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1.
西安市白鹿塬滑坡发生时间预测研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
笔者通过对白鹿塬区降水与滑坡发生时间之间的规律进行总结，认为本区滑坡发生与降水的丰年有着密切的关系，并应用卡尔曼滤波分析法对白鹿塬区滑坡发生时间进行了全区性预测，提出白鹿塬滑坡发生具有10年左右的中周期，20年左右的长周期，应及早作好防治工作。 相似文献
2.
This paper studies tidegauge records of stations on the Indian coastline. An analysis of trends did not reveal a monotonie
trend. Trends were seen for limited periods at only five of the eight stations on the Indian coast. A spectral analysis of
annual records produced evidence of long period cycles with shorter cycles riding on them. The shorter cycles had a period
of 5.0 years. The spectra of monthly records revealed evidence of a pole tide and an annual cycle. The amplitude of the pole
tide was estimated to be around 7.5 mm. This was larger than the equilibrium tide. A spectral analysis of monthly rainfall
at Bombay, a station on the Indian west coast, also showed a 13.9 month cycle and a (3,1,0) autoregressive model. But the
coherence between monthly rainfall and relative sealevel fluctuations was low. 相似文献
3.
将中国境内1980～1993年ECMWF再分析日降雨量和美国环境预报中心CMAP候降雨量按16种方案整合后,再与实测资料做相关分析得出粗略的质量评估;并应用旋转主成分分析结合复变量莫莱特小波变换分析方法就其在东亚季风区的空间模态和不同频率下变化的时间序列得出具体的质量评估。结果表明:由最好的整合资料算出的6个旋转空间模态与实测资料比较除顺序有所改变外二者惊人地相似,不仅其14 a日均降雨量和标准偏差借助遥感候降雨量较再分析数据大有改进(尤其在四川盆地),而且还保留了再分析日降雨量再现不同时间尺度下实测降雨量波动的能力。除周内波动有所不同外,与夏季风爆发和洪涝灾害关系密切的周际以上波动与实测资料大致相符或基本吻合。 相似文献
4.
以大通河流域享堂水文站1950~2005年实测径流数据为基础,综合运用趋势分析、累积距平、R/S分析、Morlet小波分析、降水-径流深度双累积曲线等数理统计方法,研究了大通河流域径流的年内分配、年际变化和周期振荡特征、并定量分析了气候因素和人类活动因素对径流变化的影响。结果表明:（1）大通河径流年内主要集中在510月,占年径流总量的82%左右。1950~2005年,大通河流域年径流呈微弱减少趋势,递减率为-0.55×108m3/10a（R2=0.025,P=0.249）,Hurst指数为0.58,表明未来一段时间内径流仍可能呈减少趋势;（2）1950~2005年,大通河流域年径流在27a时间尺度上周期震荡明显,经历了"多-少-多-少-多-少-多"7个循环交替;（3）大通河流域降水-径流深度双累积曲线在1994年发生显著偏移,1994年之前径流变化主要受降水影响,1994年以后,径流变化主要受人类活动影响。 相似文献
5.
6.
Tyson P. D. 《GeoJournal》1981,2(2):3-10
Short-term changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere, which may lead to prolonged periods of drought, are catalysts for producing accelerated desertification. In southern Africa the northeastward thrust of desertification from the western and central arid and semi-arid areas (the Karoo) has long been recognised, but up til 1970 research failed to demonstrate a clear-cut relationship between the process of desertification and long term rainfall data. The application of sophisticated analytical techniques to regional rainfall data showed, however, that spatial and temporal variations in the Southern African rainfall pattern have a striking degree of organization. The summer rainfall region of the northeastern part of the subcontinent experiences 16–20 year fluctuations, in contrast with 10–12 year fluctuations in the all-season rainfall region along the southern Cape coast. Concentrating on regionally averaged data for the summer rainfall region, the author used Fourier analysis to confirm the persistence of the quasi 20-year fluctuations since 1840. The wet spell of the late 1970s is expected to die out by 1982 and may be followed by a dry spell running from 1983 to 1992. Policy and management practices should be geared to prevent further desertification during this period. 相似文献
7.
