Soil erosion susceptibility assessment and validation using a geostatistical multivariate approach: a test in Southern Sicily   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Christian Conoscenti  Cipriano Di Maggio  Edoardo Rotigliano 《Natural Hazards》2008,46(3):287-305

A certain number of studies have been carried out in recent years that aim at developing and applying a model capable of assessing water erosion of soil. Some of these have tried to quantitatively evaluate the volumes of soil loss, while others have focused their efforts on the recognition of the areas most prone to water erosion processes. This article presents the results of a research whose objective was that of evaluating water erosion susceptibility in a Sicilian watershed: the Naro river basin. A geomorphological study was carried out to recognize the water erosion landforms and define a set of parameters expressing both the intensity of hydraulic forces and the resistance of rocks/soils. The landforms were mapped and classified according to the dominant process in landsurfaces affected by diffuse or linear water erosion. A GIS layer was obtained by combining six determining factors (bedrock lithology, land use, soil texture, plan curvature, stream power index and slope-length factor) in unique conditions units. A geostatistical multivariate approach was applied by analysing the relationships between the spatial distributions of the erosion landforms and the unique condition units. Particularly, the density of eroded area for each combination of determining factors has been calculated: such function corresponds, in fact, to the conditional probability of erosion landforms to develop, under the same geoenvironmental conditions. In light of the obtained results, a general geomorphologic model for water erosion in the Naro river basin can be depicted: cultivated areas in clayey slopes, having fine-medium soil texture, are the most prone to be eroded; linear or diffuse water erosion processes dominate where the topography is favourable to a convergent or divergent runoff, respectively. For each of the two erosion process types, a susceptibility map was produced and submitted to a validation procedure based on a spatial random partition strategy. Both the success of the validation procedure of the susceptibility models and the geomorphological coherence of the relationships between factors and process that such models suggest, confirm the reliability of the method and the goodness of the predictions.  相似文献   

Methodology for construction, calibration and validation of a national hydrological model for Denmark   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  

Hans Jrgen Henriksen  Lars Troldborg  Per Nyegaard  Torben Obel Sonnenborg  Jens Christian Refsgaard  Bjarne Madsen 《Journal of Hydrology》2003,280(1-4):52-71

An integrated groundwater/surface water hydrological model with a 1 km² grid has been constructed for Denmark covering 43,000 km². The model is composed of a relatively simple root zone component for estimating the net precipitation, a comprehensive three-dimensional groundwater component for estimating recharge to and hydraulic heads in different geological layers, and a river component for streamflow routing and calculating stream–aquifer interaction. The model was constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE code and by utilising comprehensive national databases on geology, soil, topography, river systems, climate and hydrology. The present paper describes the modelling process for the 7330 km² island of Sjælland with emphasis on the problems experienced in combining the classical paradigms of groundwater modelling, such as inverse modelling of steady-state conditions, and catchment modelling, focussing on dynamic conditions and discharge simulation. Three model versions with different assumptions on input data and parameter values were required until the performance of the final, according to pre-defined accuracy criteria, model was evaluated as being satisfactory. The paper highlights the methodological issues related to establishment of performance criteria, parameterisation and assessment of parameter values from field data, calibration and validation test schemes. Most of the parameter values were assessed directly from field data, while about 10 ‘free’ parameters were subject to calibration using a combination of inverse steady-state groundwater modelling and manual trial-and-error dynamic groundwater/surface water modelling. Emphasising the importance of tests against independent data, the validation schemes included combinations of split-sample tests (another period) and proxy-basin tests (another area).  相似文献   

On the circulation in the East Frisian Wadden Sea: numerical modeling and data analysis     

Emil V. Stanev  Jörg-Olaf Wolff  Hans Burchard  Karsten Bolding  Götz Flöser 《Ocean Dynamics》2003,53(1):27-51

 In this paper we use a combination of numerical modeling and data analysis to gain a better understanding of the major characteristics of the circulation in the East Frisian Wadden Sea. In particular, we concentrate on the asymmetry of the tidal wave and its modulation in the coastal area, which results in a complex pattern of responses to the sea-level forcing from the North Sea. The numerical simulations are based on the 3-D primitive equation General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM) with a horizontal resolution of 200 m and terrain-following vertical coordinates. The model is forced at its open boundaries with sea-level data from an operational model for the German Bight (German Hydrographic Office). The validation data for our model simulations include time series of tidal gauge data and surface currents measured at a pile in the back-barrier basin of the Island Langeoog, as well as several ADCP transects in the Accumer Ee tidal inlet. Circulation and turbulence characteristics are investigated for typical situations driven by spring and neap tides, and the analysis is focused on dominating temporal and spatial patterns. By investigating the response of five back-barrier basins with rather different morphologies to external forcing, an attempt is made to elucidate the dominating physical balances controlling the circulation in the individual sub-basins. It is demonstrated that the friction at the seabed tends to slow down the tidal signal in the shallow water. This leads to the establishment of flood dominance in the shallow sea north of the barrier islands. South of the islands, where the water volume of the channels at low tide is smaller than the tidal prism, the asymmetry of the tidal signal is shifted towards ebb dominance, a feature which is particularly pronounced at spring tide. At the northern open boundary, the tidal wave propagating from west to east generates a sea-level difference of ∼1 m along the boundary, and thereby triggers vigorous alongshore currents. The frictional control in the model is located in the inlets, as well as along the northern boundary. The correlation between velocity and turbulent kinetic energy tends to the establishment of a net southward transport, giving theoretical support to the observed accumulation of sediments on the intertidal flats. Weak turbulence along the northern shores of the barrier islands and the small magnitude of the residual currents there promote accumulation of suspended matter in these areas, although wave action will generally counteract this effect. Received: 29 May 2002 / Accepted: 26 September 2002 Responsible Editor: Jean-Marie Beckers Acknowledgements We are indebted to S. Dick for providing the data from the operational model of BSH and to B. Flemming for the useful discussions. The topography data and Fig. 1 have been prepared in cooperation with F. Meyer. Figure 2 has been prepared by G. Brink-Spalink. We also thank for the comments from an anonymous reviewer which helped to improve our paper.  相似文献   

