Evaluation of the Risk of Marine Slope Instability: A Pseudo-3D Approach for Application to Large Areas     

Nabil Sultan  Pierre Cochonat  Jean Fran  ois Bourillet  Florence Cayocca 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2001,19(2):107-133

This article presents a methodology developed to evaluate the instability of submarine slopes that extend over a large area. Special attention was paid to (1) the complex geometry (bathymetry) and the expanse of the slope, (2) the heterogeneity of the sediment, and (3) the distribution of the pore pressure. The safety factor was considered as a spatially varying quantity. The General Formulation (GLE, Fredlund and Krahn 1977), which fully satisfies equilibrium conditions, was used for evaluating the stability of the marine slope. The submarine slope failure, which occurred on 16 October 1979 during the construction of the new Nice airport, was studied in order to test the developed model. Geotechnical parameters were taken from experimental tests carried out by IFREMER on 19 cores extracted at different depths (from 27 m to 1300 m) (Cochonat, Bourillet, and Savoye, 1993; Mulder et al., 1994). Many scenarios were proposed in order to explain the cause of the Nice slope failure (Habib, 1994). In this article, two of those scenarios were tested. Simulation results are presented and discussed.  相似文献   

抗滑桩设计推力计算方法研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

和海芳  祁生文  伍法权  贺可强 《工程地质学报》2008,16(5):694-698

滑坡推力是抗滑桩设计推力的重要依据,工程中通常使用剩余推力法来计算滑坡推力。为了比较准确合理地计算出抗滑桩的设计推力,提出了在剩余推力法基础上的一种新的抗滑桩设计推力取值方法。分析极限平衡状态下和工程安全要求下各条块的剩余下滑力,选择合理的桩位,使得抗滑桩位于滑坡体的抗滑段;然后调整桩后滑体的剩余下滑力,其调整量一方面保证桩前桩后滑体满足工程安全要求,另一方面则作为抗滑桩设计推力的修正依据,其过程由程序实现。通过实例证明了该方法的合理性。同时对今后抗滑桩设计推力的合理取值提供了参考作用。  相似文献   

确定边坡最危险滑动面的计算机模拟   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5  

易念平  吴恒  张信贵  韦珊珊 《工程地质学报》2002,10(3):326-330

边坡稳定性分析 ,关键是确定潜在的滑动面 ,目的是有利于工程安全。本文编制了二、三维计算机模拟程序 ,在二维模拟中提出了四种计算模式 ,三维模拟中考虑了空间、荷载、渗流效应 ,结合工程实例对边坡进行模拟并对土层抗剪强度参数进行了反演 ,模拟计算与实测结果吻合 ,模拟出的抗剪强度参数平均值与实测的抗剪强度参数标准值相当  相似文献   

Information structuring and risk-based inspection for the marine oil pipelines     

《Applied Ocean Research》2016

The proposed work is incorporated into the research theme concerning the maintenance and inspection of sensitive facilities in production systems. It is essential to promote the methodological deployment of inspection techniques to ensure the good functioning of services provided by complex production systems as well as their different components. We use a risk-based inspection methodology offering an organized analysis with knowledge sharing for collaborative possibilities in a multidisciplinary context and it consists of the following steps: data acquisition and information collection, failure analysis (probability and consequences), risk assessment, inspection plan, mitigation and revaluation. The application of this methodology can improve the maintenance management strategies of industrial companies. The inspection department is able to forecast its potential failure, root causes and impacts on the safe operation of the considered production system, based on a reliable inventory of existing situations and review options for continuous improvement in maintenance management. In particular, we addressed the application of a Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) methodology in the French petroleum company with operations on the west coast of central and southern Africa. The incorporation of expert knowledge into risk assessment is helping to find the best preventive plan for pipeline inspection in the case study.  相似文献   

青藏铁路冻土区环境问题对工程安全可靠性影响   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

原思成  张鲁新  韩利民  曹玉新 《工程地质学报》2006,14(4):433-437

本文分析了青藏铁路冻土区主要工程对多年冻土温度、水分特征和冻土环境特征的影响,探讨了冻土区工程环境与冻土环境之间相互作用特点。进而论述了控制外界对冻土工程环境系统的热侵蚀是保证冻土区工程安全可靠性的关键问题。  相似文献   

