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1.
The design of mooring systems for floating production units usually considers extreme environmental conditions as a primary design parameter. However, in the case of FPSO (Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading) units, the worst response for the mooring system may be associated with other sea state conditions due to the fact that its extreme response may be associated with a resonant period instead of an extreme wave height. The best way to deal with this problem is by performing long-term analysis in order to obtain extreme response estimates. This procedure is computationally very demanding, since many short-term environmental conditions, and their associated stochastic nonlinear time domain numerical simulations of the mooring lines, are required to obtain such estimates. A simplified approach for the long-term analysis is the environmental contour-line design approach. In this paper a Monte Carlo-based integration procedure combined with an interpolation scheme to obtain the parameters of the short-term response distribution is employed to hasten the long-term analysis. Numerical simulations are carried out for an FPSO at three different locations considering a North Sea joint probability distribution for the environmental parameters. The long-term analysis results are compared against those obtained using extreme environmental conditions and environmental contour-line methodology. These results represent the characteristic load effect for the design of mooring systems of floating units using the reliability analysis for mooring line. The results show that the long-term results are usually more critical than those obtained with the other approaches and even different mooring lines can be identified as the critical ones. 相似文献
2.
Characterising the joint distribution of extremes of ocean environmental variables such as significant wave height (HS) and spectral peak period (TP) is important for understanding extreme ocean environments and in the design and assessment of marine and coastal structures. Many applications of multivariate extreme value analysis adopt models that assume a particular form of extremal dependence between variables without justification. Models are also typically restricted to joint regions in which all variables are extreme, but regions where only a subset of variables is extreme can be equally important for design. The conditional extremes model of Heffernan and Tawn (2004) provides one approach to overcoming these difficulties.Here, we extend the conditional extremes model to incorporate covariate effects in all of threshold selection, marginal and dependence modelling. Quantile regression is used to select appropriate covariate-dependent extreme value thresholds. Marginal and dependence modelling of extremes is performed within a penalised likelihood framework, using a Fourier parameterisation of marginal and dependence model parameters, with cross-validation to estimate suitable model parameter roughness, and bootstrapping to estimate parameter uncertainty with respect to covariate.We illustrate the approach in application to joint modelling of storm peak HS and TP at a Northern North Sea location with storm direction as covariate. We evaluate the impact of incorporating directional effects on estimates for return values, including those of a structure variable, similar to the structural response of a floating structure. We believe the approach offers the ocean engineer a straightforward procedure, based on sound statistics, to incorporate covariate effects in estimation of joint extreme environmental conditions. 相似文献
3.
The paper describes a novel approach to the problem of estimating the extreme response statistics of a drag-dominated offshore structure exhibiting a pronounced dynamic behaviour when subjected to harsh weather conditions. It is shown that the key quantity for extreme response prediction is the mean upcrossing rate function, which can be simply extracted from simulated response time histories. A commonly adopted practice for obtaining adequate extremes for design purposes requires the execution of 20 or more 3-h time domain analyses for several extreme sea states. For early phase considerations, it would be convenient if extremes of a reasonable accuracy could be obtained based on shorter and fewer simulations. The aim of the work reported in the present paper has therefore been to develop specific methods which make it possible to extract the necessary information about the extreme response from relatively short time histories.The method proposed in this paper opens up the possibility to predict simply and efficiently both short-term and long-term extreme response statistics. The results presented are based on extensive simulation results for the Kvitebjørn jacket structure, in operation on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. Specifically, deck response time histories for different sea states simulated from an MDOF model were used as the basis for our analyses. 相似文献
4.
