Seasonality and magnitude of floods in Switzerland under future climate change          下载免费PDF全文

N. Köplin  B. Schädler  D. Viviroli  R. Weingartner 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2567-2578

The flood seasonality of catchments in Switzerland is likely to change under climate change because of anticipated alterations of precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt. Information on this change is crucial for flood protection policies, for example, or regional flood frequency analysis. We analysed projected changes in mean annual and maximum floods of a 22‐year period for 189 catchments in Switzerland and two scenario periods in the 21st century based on an ensemble of climate scenarios. The flood seasonality was analysed with directional statistics that allow assessing both changes in the mean date a flood occurs as well as changes in the strength of the seasonality. We found that the simulated change in flood seasonality is a function of the change in flow regime type. If snow accumulation and melt is important in a catchment during the control period, then the anticipated change in flood seasonality is most pronounced. Decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios additionally affects the flood seasonality (mean date of flood occurrence) and leads to a decreasing strength of seasonality, that is a higher temporal variability in most cases. The magnitudes of mean annual floods and more clearly of maximum floods (in a 22‐year period) are expected to increase in the future because of changes in flood‐generating processes and scaled extreme precipitation. Southern alpine catchments show a different signal, though: the simulated mean annual floods decrease in the far future, that is at the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Flood seasonality across Scandinavia—Evidence of a shifting hydrograph?          下载免费PDF全文

Bettina Matti  Helen E. Dahlke  Bastien Dieppois  Damian M. Lawler  Steve W. Lyon 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4354-4370

Fluvial flood events have substantial impacts on humans, both socially and economically, as well as on ecosystems (e.g., hydroecology and pollutant transport). Concurrent with climate change, the seasonality of flooding in cold environments is expected to shift from a snowmelt‐dominated to a rainfall‐dominated flow regime. This would have profound impacts on water management strategies, that is, flood risk mitigation, drinking water supply, and hydro power. In addition, cold climate hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with catchment properties and large‐scale climate fluctuations making the manifestation of changes difficult to detect and predict. Understanding a possible change in flood seasonality and defining related key drivers therefore is essential to mitigate risk and to keep management strategies viable under a changing climate. This study explores changes in flood seasonality across near‐natural catchments in Scandinavia using circular statistics and trend tests. Results indicate strong seasonality in flooding for snowmelt‐dominated catchments with a single peak occurring in spring and early summer (March through June), whereas flood peaks are more equally distributed throughout the year for catchments located close to the Atlantic coast and in the south of the study area. Flood seasonality has changed over the past century seen as decreasing trends in summer maximum daily flows and increasing winter and spring maximum daily flows with 5–35% of the catchments showing significant changes at the 5% significance level. Seasonal mean daily flows corroborate those findings with higher percentages (5–60%) of the catchments showing statistically significant changes. Alterations in annual flood occurrence also point towards a shift in flow regime from snowmelt‐dominated to rainfall‐dominated with consistent changes towards earlier timing of the flood peak (significant for 25% of the catchments). Regionally consistent patterns suggest a first‐order climate control as well as a local second‐order catchment control, which causes inter‐seasonal variability in the streamflow response.  相似文献   

Flooding and geomorphic impacts in a mountain torrent: Raise Beck,central Lake District,England     

R. M. Johnson  J. Warburton 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2002,27(9):945-969

Raise Beck is a mountain torrent located in the central Lake District fells, northern England (drainage area of 1·27 km²). The torrent shows evidence of several major flood events, the most recent of which was in January 1995. This event caused a major channel avulsion at the fan apex diverting the main flood flow to the south, blocking the A591 trunk road and causing local flooding. The meteorological conditions associated with this event are described using local rainfall records and climatic data. Records show 164 mm of rainfall in the 24 hours preceding the flood. The peak flood discharge is reconstructed using palaeohydrological and rainfall–runoff methods, which provide discharge values of 27–74 m³ s^?1, and 4–6 m³ s^?1, respectively. The flood transported boulders with b‐axes up to 1400 mm. These results raise some important general questions about flood estimation in steep mountain catchments. The geomorphological impact of the event is evaluated by comparing aerial photographs from before and after the flood, along with direct field observations. Over the historical timescale the impact and occurrence of flooding is investigated using lichenometry, long‐term rainfall data, and documentary records. Two major historical floods events are identified in the middle of the nineteenth century. The deposits of the recent and historical flood events dominate the sedimentological evidence of flooding at Raise Beck, therefore the catchment is sensitive to high magnitude, low frequency events. Following the 1995 flood much of the lower catchment was channelized using rip‐rap bank protection, re‐establishing flow north towards Thirlmere. The likely success of this management strategy in containing future floods is considered, based on an analysis of channel capacities. It is concluded that the channelization scheme is only a short‐term solution, which would fail to contain the discharge of an event equivalent to the January 1995 flood. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Investigating the application of climate models in flood projection across the UK          下载免费PDF全文

