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本文通过对观测和再分析数据采用最大协方差分析以及回归、合成等分析方法,研究了青藏高原夏季地表气温与南半球大气环流之间的遥相关关系。结果表明,前期(4月)南半球极地—中高纬度大气环流呈现负位势高度异常、较低纬度印度洋—西太平洋区域呈现正位势高度异常时,高原中部和东部大部分区域夏季出现暖异常。在上述遥相关中,印度洋—西太平洋海温异常可能起到了重要的中间桥梁作用。在高原夏季温度偏高的年份,前期跨赤道的印度洋—西太平洋海温也持续偏暖,带来的海陆热力对比减小、经向跨赤道气流减弱有利于削弱夏季的季风环流,使得高原夏季降水偏少,有利于形成高原夏季的暖异常。在这一高原气温—南半球大气环流的遥相关关系中,4月南半球的大气位势高度场异常和与印度洋—西太平洋海温异常相关的异常高度场分布也十分相似。这一前期的跨赤道区域海温异常与南半球中高纬度位势高度场异常的因果关系仍有待进一步揭示。 相似文献
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In this paper new orbital elements are given for eleven binaries. For eight of them, WDS 00003–4417 = I 1477, WDS 00106–7313 = I 43 AB, WDS 00366+5609 = A 914, WDS 00519–4343 = I 47, WDS 01315+1521 = BU 506, WDS 01577+4434 = A 1526, WDS 08144–4550 = FIN 113 AB and WDS 08291–4756 = FIN 315 Aa‐Ab, the orbital elements are calculated for the first time. For three of them, WDS 04422+2257 = MCA 16 Aa‐Ab, WDS 08275–5501 = FIN 116 and WDS 14567–6247 = FIN 372, the orbital elements are recalculated. One of the eleven binaries, MCA 16 Aa‐Ab, was discovered by McAlister in 1980 by speckle interferometry and four pairs were discovered by Finsen between 1929 and 1960. For these five pairs, all measured separations are less than 0″.4 and most of the observations were done by using the interferometric techniques. The orbital periods calculated here are between 39 and 270 years. The remaining six pairs were discovered between 1878 and 1926 and most of the observations are visual. They have longer orbital periods, between 384 and 1637 years. In addition to the orbital elements the masses, dynamical parallaxes, absolute magnitudes and ephemerides for the next five years are also given in this paper (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) 相似文献
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Ecosystem-based marine spatial management: Review of concepts, policies, tools, and critical issues 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Stelios Katsanevakis Vanessa Stelzenmüller Andy South Thomas Kirk Sørensen Peter J.S. Jones Sandy Kerr Fabio Badalamenti Christos Anagnostou Patricia Breen Guillem Chust Giovanni D’Anna Mike Duijn Tatiana Filatova Fabio Fiorentino Helena Hulsman Kate Johnson Aristomenis P. Karageorgis Ingrid Kröncke Simone Mirto Carlo Pipitone Susan Portelli Wanfei Qiu Henning Reiss Dimitris Sakellariou Maria Salomidi Luc van Hoof Vassiliki Vassilopoulou Tomás Vega Fernández Sandra Vöge Anke Weber Argyro Zenetos Remment ter Hofstede 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2011,54(11):807-820
Conventional sectoral management and piecemeal governance are considered less and less appropriate in pursuit of sustainable development. Ecosystem based marine spatial management (EB-MSM) is an approach that recognizes the full array of interactions within an ecosystem, including human uses, rather than considering single issues, species, or ecosystem services in isolation. Marine spatial planning and ocean zoning are emerging concepts that can support EB-MSM. EB-MSM is driven by high-level goals that managers aim to achieve through the implementation of measures. High-level goals and objectives need to be translated into more operational objectives before specific targets, limits and measures can be elaborated.Monitoring, evaluation and adaptation are necessary to ensure that marine management measures are both effective and efficient. Solid monitoring frameworks are the foundation of adaptive management, as they provide the necessary information to evaluate performance and the effectiveness of management actions. Marine protected areas (MPAs) - possibly set up in networks - constitute a key component in EB-MSM policies and practises and have been applied as a cornerstone in conservation of marine biodiversity, management of fish populations, development of coastal tourism, etc. Moreover, MPA