Characterising the dependence between extremes of wave spectral parameters such as significant wave height (HS) and spectral peak period (TP) is important in understanding extreme ocean environments and in the design and assessment of marine structures. For example, it is known that mean values of wave periods tend to increase with increasing storm intensity. Here we seek to characterise joint dependence in a straightforward manner, accessible to the ocean engineering community, using a statistically sound approach.Many methods of multivariate extreme value analyses are based on models which assume implicitly that in some joint tail region each parameter is either independent of or asymptotically dependent on other parameters; yet in reality the dependence structure in general is neither of these. The underpinning assumption of multivariate regular variation restricts these methods to estimation of joint regions in which all parameters are extreme; but regions where only a subset of parameters are extreme can be equally important for design. The conditional approach of Heffernan and Tawn (2004), similar in spirit to that of Haver (1985) but with better theoretical foundation, overcomes these difficulties.We use the conditional approach to characterise the dependence structure of HS and TP. The key elements of the procedure are: (1) marginal modelling for all parameters, (2) transformation of data to a common standard Gumbel marginal form, (3) modelling dependence between data for extremes of pairs of parameters using a form of regression, (4) simulation of long return periods to estimate joint extremes. We demonstrate the approach in application to measured and hindcast data from the Northern North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the North West Shelf of Australia. We also illustrate the use of data re-sampling techniques such as bootstrapping to estimate the uncertainty in marginal and dependence models and accommodate this uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation.We discuss the current approach in the context of other approaches to multivariate extreme value estimation popular in the ocean engineering community. 相似文献
5.
The present study considers the prediction of extreme values of the second-order hydrodynamic parameters related to offshore structures in waves, where the application of Gaussian distribution is not valid. Particularly, this study focuses on a characteristic function approach in the frequency domain to estimate the probability distribution of the second-order quantities, and the results are compared with direct simulations in the time domain. The stochastic behaviors of the second-order hydrodynamic quantities are investigated with the characteristic function approach, which involves eigenvalue analyses of Hermitian kernels constructed with quadratic transfer functions. Three different second-order responses are considered: the springing responses of TLP tendons representative of the sum-frequency problem, the slow-drift motions of a semi-submersible platform moored in waves as a representative of the difference-frequency problem, and the wave run-up around a vertical column for regular and irregular waves. The applicability of the present approach in predicting extreme values is assessed by comparing the results with the values obtained from time-domain signals. 相似文献
6.
A new hybrid method for the time-domain nonlinear simulation of the hydroelastic load effects and the peak-over-threshold (POT) method for the calculation of the short-term extreme responses are briefly described and applied to a flexible containership of the latest design. Statistical analysis has been carried out to study the sensitivity of the predicted extreme vertical bending moments and vertical shear forces to the changes in the threshold of the POT method, as well as the statistical uncertainty in the prediction due to the limited duration of the nonlinear simulation. It is recommended that 90%–95% quantile should be used as the threshold in the POT method and more than 100 h of time-domain simulation should be carried out in order to obtain satisfactory predictions of the short-term extreme nonlinear load effects. 相似文献
7.
The factors of safety for stationkeeping systems in current standards (ISO, API) are not derived or validated using reliability analyses. As the oil and gas exploration and production is breaking new boundaries, deploying new floating systems and moving into regions with harsher environments, it is of paramount importance to understand what level of reliability these new marine structures are achieving. This paper presents a reliability analysis of the mooring system of a Floating LNG (FLNG) vessel permanently moored and permanently manned offshore North West Australia in a tropical cyclone environment. The reliability analysis addresses both the mooring chain and the pile foundation. The analysis accounts for the long term characteristics of the environment, including the short term variability, in response to a given sea state and the variability and uncertainty in strength of the mooring chain and the pile. The stationkeeping system was analysed using detailed time domain simulations, capturing system non-linearities and low frequency oscillations as well as wave frequency responses and, thereby, reducing modelling uncertainties to a minimum.It is found that for the conditions modelled, neither the chain nor the pile meet a target reliability of 10−4/annum using the factors of safety commonly used in design following current ISO and API standards. New factors of safety are proposed to achieve this target reliability. For the pile design, one complicating factor is that current design standards do not explicitly define the exceedance probability that should be associated with the characteristic value of the undrained shear strength to be used in the design. It is demonstrated that the required factor of safety is crucially dependent on the definition of this characteristic value and on the level and the type of uncertainty in the soil strength profile. A recommendation is made regarding the definition of this characteristic value and the associated factor of safety. Furthermore, it is found that designing the mooring system to an environmental condition with a return period of 10,000 yr (as an Abnormal Limit State event), and setting the factor of safety to unity, meets the target reliability of 10−4/annum for the pile, if the characteristic undrained shear strength is a lower bound, defined in this paper by the 10th percentile value. For the chain however, this target reliability is not achieved. 相似文献
8.
