Coupling a two-way nested primitive equation model and a statistical SST predictor of the Ligurian Sea via data assimilation     

A. Barth  A. Alvera-Azcrate  J.-M. Beckers  M. Rixen 《Ocean Modelling》2006,13(3-4):255-270

A primitive equation model and a statistical predictor are coupled by data assimilation in order to combine the strength of both approaches. In this work, the system of two-way nested models centred in the Ligurian Sea and the satellite-based ocean forecasting (SOFT) system predicting the sea surface temperature (SST) are used. The data assimilation scheme is a simplified reduced order Kalman filter based on a constant error space. The assimilation of predicted SST improves the forecast of the hydrodynamic model compared to the forecast obtained by assimilating past SST observations used by the statistical predictor. This study shows that the SST of the SOFT predictor can be used to correct atmospheric heat fluxes. Traditionally this is done by relaxing the model SST towards the climatological SST. Therefore, the assimilation of SOFT SST and climatological SST are also compared.  相似文献   

Hierarchical decomposition of variance with applications in environmental mapping based on satellite images     

Ferenc Csillag  Sándor Kabos 《Mathematical Geology》1996,28(4):385-405

A quadtree-based image segmentation procedure (HQ) is presented to map complex environmental conditions. It applies a hierarchical nested analysis of variance within the framework of multiresolution wavelet approximation. The procedure leads to an optimal solution for determining mapping units based on spatial variability with constraints on the arrangement and shape of the units. Linkages to geostatisiics are pointed out, but the HQ decomposition algorithm does not require any homogeneity criteria. The computer implementation can be parameterized by either the number of required mapping units or the maximum within-unit variance, or it can provide a spectrum of significances of nested ANOVA. The detailed mathematical background and methodology is illustrated by a salt-affected grassland mapping study (Hortobágy, Hungary), where heterogeneous environmental characteristics have been sampled and predicted based on remotely sensed images using these principles.  相似文献   

南海热带气旋数值预报模式与全球谱模式的嵌套试验     

万齐林  王康玲 《热带气象学报》1997,13(4):289-296

分析了各嵌套变量的作用和效果，发现采用部分变量嵌套就能取得一定效果，各变量的作用也不完全相同。这样，可以选取作用大，质量好，易处理的变量进行嵌套。并相应地提出了一个边界嵌套处理方案，应用于南海带热带气旋数值预报有限区模式（ＴＬ１０）与全球谐模式（Ｔ６３）的嵌套过程，通过数值预报试验，表明采用该嵌套处理方案能够取得良好的效果。  相似文献   

Fitting the Linear Model of Coregionalization by Generalized Least Squares   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Bernard Pelletier  Pierre Dutilleul  Guillaume Larocque  James W. Fyles 《Mathematical Geology》2004,36(3):323-343

In geostatistical studies, the fitting of the linear model of coregionalization (LMC) to direct and cross experimental semivariograms is usually performed with a weighted least-squares (WLS) procedure based on the number of pairs of observations at each lag. So far, no study has investigated the efficiency of other least-squares procedures, such as ordinary least squares (OLS), generalized least squares (GLS), and WLS with other weighing functions, in the context of the LMC. In this article, we compare the statistical properties of the sill estimators obtained with eight least-squares procedures for fitting the LMC: OLS, four WLS, and three GLS. The WLS procedures are based on approximations of the variance of semivariogram estimates at each distance lag. The GLS procedures use a variance–covariance matrix of semivariogram estimates that is (i) estimated using the fourth-order moments with sill estimates (GLS₁), (ii) calculated using the fourth-order moments with the theoretical sills (GLS₂), and (iii) based on an approximation using the correlation between semivariogram estimates in the case of spatial independence of the observations (GLS₃). The current algorithm for fitting the LMC by WLS while ensuring the positive semidefiniteness of sill matrix estimates is modified to include any least-squares procedure. A Monte Carlo study is performed for 16 scenarios corresponding to different combinations of the number of variables, number of spatial structures, values of ranges, and scale dependence of the correlations among variables. Simulation results show that the mean square error is accounted for mostly by the variance of the sill estimators instead of their squared bias. Overall, the estimated GLS₁ and theoretical GLS₂ are the most efficient, followed by the WLS procedure that is based on the number of pairs of observations and the average distance at each lag. On that basis, GLS₁ can be recommended for future studies using the LMC.  相似文献   

地理国情各要素之间套合关系检查要点分析     

郎宁  李卓  刘毅 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(9):114-116

将地理国情普查工作中地表覆盖和地理国情要素两个重要成果之间的套合关系进行梳理,依据各项规定和生产实践经验,对重点问题进行整理和分析,明确了两者相互关系并提供一些有益的建议,为提高地理国情普查成果质量提供帮助。  相似文献   

Probabilistic Approach of Coastal Defense Against Typhoon Attacks for Nuclear Power Plant     

