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国内外PMP/PMF的发展和实践 总被引：8，自引：3，他引：8
对20世纪80年代以来PMP／PMF在国内外的发展和实践情况作了简要的介绍和评论。内容包括PMP／PMF定义、估算方法、成果合理性检查和概率。PMP估算方法包括概化估算法、当地暴雨放大、暴雨移置、暴雨组合、推理模式和统计估算法。PMF估算着重介绍了由PMP转化为PMF的产流和汇流特点，以及目前在南非和法语非洲国家广泛应用的经验公式。 相似文献
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Suspended particulate matter (SPM) and colloidal matter (COM) in annual dry and wet deposition samples in urban Guangzhou were for the first time collected, and their trace metals were investigated by using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The deposition flux of SPM and of metal elements varied largely among the investigated seasons, and reached the maximum in spring. The correlation analysis indicated that significant correlations existed among some of the metal elements in the deposition samples. The enrichment factors (EF) of metals in COM in the deposition ranging from 79.66 to 130,000 were much higher than those of SPM ranging from 1.65 to 286.48, indicating the important role of COM. The factor analysis showed that emissions from street dust, non-ferrous metal production, and heavy fuel oil were major sources of the trace metals. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) model was used to quantitatively estimate anthropogenic source. 相似文献
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于2016年7月-2017年6月在武汉市典型居民区对大气中101种挥发性有机物（VOCs）进行了监测,以便研究武汉市典型居民区周边VOCs的组成特征和变化规律,并探讨了其主要来源.结果表明,武汉市空气中VOCs的体积分数为（46.24±24.57）×10-9,表现为烷烃>含氧有机物>烯烃>卤代烃>芳香烃.受交通排放影响烷烃的比例上午高于下午,1月机动车尾气为武汉市主要的VOCs排放源,夏季含氧类化合物浓度高于冬季,可能更多地受本地喷涂等溶剂使用行业和光化学反应生成的影响,5-9月表现出明显的生物源排放特征.利用正交矩阵因子分析（PMF）得到武汉市居民区大气VOCs主要有6个来源,分别为燃烧源、机动车尾气、工业排放、溶剂使用、汽油挥发和植物排放.其中,燃烧源、机动车尾气贡献比例最高,是该区域VOCs控制的重要排放源. 相似文献
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AbstractMixed-regime Andean basins present a complex scenario for flood analysis. In this study, we propose a methodology for incorporating orographic effects influenced by mountainous barriers in the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimation method in sparsely-gauged basins. The proposed methodology is applied to the Puclaro Reservoir basin in Chile, which is affected by the Andes. The PMP estimations were calculated by applying statistical and hydrometeorological approaches to the baseline (1960–1999) and climate change scenarios (2045–2065) determined from projections of the ECHAM5 general circulation model. Temperature projections for the 2040–2065 period show that there would be a rise in the catchment contributing area that would lead to an increase in the average liquid precipitation over the basin. Temperature projections would also affect the maximization factors in the calculation of the PMP, as precipitable water content, raising it to 126.6% and 62.5% under scenarios A2 and B1, respectively; the probable maximum flood (PMF) would increase to +175.5% under the A2 scenario. These projections would affect the safety of dam design and would be generalizable to zones with similar mixed hydrology and climate change projections. We propose that the methodology presented could be also applied to basins with similar characteristics.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Porporato 相似文献