The extreme values of wave climate data are of great interest in a number of different ocean engineering applications, including the design and operation of ships and offshore structures, marine energy generation, aquaculture and coastal installations. Typically, the return values of certain met-ocean parameters such as significant wave height are of particular importance. There exist many methods for estimating such return values, including the initial distribution approach, the block maxima approach and the peaks-over threshold approach. In a climate change perspective, projections of such return values to a future climate are of great importance for risk management and adaptation purposes. However, many approaches to extreme value modelling assume stationary conditions and it is not straightforward how to include non-stationarity of the extremes due to for example climate change. In this paper, various non-stationary GEV-models for significant wave height are developed that account for trends and shifts in the extreme wave climate due to climate change. These models are fitted to block maxima in a particular set of wave data obtained for a historical control period and two future projections for a future period corresponding to different emission scenarios. These models are used to investigate whether there are trends in the data within each period that influence the extreme value analysis and need to be taken into account. Moreover, it will be investigated whether there are significant inter-period shifts or trends in the extreme wave climate from the historical period to the future periods. The results from this study suggest that the intra-period trends are not statistically significant and that it might be reasonable to ignore these in extreme value analyses within each period. However, when it comes to comparing the different data sets, i.e. the historical period and the future projections, statistical significant inter-period changes are detected. Hence, the accumulated effect of a climatic trend may not be negligible over longer time periods. Interestingly enough, such statistically significant shifts are not detected if stationary extreme value models are fitted to each period separately. Therefore, the non-stationary extreme value models with inter-period shifts in the parameters are proposed as an alternative for extreme value modelling in a climate change perspective, in situations where historical data and future projections are available. 相似文献
9.
Fernando J. Mndez Melisa Menndez Alberto Luceo Raúl Medina Nicholas E. Graham 《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(1):131-138
This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design. 相似文献
10.
深海极端波浪环境为浮式海洋平台作业时最为关键的海洋动力环境之一。在其作用下,深海浮式平台的运动、气隙以及结构响应等均为近年来的研究热点。然而,在深海环境中,入射波浪环境往往通过X波段雷达进行测量,仅能获得波浪的短时统计值,极大限制了实海域浮动平台动力响应的研究。目前,尚无成熟的方法能够对海洋浮式平台所处海域的入射波时序进行实时测量。针对深远海半潜式平台的波浪时序随船测量问题,结合平台气隙响应与运动响应数据建立基于深层神经网络的波浪非线性解耦模型,准确估计辐射、绕射波浪以及其非线性成分对时序波浪场的影响。研究显示,基于深度神经网络的波浪时序测量技术可以实现从气隙响应到入射波信息的反推,利用该方法计算得到的波浪时序具有较高的精度。 相似文献
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12.
The present study introduces a design wave method for estimating the extreme horizontal slow-drift motion of moored floating offshore platforms under extreme conditions. Here, the design wave refers to an irregular incident wave of short duration that induces the extreme response of the desired return period. The present method is composed of the following four steps: linearization of the dynamic system, probabilistic analysis of the second-order Volterra series, generation of the irregular design waves, and the fully-coupled nonlinear simulations. For generating the design waves, two different conditioning methods are presented and compared: the conditioning of the extreme response amplitude and the conditioning of the most likely extreme response profile. The procedure was applied to a deep-water semi-submersible, and the results appeared to be promising compared to the full-length nonlinear simulations. 相似文献
13.