Andrew Smith  Paul Bates  Jim Freer  Fredrik Wetterhall 《水文研究》2014,28(5):2810-2823

Regional climate models (RCMs) have emerged as the preferred tool in hydrological impact assessment at the catchment scale. The direct application of RCM precipitation output is still not recommended; instead, a number of alternative methods have been proposed. One method that has been used is the change factor methodology, which typically uses changes to monthly mean or seasonal precipitation totals to develop change scenarios. However, such simplistic approaches are subject to significant caveats. In this paper, 18 RCMs covering the UK from the ENSEMBLES and UKCP09 projects are analysed across different catchments. The ensembles' ability in capturing monthly total and extreme precipitation is outlined to explore how the ability to make confident statements about future flood risk varies between different catchments. The suitability of applying simplistic change factor approaches in flood impact studies is also explored. We found that RCM ensembles do have some skill in simulating observed monthly precipitation; however, seasonal patterns of bias were evident across each of the catchments. Moreover, even apparently good simulations of extreme rainfall can mis‐estimate the magnitude of flood‐generating rainfall events in ways that would significantly affect flood risk management. For future changes in monthly mean precipitation, we observe the clear ‘drier summers/wetter winters’ signal used to develop current UK policy, but when we look instead at flood‐generating rainfall, this seasonal signal is less clear and greater increases are projected. Furthermore, the confidence associated with future projections varies from catchment to catchment and season to season as a result of the varying ability of the RCM ensembles, and in some cases, future flood risk projections using RCM outputs may be highly problematic. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Inter‐comparison of hydro‐climatic regimes across northern catchments: synchronicity,resistance and resilience     

Sean K. Carey  Doerthe Tetzlaff  Jan Seibert  Chris Soulsby  Jim Buttle  Hjalmar Laudon  Jeff McDonnell  Kevin McGuire  Daniel Caissie  Jamie Shanley  Mike Kennedy  Kevin Devito  John W. Pomeroy 《水文研究》2010,24(24):3591-3602

The higher mid‐latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are particularly sensitive to climate change as small differences in temperature determine frozen ground status, precipitation phase, and the magnitude and timing of snow accumulation and melt. An international inter‐catchment comparison program, North‐Watch, seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of northern catchments to climate change by examining their hydrological and biogeochemical responses. The catchments are located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Mharcaidh, Girnock and Strontian), the United States (Sleepers River, Hubbard Brook and HJ Andrews) and Canada (Catamaran, Dorset and Wolf Creek). This briefing presents the initial stage of the North‐Watch program, which focuses on how these catchments collect, store and release water and identify ‘types’ of hydro‐climatic catchment response. At most sites, a 10‐year data of daily precipitation, discharge and temperature were compiled and evaporation and storage were calculated. Inter‐annual and seasonal patterns of hydrological processes were assessed via normalized fluxes and standard flow metrics. At the annual‐scale, relations between temperature, precipitation and discharge were compared, highlighting the role of seasonality, wetness and snow/frozen ground. The seasonal pattern and synchronicity of fluxes at the monthly scale provided insight into system memory and the role of storage. We identified types of catchments that rapidly translate precipitation into runoff and others that more readily store water for delayed release. Synchronicity and variance of rainfall–runoff patterns were characterized by the coefficient of variation (cv) of monthly fluxes and correlation coefficients. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed clustering among like catchments in terms of functioning, largely controlled by two components that (i) reflect temperature and precipitation gradients and the correlation of monthly precipitation and discharge and (ii) the seasonality of precipitation and storage. By advancing the ecological concepts of resistance and resilience for catchment functioning, results provided a conceptual framework for understanding susceptibility to hydrological change across northern catchments. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Coupled modeling of rainfall-induced floods and sediment transport at the catchment scale     

