A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels     

Ivan D. Haigh  Robert Nicholls  Neil Wells 《Coastal Engineering》2010

Sea-level return periods are estimated at 18 sites around the English Channel using: (i) the annual maxima method; (ii) the r-largest method; (iii) the joint probability method; and (iv) the revised joint probability method. Tests are undertaken to determine how sensitive these four methods are to three factors which may significantly influence the results; (a) the treatment of the long-term trends in extreme sea level; (b) the relative magnitudes of the tidal and non-tidal components of sea level; and (c) the frequency, length and completeness of the available data. Results show that unless sea-level records with lengths of at least 50 years are used, the way in which the long-term trends is handled in the different methods can lead to significant differences in the estimated return levels. The direct methods (i.e. methods i and ii) underestimate the long (> 20 years) period return levels when the astronomical tidal variations of sea level (relative to a mean of zero) are about twice that of the non-tidal variations. The performance of each of the four methods is assessed using prediction errors (the difference between the return periods of the observed maximum level at each site and the corresponding data range). Finally, return periods, estimated using the four methods, are compared with estimates from the spatial revised joint probability method along the UK south coast and are found to be significantly larger at most sites along this coast, due to the comparatively short records originally used to calibrate the model in this area. The revised joint probability method is found to have the lowest prediction errors at most sites analysed and this method is recommended for application wherever possible. However, no method can compensate for poor data.  相似文献   

Tectonic and climatic controls on historical landscape modifications: The avulsion of the lower Cecina River (Tuscany, central Italy)     

Marco Benvenuti  Marco Bonini  Giovanna Moratti  Marianna Ricci  Chiara Tanini   《Geomorphology》2008,100(3-4):269-284

Integration of geomorphology, stratigraphy, sedimentology and morphotectonics in the analysis of the lower Cecina River reach, coastal Tuscany, reveals an undocumented historical channel avulsion. Geomorphological evidence and radiocarbon dating support that, from the Last Glacial Maximum until the end of the 16th century, the Cecina River flowed north of the present course and formed a well-developed cuspate delta. Two concurrent factors, active tectonics as a preparing factor and discharge regime as an activation factor, are thus inferred to have favored the avulsion of Cecina River. Fragmentary archaeological and historical records indicate that the late Holocene Cecina River plain was virtually unpopulated until the latest 16th century. This seems the main reason why high-magnitude hydrological events and prominent river channel avulsions were not reported in historical chronicles. From this perspective, geomorphological data may provide important knowledge and understanding of recent dynamics of environmental change when historical record is lacking or missing.  相似文献   

1965—2014年黑龙江省洪涝灾害时空演变特征     

许佳琦  周永吉  姜丽霞  曹义娜  郭立峰 《气象与环境学报》2020,36(3):41-48

基于1965—2014年黑龙江省63个气象站逐月降水资料,利用Z指数、区域洪涝指数、数理统计和反距离权重插值等方法,得出洪涝等级（轻涝、中涝、重涝）,分析近50年黑龙江省不同等级洪涝灾害时空分布特征及其变化趋势。结果表明,近50年黑龙江省发生区域性轻度、中度和重度洪涝灾害分别为7次、7次和6次,降水倾向率为0.864 mm/a;洪涝灾害发生频率分布不均,发生轻涝104次、中涝74次以及重涝29次,洪涝灾害发生频率较高地区逐年扩大;同时,发生洪涝灾害的站数比差异明显,且随时间呈缓慢上升趋势,其中,轻涝、中涝和重涝站数比的增幅分别为1.3/10a、1.6/10a和0.85/10a;洪涝灾害高发期主要在20世纪80年代、90年代和2010年之后,主洪涝区为鹤岗、伊春、黑河和牡丹江地区,次洪涝区为大兴安岭和大庆地区。  相似文献   

珠江三角洲洪水变化及洪水风险与保险   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

陈小红 《热带地理》1999,19(2):117-123

珠江三角洲经济发达,河网密布,洪水问题一直比较突出。原因不仅在于这一区域内水系交错、堤围众多、洪水时空分布不均,还在于伴随该区域经济发展及受人类活动影响的洪水变化。人们对利益与洪水风险的取向直接决定了本区域洪水灾害损失的程度和抗御洪灾的能力。在各种防洪减灾的工程和非工程措施中,洪水保险是值得重视并应尽快开展的工作。  相似文献   

