共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
三种数学模型在海洋经济预测中的应用 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
乔俊果 《广东海洋大学学报》2008,28(2):16-19
根据可得的海洋经济统计数据,采用三种数学模型对2007年至2010年中国主要海洋产业的产值进行了预测,通过对历史数据拟合的比较,认为ARIMA模型拟合度较差,三次指数平滑法的拟合精度居中,灰色系统拟合误差最小。 相似文献
2.
用灰色关联和灰色预测的方法，对我国沿海省市海洋渔业人力资源的结构和现状进行了分析，并对2000～2005年的人力资源发展状况进行了预测。结果认为，对海洋渔业劳动力影响最大的因素是海洋捕捞专业的劳动力，其次是海洋兼业劳动力，再次是海洋养殖和后勤专业的劳动力，这一人力资源的组成结构对可持续渔业的发展要求不尽合理。通过分别建立灰色模型GM（1，1），预测到2000～2005年从事海洋渔业的劳动力人数将达到291.9～343.8万人，海洋捕捞的劳动力人数为128.5～149.2万人，海洋养殖的劳动力人数为54.3～77.9万人，海洋后勤的劳动力人数为29.1～35.4万人，海洋兼业的劳动力人数为81.3～87.9万人。 相似文献
3.
1 INTRODUCTION In marine waters, water temperature and nutrient Si control the temporal and spatial variation of the phytoplankton growth (Yang et al., 2006). The effect of nutrient Si and water temperature on the mecha- nism of phytoplankton growth has p… 相似文献
4.
An oil spill forecast system for of fshore China was developed based on Visual C++. The oil spill forecast system includes an ocean environmental forecast model and an oil spill model. The ocean environmental forecast model was designed to include timesaving methods, and comprised a parametrical wind wave forecast model and a sea surface current forecast model. The oil spill model was based on the "particle method" and fulfi lls the prediction of oil particle behavior by considering the drifting, evaporation and emulsifi cation processes. A specifi c database was embedded into the oil spill forecast system, which contained fundamental information, such as the properties of oil, reserve of emergency equipment and distribution of marine petroleum platform. The oil spill forecast system was successfully applied as part of an oil spill emergency exercise, and provides an operational service in the Research and Development Center for Off shore Oil Safety and Environmental Technology. 相似文献
5.
【目的】研究提高船舶主机燃料的综合利用率。【方法】结合MAN 6S50ME型船舶柴油机的余热能量特性和循环热力过程特点,分别建立基本循环、缸套水预热循环和回热循环等三种船舶余热利用有机朗肯循环系统模型,对三种余热利用系统的热力性能与经济性能进行计算和分析。【结果与结论】在三种循环系统中,缸套水预热循环的综合性能更具优势,在循环压力为2000 kPa时,系统的综合性能达到最优,循环净功为555.35 kW,热效率可达18.27%,循环发电净收益提高39.64%。研究结果可为船舶柴油机余热利用系统的设计和优化提供一定的理论指导。 相似文献
6.
中新统海相烃源岩是中国近海莺歌海盆地主要油气供给层段，也是我国新生代海相烃源岩的典型代表。综合利用地质、地球化学和古生物等资料，在烃源岩有机地球化学特征分析的基础上，探讨了莺歌海盆地中新统海相烃源岩发育的主控因素，并建立了相应的形成模式。结果表明，莺歌海盆地发育中等-好级别的中新统海相烃源岩，并具有较强的横向与纵向非均质性；中新统海相烃源岩受古气候、古生产力、水介质条件、沉积速率及海平面变化等因素的综合影响，发育以莺东斜坡带梅山组、三亚组为代表的海相陆源型和以东方区、乐东区梅山组为代表的海相内源型2种模式，其中以海相内源型烃源岩生烃条件最为优越。 相似文献
7.
