基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测     

李建新  刘小生  肖钢  周文  刘仁志 《大地测量与地球动力学》2020,40(6):577-580

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。  相似文献   

THERMAL EFFECTS OF BUILDING′S EXTERNAL SURFACES IN CITY——Characteristics of Heat Flux into and out of External Wall Surfaces     

ZHANG Yi-ping  HE Yun-ling    LIU Yu-hong  MA You-xin  LI You-rong  DOU Jun-xia     《中国地理科学(英文版)》2004,(4)

1INTRODUCTIONWiththerecentmodernizationandurbanizationofChi-na,urbanareashavegreatlyincreased, andgiantbuild-ings,especiallythosetallerthan100m,havebeendomi-nantincities,whichhave resultedinthegreatincreaseintheproportionofbuilding'sexternalsurfacetototalurbanarea.Thedifferencesofthermalpropertiesmain-lyinducedbysolarradiationbetweenbuilding'sexter-nalsurfacesareobviousfordifferentexposures,whichcaninevitablyinfluencethedistributionsofairtempera-turenearby,eventheverticaldistributionsofurb…  相似文献   

Investigating the mechanisms leading to the deglaciation of past continental northern hemisphere ice sheets with the CLIMBER–GREMLINS coupled model     

Sylvie Charbit  Masa Kageyama  Didier Roche  Catherine Ritz  Gilles Ramstein 《Global and Planetary Change》2005,48(4):1887

A coupling procedure between a climate model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2.3) and a 3-dimensional thermo-mechanical ice-sheet model (GREMLINS) has been elaborated. The resulting coupled model describes the evolution of atmosphere, ocean, biosphere, cryosphere and their mutual interactions. It is used to perform several simulations of the Last Deglaciation period to identify the physical mechanisms at the origin of the deglaciation process. Our baseline experiment, forced by insolation and atmospheric CO₂, produces almost complete deglaciation of past northern hemisphere continental ice sheets, although ice remains over the Cordilleran region at the end of the simulation and also in Alaska and Eastern Siberia. Results clearly demonstrate that, in this study, the melting of the North American ice sheet is critically dependent on the deglaciation of Fennoscandia through processes involving switches of the thermohaline circulation from a glacial mode to a modern one and associated warming of the northern hemisphere. A set of sensitivity experiments has been carried out to test the relative importance of both forcing factors and internal processes in the deglaciation mechanism. It appears that the deglaciation is primarily driven by insolation. However, the atmospheric CO₂ modulates the timing of the melting of the Fennoscandian ice sheet, and results relative to Laurentide illustrate the existence of threshold CO₂ values, that can be translated in terms of critical temperature, below which the deglaciation is impeded. Finally, we show that the beginning of the deglaciation process of the Laurentide ice sheet may be influenced by the time at which the shift of the thermohaline circulation from one mode to the other occurs.  相似文献   

广州地区深基坑支护形式研究     

王岭  王睿 《探矿工程》2008,35(11):42-47

介绍了广州地区基坑支护近年来的主要类型及其适用范围,并在分析选型各影响因素的基础上,总结出设计选型的要点。  相似文献   

基于AGA的SVM需水预测模型研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张灵  陈晓宏  刘丙军  王兆礼 《水文》2008,28(1):38-42,46

需水预测是一个由城市人口、工业水平、社会经济水平共同作用的多因素、多层次的复杂非线性系统.其结果将直接影响受区域水资源承载力约束的产业结构、布局形态等决策.作为一种集中参数预报方法,支持向量机方法具有对未来样本的较好的泛化性能,对于这类资料缺乏、系统结构尚欠清晰的问题可以取得较好的模拟和预测结果.基于此,本文将支持向量机方法引入需水预测领域,建立了需水预测支持向量机模型.同时,本文将加速遗传算法和支持向量机方法耦合起来,构造了支持向量机模型参数的自适应优化算法.模型在珠海市的应用实例表明:与简单遗传算法比较,AGA的模型参数寻优效率更高;与BP神经网络模型相比,SVM模型较好地解决了小样本、经验性等问题,并取得了较高的预测精度.  相似文献   

Visualization for fisheries management from a spatiotemporal perspective   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Kemp  Z.; Meaden  G. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2002,59(1):190-202

  相似文献   

Preliminary study on different nutrient pools supplies for the phytoplankton growth in the Jiaozhou Bay in China in the fall of 2004     

WANG Dan  SUN Jun  SONG Shuqun  LUAN Qingshan  Joey McMurdie 《海洋学报(英文版)》2007,26(3):110-120

The source and significance of two nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorous, were investigated by a modified dilution method performed on seawater samples from the Jiaozhou Bay, in autumn 2004. This modified dilution method accounted for the phytoplankton growth rate, microzooplankton grazing mortality rate, the internal and external nutrient pools, as well as nutrient supplied through remineralization by microzooplankton. The results indicated that the phytoplankton net growth rate increased in turn from inside the bay, to outside the bay, to in the Xiaogang Harbor. The phytoplankton maximum growth rates and microzooplankton grazing mortality rates were 1.14 and 0.92 d-1 outside the bay, 0.42 and 0.32 d-1 inside the bay and 0.98 and 0.62 d-1 in the harbor respectively. Outside the bay, the remineralized nitrogen (Kr=24.49) had heavy influence on the growth of the phytoplankton. Inside the bay, the remineralized phosphorus(Kr=3.49) strongly affected the phytoplankton growth. In the harbor, the remineralized phosphorus (Kr=3.73) was in larger demand by phytoplankton growth. The results demonstrated that the different nutrients pools supplied for phytoplankton growth were greatly in accordance with the phytoplankton community structure, microzooplankton grazing mortality rates and environmental conditions. It is revealed that nutrient remineralization is much more important for the phytoplankton growth in the Jiaozhou Bay than previously believed.  相似文献   