experiences have provided methods and concepts (such as zoning) to a wider EB-MSM context. The assignment of values to biophysical features of the marine environment allows the direct assessment of related management choices and may assist EB-MSM.A range of monetary valuation techniques have been proposed to reduce attributes of goods and services to a single metric. However, in the marine environment such an approach is often over simplistic, and thus less reductive techniques may be necessary. Rather than producing a single metric, the results of non-monetary assessments guide policy allowing weight to be given as necessary to potential areas of conflict and consensus.Strategies to take into account climate change effects and geohazard risks in EB-MSM have been applied or proposed worldwide. EB-MSM regimes must be alert to such risks and flexible to account for changes. 相似文献
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Modification of the SWAT model to simulate regional groundwater flow using a multicell aquifer 
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下载免费PDF全文 The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) has been widely used and thoroughly tested in many places in the world. The application of the SWAT model has pointed out that 2 of the major weaknesses of SWAT are related to the nonspatial reference of the hydrologic response unit concept and to the simplified groundwater concept, which contribute to its low performance in baseflow simulation and its inability to simulate regional groundwater flow. This study modified the groundwater module of SWAT to overcome the above limitations. The modified groundwater module has 2 aquifers. The local aquifer, which is the shallow aquifer in the original SWAT, represents a local groundwater flow system. The regional aquifer, which replaces the deep aquifer of the original SWAT, represents intermediate and regional groundwater flow systems. Groundwater recharge is partitioned into local and regional aquifer recharges. The regional aquifer is represented by a multicell aquifer (MCA) model. The regional aquifer is discretized into cells using the Thiessen polygon method, where centres of the cells are locations of groundwater observation wells. Groundwater flow between cells is modelled using Darcy's law. Return flow from cell to stream is conceptualized using a non‐linear storage–discharge relationship. The SWAT model with the modified aquifer module, the so‐called SWAT‐MCA, was tested in 2 basins (Wipperau and Neetze) with porous aquifers in a lowland area in Lower Saxony, Germany. Results from the Wipperau basin show that the SWAT‐MCA model is able (a) to simulate baseflow in a lowland area (where baseflow is a dominant source of streamflow) better than the original model and (b) to simulate regional groundwater flow, shown by the simulated groundwater levels in cells, quite well. 相似文献
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M. Scardia J.‐L. Prieur L. Pansecchi R.W. Argyle M. Sala S. Basso M. Ghigo L. Koechlin E. Aristidi 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2008,329(1):54-68
We present relative astrometric measurements of visual binaries made during the second semester of 2005, with the speckle camera PISCO at the 102 cm Zeiss telescope of Brera Astronomical Observatory, in Merate. Our sample contains orbital couples as well as binaries whose motion is still uncertain. The purpose of this long term program is to improve the accuracy of the orbits and determine the masses of the components. We performed 130 new observations of 120 objects, with most of the angular separations in the range 0″.1–4″, and with an average accuracy of 0″.01. Most of the position angles could be determined without the usual 180. ambiguity with the application of triple‐correlation techniques, and