Regionalization and susceptibility assessment to daily precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2017

The present study aims to identify regions of extreme precipitation in mainland Portugal and to create a single index of extreme precipitation susceptibility (EPSI). For this purpose, twelve extreme precipitation indices were selected from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices between 1950 and 2003. By considering only six extreme precipitation indices: R×1day, R×5day, SDII, R20, CWD and R95PTOT for the 10-year return period, between 1950 and 2003, the EPSI was developed to both annual data and meteorological season. The regionalization of extreme precipitation in Portugal were determined using a principal component analysis in T-mode. The results, show three spatial regions obtained from PCA. The three regions were analyzed separate. In the annual EPSI, the highest susceptibility areas are the mountainous regions in northern (e.g. Gerês, Peneda, Alvão, Marão and Montesinho) and central Portugal (e.g. Serra da Estrela), as well as in the Algarve (southern Portugal). Conversely, the lower susceptibility classes are in municipalities of the northeast, Alentejo and along the central-western coast. The results of EPSI show similar results in autumn and winter. In spring, however, the high susceptibility class increases in the Lisbon region and in the Sado Basin. In summer, there is an increase in susceptibility in the northeast, while susceptibility is low over much of Alentejo and Algarve, where precipitation is neglectful. This work presents a first attempt to implement this type of index for mainland Portugal. The first results are very promising, showing a consistent representation of the overall spatial distribution of extreme precipitation susceptibility. The combination of this information by municipalities can be of foremost relevance to civil protection and risk management.  相似文献   

Late Holocene glacial and periglacial evolution in the upper Orco Valley, northwestern Italian Alps     

Carlo Giraudi 《Quaternary Research》2009,71(1):1-8

The sediments present in some areas of the Orco Valley provide indications on climatic variations that occurred during the last 6000 years on the southern slopes of the Alps. In particular, distribution and ages of peat layers help define periods and extent of glacial fluctuation in the last 2200 years. Sampling of soils involved in periglacial processes provided a basis for development of a chronological framework of late Holocene environmental change. The data indicate a trend toward cooler climate in the second half of the Holocene. A strong relationship exists between phases of River Po flooding and expansion/retreat phases of the Swiss glaciers: major glacial advances were coeval with periods of intense flooding of the River Po, whereas the phases of glacial retreat coincided with periods of little flooding of the Po. Only in three cases do relationships between glacier activity and floods show weak correlations; two of the cases relate to the warmest periods in approximately the last 2200 years, while the third is the present period. Paleoclimatic evidence from the study region indicates the relatively warm Roman Period between about 2200 and 1900 cal yr BP appears to better represent modern conditions than does the Medieval Warm Period.  相似文献   

Gradient irregularity in the herbert gorge of Northeastern Australia     

Ellen E. Wohl 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1992,17(1):69-84

The seventy-kilometre-long Herbert Gorge of northeastern Australia preserves a record of past floods in slackwater deposits and palaeostage indicators. Step-backwater modelling of water-surface profiles indicates that discharges ranging from 11000 to 17000 m³s^?1 have occurred six times in the gorge during the last 900 years. These flood reconstructions provide insight into the role of extreme flows in shaping bedrock channel morphology. In particular, the hydraulics of extreme flows can be related to boulder transport, and to the location of large boulder bars. Large boulder bars occur throughout the Herbert Gorge, being best developed at loci of stream power minima along the inside of bends, at tributary junctions, and at obstructions in the channel caused by bedrock highs. Only the flows exceeding approximately 8000 m³ s^?1 are competent to transport the boulders which constitute the bars. In the straight channel reaches, the boulder accumulations and bedrock highs have a fairly regular spacing which appears to be independent of lithologic or structural controls. The bars provide an efficient means of energy dissipation, and they are interpreted as a result of the inherent high turbulence of flow in a steep channel. The regular spacing of the bars, and their correspondence with the hydraulics of large flows, suggest that the bars and associated bedrock highs may represent a self-regulating mechanism akin to the pool-riffle sequence of alluvial channels. It may therefore be appropriate to view bedrock channels as deformable on the timescale of extreme discharges.  相似文献   

