中国24h台风路径预报难点及其大尺度环流分析   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

杨琼琼  吴立广 《气象科学》2015,35(4):389-397

主要分析了2005—2012年中国24 h台风路径预报误差较大的样本及其对应的大尺度环流特征。基于850 hPa风场的低通滤波等分析发现:去除占总数3.9%的预报误差最大样本后,平均预报误差可以减小8.5%。这些预报误差最大的样本中有近60%呈现为移向误差较小、移速较观测慢的特点。与之相对应的大尺度环境场可分为气旋性环流、弱背景场和副热带高压西侧3类。气旋性环流包含近3/4的样本,其中又有一半受季风涡旋的影响。平均移动速度分析表明,这些台风起报时刻前后,平均移速的突然增加是预报移速较慢的主要原因,这是中国台风24 h路径预报的主要难点之一。  相似文献   

Review of the Tropical Gyre in the Indian Ocean with Its Impact on Heat and Salt Transport and Regional Climate Modes     

Yan Du  Lianyi Zhang  Yuhong Zhang 《地球科学进展》2019,34(3):243-254

Due to the IO monsoon impact, the tropical IO circulation has significant seasonal variation, especially in the northern IO. However, in mean-state, a relatively closed current loop is established by eastward current along the equator and westward current south of equator, which is regarded as Tropical Gyre in the Indian Ocean. Based on this circulation system, relevant studies were reviewed. Its impact on heat and salt transports and regional climate changes were discussed.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of climate response to variations in freshwater hosing location     

Thomas Kleinen  Timothy J. Osborn  Keith R. Briffa 《Ocean Dynamics》2009,59(3):509-521

In a recent intercomparison of the response of general circulation models (GCMs) to high-latitude freshwater forcing (Stouffer et al., J Climate 19(8):1365–1387, 2006), a number of the GCMs investigated showed a localised warming response in the high-latitude North Atlantic, as opposed to the cooling that the other models showed. We investigated the causes for this warming by testing the sensitivity of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to variations in freshwater forcing location, and then analysing in detail the causes of the warming. By analysing results from experiments with HadCM3, we are able to show that the high-latitude warming is independent of the exact location of the additional freshwater in the North Atlantic or Arctic Ocean basin. Instead, the addition of freshwater changes the circulation in the sub-polar gyre, which leads to enhanced advection of warm, saline, sub-surface water into the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Sea despite the overall slowdown of the MOC. This sub-surface water is brought to the surface by convection, where it leads to a strong warming of the surface waters and the overlying atmosphere.  相似文献   

Large bio-geographical shifts in the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean: From the subpolar gyre, via plankton, to blue whiting and pilot whales     

H. Htún  M.R. Payne  G. Beaugrand  P.C. Reid  A.B. Sand  H. Drange  B. Hansen  J.A. Jacobsen  D. Bloch 《Progress in Oceanography》2009,80(3-4):149-162

Pronounced changes in fauna, extending from the English Channel in the south to the Barents Sea in the north-east and off Greenland in the north-west, have occurred in the late 1920s, the late 1960s and again in the late 1990s. We attribute these events to exchanges of subarctic and subtropical water masses in the north-eastern North Atlantic Ocean, associated with changes in the strength and extent of the subpolar gyre. These exchanges lead to variations in the influence exerted by the subarctic or Lusitanian biomes on the intermediate faunistic zone in the north-eastern Atlantic. This strong and persistent bottom-up bio-physical link is demonstrated using a numerical ocean general circulation model and data on four trophically connected levels in the food chain – phytoplankton, zooplankton, blue whiting, and pilot whales. The plankton data give a unique basin-scale depiction of these changes, and a long pilot whale record from the Faroe Islands offers an exceptional temporal perspective over three centuries. Recent advances in simulating the dynamics of the subpolar gyre suggests a potential for predicting the distribution of the main faunistic zones in the north-eastern Atlantic a few years into the future, which might facilitate a more rational management of the commercially important fisheries in this region.  相似文献   

1991年8月季风涡旋个例形成的模拟研究     

李箭  葛旭阳  施东雷 《热带气象学报》2020,36(1):72-84

季风涡旋对台风活动有重要的影响, 因此研究季风涡旋的形成机制有利于提高台风预报的准确性。此研究利用中尺度非静力数值模式WRF-ARW模拟1991年8月季风涡旋的生成过程, 并对其生成机制进行分析。模式结果表明, 此次季风涡旋个例是由一个中纬度气旋性低压发展而来。初期中纬度高层正位势涡度的强迫作用有利于对流层低层气旋性低压的发展和维持, 随后高层动力强迫作用减弱, 但中纬度气旋性低压在南移过程中其东南侧对流带逐渐与低纬地区的对流带合并, 使得对流潜热释放增强, 进而使低压在Gill响应的作用下不断加强并最终形成季风涡旋。同时, 涡旋的对流结构表现出明显的非对称性, 因而使其得以维持较大尺度。敏感性试验的结果表明对流层高层强迫对于初始低层扰动的发展至关重要, 而后期热带地区的潜热释放有利于季风涡旋的增强。   相似文献   

热带外太平洋通过海洋过程对热带太平洋的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

赵珊珊  杨修群  朱益民  容新尧 《海洋学报》2006,28(3):29-40

利用MOM2海洋环流模式分别研究了年际和年代际尺度上热带外太平洋通过海洋过程对热带太平洋的影响.利用1945~1993年COADS资料的表面通量强迫海洋模式,积分46 a作为模式控制试验.取热带外太平洋海表面强迫为气候值做敏感性试验.将控制试验结果减去敏感性结果就可以得到热带外太平洋通过海洋过程对热带太平洋的影响.结果表明,年际尺度上,主要是海洋波动过程起作用,但总的海洋过程的影响较小.年代际尺度上,主要是副热带环流输送起作用,其中包括平均环流输送的温度异常以及异常环流输送的平均温度,并且后者贡献相对较大.年际和年代际尺度上,热带太平洋的温度异常主要发生在密度跃层附近.研究发现热带外南太平洋对热带和热带外太平洋之间的水量交换有影响,而热带外北太平洋的影响较弱.  相似文献   

