共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
基于CMIP5多模式集合资料的中国气温和降水预估及概率分析 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
选用国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）提供的30个全球大气-海洋耦合模式（AOGCMs）在典型浓度路径（RCPs）情景下气温和降水量的预估结果,采用扰动法,用站点观测资料作为气候背景场替代AOGCM模拟的气候平均,尝试校正气候预估结果的系统性偏差。通过集合方法,用概率的形式给出中国平均气温升高1 ℃,2 ℃和3 ℃以及降水量增加10%,20%和30%概率的空间分布,讨论了中国未来平均气温和降水量可能的变化。结果表明：经过扰动法处理后的气温和降水量预估集合保留了当前气候的局地信息。预估平均气温在中国均有上升,北方地区尤其是青藏高原地区变暖的程度大于南方地区,北方大部分地区平均气温升高的趋势为0.28 ℃/10a。在21世纪初,中国北方地区年平均气温升高1 ℃的可能性超过50%。到了21世纪末期,中国大部分地区平均气温升高2 ℃的可能性超过60%,新疆北部以及青藏高原南部地区气温升高3 ℃的可能性超过50%。预估中国降水量普遍增多,中国北方地区降水量增多的程度要明显大于江淮流域及其以南地区,尤其是西北地区降水量增多非常显著,降水量增多30%的可能性超过70%以上。 相似文献
2.
基于模式优选的21世纪中国气候变化情景集合预估 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
未来气候变化情景预估是制定气候变化应对和适应策略的科学基础。本文利用参与耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）的30个气候模式的模拟数据,通过评估各模式对历史气候变化的模拟能力,筛选出模拟区域气候变化的最优模式组合,进而建立偏最小二乘回归（PLS）集合预估模型,据此利用最优模式模拟结果预估区域温度和降水变化情景。通过与历史数据的对比,研究发现本文基于最优模式建立的PLS集合预估模型不仅优于传统的多模式集合平均,而且也优于利用全部模式建立的PLS集合预估模型,体现了模式优选过程的重要性。本文基于优选模式的PLS集合预估模型预估结果表明：① 21世纪各区域温度将持续上升,且冬半年升温速率总体大于夏半年,北方地区升温速率总体高于南方地区;RCP 4.5排放情景下温度上升先快后慢,转折点出现在21世纪中期,RCP 8.5排放情景下,呈持续增加趋势,至21世纪末的升温幅度约为RCP 4.5情景的2倍。② 21世纪各区降水变化均呈显著增加趋势,并表现出高排放情景大于低排放情景,少雨区大于多雨区的特征,但是降水增加过程伴有明显的年代际波动。对比发现,传统的等权重集合平均全部模式（EMC）方法预估的中国夏季变暖速率高于冬季,且降水基本呈线性增加,有悖于全球变暖的基本特征及中国降水具有鲜明的年代际变化特征的基本认识。因而,本文预估的温度和降水变化特征均更符合中国气候变化的基本规律。 相似文献
3.
气候变化与土地利用/覆被变化对中国北方农牧交错带水资源影响研究进展 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
中国北方农牧交错带对全球变化响应敏感,研究气候变化及土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）背景下北方农牧交错带水资源问题,对变化环境下生态脆弱区的水资源利用与管理具有重要意义。通过对北方农牧交错带气候与LUCC演变特征及其对水资源影响等方面的综合研究,总结得出：（1） 近几十年,该地区气候呈暖干化趋势,气温升高速率与降水减少速率均高于全球平均水平。（2） LUCC以农牧相互转化为主,土地利用结构未发生明显变化。（3） 该地区流域径流、地下水位与气温负相关,与降水量正相关,且降水作用更明显;近几十年来,LUCC成为影响该地区生态水文过程的主导因素,对水资源影响的贡献率越来越大。同时,针对目前研究中存在的问题及薄弱环节,提出未来研究的发展趋势和亟需重点加强的研究方向。 相似文献
4.
5.