Desertification has been notably expanding in China in the recent decade, especially in North China where dust/sand storm (DSS) frequently assaulted local communities. Analyses in marine ecology found that the earth ecosystem could be able to complement nutrient silicon for keeping sustain- able development of marine ecosystem, and decreasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere; as a result, the area of desertification would be enlarged. Modern human being activities have resulted in constant changes in the amount of silicon transport from land into sea, leading to oversupply of nitrogen and phosphorus but silicon in seawater. The proportion of nitrogen, phosphorus and silicon was seriously im- balanced and the limitation of silicon for phytoplankton growth has become more serious. The silicon de- ficiency has damaged the marine ecosystem in coastal regions and slowed down the carbon sedimentation in the atmosphere of the world. The authors believe that the continual discharge of CO2 into the atmos- phere is the cause for the global warming including marine water temperature rise. Consequently, the earth ecosystem would have to trigger its complementary action to resume to the silicon balance by algae bloom in seawater for reducing air and water temperatures. In order to complement nutrient silicon into the sea, the ecosystem would transport silicon via the atmosphere; therefore, the desertification in the in- ner land is a natural reaction. As marine phytoplankton booming can reduce the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and further ease the green-house effect, during this process, a large amount of silicon are de- manded by the ecosystem, which human being are unable to stop desertification from happening but slow down the progress and ease the risk. Therefore, as an important role in earth ecosystem, people should reduce the CO2 discharge into the atmosphere first; then, the normal function of river transporting silicon must be restored. In this way, the CO2 in the atmosphere can be kept in balance, the global warming slowed down, marine ecosystem development sustained, the drought in inner land eased, and the desert gradually under-controlled. 相似文献
8.
Chinese summer extreme rainfall often brings huge economic losses, so the prediction of summer extreme rainfall is necessary. This study focuses on the predictability of the leading mode of Chinese summer extreme rainfall from empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis. The predictors used in this study are Arctic sea ice concentration(ASIC) and regional sea surface temperature(SST) in selected optimal time periods. The most important role that Arctic sea ice(ASI) plays in the appearance of EOF1 may be strengthening the high pressure over North China, thereby preventing water vapor from going north. The contribution of SST is mainly at low latitudes and characterized by a significant cyclone anomaly over South China. The forecast models using predictor ASIC(PA), SST(PS), and the two together(PAS) are established by using data from 1980 to 2004. An independent forecast is made for the last 11 years(2005-2015). The correlation coefficient(COR) skills between the observed and cross-validation reforecast principal components(PC) of the PA, PS, and PAS models are 0.47, 0.66, and 0.76, respectively. These values indicate that SST is a major cause of Chinese summer extreme rainfall during 1980-2004. The COR skill of the PA model during the independent forecast period of 2004-2015 is 0.7, which is significantly higher than those of the PS and PAS models. Thus, the main factor influencing Chinese summer extreme rainfall in recent years has changed from low latitudes to high latitudes. The impact of ASI on Chinese summer extreme rainfall is becoming increasingly significant. 相似文献
9.
关于地震前兆的判据问题 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
邱泽华 《大地测量与地球动力学》2010,30(Z2)
地震前兆是地震预报的基础,这个基础是由一些个案构成的.应该把地震前兆研究放在地震预报研究之前.对地震前兆的识别需要判据.不能把权威学者的只言片语或者流行的假说当作判别地震前兆的最终凭据,而且目前不具备进行地震前兆统计的基本条件.综合人们以往的认识,识别地震前兆异常有3个自然判据:1)有正常背景;2)非干扰影响;3)与地震相关.其中,与地震相关是核心.可靠的地震前兆判定需要精确的观测资料.对地震前兆判据的研究对制定地震研究规划和观测规范都有指导作用. 相似文献
10.
The upper Huanghe(Yellow) River basin is situated in the northeast of the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet)Plateau of China.The melt-water from the snow-cover is main water supply for the rivers in the region during springtime and other arid regions of the northwestern China, and the hydrological conditions of the rivers are directly controlled by the snowmelt water in spring .So snowmelt runoff forecast has importance for hydropower,flood prevention and water resources utilize-tion.The application of remote sensing and Geographic Information System(GIS) techniques in snow cover monitoring and snowmelt runoff calculation in the upper Huanghe River basin are introduced amply in this paper.The key parame-ter-snow cover area can be computed by satellite images from multi-platform,multi-templral and multi-spectral.A clus-ter of snow-cover data can be yielded by means of the classification filter method.Meanwhile GIS will provide relevant information for obtaining the parameters and also for zoning .According to the typical samples extracting snow covered moun-tained in detail also.The runoff snowmelt models based on the snow-cover data from NOAA images and observation data of runoff,precipitation and air temperature have been satisfactorily used for predicting the inflow to the Longyangxia Reser-voir,which is located at lower end of snow cover region and is one of the largest reservoirs on the upper Huanghe River, during late March to early June.The result shows that remote sensing techniques combined with the ground meteorological and hydrological observation is of great potential in snowmelt runoff forecasting for a large river basin.With the develop-ment of remote sensing technique and the progress of the interpretation method,the forecast accuracy of snowmelt runoff will be improved in the near future .Large scale extent and few stations are two objective reality situations in Chian,so they should be considered in simulation and forecast.Apart from dividing ,the derivation of snow cover area from satellite images would decide the results of calculating runoff.Field investigation for selection of the learning samples of different snow patterns is basis for the classification. 相似文献
11.