GOALS模式对热带太平洋ENSO年际变化特征的模拟评估     

吴统文  吴国雄  宇如聪 《气象学报》2004,62(2):154-166

文中重点分析了中国科学院大气物理研究所LASG最新发展的全球大气环流谱模式(R42L9)与一全球海洋环流模式(T63L30)耦合形成的全球海洋-大气-陆面气候系统模式(GOALS/LASG)新版本已积分30 a的模拟结果,通过与多种观测资料的对比分析,讨论了赤道太平洋海表温度(SST)的年际变化及其纬向传播、赤道东太平洋SST异常与其他洋面SST变化之间的遥相关关系、赤道太平洋浅表层海温的年际变化特征等研究内容.结果表明,COALS模式模拟出了赤道太平洋SST异常出现不规则的年际变化特点;赤道东太平洋SST异常的向西传播过程;赤道太平洋混合层海温变化由西向东、由深层向浅层的传播过程;同时也模拟出了赤道东太平洋SST变化与赤道西太平洋以及与西南太平洋海温之间的反相关关系,与南印度洋和副热带大西洋SST之间的正遥相关关系等实际观测现象.但COALS模式也存在明显的不足,如对赤道东、中太平洋SST异常的年际变化幅度明显偏小,没能模拟出赤道东太平洋的SST变化比赤道中太平洋强的特点;赤道太平洋SST从东向西的传播速度明显比实际观测慢得多,但混合层海温极值变化由西向东的传播速度明显比实际情况快得多;没能模拟出赤道东太平洋SST变化同西北太平洋SST的负相关和北印度洋海温变化的正相关现象,因此也影响了对南亚、东南亚降水年际变化的模拟能力.  相似文献   

Recent advances in (soil moisture) triple collocation analysis     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2016

To date, triple collocation (TC) analysis is one of the most important methods for the global-scale evaluation of remotely sensed soil moisture data sets. In this study we review existing implementations of soil moisture TC analysis as well as investigations of the assumptions underlying the method. Different notations that are used to formulate the TC problem are shown to be mathematically identical. While many studies have investigated issues related to possible violations of the underlying assumptions, only few TC modifications have been proposed to mitigate the impact of these violations. Moreover, assumptions, which are often understood as a limitation that is unique to TC analysis are shown to be common also to other conventional performance metrics. Noteworthy advances in TC analysis have been made in the way error estimates are being presented by moving from the investigation of absolute error variance estimates to the investigation of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) metrics. Here we review existing error presentations and propose the combined investigation of the SNR (expressed in logarithmic units), the unscaled error variances, and the soil moisture sensitivities of the data sets as an optimal strategy for the evaluation of remotely-sensed soil moisture data sets.  相似文献   

Assessing spatial and attribute errors in large national datasets for population distribution models: a case study of Philadelphia county schools     

Lauren Patterson  Marie Urban  Aaron Myers  Budhendra Bhaduri  Eddie Bright  Phillip Coleman 《GeoJournal》2007,69(1-2):93-102

Geospatial technologies and digital data have developed and disseminated rapidly in conjunction with increasing computing efficiency and Internet availability. The ability to store and transmit large datasets has encouraged the development of national infrastructure datasets in geospatial formats. National datasets are used by numerous agencies for analysis and modeling purposes because these datasets are standardized and considered to be of acceptable accuracy for national scale applications. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory a population model has been developed that incorporates national schools data as one of the model inputs. This paper evaluates spatial and attribute inaccuracies present within two national school datasets, Tele Atlas North America and National Center of Education Statistics (NCES). Schools are an important component of the population model, because they are spatially dense clusters of vulnerable populations. It is therefore essential to validate the quality of school input data. Schools were also chosen since a validated schools dataset was produced in geospatial format for Philadelphia County; thereby enabling a comparison between a local dataset and the national datasets. Analyses found the national datasets are not standardized and incomplete, containing 76 to 90 percent of existing schools. The temporal accuracy of updating annual enrollment values resulted in 89 percent inaccuracy for 2003. Spatial rectification was required for 87 percent of NCES points, of which 58 percent of the errors were attributed to the geocoding process. Lastly, it was found that by combining the two national datasets, the resultant dataset provided a more useful and accurate solution.  相似文献   

