大同—阳高Ms6.1地震前兆综合加权信息熵的变化     

张昭栋  刘章增  赵会蓬 《大地测量与地球动力学》2002,22(1):51-55

利用“地震预报计算机专家系统”的思想对大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前每一前兆异常事件进行综合评估 ,以每一异常的最可能发震时间来计算发震概率 ,利用地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究了系统熵值与地震的关系。对华北地区的地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究表明 ,在大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前 ,信息熵出现了明显的减熵有序变化  相似文献   

模糊划分矩阵在岩土参数概率分布中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘明  熊彩霞  马金荣 《地球科学与环境学报》2002,24(4):38-41

讨论如何在小样本条件下用已有的过程经验与试验资料确定岩土参数概率分布,用模糊划分矩阵与BAYES方法相结合,给出由小样本试验数据确定岩土参数的概率分布。  相似文献   

Progress in Earthquake Science and Technology in China: Review and Prospects (Ⅰ)     

Chen Zhangli 《中国地震研究》2001,15(4):329-345

In the article the author looks back the hard development course and great progress in earth quake science and technology in China during the last near a half of century and expounds the following 3 aspects: (1) The strong desire of the whole society to mitigate seismic disasters and reduce the effect of earthquakes on social-economic live is a great driving force to push forward the development of earthquake science and technology in China; (2) To better ensure people‘ s life and property, sustainable economic development, and social stability is an essential purpose to drive the development of earthquake science and technology in China; and (3) To insist on the dialectical connection of setup of technical system for seismic monitoring with the scientific research of earthquakes and to better handle the relation between crucial task, current scientif ic level, and the feasibility are the important principles to advance the earthquake science and technology in China. Some success and many setbacks in earthquake disaster mitigation consistently enrich our knowledge regarding the complexity of the conditions for earthquake occurrence and the process of earthquake preparation, promote the reconstruction and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring, and deepen the scientific research of earthquakes. During the last 5 years, the improvement and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring have clearly provided the technical support to study and practice of earthquake prediction and pre caution, give prominence to key problems and broaden the field of scientific research of earth quakes. These have enabled us to get some new recognition of the conditions for earthquake oc currence and process of earthquake preparation, characteristics of seismic disaster, and mecha nism for earthquake generation in China‘s continent. The progress we have made not only en courages us to enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation, but also provides a basis for accelerating further development of earthquake science and technology in China in the new century, especially in the 10th five-year plan. Based on the history reviewed, the author sets forth a general requirement for develop ment of earthquake science and technology in China and brings out 10 aspects to be stressed and strengthened at present and in the future. These are: upgrade and setup of the network of digitized seismic observation; upgrade and setup of the network for observation of seismic pre cursors; setup of the network for observation of strong motion; setup of the laboratories for ex periment on seismic regime; establishment of technical system for seismic information, emer gency command and urgent rescue; research on short-term and imminent earthquake predic tion; research on intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction; research on attenuation of seismic ground motion, mechanism for seismic disaster, and control on seismic disaster; ba sic research fields related to seismology and geoscience. We expect that these efforts will signifi cantly elevate the level of earthquake science and technology in China to the advanced interna tional level, improve theories, techniques, and methods for earthquake precaution and predic tion, and enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation.  相似文献   

疏散星团NGC6530天区的恒星自行和成员概率     

温文  赵君亮陈力 《中国科学院上海天文台年刊》2005,(1):79-94

利用上海天文台的照相底片资料,确定了疏散星团NGC6530天区364颗恒星的自行和成员概率,并对有关自行测定的方法、结果和精度等问题作了较为详细的介绍和讨论。使用的底片历元差为87年,全部恒星自行中误差的均方根值为1．09mas/a。  相似文献   

Age estimates of coastal terraces in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and their tectonic implications     

Kusala Rajendran  C.P. Rajendran  Anil Earnest  G.V. Ravi Prasad  K. Dutta  D.K. Ray  R. Anu 《Tectonophysics》2008,455(1-4):53-60

The great Indian Ocean earthquake of December 26, 2004 caused significant vertical changes in its rupture zone. About 800 km of the rupture is along the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which forms the outer arc ridge of the subduction zone. Coseismic deformation along the exposed land could be observed as uplift/subsidence. Here we analyze the morphological features along the coast of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, in an effort to reconstruct the past tectonics, taking cues from the coseismic effects. We obtained radiocarbon dates from coastal terraces of the island belt and used them to compute uplift rates, which vary from 1.33 mm yr^− 1 in the Little Andaman to 2.80 mm yr^− 1 in South Andaman and 2.45 mm yr^− 1 in the North Andaman. Our radiocarbon dates converge on  600 yr and  1000 yr old coastal uplifts, which we attribute to the level changes due to two major previous subduction earthquakes in the region.  相似文献   