《国际泥沙研究》2022,37(6):715-728

Rainfall-induced floods may trigger intense sediment transport on erodible catchments, especially on the Loess Plateau in China, which in turn modifies the floods. However, the role of sediment transport in modifying floods has to date remained poorly understood. Concurrently, traditional hydrodynamic models for rainfall-induced floods typically ignore sediment transport, which may lead to inaccurate results for highly erodible catchments. Here, a two-dimensional (2D) coupled shallow water hydro-sediment-morphodynamic (SHSM) model, based on the Finite Volume Method on unstructured meshes and parallel computing, is proposed and applied to simulate rainfall-induced floods in the Zhidan catchment on the Loess Plateau, Shaanxi Province, China. For six historical floods of return periods up to 2 years, the numerical results compare well with observations of discharge hydrographs at the catchment outlet. The computed runoff-sediment yield relation is quantitatively reasonable as compared with other catchments under similar geographical conditions. It is revealed that neglecting sediment transport leads to underestimation of peak discharge of the flood by 14%–45%, whilst its effect on the timing of the peak discharge varies for different flood events. For 18 design floods with return periods of 10–500 years, sediment transport may lead to higher peak discharge by around 9%–15%. The temporal pattern of concentrated rainfall in a short period may lead to a larger exponent value of the power function for the runoff-sediment yield relation. The current finding leads us to propose that incorporating sediment transport in rainfall-induced flood modeling is warranted. The SHSM model is applicable to flood and sediment modeling at the catchment scale in support of risk management and water and soil management.  相似文献   

River flood seasonality in the Northeast United States: Characterization and trends     

Mathias J. Collins 《水文研究》2019,33(5):687-698

The New England and Mid‐Atlantic regions of the Northeast United States have experienced climate‐induced increases in both the magnitude and frequency of floods. However, a detailed understanding of flood seasonality across these regions, and how flood seasonality may have changed over the instrumental record, has not been established. The annual timing of river floods reflects the flood‐generating mechanisms operating in a basin, and many aquatic and riparian organisms are adapted to flood seasonality, as are human uses of river channels and flood plains. Changes in flood seasonality may indicate changes in flood‐generating mechanisms, and their interactions, with important implications for habitats, flood plain infrastructure, and human communities. I applied a probabilistic method for identifying flood seasons at a monthly resolution for 90 Northeast U.S. watersheds with natural, or near‐natural, flood‐generating conditions. Historical trends in flood seasonality were also investigated. Analyses were based on peaks‐over‐threshold flood records that have, on average, 85 years of data and three peaks per year—thus providing more information about flood seasonality than annual maximums. The results show rich detail about annual flood timing across the region with each site having a unique pattern of monthly flood occurrence. However, a much smaller number of dominant seasonal patterns emerged when contiguous flood‐rich months were classified into commonly recognized seasons (e.g., Mar–May, spring). The dominant seasonal patterns identified by manual classification were corroborated by unsupervised classification methods (i.e., cluster analyses). Trend analyses indicated that the annual timing of flood‐rich seasons has generally not shifted over the period of record, but 65 sites with data from 1941 to 2013 revealed increased numbers of June–October floods—a trend driving previously documented increases in Northeast U.S. flood counts per year. These months have been historically flood‐poor at the sites examined, so warm‐season flood potential has increased with possible implications for aquatic and riparian organisms.  相似文献   

Analysis of hydrological seasonality across northern catchments using monthly precipitation–runoff polygon metrics     

Genevieve Ali  Doerthe Tetzlaff  Laura Kruitbos  Chris Soulsby  Sean Carey  Jeff McDonnell 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):56-72

Abstract

Seasonality is an important hydrological signature for catchment comparison. Here, the relevance of monthly precipitation–runoff polygons (defined as scatter points of 12 monthly average precipitation–runoff value pairs connected in the chronological monthly sequence) for characterizing seasonality patterns was investigated to describe the hydrological behaviour of 10 catchments spanning a climatic gradient across the northern temperate region. Specifically, the research objectives were to: (a) discuss the extent to which monthly precipitation–runoff polygons can be used to infer active hydrological processes in contrasting catchments; (b) test the ability of quantitative metrics describing the shape, orientation and surface area of monthly precipitation–runoff polygons to discriminate between different seasonality patterns; and (c) examine the value of precipitation–runoff polygons as a basis for catchment grouping and comparison. This study showed that some polygon metrics were as effective as monthly average runoff coefficients for illustrating differences between the 10 catchments. The use of precipitation–runoff polygons was especially helpful to look at the dynamics prevailing in specific months and better assess the coupling between precipitation and runoff and their relative degree of seasonality. This polygon methodology, linked with a range of quantitative metrics, could therefore provide a new simple tool for understanding and comparing seasonality among catchments.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Heal

Citation Ali, G., Tetzlaff, D., Kruitbos, L., Soulsby, C., Carey, S., McDonnell, J., Buttle, J., Laudon, H., Seibert, J., McGuire, K., and Shanley, J., 2013. Analysis of hydrological seasonality across northern catchments using monthly precipitation–runoff polygon metrics. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 56–72.  相似文献   

Highly conservative behaviour of bed sediment‐associated metals following extreme flooding     