This paper addresses some important issues related to the estimation of long-term extreme responses of marine structures. Several convolution models to establish the long-term distribution of a marine structure response parameter are available in the literature. These methods are typically based either on all short-term peaks, all extreme short-term peaks or all short-term upcrossing rates. The main assumptions and simplifications of the five models most usually found in the literature are discussed in this paper. A linear single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system along with a bi-lognormal probability model for significant wave heights and zero-crossing wave periods have been used for numerical tests. An improved approach to efficiently evaluate the long-term convolution integrals is also proposed in this paper. It is shown that a combination of the Inverse First Order Reliability Method (IFORM) and an Importance Sampling Monte Carlo Simulation (ISMCS) approach can be used to obtain a very good result for the exact solution of long-term integrals. 相似文献
14.
Slamming pressures are predicted using a nonlinear ship motion program whose input is an ensemble of short wave trains tailored to produce a large, linear pitch response. These short wave trains are calculated via a design methodology that first creates short time series containing a specified, large ship response and then back-calculates the incident wave trains using linear systems theory. The background simulations and theory used to create these short time series are presented here. Monte Carlo simulation of moderately rare events of a random process indicate the random Fourier component phase PDFs are non-uniform, non-identically distributed, and dependent on the rarity of the target event. These PDFs are modeled using a single parameter, Modified Gaussian distribution and used to generate design time series with a given expected value at a specific time. To predict rare events without resorting to Monte Carlo simulation, the parameters of the Modified Gaussian distributions are calculated via characteristic function comparison. The characteristic functions compare a target PDF calculated from extreme value theory to a PDF based on a discrete Fourier representation of the stochastic process with non-uniform component phases. The comparison to extreme value theory helps to quantify the risk associated with rare events. 相似文献
15.
To assess the flood protection capacity of dunes in The Netherlands, a semi-probabilistic dune-erosion prediction method is currently in use in which uncertainties in input parameters of an empirical dune erosion model were taken into account, with the exception of the uncertainty in the extreme surge distribution. Previous research has shown that the surge is by far the most influential parameter affecting erosion in the currently used erosion model, which is due both to the influence of the surge level itself and to the conditional dependence of the wave height and period on the surge level in the probabilistic model used for the assessment. Furthermore, the distribution of extreme surge levels has been shown to contain large statistical uncertainty. The inclusion of uncertainty in input variables into probabilistic models results in more extreme events (in this case erosion) for the same exceedance probability, largely due to the incorporation of higher values of the input variables. The goal of the research described in this paper was to determine the impact of the inclusion of uncertainty in the extreme surge distribution on the estimate of critical erosion (erosion associated with an exceedance frequency of 10− 5 per year). The uncertainty in the surge distributions was estimated and parameterized, and was incorporated into the probabilistic model. A reduction in uncertainty was subsequently imposed to estimate what value a reduction in uncertainty can offer, in terms of the impact on critical erosion. The probabilistic technique first-order reliability method (FORM) was applied to determine the relative contribution of the uncertainty in the surge distribution (as well as the remaining stochastic variables) to the critical erosion. The impact of the inclusion of uncertainty in the surge distribution on the critical retreat distance was found to be substantial with increases ranging from 34% to 93% of the original estimate at five locations along the Dutch coast. The reduced uncertainty showed a more subtle impact, with increases in critical retreat distance ranging from 10% to 26% of the original estimate. The relative importance analysis showed that the uncertainty in the surge distribution has a strong influence, with the relative importance ranging from 10% to 23% for an exceedance frequency of 10− 5 per year. 相似文献
16.
