksema  K. Hakamada 《Planetary and Space Science》1985,33(8):915-923

The three-dimensional geometry of the heliospheric current sheet seen from fixed points in interplanetary space is constructed for idealized (sinusoidal) magnetic neutral lines (equators) and for an observed magnetic equator on the basis of the “kinematic method” developed by Hakamada and Akasofu (1982). The cross-sections of the wavy current sheet at distances 1, 2 and 5 a.u. are also constructed for the idealized magnetic neutral lines.  相似文献   

A simulation study of distortion of the heliospheric sheet caused by solar activity     

C.D. Fry  S.-I. Akasofu 《Planetary and Space Science》1985,33(8):925-931

During major geomagnetic storms, the interplanetary magnetic field angle φ (phi) changes often abruptly, either from 135° to 315° or 315° to 135°, suggesting that the heliospheric current sheet is pushed upward or downward by disturbed solar wind. The distortion of the heliospheric current sheet by three successive solar flares is simulated to show that such a flapping motion can occur.  相似文献   

Quick-look assessments to identify optimal CO2 EOR storage sites   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Vanessa Núñez-López  Mark H. Holtz  Derek J. Wood  William A. Ambrose  Susan D. Hovorka 《Environmental Geology》2008,54(8):1695-1706

A newly developed, multistage quick-look methodology allows for the efficient screening of an unmanageably large number of reservoirs to generate a workable set of sites that closely match the requirements for optimal CO₂ enhanced oil recovery (EOR) storage. The objective of the study is to quickly identify miscible CO₂ EOR candidates in areas that contain thousands of reservoirs and to estimate additional oil recovery and sequestration capacities of selected top options through dimensionless modeling and reservoir characterization. Quick-look assessments indicate that the CO₂ EOR resource potential along the US Gulf Coast is 4.7 billion barrels, and CO₂ sequestration capacity is 2.6 billion metric tons. In the first stage, oil reservoirs are screened and ranked in terms of technical and practical feasibility for miscible CO₂ EOR. The second stage provides quick estimates of CO₂ EOR potential and sequestration capacities. In the third stage, a dimensionless group model is applied to a selected set of sites to improve the estimates of oil recovery and storage potential using appropriate inputs for rock and fluid properties, disregarding reservoir architecture and sweep design. The fourth stage validates and refines the results by simulating flow in a model that describes the internal architecture and fluid distribution in the reservoir. The stated approach both saves time and allows more resources to be applied to the best candidate sites.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of a physically based method for terrain interpolation to initial conditions and its conditioning on stream location     

Salvatore Grimaldi  Vanessa Teles  Rafael L. Bras 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2004,29(5):587-597

  相似文献   

Stability analysis of tunnels driven in jointed rocks by means of a homogenized limit analysis approach     

Samir Maghous  José E. B. Winiawer  Vanessa F. Pasa Dutra 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2014,38(18):2009-2032

Conceived as a potential alternative to the classical design methods employed for analyzing the stability of underground structures driven in jointed rocks, the homogenization approach stems from the heuristic idea that, from a macroscopic point of view, a rock mass cut by a network of joints may be perceived as a homogenized continuum. The strength properties of the latter can be theoretically obtained from the failure conditions of its individual constituents: rock matrix and joint interfaces. At the material level, the limit analysis reasoning is used in the context of homogenization to formulate the homogenized strength criterion of a jointed rock mass in the particular situation of a single set of parallel joints. As it could be expected, the obtained closed‐form expressions show the strength anisotropy induced by joint preferential orientation. The support functions (π functions) associated with the homogenized strength criterion are also determined in both plane strain and three‐dimensional cases. This criterion is then applied to the investigation of stability analysis of a tunnel excavated in a jointed rock mass. Upper bounds estimated of the stability factor are derived from the implementation of the kinematic approach directly on the homogenized underground structure. Finally, the approach is applied to analyze and discuss the collapse of the Pinheiros subway station (São Paulo, Brazil). Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

User expectations for multibeam echo sounders backscatter strength data-looking back into the future     