Lei Xing Huaishan Liu Xilai Zheng Xueqin Liu Jin Zhang Linfei Wang Zhihui Zou Yiming Xu 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2016,15(5):815-824
Air guns are important sources for marine seismic exploration. Far-field wavelet of air gun arrays, as a necessary parameter for pre-stack processing and source models, plays an important role during marine seismic data processing and interpretation. When an air gun fires, it generates a series of air bubbles. Similar to onshore seismic exploration, the water forms a plastic fluid near the bubble; the farther the air gun is located from the measurement, the more steady and more accurately represented the wavelet will be. In practice, hydrophones should be placed more than 100 m from the air gun; however, traditional seismic cables cannot meet this requirement. On the other hand, vertical cables provide a viable solution to this problem. This study uses a vertical cable to receive wavelets from 38 air guns and data are collected offshore Southeast Qiong, where the water depth is over 1000 m. In this study, the wavelets measured using this technique coincide very well with the simulated wavelets and can therefore represent the real shape of the wavelets. This experiment fills a technology gap in China. 相似文献
12.
ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＰｈｏｓｐｈｏｒｕｓｉｓａｋｅｙｎｕｔｒｉｔｉｖｅｅｌｅｍｅｎｔｆｏｒｔｈｅｇｒｏｗｔｈｏｆｍａｒｉｎｅｐｈｙｔｏｐｌａｎｋｔｏｎ .Ｒｅｃｅｎｔｌｙ ,ｂｅ ｃａｕｓｅｏｆｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌｐｏｌｌｕｔｉｏｎ ,ｔｈｅｅｕｔｒｏｐｈｉｃａｔｉｏｎｐｒｏｂｌｅｍｓｉｎｃｏａｓｔａｌａｎｄｏｃｅａｎｉｃｗａｔｅｒｓｈａｖｅｂｅ ｃｏｍｅｍｏｒｅａｎｄｍｏｒｅｓｅｒｉｏｕｓ.Ｔｈｅｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌｒｅｓｐｏｎｓｅｉｎｔｈｅｌｏｎｇ ｔｅｒｍｔｏｔｈｅｆ… 相似文献
13.
The ratio of nitrogen/phosphorus (N/P) is known to affect cell proliferation of some marine micro algae. We evaluated the
effect of N/P ratios on the proliferation and succession of phytoplankton using five marine micro algae species. We used two
sources of nitrogen, NH4Cl (N1) and urea (N2), and a single source of phosphorous, NaH2PO4(P). The optimal N/P ratio that differed among the five species was affected by the source of nitrogen, being as follows (N1/P, N2/P in order): Thalassiosira sp. (30/1, 20/1), Heterosigma akashiwo (30/1, 30/1), Chroomonas salina (20/1, 30/1), Chaetoceros gracilis (40/1, 60/1), and Alexandrium sp. (10/1, 30/1). Thus, the source of nitrogen must be considered when analyzing the N/P ratio. Our results provide insight
for predicting phytoplankton succession in coastal waters and may be used to forecast the potential risk of harmful algal
blooms. 相似文献
14.
基于陕西地区3个GNSS观测站2018年1～6月数据,利用北斗卫星导航系统进行水汽反演。首先利用不同星历产品计算水汽结果,分别与利用IGF解算的水汽结果、探空数据探测结果进行比较;再将不同星历得到的水汽结果进行相互对比。结果表明,利用3种星历都能获得精度和可靠性较高的水汽结果,其中精密星历和快速星历反演水汽的精度相当,各测站偏差均优于1 mm,标准差和均方根误差均优于3.5 mm;利用超快速星历（预报部分）反演水汽在各测站的偏差约为1 mm,标准差和均方根误差均优于5 mm。综合3种产品反演水汽的对应精度可知,利用3种星历产品均可反演大气可降水量,且超快速星历（预报部分）计算的水汽值可为气象预报提供参考依据。 相似文献
15.
孙建中 《地球科学与环境学报》1993,(Z2)
这里所指示的大气圈、水圈、岩石圈、生物圈以及人类的作用千变万化,从而对人类的生存造成巨大影响,构成了一个复杂的生态环境,讨论这些问题,对人类生存至关重要。 相似文献
16.