青藏铁路冻土区路基工程安全可靠性监测技术研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

曹玉新  张鲁新  许兰民  韩利民 《工程地质学报》2006,14(6):841-846

通过对冻土区路基工程和冻土之间相互作用过程的分析,提出冻土区路基工程的安全可靠性监测关键技术一是监测方法,二是监测手段,三是数据分析。冻土区路基工程的安全可靠性首先取决于工程周围和工程基底多年冻土的热稳定性,其次取决于发生变形的路基填土厚度及其基底融化层厚度。因此,路基顶面以下不同深度地温监测和年际冻融季节时段路基土层变形监测是冻土区工程长期可靠性监测的主要指标。青藏铁路自然条件的严酷性,要求监测手段具有可靠性和耐久性以及对复杂自然条件变化的适应性。文章提出一种自动观测多年冻土地温和路基变形,并能够实现数据无线传输的现场监测系统设计方案,通过现场试验,证明这种监测系统能够适应青藏高原恶劣的自然条件,减轻了人工监测的劳苦,具有可靠性和耐久性。作者还提出了能够简便判断冻土区工程安全可靠性的监测数据分析方法,对目前冻土区工程安全可靠性分析具有一定的理论指导作用。  相似文献   

Reliability of mooring lines and piles for a permanently manned vessel in a tropical cyclone environment     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

The factors of safety for stationkeeping systems in current standards (ISO, API) are not derived or validated using reliability analyses. As the oil and gas exploration and production is breaking new boundaries, deploying new floating systems and moving into regions with harsher environments, it is of paramount importance to understand what level of reliability these new marine structures are achieving. This paper presents a reliability analysis of the mooring system of a Floating LNG (FLNG) vessel permanently moored and permanently manned offshore North West Australia in a tropical cyclone environment. The reliability analysis addresses both the mooring chain and the pile foundation. The analysis accounts for the long term characteristics of the environment, including the short term variability, in response to a given sea state and the variability and uncertainty in strength of the mooring chain and the pile. The stationkeeping system was analysed using detailed time domain simulations, capturing system non-linearities and low frequency oscillations as well as wave frequency responses and, thereby, reducing modelling uncertainties to a minimum.It is found that for the conditions modelled, neither the chain nor the pile meet a target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum using the factors of safety commonly used in design following current ISO and API standards. New factors of safety are proposed to achieve this target reliability. For the pile design, one complicating factor is that current design standards do not explicitly define the exceedance probability that should be associated with the characteristic value of the undrained shear strength to be used in the design. It is demonstrated that the required factor of safety is crucially dependent on the definition of this characteristic value and on the level and the type of uncertainty in the soil strength profile. A recommendation is made regarding the definition of this characteristic value and the associated factor of safety. Furthermore, it is found that designing the mooring system to an environmental condition with a return period of 10,000 yr (as an Abnormal Limit State event), and setting the factor of safety to unity, meets the target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum for the pile, if the characteristic undrained shear strength is a lower bound, defined in this paper by the 10th percentile value. For the chain however, this target reliability is not achieved.  相似文献   

安全生产投入产出理论及模型研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

黄盛仁  陆万雨等 《江苏地质》2001,25(2):122-125

系统地阐述了安全生产投入产出理论，并借助经济学知识建立了全国安全生产投入产出表，求出了一系列的方程和系数，这对于政府和企业制定其合理、科学的安全生产政策具有一定的指导意义。  相似文献   

Evaluation of safety of hydraulic structures affected by migrating pits     

Y-K. Tung  K. -C. Yeh 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1993,7(2):131-145

Because it can be carried by flowing water, a sand/gravel pit on the river bed could migrate downstream. Consequently, the presence of pits on river beds could pose a safety threat to in-stream hydraulic structures such as bridge piers. A pit migration model can be used to predict progressive changes of pit geometry as it migrates downstream. However, due to the existence of many uncertainties, the maximum pit depth cannot be predicted with certainty. This paper adopted a simple pit migration model and evaluated the uncertainty associated with the calculated maximum pit depth. Such information is essential for evaluating the probability that a migrating pit could pose a safety threat to a downstream hydraulic structure. Three reliability analysis techniques were applied and their performances were compared.  相似文献   

Influence of rainfall on the deformation and stability of a slope in overconsolidated clays: a case study   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

E.?E.?AlonsoEmail author  A.?Gens  C.?H.?Delahaye 《Hydrogeology Journal》2003,11(1):174-192

The behaviour of an instrumented unstable slope in a profile of weathered overconsolidated clay has been analysed. Available field investigation data and laboratory tests were integrated in a coupled hydromechanical model of the slope. Particular attention was given to the unsaturated soil conditions above the water table and to the influence of the rainfall record. Recorded pore-water pressures helped to identify the hydrogeological conditions of the slope. The coupled model was used to compute slope deformations and the variation of safety with time. Actual rainfall records were also integrated into the analysis. Comparison of measurements and calculations illustrate the nature of the slope instability and the complex relationships between mechanical and hydraulic factors. Electronic Publication  相似文献