Vanessa Lucieer  Marc Roche  Koen Degrendele  Mashkoor Malik  Margaret Dolan  Geoffroy Lamarche 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2018,39(1-2):23-40

With the ability of multibeam echo sounders (MBES) to measure backscatter strength (BS) as a function of true angle of insonification across the seafloor, came a new recognition of the potential of backscatter measurements to remotely characterize the properties of the seafloor. Advances in transducer design, digital electronics, signal processing capabilities, navigation, and graphic display devices, have improved the resolution and particularly the dynamic range available to sonar and processing software manufacturers. Alongside these improvements the expectations of what the data can deliver has also grown. In this paper, we identify these user-expectations and explore how MBES backscatter is utilized by different communities involved in marine seabed research at present, and the aspirations that these communities have for the data in the future. The results presented here are based on a user survey conducted by the GeoHab (Marine Geological and Biological Habitat Mapping) association. This paper summarises the different processing procedures employed to extract useful information from MBES backscatter data and the various intentions for which the user community collect the data. We show how a range of backscatter output products are generated from the different processing procedures, and how these results are taken up by different scientific disciplines, and also identify common constraints in handling MBES BS data. Finally, we outline our expectations for the future of this unique and important data source for seafloor mapping and characterisation.  相似文献   

Evaluation of distributed BMPs in an urban watershed—High resolution modeling for stormwater management          下载免费PDF全文

Timothy J. Fry  Reed M. Maxwell 《水文研究》2017,31(15):2700-2712

The urban environment modifies the hydrologic cycle resulting in increased runoff rates, volumes, and peak flows. Green infrastructure, which uses best management practices (BMPs), is a natural system approach used to mitigate the impacts of urbanization onto stormwater runoff. Patterns of stormwater runoff from urban environments are complex, and it is unclear how efficiently green infrastructure will improve the urban water cycle. These challenges arise from issues of scale, the merits of BMPs depend on changes to small‐scale hydrologic processes aggregated up from the neighborhood to the urban watershed. Here, we use a hyper‐resolution (1 m), physically based hydrologic model of the urban hydrologic cycle with explicit inclusion of the built environment. This model represents the changes to hydrology at the BMP scale (~1 m) and represents each individual BMP explicitly to represent response over the urban watershed. Our study varies both the percentage of BMP emplacement and their spatial location for storm events of increasing intensity in an urban watershed. We develop a metric of effectiveness that indicates a nonlinear relationship that is seen between percent BMP emplacement and storm intensity. Results indicate that BMP effectiveness varies with spatial location and that type and emplacement within the urban watershed may be more important than overall percent.  相似文献   

Seasonal Fisheries Changes in Low-Rainfall Mangrove Ecosystems of Iran     

Maryam Shahraki  Brian Fry 《Estuaries and Coasts》2016,39(2):529-541

To determine the role of mangroves for fisheries in the arid region of the Persian Gulf, we investigated fish community structure and trophic diversity in intertidal creeks with and without mangroves. Fish community abundances and biomass were compared across habitats and seasons. To identify variations in overall community trophic niches among habitats and seasons, we measured niches with size-corrected standard ellipse areas (SEA_c) calculated from C and N stable isotope values. Although there was a slightly greater species richness occurred in mangrove creeks, we found a general similarity in the diversity patterns in creeks with and without mangroves. Also, there were no consistent differences in fish abundance or biomass for mangrove vs. non-mangrove fish collections. Community trophic diversity measured as SEA_c also showed no significant difference between mangrove and non-mangrove sites. Instead, strong seasonal patterns were observed in the fish assemblages. Winter samples had consistently higher fish abundance and biomass than summer samples. Winter SEA_c values were significantly higher, indicating that the fish community had a larger isotopic niche in winter than summer. Overall, we found that seasonality was much stronger than habitat in determining fish community structure and trophic diversity in the mangrove and non-mangrove ecosystems of Qeshm Island, Iran.  相似文献   

The Callander (Auchenlaich) moraine: A new site report for the Western Highland Boundary block of the Quaternary of Scotland Geological Conservation Review (GCR)     

John Lowe  Vanessa Brazier 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2021,132(1):24-33

  相似文献