基于经验模态分解(EMD)方法,对云南东川蒋家沟泥石流1965年至2004年40年的年输沙量时间序列进行多时间尺度分析,该时间序列分解成3个本征模函数(IMF)分量和趋势项(Res)分量。分析表明：蒋家沟泥石流的年输沙量存在多尺度的周期性波动,分别是2~4 a、6~10 a和17~21 a的准周期。通过对各IMF分量和Res趋势项分析发现,自1985年之后,波动的振幅开始变大,表明蒋家沟泥石流的年输沙量变化很大。降雨对蒋家沟泥石流的年输沙量及周期性波动有一定程度的影响。人类活动改变环境的同时,也为蒋家沟泥石流提供固体物质来源,这使得蒋家沟泥石流的年输沙量周期性波动变得更加复杂。 相似文献
8.
基于小波变换的北京地区1724～2009年降水量多尺度分析 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
基于小波分析方法,对1724~2009年北京气象站年降水量序列的变化特征进行了分析。结果表明,北京地区年降水量在其计算时域内各时间尺度分布不均匀,具有明显的局部化特征;其中,19~23a的时间尺度,震荡中心分别在1889年和1979年;35~37a左右的时间尺度主要发生在1920~1928年、1950~1960年和1983~1991年;83~87a的时间尺度在整个计算时域上均有发生,1769~1859年间表现明显。分析结果显示北京地区年降水量具有21a、35a和86a左右的主周期,其中86a左右的周期振荡最强,为第一主周期。计算的趋势表明,未来10余年北京仍属于降水偏少的时期。 相似文献
9.
A radiocarbon-dated series of 75 beach ridges, formed at regular intervals averaging 72 yr over the past 5400 yr, provides further support for the existence of a 70-yr oscillation in Northern Hemisphere climate, postulated recently from instrument data representing less than two cycles of this climate oscillation. Results from this study lend support to the interpretation that internal variations in the ocean–atmosphere system are an important factor in climate fluctuations on a decadal–centennial time scale. A temperature oscillation with a period of about 70 yr has been a previously unrecognized but fundamental part of the global climate system since at least the middle Holocene. 相似文献
10.
新疆不同区域牧业雪灾损失时频变化特征 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
选用新疆1952-2013年75个县707条雪灾害资料, 采用灰色关联评估模型以县为单位将新疆分为特重雪灾区、 重雪灾区、 一般雪灾区、 小雪灾区. 用气候趋势系数与五阶函数分析各雪灾区牲畜死亡数额的长期变化趋势, 并用morlet小波分析其振荡周期. 结果表明: 全疆及各雪灾区牲畜死亡数额基本都存在23 a左右的长周期, 14～17 a中周期, 10 a左右的小周期, 另外, 还存在5～7 a的小波动, 各区周期振荡的强弱及时间范围不同. 全疆及特重雪灾区牲畜死亡数额长期以来有减少趋势; 而重雪灾区和一般雪灾区牲畜死亡数额长期以来有微弱的增加趋势. 特重雪灾区牲畜死亡数额长期变化趋势决定了新疆雪灾牲畜死亡数额的长期变化趋势, 全疆平均每年因雪灾牲畜死亡数额以0.4%的速率递减, 特重雪灾区每年按上一年度总额1.4%的速率递减. 由于20世纪80年代开始, 新疆有计划、 大规模推行牧民定居工程, 从而大大提高了新疆牧业抗御自然灾害的能力, 以及冬春气温升高的缘故, 使得全疆及各雪灾区牲畜死亡数额大大减少. 因为各牧业区实施牧民定居工程开始的时间不同, 使全疆各雪灾区牲畜死亡数额高值期(年代际与年际尺度振荡的活跃期)进入低值期(少发时期)的临界时间存在差异. 相似文献
11.