刘德辅  韩凤亭  庞亮  李华军  谢波涛  王风清 《中国海洋工程》2010,24(2):265-275

With the global wanning and sea level rising, it is widely recognized that there is an increasing tendency of typhoon occurrence frequency and intensity. The defenses code against typhoon attacks for nuclear power plant should be calibrated because of the increasing threat of typhoon disaster and severe consequences. This paper discusses the probabilistic approach of definitions about "probable maximum typhoon" and "probable maximum storm surge" in nuclear safety regulations of China and has made some design code calibrations by use of a newly proposed Double Layer Nested Multi-objective Probability Model (DLNMPM).  相似文献   

青藏高原月NDVI时空动态变化及其对气候变化的 响应     

郑海亮  房世峰  刘成程  吴金华  杜加强 《地球信息科学学报》2019,21(2):201-214

青藏高原脆弱的高寒植被对外界干扰十分敏感,使其成为研究植被对气候变化响应的理想区域之一。青藏高原气候变化剧烈,在较短的合成时间研究气候变化对植被的影响十分必要。因此,本文利用GIMMS NDVI时间序列数据集,研究了1982-2012年青藏高原生长季月尺度植被生长的时空动态变化,探讨了其与气温、降水量和日照时数等气候因子的响应关系。结果表明：在区域尺度上,除8月外,其他各月份植被均呈增加趋势,显著增加多发生在4-7月和9月;大部分月份的NDVI增加速率随着时段的延长显著减小,表明NDVI增加趋势放缓;在像元尺度上,月NDVI显著变化的区域多呈增加趋势,但显著减少范围的扩张多快于显著增加。4月和7月植被生长主要是受气温和日照时数共同作用,6月和9月受气温的控制,而8月则主要受降水量的影响。长时间序列NDVI数据集的出现为采用嵌套时段研究植被生长变化趋势奠定了前提,而植被活动变化趋势的持续性则有助于形象表征植被活动变化过程、深入理解植被对气候变化的响应和预测植被未来生长变化趋势。由此推测,青藏高原月NDVI未来增加趋势总体上趋于缓和,但在像元尺度显著变化的区域趋于增加。  相似文献   

Numerical simulation of the Kuroshio using nested model of three-dimensional baroclinic circulation     

李毓湘  蔡怡 《中国海洋湖沼学报》1999,17(1):19-27

ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＴｈｅＫｕｒｏｓｈｉｏｉｓｔｈｅｗｅｓｔｅｒｎｂｏｕｎｄａｒｙｃｕｒｒｅｎｔｉｎｔｈｅＮｏｒｔｈＰａｃｉｆｉｃａｎｄｉｓｔｈｅｃｏｕｎｔｅｒｐａｒｔｏｆｔｈｅＧｕｌｆＳｔｒｅａｍｉｎｔｈｅＮｏｒｔｈＡｔｌａｎｔｉｃ.ＴｈｅｏｒｉｇｉｎｏｆｔｈｅＫｕｒｏｓｈｉｏｉｓｔｈｅｎｏｒｔｈｗａｒｄｆｌｏｗｉｎｇｂｒａｎｃｈｏｆｔｈｅＮｏｒｔｈＥｑｕａｔｏｒｉａｌＣｕｒｒｅｎｔｗｈｉｃｈｉｓｄｉｖｉｄｅｄｉｎｔｏｔｗｏｃｕｒｒｅｎｔｓｏｎａｐｐｒｏａｃｈｉｎｇｔｈｅｗｅｓｔｅｒｎｂｏ…  相似文献   

一个三重嵌套的中尺度模式及暴雨模拟试验          下载免费PDF全文

郑国安  郭肖容 《应用气象学报》1995,6(2):129-137

该文介绍了新近发展的一个高分辨率有限区模式(HLAM)。它是通过三重嵌套在现有计算机(CYBER-992)条件下实现的，其范围、地理位置及侧边界宽度均设计为灵活可变，尤其水平分辨率可按任意倍数提高。利用水平分辨率为50km左右的模式版本进行了实际资料的降水个例实验。结果是令人鼓舞的:(1)与嵌套的低分辨率(格距增大4倍)模式预报比较，不论低压中心位置、强降水落区、雨带走向及降水中心位置的预报都更接近实况;(2)高分辨率模式积分区域虽然缩小，但并未影响预报效果，其48小时预报仍有较高精度。初步试验表明，进一步完善和改进后的HLAM完全可以发展为一个用于中尺度研究及业务使用的高分辨率区域模式。  相似文献   

一种减少有限区气候模式嵌套误差积累的方法     

李莉  赵俊英  颜宏  黄丽萍 《气象》2001,27(3):3-7

介绍了一种用于减少有限区气候模式中嵌套误差积累的新方法——三维嵌套方法 ,详细阐述了这种方法提出的原因、必要性和它的理论基础。在有限区气候模式上进行三维嵌套与二维嵌套的对比试验 ,试验结果表明三维嵌套方案可减少嵌套预报误差的积累 ,并且对于降水的预报也有很大的改善。  相似文献