In situ and satellite observations of the eastward migration of the Western Alboran Sea Gyre     

M.M. Flexas  D. Gomis  S. Ruiz  A. Pascual  P. Len 《Progress in Oceanography》2006,70(2-4):486

During October 2003 an intensive oceanographic survey (BIOMEGA) was carried out in the Alboran Sea, coinciding with a migration event of the Western Alboran Sea Gyre (WAG). The observations gathered during that cruise constitute the first field evidence of a migrated stage of the WAG. In this work we present the main differences between the 3D hydrodynamic fields observed during BIOMEGA and those corresponding to a WAG located at its usual position. The migration of the gyre was followed by satellite (altimetry and sea surface temperature) imagery. The causes of the gyre migration are explored in terms of the quasi-geostrophic tendency equation, in particular of the dynamics governing scales larger than the Rossby radius of deformation. It is shown that the steady state gyre must be almost equivalent barotropic and that the key process to break down the stationarity would be a density advection at gyre scale. The mechanisms to explain the migration of the WAG proposed by previous authors are discussed in light of the explanation proposed in this work.  相似文献   

PDO的三维空间结构和时间演变特征   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

陈幸荣  王彰贵  巢纪平  蔡怡 《海洋学报》2011,33(6):19-28

利用再分析次表层海温资料和CCSM3模式的1870-1999年130 a模拟试验的结果,分析了北太平洋年代际变化(PDO)的三维空间结构和时间演变特征.结果表明,CCSM3模式较好的模拟了北太平洋年代际变化的主要特征,对再分析资料和模式结果的分析都表明从北太平洋表层至次表层的中层,年代际变化是非常显著的,PDO不仅仅局...  相似文献   

Subsurface Water Masses in the Central North Pacific Transition Region: The Repeat Section along the 18° Meridian     

Toshio Suga  Kazunori Motoki  Kimio Hanawa 《Journal of Oceanography》2003,59(4):435-444

A repeat hydrographic section has been maintained over two decades along the 180° meridian across the subarctic-subtropical transition region. The section is naturally divided into at least three distinct zones. In the Subarctic Zone north of 46°N, the permanent halocline dominates the density stratification, supporting a subsurface temperature minimum (STM). The Subarctic Frontal Zone (SFZ) between 42°–46°N is the region where the subarctic halocline outcrops. To the south is the Subtropical Zone, where the permanent thermocline dominates the density stratification, containing a pycnostad of North Pacific Central Mode Water (CMW). The STM water colder than 4°C in the Subarctic Zone is originated in the winter mixed layer of the Bering Sea. The temporal variation of its core temperature lags 12–16 months behind the variations of both the winter sea surface temperature (SST) and the summer STM temperature in the Bering Sea, suggesting that the thermal anomalies imposed on the STM water by wintertime air-sea interaction in the Bering Sea spread over the western subarctic gyre, reaching the 180° meridian within a year or so. The CMW in this section originates in the winter mixed layer near the northern edge of the Subtropical Zone between 160°E and 180°. The CMW properties changed abruptly from 1988 to 1989; its temperature and salinity increased and its potential density decreased. It is argued that these changes were caused by the climate regime shift in 1988/1989 characterized by weakening of the Aleutian Low and the westerlies and increase in the SST in the subarctic-subtropical transition region. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Observations of the Labrador Sea eddy field   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Jonathan M. Lilly  Peter B. RhinesFriedrich Schott  Kara LavenderJohn Lazier  Uwe SendEric D’Asaro 《Progress in Oceanography》2003,59(1):75-176

This paper is an observational study of small-scale coherent eddies in the Labrador Sea, a region of dense water formation thought to be of considerable importance to the North Atlantic overturning circulation. Numerical studies of deep convection emphasize coherent eddies as a mechanism for the lateral transport of heat, yet their small size has hindered observational progress. A large part of this paper is therefore devoted to developing new methods for identifying and describing coherent eddies in two observational platforms, current meter moorings and satellite altimetry. Details of the current and water mass structure of individual eddy events, as they are swept past by an advecting flow, can then be extracted from the mooring data. A transition is seen during mid-1997, with long-lived boundary current eddies dominating the central Labrador Sea year-round after this time, and convectively formed eddies similar to those seen in deep convection modeling studies apparent prior to this time. The TOPEX / Poseidon altimeter covers the Labrador Sea with a loose “net” of observations, through which coherent eddies can seem to appear and disappear. By concentrating on locating and describing anomalous events in individual altimeter tracks, a portrait of the spatial and temporal variability of the underlying eddy field can be constructed. The altimeter results reveal an annual “pulsation” of energy and of coherent eddies originating during the late fall at a particular location in the boundary current, pinpointing the time and place of the boundary current-type eddy formation. The interannual variability seen at the mooring is reproduced, but the mooring site is found to be within a localized region of greatly enhanced eddy activity. Notably lacking in both the annual cycle and interannual variability is a clear relationship between the eddies or eddy energy and the intensity of wintertime cooling. These eddy observations, as well as hydrographic evidence, suggest an active role for boundary current dynamics in shaping the energetics and water mass properties of the interior region.  相似文献