Rachel R. Hurley  Jamie C. Woodward  James J. Rothwell 《水文研究》2019,33(8):1204-1217

On December 26, 2015 (Boxing Day), an exceptional flood event occurred in the Irwell catchment, United Kingdom, when the neighbouring Mersey catchment experienced a much more typical winter run‐off event. This provided an opportunity to examine the influence of high‐magnitude hydrological processes on the behaviour of fine‐grained metal‐contaminated bed sediments. Forty sites across the two catchments were sampled for channel bed fine sediment storage and sediment‐associated metal(loid) concentrations prior to, and following, the flooding. Sediments were analysed for total As, Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn and then subjected to a five‐step sequential extraction procedure. Despite a significant reorganisation of fine‐grained (<63 μm) sediment storage, metal(loid) concentrations demonstrated markedly conservative behaviour with no significant difference observed between pre‐flooding and post‐flooding values across both catchments. Estimates of the channel bed storage of sediment‐associated metal(loid)s also showed minimal change as a result of the flooding. The metal partitioning data reveal only minor changes in the mobility of bed sediment‐associated metal(loid)s, indicating that such flood events do not increase the availability of sorbed contaminants in these catchments. Post‐flooding bed sediment metal(loid) loadings remain high, indicating persistent and long‐lasting sources of contamination within the Irwell and upper Mersey fluvial network.  相似文献   

Comparison of scenario‐neutral approaches for estimation of climate change impacts on flood characteristics     

Luise Keller  Ole Rssler  Olivia Martius  Rolf Weingartner 《水文研究》2019,33(4):535-550

Scenario‐neutral assessments of climate change impact on floods analyse the sensitivity of a catchment to a range of changes in selected meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation. The key challenges of the approach are the choice of the meteorological variables and statistics thereof and how to generate time series representing altered climatologies of the selected variables. Different methods have been proposed to achieve this, and it remains unclear if and to which extent they result in comparable flood change projections. Here, we compare projections of annual maximum floods (AMFs) derived from three different scenario‐neutral methods for a prealpine study catchment. The methods chosen use different types of meteorological data, namely, observations, regional climate model output, and weather generator data. The different time series account for projected changes in the seasonality of temperature and precipitation, in the occurrence statistics of precipitation, and of daily precipitation extremes. Resulting change in mean AMF peak magnitudes and volumes differs in sign between the methods (range of ?6% to +7% for flood peak magnitudes and ?11% to +14% for flood volumes). Moreover, variability of projected peak magnitudes and flood volumes depends on method with one approach leading to a generally larger spread. The differences between the methods vary depending on whether peak magnitudes or flood volumes are considered and different relationships between peak magnitude and volume change result. These findings can be linked to differing flood regime changes among the three approaches. The study highlights that considering selected aspects of climate change only when performing scenario‐neutral studies may lead to differing representations of flood generating processes by the approaches and thus different quantifications of flood change. As each method comes with its own strengths and weaknesses, it is recommended to combine several scenario‐neutral approaches to obtain more robust results.  相似文献   

The relative role of soil type and tree cover on water storage and transmission in northern headwater catchments          下载免费PDF全文

Josie Geris  Doerthe Tetzlaff  Jeffrey McDonnell  Chris Soulsby 《水文研究》2015,29(7):1844-1860

Soil water storage and stable isotopes dynamics were investigated in dominant soil–vegetation assemblages of a wet northern headwater catchment (3.2 km²) with limited seasonality in precipitation. We determined the relative influence of soil and vegetation cover on storage and transmission processes. Forested and non‐forested sites were compared, on poorly drained histosols in riparian zones and freely draining podzols on steeper hillslopes. Results showed that soil properties exert a much stronger influence than vegetation on water storage dynamics and fluxes, both at the plot and catchment scale. This is mainly linked to the overall energy‐limited climate, restricting evaporation, in conjunction with high soil water storage capacities. Threshold behaviour in runoff responses at the catchment scale was associated with differences in soil water storage and transmission dynamics of different hydropedological units. Linear input–output relationships occurred when runoff was generated predominantly from the permanently wet riparian histosols, which show only small dynamic storage changes. In contrast, nonlinear runoff generation was related to transient periods of high soil wetness on the hillslopes. During drier conditions, more marked differences in soil water dynamics related to vegetation properties emerged, in terms of evaporation and impacts on temporarily increasing dynamic storage potential. Overall, our results suggest that soil type and their influence on runoff generation are dominant over vegetation effects in wet, northern headwater catchments with low seasonality in precipitation. Potential increase of subsurface storage by tree cover (e.g. for flood management) will therefore be spatially distributed throughout the landscape and limited to rare and extreme dry conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Dynamics of suspended sediment transport and yield in a large agricultural catchment,southwest France     