In this paper, hydroclimatic fluctuations of the Upper Narmada catchment (upto Narmadasagar damsite) have been studied by
examining the time series (1901–80) of (i) 1-to 10-day annual extreme rainfall; (ii) seasonal total rainfall between May and
October; (iii) the precipitation concentration index (PCI); (iv) a modified version of PCI(MPCI); and (v) parameters of the
periods contributing specified percentages of rainfall to annual total. Most of these parameters followed the normal distribution
and did not show any significant long-term trend. However, some dominant long period oscillations have been noticed in extreme
rainfall, seasonal rainfall, PCI and MPCI series. Influence of break-monsoon days over India during July and August on the
rainfall activities of the Upper Narmada catchment has also been investigated and salient findings discussed. 相似文献
12.
The influence of astronomically driven short‐term climate change (Milankovitch cycles) on deep‐marine turbidite systems is not well‐known, particularly in the case of long‐term greenhouse intervals with no significant glacio‐eustatic sea‐level fluctuations. This study, carried out at the Gorrondatxe section (Global Stratotype Section and Point for the base of the Lutetian Stage in the western Pyrenees), demonstrates that the characteristics of lower–middle Eocene fan‐fringe/basin‐plain turbiditic and pelagic deposits varied in line with orbitally forced fluctuations in seasonal rainfall, runoff and terrigenous input to the sea. Reduced turbiditic activity during the formation of pelagic limy precessional hemicouplets indicates subdued seasonality and low terrigenous input. Conversely, turbidity currents were more frequent, had greater energy and were more voluminous during the formation of pelagic marly hemicouplets, suggesting precessional hemicycles with strong seasonality and heavy summer rainfall. These differences at precessional time scales were enhanced at maximum eccentricity because turbiditic activity was most intense when boreal summer occurred at perihelion (i.e. maximum seasonality) but declined when it occurred at aphelion. At minimum eccentricity, with relatively weak seasonality throughout one (or more than one) precessional cycle (>21 kyr), turbiditic activity remained relatively low. The pattern observed at the Gorrondatxe fan‐fringe/basin‐plain succession implies that the orbitally forced environmental changes must also have affected the inner and middle parts of the submarine fan. The astronomical influence on terrigenous sediment input also determined the changing characteristics of the pelagic sedimentation. Thus, terrigenous sediment contribution to pelagic sedimentation fluctuated by a factor of five during opposite precessional situations at maximum eccentricity, whereas there was almost no fluctuation at minimum eccentricity. 相似文献
13.
降水入渗补给地下水滞后时间分析探讨 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
利用地中蒸渗计多年资料,对不同岩性、不同埋深的蒸渗计降水入渗补给地下水滞后时间进行了分析。认为不同埋深、不同岩性的降水入渗补给地下水滞后时间随着降水特性、前期含水量的不同,表现为不同的时间段,降水入渗补给地下水滞后时间与地下水埋深符合乘幂关系,并推出了相应的数学模型。 相似文献
14.
通过藏南沉错湖芯的210Pb和137Cs的测试,获得湖芯的平均沉积速率为0.16cm/a.根据湖芯长度和分样间距,获得平均分辨率为6～7年,长达1 350年的连续湖芯环境序列.对湖芯样品磁学指标的低频磁化率(Xlf)、等温剩磁(IRM)、饱和等温剩磁(SIRM)、非滞后剩磁(ARM)等指标及其比值的测试,划分了650 A D.以来沉错湖区的冷暖变化阶段和相对强度.结果表明,690～860A D.和1 120～1 320 A.D.分别出现两个相对集中的暖期,每个暖期中间又具有相对寒冷时段.1 520～1 650A.D.出现寒冷时段之后,1 820A D.左右直至现在环境又逐渐进入转暖时期.在3个暖期中,以1 220A.D.前后的温暖程度最强,而冷期中以1 610～1 650A.D.达到最盛.沉错湖区冷暖环境的演变得到了其他资料的很好验证. 相似文献
15.
16.
高边坡变形非线性时变统计模型研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
基于高边坡长期变形监测资料,深入分析了边坡变形的影响因素,建立边坡非线形时变统计监控模型,并将模型应用于锦屏一级水电站边坡工程。通过典型测点长期监测资料的分析,确定时效和降雨是影响边坡变形的2个主要因素,并给出了各自的表述形式,在Matlab平台上,采用非线性回归方法得到边坡非线性时变统计模型的参数。在此基础上,根据边坡变形拟合残差时序,采用ARMA模型方法进行拟合和预测,对边坡非线性时变模型的拟合和预测进行修正。结果表明,模型能较好地描述高边坡的变形特征,并且具有很好的拟合和预测精度。 相似文献
17.