Nonlinear dynamic finite element simulation of Alibey earth dam     

Bilge Siyahi  Haydar Arslan 《Environmental Geology》2008,55(1):77-85

In this study, dynamic behavior and earthquake resistance of Alibey earth dam was investigated. The dam was modeled with four node plane-strain finite elements (FE) and displacement-pore pressure coupled FE analyses were performed. Nonlinear material models such as pressure dependent and independent multi yield materials were implemented during the analyses. Transient dynamic FE analyses were performed with Newmark method. The Newton-Raphson solution scheme was adopted to solve the equations. Liquefaction and/or cyclic mobility effects were considered during the analysis. For the FE analyses, OpenSees (Open System for Earthquake Engineering Simulation) framework was adopted.  相似文献   

概率图解法软件研制及其在东升庙矿床研究中的应用     

王琳  彭润民  韩雪峰  林美春 《地质与勘探》2008,44(1):89-93

文章根据概率图解法原理,利用VB可视化编程技术,完成了概率图筛分软件的研制.并通过该软件对东升庙矿床矿石品位混合总体进行筛分处理,探究其成矿期次信息.已有研究结果表明:一次成矿作用形成的矿床,其矿石品位的累积概率图是一条直线.而东升庙矿床的8条代表性勘探线中4种主要成矿元素TS、An、Pb、Cu品位的累积概率图均为曲线且出现明显拐点,经多次作图检验证实有效拐点数为1,由此得到新的成矿期次信息,揭示该矿床经历了两期成矿作用,即中元古代同沉积-海底喷气矿化期和后生改造矿化期,这对于研究其成矿物质来源和成矿机理具有重要的意义.  相似文献   

Integration and magnitude homogenization of the Egyptian earthquake catalogue   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

H. M. Hussein  K. M. Abou Elenean  I. A. Marzouk  A. Peresan  I. M. Korrat  E. Abu El-Nader  G. F. Panza  M. N. El-Gabry 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(3):525-546

The aim of the present work is to compile and update a catalogue of the instrumentally recorded earthquakes in Egypt, with uniform and homogeneous source parameters as required for the analysis of seismicity and seismic hazard assessment. This in turn requires a detailed analysis and comparison of the properties of different available sources, including the distribution of events with time, the magnitude completeness, and the scaling relations between different kinds of magnitude reported by different agencies. The observational data cover the time interval 1900–2004 and an area between 22°–33.5° N and 25°–36° E. The linear regressions between various magnitude types have been evaluated for different magnitude ranges. Using the best linear relationship determined for each available pair of magnitudes, as well as those identified between the magnitudes and the seismic moment, we convert the different magnitude types into moment magnitudes M _W, through a multi-step conversion process. Analysis of the catalogue completeness, based on the M _W thus estimated, allows us to identify two different time intervals with homogeneous properties. The first one (1900–1984) appears to be complete for M _W ≥ 4.5, while the second one (1985–2004) can be considered complete for magnitudes M _W ≥ 3.  相似文献   

P-III分布参数的概率权重矩法S函数计算   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

宋松柏 《水文》2008,28(5)

概率权重矩法是一种估计统计分布参数的方法.本文根据不完全Γ函数在无限区间积分,推导了P-Ⅲ分布参数的S函数的计算公式.通过现有计算公式比较,其计算结果具有较高的计算精度,避免了的大量的数值积分计算.文中公式只要借助于计算编程进行求解,给定超几何函数项一定的截断误差,其运算具有较高的运行速度.文中计算公式是一种P-Ⅲ分布参数S函数的计算途径.  相似文献   

海浪的条件特征周期     

徐德伦  刘学海  张军 《海洋学报》2001,23(3):1-7

在海浪波面高度为正态分布的假定下,导出一种以给定波高为条件的条件周期概率密度函数.与风浪槽中测量数据比较,结果表明,在窄谱情况下此概率密度函数与实验室风浪的实际符合良好.根据此密度函数定义了3种条件特征周期,并导出它们与平均周期的关系式.根据这些关系对有关海洋工程上的一些问题作了解释和讨论.  相似文献