IPCC-AR4模式对中国21世纪气候变化的情景预估 总被引：41，自引：3，他引：38
利用政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)第四次评估报告提供的13个新一代气候系统模式的模拟结果,分析了不同情景下(高排放SRES A2、中等排放A1B、低排放B1)中国区域未来100年的气候变化。结果表明,21世纪中国气候预估显著变暖、变湿,世纪末变暖范围在1.6℃~5℃之间,年降水量增加1.5%~20%。在A2、A1B和B1情景下,21世纪末期增暖幅度依次为5.3℃、4.3℃和2.8℃,平均3.5℃,年降水量预估增加依次为11%、9.6%和6.4%,平均达7.5%。气温和降水变化的地理分布显示:北方增温幅度大于南方,降水的增加也主要集中在北方。冬季变暖最明显,降水则在冬、春季增加较显著。模式预估结果的不确定性分析表明,新一代全球系统模式对21世纪中国气候变化预估的可靠性得到了提高。 相似文献
6.
Past and future climate variations in the Norwegian Arctic: overview and novel analyses 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
Sparse stations and serious measuring problems hamper analyses of climatic conditions in the Arctic. This paper presents a discussion of measuring problems in the Arctic and gives an overview of observed past and projected future climate variations in Svalbard and Jan Mayen. Novel analyses of temperature conditions during precipitation and trends in fractions of solid/liquid precipitation at the Arctic weather stations are also outlined. Analyses based on combined and homogenized series from the regular weather stations in the region indicate that the measured annual precipitation has increased by more than 2.5% per decade since the measurements started in the beginning of the 20th century. The annual temperature has increased in Svalbard and Jan Mayen during the latest decades, but the present level is still lower than in the 1930s. Downscaled scenarios for Svalbard Airport indicate a further increase in temperature and precipitation. Analyses based on observations of precipitation types at the regular weather stations demonstrate that the annual fraction of solid precipitation has decreased at all stations during the latest decades. The reduced fraction of solid precipitation implies that the undercatch of the precipitation gauges is reduced. Consequently, part of the observed increase in the annual precipitation is fictitious and is due to a larger part of the "true" precipitation being caught by the gauges. With continued warming in the region, this virtual increase will be measured in addition to an eventual real increase. 相似文献
7.
全球气候变暖情景下黑河山区流域水资源的变化 总被引：40，自引：19，他引：21
利用有关水文气象观测资料,对全球气候变暖情景下祁连山区黑河流域水资源的变化特征、成因及趋势进行了分析,并在此基础上提出了未来各种假定气候情景下黑河山区径流变化的计算模式。分析及计算结果表明:黑河山区水资源对全球气候变暖的响应十分明显,但受其特殊地理位置的影响,水资源的变化又有着显著的地域性特征。总体上,山区的气温和降水随全球增温均呈上升和增加的趋势,且气温上升的幅度大于全球平均水平,山区径流亦随降水量的增加而增加,但增幅随着气温升高而逐渐减小,除非遭遇到比较极端的气候情景,如气温升幅与降水减幅同时出现较大值的"暖-干"气候组合或气温降幅与降水增幅的同时出现较大值的"冷-湿"气候组合等。因此,可以预计,未来几十年里黑河山区水资源量虽随着降水、气温的变化而上下波动,但变化相对稳定,其幅度基本在目前出山径流量的±10%左右范围内。 相似文献
8.
9.
青藏高原当代气候变化特征及其对温室效应的响应 总被引：40，自引：3，他引：37
利用１９６１￣１９９０年青藏高原地区４８个台站的气温、降水资料,通过ＥＯＦ展开,将气温序列向前延长至１９０１年,在此基础上分析了高原地区当代气候变化的总体特征,同时模拟结果,讨论了高原气候对全球变暖的响应。结果表明,本世纪以来青藏高原地区气温变化的总趋势是上升的,最近３０ａ高原地区的降水总体上有增加的趋势,气温和降水的变化似乎与大气ＣＯ２含量增加所引起的温室效应增强有关。 相似文献
10.