A series of long karst spring discharges have been analysed to determine trends, fluctuations and relationship to rainfall.
Data come from aquifers in southern Italy, and in some cases cover more than one hundred years of records. Based on yearly
discharge data, hydrological series show the drop of the discharge after 1986, which has been interrupted by the recent wet
years of 2009 and 2010. This drop is connected to the decrease in annual rainfall, but other factors also seem to contribute
to this phenomenon. Based on monthly scale data series, the relationship between meteorological and hydrological droughts
has been analyzed, using the standard precipitation index (SPI). As karst systems are large reservoirs, only longer meteorological
droughts induce groundwater droughts, and the start, duration and time-lag of the hydrological droughts have been evaluated. 相似文献
18.
G. K. Rangarajan 《Journal of Earth System Science》1994,103(4):439-448
Homogeneous Indian Monsoon region rainfall for the epoch 1871–1990 has been analysed using Singular Spectral Analysis. It
is shown that the HIM time series is simple in structure with only the annual oscillation and its first two harmonics accounting
for almost the entire variability. Longer period oscillations related to lunar tidal forcing, solar activity and quasibiennial
variation are conspicuously absent. It is also shown that the singular spectral decomposition is closely similar to complex
demodulation and thus provides variations in the signals which evolve only slowly with time. As the rainfall series is marked
by several jerky changes, predictability of HIM rainfall through the principal components derived from SSA appears impossible. 相似文献
19.
Recent Precipitation Trends in Hungary in the Context of Larger Scale Climatic Changes 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The time series of monthly precipitation totals from 14 Hungarian observing stations (1901–1998) were analysed to reveal the long term changes in precipitation characteristics occurred in the 20th century. A particular attention was given to the changes in the recent decades and their links with the larger scale climatic and circulation changes over Europe and the Atlantic.The statistical significancesof systematic changes are controlled by linear trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test. The long term fluctuations are illustrated applying a 15-point Gaussian filter on the time series. The Standardised Precipitation Index is used to evaluate the changes in the drought event frequency. The relationships with larger scale changes are mostly discussed relying on contemporary papers, and the Grosswetterlagen Catalogue is used as well.The annual precipitation total decreased by 15–20% in Hungary during the 20th century. The decline is substantial in both halves of the century, but the precipitation sums in the transition seasons declined in the first 50 years, and the winter precipitation decreased in the latest decades. The precipitation total of the period November–February declined significantly in the last 50 years. In the same time the mean winter value of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) increased, the positions of the main pressure patterns over the Atlantic are shifted northeastward, and lot of other coherent changes detected in the winter climate of the European–Atlantic region. The mean summer precipitation total has hardly changed, but the frequency of summer drought events increased. There are some signs of a shift of the Hungarian summer climate towards a Mediterranean like climate. 相似文献
20.
Based on the NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data and the daily rainfall data of ground observation at 164 weather stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1960 to 2013, the relationship between South Asia high low frequency oscillation and the drought and flood in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River were analyzed using a composite analysis, wavelet analysis and band-pass filtering analysis method. The results indicated that in the typical drought and flood years, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau 200 hPa atmosphere u, v low-frequency primary cycle and the summer rainfall cycle over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River were the same. In more summer rainfall, from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to east China and west Pacific coast, there existed a cycle-anticyclone-cycle low frequency wave train. Low-frequency anticyclone controlled eastern China and the low-frequency cyclone controlled the northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In drought years, results were opposite. In flood years, the precipitation of low frequency over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and that of 200 hPa atmospheric low frequency change of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was closely related. When the northerly wind in the northeast part of the the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was strong, and Lake Baikal southerly wind was strong, there was more precipitation. On the contrary, precipitation was less. The low frequency oscillation wave train was mainly spread from the northeast of China and Japan's southern to China’s southwest. However, in drought years, the relationship between them was not clear and needed to be further studied. 相似文献