全球变暖对长江洪水的可能影响及其前景预测     

施雅风  姜彤  王俊  张强  苏布达  秦年秀 《湖泊科学》2003,15(Z1):1-15

要长江流域近150a间发生的1870、1931、1935、1954与1998年特大洪水灾害损失严重;长江洪水是我国的心腹之患.1990年以来,长江大洪水高频发生,达6次.长江洪水的发生,除湖泊蓄洪功能减弱等因素外,与全球变暖有关.20世纪90年代为近千年中全球最暖的年代,水循环加快,长江中下游夏季降水量为近120a最多的十年,高出1961-1990平均值112mm;而降雨集中和大暴雨降水事件的增加是洪水增加的主要原因.区域气候模式模拟在CO₂倍增时,长江流域温度升高2.2℃,夏季降水增加10%-20%,气溶胶的增加可能使此值降低一些.考虑气候变暖可能促进潜在蒸发增加9%-15%的假定情景,计算在降水增加10%,蒸发增加9%条件下,最大洪峰流量在大通站将会达到8.4×10⁴ m³/s左右,己超过1998年洪峰流量;汉口站7.9×10⁴ m³/s,超过有记录以来所有的洪峰流量;而在宜昌站高达6.94×10⁴ m³/s,超过自有实测记录以来的除1896年和1981年以外所有的洪峰流量.假定情景的最高值出现在降水增加20%,蒸发增加15%时,大通站流量将达到9.45×10⁴ m³/s,超过该站近百年最大值,1954年的9.26×10⁴ m³/s;宜昌站将出现7.82×10⁴ m³/s流量,超过1882年以来所有实测记录值,但比1870年据洪痕推算的10.5×10⁴ m³/s仍有逊色.未来气候若继续变暖,降水量增加将给长江洪水防御带来巨大的压力.但上述估算是粗糙的,有一定的不确定性,需在以后的研究中进一步改进.  相似文献   

陇南伏期旱涝指数及预测模型   总被引：11，自引：1，他引：11       下载免费PDF全文

肖志强  尚学军  樊明  张燕  冯军  白建国 《气象》2001,27(1):35-38

从陇南气候规律及农业生产实际出发，制定出客观定量衡量陇南伏期旱涝特征的旱涝指数，并利用1967－1996年旱涝指数，用EOF对陇南伏期旱涝进行分片，分析其时空分布特征，建立各片伏期旱涝均生函数预测模型，通过应用，预报准确率有较大提高。  相似文献   

Flood hydrology and geomorphic effectiveness in the central Appalachians     

Andrew J. Miller 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1990,15(2):119-134

This paper compares hydrologic records and geomorphic effects of several historic floods in the central Appalachian region of the eastern United States. The most recent of these, occurring in November 1985, was the largest ever recorded in West Virginia, with peak discharges exceeding the estimated 500-year discharge at eight of eleven stations in the South Branch Potomac River and Cheat River basins. Geomorphic effects on valley floors included some of the most severe and widespread floodplain erosion ever documented and exceeded anything seen in previous floods, even though comparable or greater rainfall and unit discharge have been observed several times in the region over the past 50 years. Comparison of discharge-drainage area plots suggests that the intensity and spatial scale of the November 1985 flood were optimal for erosion of valley floors along the three forks of the South Branch Potomac River. However, when a larger geographic area is considered, rainfall totals and discharge-drainage area relationships are insufficient predictors of geomorphic effectiveness for valley floors at drainage areas of 250 to 2500 km². Unit stream power was calculated for the largest recorded flood discharge at 46 stations in the central Appalachians. Maximum values of unit stream power are developed in bedrock canyons, where the boundaries are resistant to erosion and the flow cross-section cannot adjust its width to accommodate extreme discharges. The largest value was 2570 W m^?2; record discharge at most stations was associated with unit stream power values less than 300 W m^?2, but more stations exceeded this value in the November 1985 flood than in the other floods that were analysed. Unit stream power at indirect discharge measurement sites near areas experiencing severe erosion in this and other central Appalachian floods generally exceeded 300 W m^?2; reach-average values of 200-500 W m^?2 were calculated for valleys where erosion damage was most widespread. Despite these general trends, unit stream power is not a reliable predictor of geomorphic change for individual sites. Improved understanding of flood impacts will require more detailed investigation of interactions between local site characteristics and patterns of flood flow over the valley floor.  相似文献