华南区域高分辨率数值模式前汛期预报初步评估     

林晓霞  冯业荣  陈子通  简云韬 《热带气象学报》2021,37(4):656-668

基于华南地区自动站逐小时观测资料, 采用传统站点评分、邻域法等评估华南区域高分辨率数值模式(包括GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式和GRAPES_GZ 3 km模式)对降水、地面温度和风场等要素的预报能力。结果表明: GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式的降水预报技巧优于GRAPES_GZ 3 km模式, 模式预报以正偏差为主。对于不同起报时间的预报, 00时(世界时, 下同)起报的预报效果优于12时。GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式的TS评分是GRAPES_GZ 3 km模式的两倍以上, 对不同降水阈值的评分均较高。分数技巧评分(FSS)显示GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式6 h累计降水预报在0.1 mm、1 mm及5 mm以上的降水均可达到最低预报技巧尺度, 对所检验降水对象的空间位置把握能力更好。2 m气温和10 m风速检验结果表明两个模式均能较好把握广东省温度的分布特征, GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式对2 m气温预报结果优于GRAPES_GZ 3 km模式, 预报绝对误差更小; 两个模式对风速的预报整体偏强, 预报偏差在1~4 m/s之间, 但相比之下GRAPES_GZ 3 km模式在风场预报上表现更好。GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式的2 m气温和10 m风速预报偏差随降水过程存在明显波动, 强降水过后温度预报整体偏低, 风速预报偏强, 在模式产品订正、使用等需要考虑模式对主要天气系统的预报情况。总的来说, GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式的预报产品具有较好的参考价值。   相似文献   

A CRPS-Based Spatial Technique for the Verification of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts     

赵滨  张博  李子良 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(1):24-33

Traditional precipitation skill scores are affected by the well-known“double penalty”problem caused by the slight spatial or temporal mismatches between forecasts and observations. The fuzzy (neighborhood) method has been proposed for deterministic simulations and shown some ability to solve this problem. The increasing resolution of ensemble forecasts of precipitation means that they now have similar problems as deterministic forecasts. We developed an ensemble precipitation verification skill score, i.e., the Spatial Continuous Ranked Probability Score (SCRPS), and used it to extend spatial verification from deterministic into ensemble forecasts. The SCRPS is a spatial technique based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the fuzzy method. A fast binomial random variation generator was used to obtain random indexes based on the climatological mean observed frequency, which were then used in the reference score to calculate the skill score of the SCRPS. The verification results obtained using daily forecast products from the ECMWF ensemble forecasts and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the OPERA datasets during June-August 2018 shows that the spatial score is not affected by the number of ensemble forecast members and that a consistent assessment can be obtained. The score can reflect the performance of ensemble forecasts in modeling precipitation and thus can be widely used.  相似文献   

Origin of calcium in aerosols over the western North Pacific     

T. Suzuki  S. Tsunogai 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1988,6(4):363-374

Weekly aerosol samples were collected from March 1981 to June 1983 at the six stations in the western North Pacific region and analyzed for Ca and Na. By coupling data with those previously reported for Al (Tsunogai et al., 1985), the following results and conclusion have been obtained. There was a positive correlation between the atmospheric concentration of Al and the concentration of nonsea salt Ca (nssCa). The nssCa/Al ratios from the six stations, however, considerably varied (from 0.84±0.36 to 3.00±1.91), and the ratios were usally larger than those of the crustal average or of usual soil in Japan. The Ca/Al ratios of Asian desert soil and loess vary from 0.52 to 1.29, which are similar to the nssCa/Al ratios of aerosols in the surface air over the western North Pacific region except at Onna, Okinawa. The exception may be due to a local effect of coral. These results suggest that a large part of nonsea salt Ca in the surface air over the western North Pacific is derived from arid regions in Asia and that the nssCa/Al ratio in aerosol varies with that of the source material.  相似文献   

用超速CT机检测99例无症状香港中国人降低钙指数     

吴敬文  戴有鼎 《CT理论与应用研究》1994,3(4):34-34

回顾分析Ｍａｔｉｌｄａ医院超速ＣＴ室筛选首批病人中９９例中国人资料，很明显从通常采用１３０－１００Ｈｏｕｎｓｆｉｅｌｄ单位作为检出冠状血管钙化的基数应用至中国人身上其阈值数目需要降低，同时，我们也发现如果病人年龄按每１０年范围分组（２１－３０，３０－４０，４１－５０，５１－６０）而计算其超速ＣＴ的钙化指数会较随机男女一起按平均计算更易区分其差异．进一步分析显示，男性中年时候超速ＣＴ指数已达最高值，而女性则晚１０年方达最高值，因此，为了更易探测冠脉循环内钙化倾向应作出超速ＣＴ检出钙化的指数数目．这些实践经验对动脉粥样硬化过程的预测或预防有实际意义．  相似文献   

A preliminary scanning electron microscope study of honeycomb weathering of sandstone in a coastal environment     

J. P. McGreevy 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1985,10(5):509-518

Honeycomb weathering has been observed in a Carboniferous sandstone at a coastal location near Ballycastle on the north coast of Northern Ireland. Specimens of this sandstone have been analysed by X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, and energy dispersive spectrometry. Results reveal that calcium sulphate (gypsum) is the only salt present and is found only at and immediately below the rock surface. SEM observations suggest that crystallization of salts in pores could easily dislodge quartz grains to promote granular disintegration, whilst etching of quartz grain surfaces attests to chemical weathering activity within the rock However, the reason for the development of the honeycomb pattern is not known.  相似文献   

Oxygen deficient perovskites in the system CaSiO3–CaAlO2.5 and implications for the Earth’s interior     

U. W. Bläß  F. Langenhorst  D. J. Frost  F. Seifert 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2007,34(6):363-376