Chantha Oeurng  Sabine Sauvage  José‐Miguel Sánchez‐Pérez 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2010,35(11):1289-1301

The dynamics of suspended sediment transport were monitored continuously in a large agricultural catchment in southwest France from January 2007 to March 2009. The objective of this paper is to analyse the temporal variability in suspended sediment transport and yield in that catchment. Analyses were also undertaken to assess the relationships between precipitation, discharge and suspended sediment transport, and to interpret sediment delivery processes using suspended sediment‐discharge hysteresis patterns. During the study period, we analysed 17 flood events, with high resolution suspended sediment data derived from continuous turbidity and automatic sampling. The results revealed strong seasonal, annual and inter‐annual variability in suspended sediment transport. Sediment was strongly transported during spring, when frequent flood events of high magnitude and intensity occurred. Annual sediment transport in 2007 yielded 16 614 tonnes, representing 15 t km^?2 (85% of annual load transport during floods for 16% of annual duration), while the 2008 sediment yield was 77 960 tonnes, representing 70 t km^?2 (95% of annual load transport during floods for 20% of annual duration). Analysis of the relationships between precipitation, discharge and suspended sediment transport showed that there were significant correlations between total precipitation, peak discharge, total water yield, flood intensity and sediment variables during the flood events, but no relationship with antecedent conditions. Flood events were classified in relation to suspended sediment concentration (SSC)–discharge hysteretic loops, complemented with temporal dynamics of SSC–discharge ranges during rising and falling flow. The hysteretic shapes obtained for all flood events reflected the distribution of probable sediment sources throughout the catchment. Regarding the sediment transport during all flood events, clockwise hysteretic loops represented 68% from river deposited sediments and nearby source areas, anticlockwise 29% from distant source areas, and simultaneity of SSC and discharge 3%. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The chronology and the hydrometeorology of catastrophic floods on Dartmoor,South West England          下载免费PDF全文

S. A. Foulds  M. G. Macklin  P. A. Brewer 《水文研究》2014,28(7):3067-3087

Extreme floods are the most widespread and often the most fatal type of natural hazard experienced in Europe, particularly in upland and mountainous areas. These ‘flash flood’ type events are particularly dangerous because extreme rainfall totals in a short space of time can lead to very high flow velocities and little or no time for flood warning. Given the danger posed by extreme floods, there are concerns that catastrophic hydrometeorological events could become more frequent in a warming world. However, analysis of longer term flood frequency is often limited by the use of short instrumental flow records (last 30–40 years) that do not adequately cover alternating flood‐rich and flood‐poor periods over the last 2 to 3 centuries. In contrast, this research extends the upland flood series of South West England (Dartmoor) back to ca AD 1800 using lichenometry. Results show that the period 1820 to mid‐1940s was characterized by widespread flooding, with particularly large and frequent events in the mid‐to‐late 19th and early 20th centuries. Since ca 1850 to 1900, there has been a general decline in flood magnitude that was particularly marked after the 1930s/mid‐1940s. Local meteorological records show that: (1) historical flood‐rich periods on Dartmoor were associated with high annual, seasonal and daily rainfall totals in the last quarter of the 19th century and between 1910 and 1946, related to sub‐decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and receipt of cyclonic and southerly weather types over the southwest peninsula; and (2) the incidence of heavy daily rainfall declined notably after 1946, similar to sedimentary archives of flooding. The peak period of flooding on Dartmoor predates the beginning of gauged flow records, which has practical implications for understanding and managing flood risk on rivers that drain Dartmoor. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Dependence between flood peaks and volumes: a case study on climate and hydrological controls     

L. Gaál  J. Szolgay  S. Kohnová  K. Hlavčová  J. Parajka  A. Viglione 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):968-984

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to understand the causal factors controlling the relationship between flood peaks and volumes in a regional context. A case study is performed based on 330 catchments in Austria ranging from 6 to 500 km² in size. Maximum annual flood discharges are compared with the associated flood volumes, and the consistency of the peak–volume relationship is quantified by the Spearman rank correlation coefficient. The results indicate that climate-related factors are more important than catchment-related factors in controlling the consistency. Spearman rank correlation coefficients typically range from about 0.2 in the high alpine catchments to about 0.8 in the lowlands. The weak dependence in the high alpine catchments is due to the mix of flood types, including long-duration snowmelt, synoptic floods and flash floods. In the lowlands, the flood durations vary less in a given catchment which is related to the filtering of the distribution of all storms by the catchment response time to produce the distribution of flood producing storms.