Theoretical aspects of cap-rock and fault seals for single- and two-phase hydrocarbon columns   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

N.L. Watts   《Marine and Petroleum Geology》1987,4(4)

Cap-rock seals can be divided genetically into those that fail by capillary leakage (membrane seals) and those whose capillary entry pressures are so high that seal failure preferentially occurs by fracturing and/or wedging open of faults (hydraulic seals). A given membrane seal can trap a larger oil column than gas column at shallow depths, but below a critical depth (interval), gas is more easily sealed than oil. This critical depth increases with lower API gravity, lower oil GOR and overpressured conditions (for the gas phase). These observations arise from a series of modelling studies of membrane sealing and can be conveniently represented using pressure/ depth (P/D) profiles through sealed hydrocarbon columns. P/D diagrams have been applied to the more complex situation of the membrane sealing of a gas cap underlain by an oil rim; at seal capacity, such a two-phase column will be always greater than if only oil or gas occurs below the seal.These conclusions contrast with those for hydraulic seals where the seal capacity to oil always exceeds that for gas. Moreover, a trapped two-phase column, at hydraulic seal capacity will be less than the maximum-allowed oil-only column, but more than the maximum gas-only column. Unlike membrane seals, hydraulic seal capacity should be directly related to cap-rock thickness, in addition to the magnitude of the minimum effective stress in the sealing layer and the degree of overpressure development in the sequence as a whole.Fault-related seals are effectively analogous to membrane cap-rocks which have been tilted to the angle of the fault plane. Consequently, all of the above conclusions derived for membrane cap-rocks apply to both sealing faults sensu stricto (fault plane itself seals) and juxtaposition faults (hydrocarbon trapped laterally against a juxtaposed sealing unit). The maximum-allowed two-phase column trapped by a sealing fault is greater than for equivalent oil-only and gas-only columns, but less than that predicted for a horizontal membrane cap-rock under similar conditions. Where a two-phase column is present on both sides of a sealing fault (which is at two-phase seal capacity), a deeper oil/water contact (OWC) in one fault block is associated with a deeper gas/oil contact (GOC) compared with the adjacent fault block. If the fault seal is discontinuous in the gas leg, however, the deeper OWC is accompanied by a shallower GOC, whereas a break in the fault seal in the oil leg results in a common OWC in both fault blocks, even though separate GOC's exist. Schematic P/D profiles are provided for each of the above situations from which a series of fundamental equations governing single- and two-phase cap-rock and fault seal capacities can be derived. These relationships may have significant implications for exploration prospect appraisal exercises where more meaningful estimates of differential seal capacities can be made.The membrane sealing theory developed herein assumes that all reservoirs and seals are water-wet and no hydrodynamic flow exists. The conclusions on membrane seal capacity place constraints on the migration efficiency of gas along low-permeabiligy paths at depth where fracturing, wedging open of faults and/or diffusion process may be more important. Contrary to previous assertions, it is speculated that leakage of hydrocarbons through membrane seals occurs in distinct pulses such that the seal is at or near the theoretically calculated seal capacity, once this has been initially attained.Finally, the developed seal theory and P/D profile concepts are applied to a series of development geological problems including the effects of differential depletion, and degree of aquifer support, on sealing fault leakage, and the evaluation of barriers to vertical cross-flow using RFT profiles through depleted reservoirs. It is shown that imbibition processes and dynamic effects related to active cross-flow across such barriers often preclude quantitative analysis and solution of these problems for which simulation studies are usually required.  相似文献   

基于光谱和纹理的SVM矿化蚀变信息提取研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

薛云  戴塔根  杨自安  邹林  刘江龙 《地质找矿论丛》2008,23(3):254-259

针对传统矿化信息提取方法单一,利用光谱或纹理、信息量相对较少、需要大量样本的缺陷,利用基于光谱和纹理的支持向量机(SVM)原理,建立矿化信息提取模型.选择青海泽库县析界日地区作为典型研究区.首先提取研究区光谱和纹理信息,选取训练样本;然后求解最优超平面,进而确定决策函数;最后泛化推广识别其他待识别的样本.通过所提取的遥感蚀变异常信息与重砂异常点叠加分析,叠加基本吻合;从野外实地验证来看,均发现了不同程度的矿化现象,并指出了5个重点异常区.  相似文献   

沿空掘巷合理煤柱宽度综合分析与确定   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

奚家米  毛久海  杨更社  王进锋 《煤田地质与勘探》2008,36(4)

在总结分析经验法、理论计算法、数值模拟法、现场实测等确定煤柱宽度方法优缺点的基础上,提出了采用现场实测和数值模拟相结合的方法来确定保留煤柱宽度。根据石炭井二矿生产实际,分别对巷道开挖前后,不同煤柱宽度下围岩应力、变形进行了模拟,同时利用21053工作面异型煤柱的有利条件,对不同煤柱宽度下巷道围岩变形、支护结构受力等进行了实测。经过对监测数据的分析,得出了巷道围岩变形、支护结构受力与煤柱宽度之间的关系,结合数值模拟结果,确定了石炭井二矿煤柱宽度。  相似文献