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海湾是海洋和陆地相互作用和人类活动最强烈的区域,沉积物中重金属的含量和分布都受到人类活动的影响。为了探究钦州湾沉积物中重金属的含量水平、污染程度和可能来源,本研究分析了钦州湾表层沉积物中Cu、Pb、Zn、Cd、Cr、Hg和As的含量及空间分布,采用地质累计指数（Igeo）和潜在生态风险指数（PERI）定量分析了重金属的污染程度和生态风险,并利用自组织映射(SOM)和正定矩阵因子分解法(PMF)模型评估了重金属的可能来源。结果表明：钦州湾表层沉积物重金属中Zn的平均含量最高,Hg平均含量最低;除个别站位的Pb含量符合海洋沉积物质量第二类标准外,其他重金属含量均符合海洋沉积物质量第一类标准;Igeo结果表明钦州湾表层沉积物主要的污染元素为Pb、Hg和Cu;PERI结果表明Hg是钦州湾表层沉积物主要的生态风险元素。SOM和PMF模型结果表明钦州湾表层沉积物重金属主要受自然来源、农业活动、工业生产活动的共同影响,各来源的相对贡献率分别为39.65%、29.15%和31.20%。 相似文献
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为了解2021年南京市新冠疫情期间城市大气污染物浓度的变化和成因,利用南京大学SORPES站点2021年7月1日—2021年8月30日大气污染物在线监测数据,分析疫情前、中、后颗粒物及气态污染物的浓度变化,针对臭氧(O3)的关键前体物,挥发性有机物(Volatile Organic Compounds,VOCs)采用正定矩阵因子分解法模型(Positive Matrix Factorization,PMF)、拉格朗日粒子输送与扩散模型(Lagrangian Particle Distribution Model,LPDM)分析其污染来源。结果表明:疫情封闭期间,南京市PM2.5质量浓度较疫情前降低了40％～50％,组分中硝酸盐、有机物质量浓度降幅最为显著,分别下降了34.0％和16.5％。臭氧体积浓度不降反升,城中区域增幅最显著站点可达50％左右。其气态前体物氮氧化物(NOx)及VOCs浓度变化呈相反态势,分别较疫情前降低28％、升高49.6％。模型及卫星遥感结果表明,疫情期间南京市臭氧属于协同偏VOCs控制区。气团溯源结果显示,南京市受本地及周边区域传输的共同影响,疫情封闭期间省外上海方向、省内苏州-无锡-镇江-南通方向的气团贡献增大。PMF解析了南京市本地VOCs主要来源于机动车排放源、植物源、溶剂源、工业生产源以及油气挥发源,其中机动车源占比变幅最大,疫情封闭期间下降了15.1％,疫情后上升了4.3％。其次为油气挥发源、溶剂源,这两项污染源疫情封闭期间分别上升了11.2％、1.7％,疫情后则分别下降了4.8％、4.3％。 相似文献
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Probable maximum flood (PMF) event estimation has challenged the scientific community for many years. Although the concept of the PMF is often applied, there is no consensus on the methods that should be applied to estimate it. In PMF estimation, the spatio-temporal representation of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) as well as the choice of modelling approach is often not theoretically founded. Moreover, it is not clear how these choices influence PMF estimation itself. In this study, combinations of three different spatio-temporal PMP representations and three different modelling approaches are applied to determine the PMF of a mesoscale basin keeping the antecedent catchment conditions and the total precipitation amount constant. The nine resulting PMF estimations are used to evaluate each combination of methods. The results show that basic methods allow for a rough estimation of the PMF. In cases where a physically plausible and reliable estimation is required, sophisticated PMP and PMF estimation approaches are recommended.
EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Viglione 相似文献
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选用2003—2004年初PM2.5连续观测资料，统计分析了北京地区PM2.5的特征、PM2.5与PM10以及PM2.5与地面气象要素的相互关系。结果表明:四季中夏季PM2.5浓度最低，冬、春两季浓度较高。PM2.5与PM10比值平均为0.55，非采暖期两者比值为0.52，采暖期两者比值为0.62；夏季该比值主要分布在0.3~0.6之间，春、秋两季该比值分布在0.3~0.8之间，冬季采暖期该比值分布在0.4~0.9之间。PM2.5与PM10比值日变化与气象条件日变化、人们日常生活习惯密切相关，沙尘天气和交通运输高峰期扬起地面粗颗粒物会导致PM2.5在PM10中的比例下降，而冬季取暖以及夏季光化学反应则会引起PM2.5的比例升高。PM2.5的浓度与地面气象要素中本站气压、相对湿度和风速有很好的的相关性，与气温的相关性较差。SO42-，NO3-和NH4+为北京地区PM2.5中主要离子。PMF源解析方法确定了北京地区5类细粒子污染源，分别是:土壤尘、煤燃烧、交通运输、海洋气溶胶以及钢铁工业。 相似文献
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PMF和PCA/APCS模型对南京北郊大气VOCs源解析对比研究 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
利用PMF模型和PCA/APCS模型对南京北郊大气VOCs进行定性和定量的源解析,并对比了两种模型的结果。结果表明：PMF模型对不同VOCs种类的模拟效果差别较大,而PCA/APCS对不同VOCs种类的模拟效果相近;PMF模型解析的源个数多于PCA/APCS模型,两种模型结果的源性质方面存在很大相似性,但PCA/APCS模型未能区分汽油挥发和汽车尾气源;两种模型源解析出的植物排放源、工业生产源的贡献率较接近,而其他源的贡献率存在差异,PCA/APCS模型解析的溶剂使用源的贡献率高于PMF模型结果,PMF模型解析出的汽油挥发+汽车尾气源的贡献率高于PCA/APCS模型结果。 相似文献
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