Collision between risers is an important design and operational concern, especially in deep water since the probability of collision tends to increase as the riser length increases. Riser collision is due to the joint effects of many processes, i.e. environmental loads, hydrodynamic interference and surface floater motions and the most of them are stochastic processes. This paper provides an approach for estimating the failure probability of riser collision by considering these joint effects and their stochastic nature. Firstly, a procedure for establishing the distribution function of the extreme minimum relative distance between two risers is introduced based on simulation tools and statistical data. Numerical simulation is performed to compute the minimum distance between risers for a given duration. Repeated simulations are applied so that the extreme value distribution can be established. Secondly, reliability analysis is performed by considering the uncertainties of input parameters related to environmental loads and riser system. The collision probability is calculated based on both the First/Second Order Reliability Method and the Monte Carlo simulation techniques. 相似文献
17.
使用美国北卡罗来纳州的 FRF 1985—2016 年的极值波高及其持续时间数据，采用最优的 Gumbel-Hougaard copula函数和 Kendall 分布函数构建极值波高和相应历时不同组合的联合概率分布模式，分析各个组合的遭遇概率、“或”重现期、“且”重现期和 Kendall 重现期，以出现最大可能概率的方法推算各组合联合设计值。结果表明：Kendall 重现期所对应的累积频率更准确地代表了特定设计频率下的风险率；重现期分别为 5 年、10 年、20 年、50 年、100 年、200 年推算的 Kendall重现期设计值介于“或”重现期和“且”重现期设计值之间，小于相应的边缘分布设计值；基于 Kendall 重现期的极值波高及其持续时间不同重现期组合推算的结果可为海洋工程构筑物设计与风险管理提供新的选择与参考。 相似文献
18.
Extreme dynamic, non-linear response of fixed platforms using a complete long-term approach 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The general theoretical basis for application of the direct long-term approach to offshore structures with non-Gaussian response is outlined. The key to the method is the determination of the short-term response distribution. Special considerations should be taken, depending on the application, and the Weibull distribution with a special fitting procedure is suggested as a short-term probability model for fixed offshore platforms. The efficiency of the method is improved by introducing smoothing functions for the variation of the Weibull parameters with the seastate.
The method is applied to a jacket and jackup platform. The results show that smoothing functions increase the efficiency considerably. The design storm method compares well with the long-term results for the selected structures, but only the long-term approach yields realistic estimates of the design extreme response when both extreme and resonant seastates contribution to the 100-year response. 相似文献
19.
Reliable design codes are of great importance when constructing new civil engineering concepts such as floating bridges. Previously only a scarce number of floating bridges have been built in rough wave conditions and only limited knowledge of the extreme environmental conditions and the associated extreme response exists. To form a better design basis an increased understanding of the sensitivity in the structural response towards changes in short-crested sea parameters is needed. Furthermore, acquiring the necessary accuracy in simulated extreme response is often a computationally expensive endeavour and the number of simulations needed is often based on experience. The present study investigates the wave-induced short-term extreme response of a simplified end-anchored floating bridge concept for several wave environments with a return period of 100 years. The study includes convergence of the coefficient of variation for the extreme response for different realization lengths as well as number of realizations. The sensitivity in the structural response towards different main wave directions and spreading exponents is investigated and includes both transverse and vertical displacement response spectra and extreme Von Mises stress in the bridge girder cross-section. The extreme response is based on an accuracy of 2% in the coefficient of variation equivalent to 40 3-h realizations and a low sensitivity in the response is found for natural occurring spreading exponents and for main wave directions within 15° from beam sea. 相似文献
20.
This work presents a semi-analytical methodology to select design environmental conditions based on long-term cross-section utilization ratios at the TDZ (Touchdown Zone) for steel catenary risers. This approach uses simplified analytical models to calculate time series of short-term utilization ratios, defined according to the DnV-OS-F201 (2010) standard. After processing these time series, long-term utilization ratios can be determined with relatively low computational cost. By evaluating long-term utilization ratios, it is possible to define short-term design environmental conditions, defined as short-term conditions for which the extreme riser responses are equal to the long-term ones. This kind of methodology may represent a substantial change to the traditional focus given to riser design, which is based on responses obtained from extreme environmental conditions, instead of on the extreme responses. 相似文献