Oxygen deficient perovskites of the system CaSiO₃–CaAlO_2.5 have been synthesised at high-pressure and -temperature conditions relevant to the Earth’s transition zone in order to investigate their stabilities in the Earth’s mantle and determine structural properties associated with vacancy incorporation. Two polysomes of thermodynamically stable defect perovskites with Ca(Al_0.4Si_0.6)O_2.8 and Ca(Al_0.5Si_0.5)O_2.75 stoichiometry have been identified. The ordering of oxygen defects into pseudo-cubic (111) layers results in well-ordered ten- or eightfold superstructures, respectively. At all other compositions examined, a metastable formation of perovskites has been observed instead, which are assumed to grow initially disordered. These are now characterised by tiny domains, formed due to subsequent ordering of vacancies along various pseudo-cubic {111} layers. Both ordered defect perovskites show a large P–T stability field ranging from about 9–18 GPa and 4–12 GPa, respectively. Microstructural TEM analyses revealed the presence of growth and ferroelastic twins, which indicate a phase transition from rhombohedral to monoclinic symmetry during quenching. Electron energy loss spectroscopy of Si and Al K edges point at the presence of tetrahedral, octahedral and maybe some pentacoordinated silicon, whereas aluminium is predominantly octahedrally coordinated with minor fractions in lower coordination. Observed properties are interpreted in terms of a new structural model, explaining the observed phase transition and formation of different twin laws as well as giving reasons for the development of such large superstructures. With respect to phase relations of the transition zone, the potential occurrence of such defect perovskites in the Earth’s interior is discussed.  相似文献   

Soil water residence times and solute uptake on a dolomite bedrock—preliminary results     

Stephen T. Trudgill  Ian M. S. Laidlaw  Peter L. Smart 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1980,5(1):91-100

Calcium and magnesium levels have been monitored in slope foot drainage waters on a dolomite bedrock. Both calcium and magnesium rich pulses occur. Short term dissolution experiments demonstrate high calcium levels in solution while other authors have suggested that long residence time groundwater has relatively high levels of magnesium due to calcite precipitation. Patterns of field fluctuations in Ca: Mg ratios can thus be tentatively interpreted in terms of short residence time water of high calcium content mixing with long residence time water of high magnesium content. Fluorometric dye tracing has been used to indicate the orders of magnitude of soil water residence times, suggesting that quickflow components are resident in the system for a few hours to a few days. Further work is in progress.  相似文献   

Influence of calcium leaching on the mechanical behavior of a rock–mortar interface: A DEM analysis     

C. Lambert  O. Buzzi  A. Giacomini 《Computers and Geotechnics》2010

Being a potential preferential way for water to flow, interfaces between host rock and engineered barriers are critical in the design of deep radioactive waste repositories. In case of cementitious materials, presence of water may lead to long term degradation by leaching. Such a phenomenon could impede the integrity of the confinement by its effect on the hydro-mechanical properties of the interface. Recent experimental results from Buzzi et al. [8] have evidenced some effects of leaching on the hydro-mechanical behavior of rock–concrete interfaces for one leaching time. This paper intends to investigate the influence of leaching on the mechanical behavior of rock–mortar interfaces by means of numerical simulations. These latter will be run for several leaching times to produce a better understanding of the phenomenon. For this purpose, a DEM approach has been developed to simulate the increase of the macro-porosity resulting from the leaching process. The implementation of the approach is first discussed. Then direct shear tests under constant normal stress are performed on a simple interface geometry and on a natural interface geometry. The results after Buzzi et al. [8] are corroborated by this research.  相似文献   

Last glacial emplacement of methane-derived authigenic carbonates in the Sea of Japan constrained by diatom assemblage,carbon-14, and carbonate content     

《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2014

We studied diatom assemblages and CaCO₃ contents of methane-derived authigenic carbonates from the eastern margin of the Sea of Japan and assessed the formation time of these samples. Radioactive ¹⁴C date was determined in selected samples to obtain the maximum age of the time. The results of our study suggest mass formation of carbonate nodules in a glacial period within ∼40 ky, consistent with a published U/Th dating result of carbonate nodules in the study area. Diatom assemblages and contents in the carbonate nodules (abundance of ∼10⁶/g, dominance of neritic-littoral species, warm/cold water species ratio lower than ∼25) differ from the near-seafloor sediments in the study area, which have characteristics of Holocene sediments in the Sea of Japan, and suggest cementation of glacial sediments. Laminated sediments in some nodule samples are glacial sediments because laminations are records of a low sea level period in the semi-enclosed ocean. Similarity of diatom assemblages and contents in all carbonate samples is another evidence of glacial sediments in nodules. Glacial sediments with oceanic cold water species as low as Holocene sediments restricts the sediment age to before 20 cal. ky BP. Carbonate contents higher than 78 wt% suggest the cementation of poorly compacted sediments near the seafloor, and the date of carbonate cementation is, therefore, close to that of the cemented sediments. Most carbonate nodule samples in this study were formed in a glacial period and detection of ¹⁴C restricts this period to within ∼40 ky.  相似文献   

Experiment and Pitzer Model Prediction for the Solid + Liquid Equilibria of the Ternary System LiCl–CaCl2–H2O     

MENG Lingzong  LI Dan  DENG Tianlong  GUO Yafei 《《地质学报》英文版》2014,88(Z1):356-358

正1 Introduction Lithium resources are widely distributed in the oilfield brine from the Nanyishan district in the Qaidam Basin(Fan et al.,2007).The investigation of the thermodynamics and phase diagram of the brine system is valuable in providing the theoretic foundation and scientific guidance in the comprehensive exploitation of the mixture salts effectively.Comprehensive  相似文献