On the evaluation of sediment transport models in tidal environments     

Christian Winter 《Sedimentary Geology》2007,202(3):562-571

The application of numerical models for the simulation of coastal hydro-and sediment dynamics requires model verification, calibration and validation with field data. Yet, no commonly accepted rules for the evaluation of sediment transport models exist. This paper discusses the significance of statistical parameters and their limitations considering common time lags in tidal environments. It is shown that the occasionally used discrepancy ratio lacks quantitative and qualitative information on model performance, as the time context information on time series characteristics is lost. As an initial measure of association, the simple linear correlation coefficient r² is proposed. To account for time lag errors in suspended transport models, a separate cross-correlation analysis for the flood and ebb tidal phase is proposed. For a comparison with other model applications, a concluding rating of model performance can be expressed by a dimensionless error definition which takes into account the quality of field data.  相似文献   

Alternative Validation of a LC-MS/MS-Multi-Method for Pesticides in Drinking Water     

Alexander Müller  Dirk Flottmann  Wolfgang Schulz  Wolfram Seitz  Walter H. Weber 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2007,35(4):329-338

The development of instrumental analytics such as the LC-MS/MS has made it possible to quickly determine many component concentrations in a single chromatogram. However, the validation of such multi-methods needs new strategies for robustness and optimization. Statistical execution of analytical tests is one tool that can be utilized to meet this requirement. A Central Composite Design (CCD) was utilized for the validation of an LC-MS/MS multi-method for 84 analytes. The experimental design includes six design variables and two non-design variables (response variables). Concentration, ionization temperature, dwell time, gradient, flow (of eluent), and spraying/curtain gas (continuous design variables) were varied on five different levels; the whole design encompassed 91 runs. To investigate the robustness of a LC-MS/MS method both peak sensitivity and chromatographic separation had to be verified. Therefore, two non-design variables were necessary. The distribution of the peaks over analysis time was applied to describe the quality of the chromatographic separation. The sensitivity was described with the signal to noise ratio (S/N). The evaluation of the measured data was accomplished with the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and the Response Surface Methodology (RSM). Three main effects (concentration, ionization temperature, dwell time) and no significant interaction effect were found for the response variable “S/N”. The variables of concentration, ionization temperature, and dwell time had no significant effects for the response variable “S/N”. The ANOVA of the response variable chromatographic separation abandoned no significant effects as well. Therefore, robustness of the method can be guaranteed for all non significant design variables.  相似文献   

Near real-time estimation of Sea and Land surface temperature for MSG SEVIRI sensors     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2020

Land and Sea Surface Temperatures (LST and SST) are both recognized as Essential Climate Variables, and are routinely retrieved by a wealth of satellites. However, for validated approaches, the latest data are usually not available to the general public. We offer to bridge this gap, by using Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI), with its 15 min temporal resolution. Here, we present generic algorithms for the retrieval of both LST and SST, valid for the SEVIRI instrument onboard MSG platforms 8–11, which we validate using hourly data of 4 ground stations and 11 buoys in Spain over the years 2015 to 2018. These validations show that in the best conditions of surface homogeneity (cloud-free summer nights), errors in our LST estimation are below 1.5 K for stations with good thermal homogeneity. Comparison with LSA-SAF (Land Surface Analysis - Satellite Application Facility) LST shows differences below 2 K for most of SEVIRI disk, with higher differences in arid areas and during daytime. As for SST retrieval, the average error amount to 0.67 K for cloud-free buoy data. These algorithms have been implemented in a near-real time processing chain, which provide actualized LST and SST maps every 15 min within 5 min of image reception. These maps, along with other products, can be freely consulted from a dedicated webpage (https://www.uv.es/iplsat).  相似文献   

PRECIS模式对宁夏气候模拟能力的初步验证   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈楠  许吟隆  陈晓光  杨侃  张勇 《气象科学》2008,28(1):94-99

本文获得了受权使用英国Hadley气候中心的区域气候模式系统PRECIS已模拟好的中国境内的数据,取其宁夏区域内的模拟值与同期实际观测资料进行对比,分析验证PRECIS模式对宁夏区域气候的模拟能力.结果表明:PRECIS能够模拟宁夏年平均和夏季平均气温的空间分布特征;与观测值相比,模拟的最高气温平均偏差仅为0.5℃; PRECIS能够模拟出15a月平均气温逐渐升高的趋势以及逐日平均、最高和最低气温发生频率的分布特征.PRECIS能够模拟出宁夏年平均和夏季降水基本的空间差异和季节分布特征,但对月平均降水的模拟值整体偏高.  相似文献