This article simulates deep decarbonization pathways for a small open economy that lacks the usual avenues for large CO2 reductions – heavy industry and power generation. A computable general equilibrium model is used to assess the energy and economic impacts of the transition to only one ton of CO2 emissions per capita in 2050. This represents a 76% reduction with respect to 1990 levels, while the population is expected to be 46% larger and GPD to increase by 90%. The article discusses several options and scenarios that are compatible with this emissions target and compares them with a reference scenario that extrapolates already-decided climate and energy policy instruments. We show that the ambitious target is attainable at moderate welfare costs, even if it needs very high carbon prices, and that these costs are lower when either CO2 can be captured and sequestered or electricity consumption can be taxed sufficiently to stabilize it.
Policy relevance
In the context of COP 21, all countries must propose intended contributions that involve deep decarbonization of their economy over the next decades. This article defines and analyses such pathways for Switzerland, taking into consideration the existing energy demand and supply and also already-defined climate policies. It draws several scenarios that are compatible with a target of 1 ton of CO2 emissions per capita in 2050. This objective is very challenging, especially with the nuclear phase out decided after the disaster in Fukushima and the political decision to balance electricity trade. Nevertheless, it is possible to design several feasible pathways that are based on different options. The economic cost is significant but affordable for the Swiss economy. The insights are relevant not only for Switzerland, but also for other industrialized countries when defining their INDCs. 相似文献
Most countries implementing an emissions trading system (ETS), such as EU member states, California in the US, or South Korea, are generally targeting large sized companies, which consume energy above a specific threshold. However, previous studies using computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have analyzed climate policies without considering company size. This may have led to inaccurate results because the impacts of climate policy would differ depending on the coverage of regulated companies. Accordingly, this study examines the environmental and economic impacts of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies, assuming policy results vary by firm size, as covered by the Korean emission trading system. To this end, a CGE model with a separate social accounting matrix based on company size is used to compare three scenarios that reflect different types of carbon pricing methods. The results show that greenhouse gases will be reduced to a lower extent and utility will decrease more if mitigation policies are only imposed to large companies.
Key policy insights
Carbon pricing policies should consider the different impacts on companies of different sizes and industry sectors.
Without considering the different sizes of companies covered by an ETS, the expected carbon price and its economic impact will be underestimated.
Small and medium-sized companies will face more negative impacts than large companies in some industry sectors under an ETS, even if the mitigation burden is only faced by large companies.
Resource use by a country is considered in the context of a production relationship. Resources include natural, produced,
and human capital. The taxation of each of these resource groups has an impact on the efficient use of these inputs through
changes in the relative prices. A computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the Czech Republic is used to evaluate the
impact that various revenue neutral tax structures have on the allocation of economic activity throughout the economy. A Hicksian
welfare measure is used to determine the impact on society’s welfare of revenue neutral shifts in taxes. The results demonstrate
that the change in the tax structure will result in a welfare improvement by as much as 5% for the Czech Republic. The results
provide insight into the role that “getting the prices right” has on sustainability.
Although the term “sustainable development” was first introduced in a report by the International Union for the Conservation
of Nature and Natural Resources in 1980 it did not gain significant notoriety until the Brundtland Commission report in 1987.
For a more detailed discussion see Jamieson, 1998. 相似文献
This paper employs a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to analyse how a carbon tax and/or a national Emissions Trading System (ETS) would affect macroeconomic parameters in Turkey. The modelling work is based on three main policy options for the government by 2030, in the context of Turkey’s mitigation target under its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), that is, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by up to 21% from its Business as Usual (BAU) scenario in 2030: (i) improving the productivity of renewable energy by 1% per annum, a target already included in the INDC, (ii) introducing a new flat rate tax of 15% per ton of CO2 (of a reference carbon price in world markets) imposed on emissions originating from carbon-intensive sectors, and (iii) introducing a new ETS with caps on emission permits. Our base path scenario projects that GHG emissions in 2030 will be much lower than Turkey’s BAU trajectory of growth from 430 Mt CO2-eq in 2013 to 1.175 Mt CO2-eq by 2030, implying that the government’s commitment is largely redundant. On the other hand, if the official target is assumed to be only a simple reduction percentage in 2030 (by 21%), but based on our more realistic base path, the government’s current renewable energy plans will not be sufficient to reach it.
Turkey’s official INDC is based on over-optimistic assumptions of GDP growth and a highly carbon-intensive development pathway;
A carbon tax and/or an ETS would be required to reach the 21% reduction target over a realistic base path scenario for 2030;
The policy options considered in this paper have some effects on major sectors’ shares in total value-added. Yet the reduction in the shares of agriculture, industry, and transportation does not go beyond 1%, while the service sector seems to benefit from most of the policy options;
Overall employment would be affected positively by the renewable energy target, carbon tax, and ETS through the creation of new jobs;
Unemployment rates are lower, economic growth is stronger, and households become better off to a larger extent under an ETS than carbon taxation.
This paper presents a framework for assessing the economic impact of disruption in transportation that can relate the physical
damage to transportation networks to economic losses. A spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model is formulated
and then integrated with a transportation model that can estimate the traffic volumes of freight and passengers. Economic
equilibrium under a disruption in the transportation network is computed subject to the condition that the adjustment of labor
and capital inputs is restricted; the model reflects slow adjustment of these linked to the state of recovery. As a case study,
the model reviews the large Niigata-Chuetsu earthquake of 2004. Considering the damage to the transportation infrastructure,
the model indicates the extent of the economic losses arising from the earthquake distributed over regions as a consequence
of the intra- and interregional trade in a regional economy. The results show that 20% of the indirect losses occur in the
Niigata region directly affected by the earthquake, whereas 40% of the total losses are experienced in the Kanto region and
non-negligible losses reach rather remote zones of the country such as Okinawa. 相似文献