海面溢油对海洋生态的影响具有频率高、范围广和危害大的特点。卫星遥感已成为海面溢油监测的重要手段。本文从海面油膜光谱特性出发,与常用的光学卫星传感器建立对应关系,根据对不同光学遥感卫星的空间分辨率、时间分辨率、幅宽和波段数等主要物理参数的对比分析认为,MODIS传感器和HJ-1卫星有较强的海面溢油监测能力。故此,采用MODIS、BJ-1、HJ-1和FY-3光学卫星影像,对2006年3月和2011年6月渤海海面溢油污染事故进行了遥感监测。MODIS遥感图像可以清晰反映出2006年和2011年这2次溢油污染事故中海面油膜信息,HJ-1卫星遥感影像则能反映出2011年溢油污染事故中海面油膜信息,而BJ-1和FY-3卫星遥感影像不能反映出海面油膜信息。HJ-1、BJ-1和FY-3卫星在波段设置上相似,但是,BJ-1和FY-3卫星不能反映出油膜信息,所以,本文进一步对这2次溢油事件中的MODIS遥感影像的油水光谱反差和海水光谱方差进行计算,并对结果进行比较分析,实验结果表明,当MODIS某一波段的海水光谱方差小于油水光谱反差时,则该波段可以显示出油膜信息;而当油水光谱反差小于或接近海水方差时,则不能反映出海面油膜信息。从波谱响应、空间分辨率和时间分辨率,以及监测实例中说明MODIS传感器有较强的海面溢油监测能力。 相似文献
17.
利用小波变换对暴雨过程中GNSS气象要素的初步探索 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用小波分解对地基GNSS获取的可降水量(PWV)、气压和对流层延迟(ZTD)等时序进行处理和分析,以暴雨的实际降水量作为判别依据。研究结果表明,1 h间隔PWV与ZTD的小波高频分解系数接近,均能够从中提取暴雨预报特征信息,可用高频ZTD代替PWV进行小波分析;频率在30 min-1h之间的ZTD,预报时间信息应在第1~3层级进行搜寻,30 min以下频率的应在第3~5层级进行搜寻;db4小波分解PWV的暴雨预报阈值可设为-1.2,db4小波分解ZTD的暴雨预报阈值可设置为-0.007,db2小波分解ZTD的暴雨预报阈值可设为-0.01。 相似文献
18.
广西海洋资源丰富 ,品种繁多 ,为了更好开发 ,建议从法制、宣传教育、普及海洋资源有关知识 ,提高人们整体素质做起 ,进一步抓住机遇 ,合理开发 ,才能取得良好效益 ,达到预定目标 相似文献
19.
The application of a Grey Markov Model to forecasting annual maximum water levels at hydrological stations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Compared with traditional real-time forecasting,this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model(GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area.The GMM combines the Grey System and Markov theory into a higher precision model.The GMM takes advantage of the Grey System to predict the trend values and uses the Markov theory to forecast fluctuation values,and thus gives forecast results involving two aspects of information.The procedure for forecasting annul maximum water levels with the GMM contains five main steps:1) establish the GM(1,1) model based on the data series;2) estimate the trend values;3) establish a Markov Model based on relative error series;4) modify the relative errors caused in step 2,and then obtain the relative errors of the second order estimation;5) compare the results with measured data and estimate the accuracy.The historical water level records(from 1960 to 1992) at Yuqiao Hydrological Station in the estuary area of the Haihe River near Tianjin,China are utilized to calibrate and verify the proposed model according to the above steps.Every 25 years’ data are regarded as a hydro-sequence.Eight groups of simulated results show reasonable agreement between the predicted values and the measured data.The GMM is also applied to the 10 other hydrological stations in the same estuary.The forecast results for all of the hydrological stations are good or acceptable.The feasibility and effectiveness of this new forecasting model have been proved in this paper. 相似文献
20.
Physical properties of sea water,such as salinity,temperature,density and acoustic velocity,could be demarcated through degradation of energy caused by water absorption,attenuation and other factors.To overcome the challenging difficulties in the quick monitoring of these physical properties,we have explored the high resolution marine seismic survey to instantly characterize them.Based on the unique wavefield propagating in the sea water,we have developed a new approach to suppress the noise caused by the shallow sea water disturbance and obtain useful information for estimating the sea water structure.This approach improves seismic data with high signal-to-noise ratio and resolution.The seismic reflection imaging can map the sea water structure acoustically.Combined with the knowledge of local water body structure profile over years,the instant model for predicting the sea water properties could be built using the seismic data acquired from the specially designed high precision marine seismic acquisition.This model can also be updated with instant observation and the complete data processing system.The present study has the potential value to many applications,such as 3D sea water monitoring,engineering evaluation,geological disaster assessment and environmental assessment. 相似文献