their mean error is 0°8. We have found a possible new triple system: ADS 11077. The measurements of the closest binaries were made with a new data reduction procedure, based on model fitting of the background of the auto‐correlations. As this procedure proved to be very efficient, we have re‐processed the old observations of close binaries made with PISCO in Merate since 2004. We thus improved 20 measurements already published and obtained 7 new measurements for observations that were previously reported as “unresolved”. We finally present revised orbits for ADS 684, MCA 55Aac (in the Beta 1 Cyg–Albireo multiple system) and ADS 14783 for which the previously published orbits led to large residuals with our measurements and for which the new observations made since their computation allowed a significant improvement of those old orbits. The sum of the masses that we derived for those systems are consistent with the spectral type of the stars and the dynamic parallaxes are in good agreement with the parallaxes measured by Hipparcos. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) 相似文献
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Ricardo DELGADO TELLEZ Ershun ZHONG Yang ZUHU Arisleydis PEÑA DE LA CRUZ 《地球空间信息科学学报》2013,16(2):120-129
This paper presents a Spatial Decision Support System for local governments of developing countries. It allows municipality government, enterprises, scientific community and civil society to address decision problems using GIS. The framework is supported by four modules of information technologies: Environmental Decision Support Database, Data Manipulation, Decision Support, and Mapping. A case study is presented covering the implementation of this framework in one municipality of Cuba. An example of land suitability planning for coconut crops is used to evaluate the system performance and usability. Results show local municipalities are able to use this framework to solve local decision problems using state of the art decision making even with low infrastructure development. 相似文献
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依据近期发表的古丝绸之路沿线若干地区(点)的温度重建序列,结合干湿变化等代用记录,分析了过去千年古丝绸之路沿线温度变化的基本特征,以及这些地区(点)在“中世纪气候异常期”(MCA,约950-1250年)和“小冰期”(LIA,约1450-1850年)的干湿特征异同。主要结论为：①过去2000年古丝绸之路的温度变化经历了1-3世纪温暖、4-7世纪前期寒冷、7世纪后期-11世纪初温暖、11世纪中期-12世纪初偏冷、12世纪中期-13世纪中期温暖、13世纪末-19世纪中期寒冷和20世纪快速增暖的百年际波动过程;但不同区域间的年代至百年尺度变化位相不完全同步,波动幅度也存在差异。②各地干湿特征在MCA和LIA也存在一定差异：中国的关中平原及河西走廊在MCA间的干湿变率较LIA大;中亚干旱区MCA期间气候偏干,LIA期间偏湿;欧洲中北部以及斯堪的纳维亚半岛南部等地在MCA间气候较LIA偏干,且中部地区LIA间的干湿变率较MCA大;芬兰和斯堪的纳维亚半岛北部以及俄罗斯等地MCA间的气候较LIA更湿润。 相似文献
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本文评估了36个CMIP5模式和39个CMIP6模式对近期观测中揭示的北半球冬季大气环流与高原冬春气温之间的相关关系的模拟能力。利用最大协方差(MCA)分析方法,计算并比较了观测和模式中冬季北半球200 hPa位势高度场与同后期青藏高原近地面气温的耦合关系。整体而言,大部分CMIP模式能够模拟出显著的冬季北半球大气环流与青藏高原气温之间的相关关系,且CMIP6模式模拟相关特征和作用机制的能力较CMIP5均有所提升。与观测相比,历史情景下36个CMIP5模式中有26个能够模拟出显著的大气环流与同后期高原气温之间的相关关系,其中对于相关的位势高度场空间模态的模拟明显好于对高原气温异常场空间模态的模拟。同情景下39个CMIP6模式中有37个能模拟出显著相关关系,且CMIP6模式更能模拟出观测中MCA模态的位势高度场上北极涛动(AO)和西太平洋遥相关型(WP)反相位叠加的大气环流特征。在对MCA模态时间变率的模拟上,大部分模式都能重现青藏高原整体变暖的趋势,部分模式能够模拟出观测中位势高度场时间主成分的年际变率,并且CMIP6表现要优于CMIP5。对耦合环流型的动力诊断显示,相比CMIP5模式,CMIP6中有更多模式可以模拟出极地—高原之间的遥相关波列,且对波列结构的模拟更完整。 相似文献
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大兴安岭地处季风气候的尾闾区,是一个研究全球变化的关键区域.但由于该地区古气候代用指标(树轮、孢粉、石笋等)获取比较困难,历史文献也缺乏,使得古气候研究受到了限制.本研究通过大兴安岭北部的漠河县满归镇附近一个厚88 cm的泥炭剖面的孢粉记录,根据831个表土样品的花粉数据和附近90个气象台站30年的地面观测数据,运用现代类比法( Modern Analogue Technique,简称MAT)重建了该地区过去2100年的年均温(Tann)、年降水量(Pann)、 1月均温(Tjan)和7月均温(Tjuly),结果表明Tann和Tjan的波动达到2. 4℃, Tjuly的波动为1. 7℃, Pann波动为28. 2 mm.该地区的气候变化分为3个阶段:阶段Ⅰ(150 BC^850 A.D.)温度和降水量相对较低,年均温比现代30年均值低约0. 5℃;阶段Ⅱ(850~1300 A.D.)以温度升高-降低的波动为特征,升温在1070~1170 A. D.期间最明显,年均温比现代 30 年平均值高 0. 2℃,这一时期相当于欧洲中世纪气候异常期( the Medieval Climate Anomaly,简称MCA);阶段Ⅲ(1300~2000 A.D.)早期(1300~1900 A.D.)以气温较低为特征,这一时期相当于小冰期(the Little Ice Age,简称LIA),年均温比现代30年平均值低0. 8℃,晚期(1900~2000 A.D.)呈现升温的趋势. 相似文献