20世纪中国气候变化研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Studies on the 20th century climate change in China have revealed that under the background of global warming over the past century,climate in China has also experienced significant change with mean annual temperature increased by about 0.5 °C.More reliable results for the latter part of the 20th century indicate that the largest warming occurred in Northwest China,North China and Northeast China,and the warming in winter is most significant.Although no obvious increase or decrease trends were detected for mean precipitation over China in the past half century,regional differences are very distinct.In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,precipitation increased,while that in the Yellow River Basin markedly decreased.Studies suggest that climate change in China seems to be related not only with the internal factors such as ENSO,PDO,and the others,but also with the anthropogenic effects such as greenhouse gas emissions,and land use.The future climate change studies in China seem to be important in narrowing understanding the nature of China's climate change and its main causes,since it is significant for projection and for impact assessment of climate change in the future. 相似文献
11.
Possible change on the runoff in the upper Yellow River basin under global climate change 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
YongChao Lan Jun Wen JunJie Chang YeXin Xu YongPing Shen XingLin Hu JinQi Lu 《寒旱区科学》2009,1(2):0157-0164
In this study,the characteristics and changing trends of temperature,precipitation,and runoff in the upper Yellow River basin up Tangnag station are analyzed by using hydrological and meteorological data in the past 50 years from observation stations in the basin.Further,in this study,the evolving trend of runoff in the future decades is forecasted in the basin based on the method of suppositional climate scenes combination.The results indicate temperature variation in the basin has an evident positive relation with global warming,and the precipitation variations are quite complicated in the basin because of differences of located geographic positions during the past 50 years.Runoff in the basin has been decreasing continually since the end of the 1980s because the mean temperature in the basin has been rising and precipitation in the main areas of runoff formation in the basin has been decreasing.Runoff will largely decrease if precipitation decreases and temperature rises continuously,whereas runoff will increase if temperature is invariable and precipitation increases largely;the increase magnitude of runoff may be more than that of precipitation because of the synchronously increasing supply of meltwater from snow,glacier,and frozen soils in future several decades. 相似文献
12.
V. F. Loginov 《Geography and Natural Resources》2014,35(1):7-17
This paper is concerned with some debatable issues related to assessments of the role played by greenhouse gases and aerosols in the formation of seasonal patterns of temperature change in the northern and southern hemispheres as well as of air temperature across the territory of Belarus. It is shown that the periods of low aerosol pollution of the atmosphere coincide with high summer temperatures in the region. A warming period of the 1930s–early 1940s in the northern hemisphere (in the Arctic) was also observed during a warm season. In recent years when aerosol pollution has decreased, the growth rate of summer temperatures has increased; the temperature rise during a cold period became comparable to that observed during a warm period. In terms of the theory of greenhouse warming of the climate system, however, the temperature rise must be more pronounced in a cold season. Over the last 15–16 years, global temperature, remaining the highest for the period of instrumental observations, has not been increasing, whereas carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere has increased by more than 30%. A detailed study is made of the consequences of the forecasted climate warming in climate-dependent sectors of the economy. It is concluded that there is a need to work out multivariant adaptation measures in view of the uncertainty of existing knowledge regarding the causes for climate change, and because of the large spread in scenario-based assessments of future climate changes. 相似文献
13.
Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale. 相似文献
14.
基于REOF-EEMD的西南地区气候变化区域分异特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
西南地区是全球变化区域响应的特殊地区,探究其气候变化区域分异特征具有重要的科学意义。文中选用REOF方法开展研究区气温和降水变化特征的空间分区,借助EEMD与BG分割算法等方法细致辨析了不同气候分区的气候演变特征。结果显示：① 西南地区年均温和年均降水变化均可划分为3个亚区,各自的空间界限高度相似,但降水Ⅱ、Ⅲ区的界限更偏南。② 20世纪50年代以来各气温亚区的年均温显著升高,川渝气温变化与全球变暖同步,黔西、黔中、滇北散布若干点状冷区。各降水亚区的时空差异明显,相较Ⅲ区,Ⅰ、Ⅱ区年均降水的波动性及年代际变化的差异更显著。③ ENSO事件对研究区气候变化的影响深远,不同气温、降水亚区对其的响应不尽相同。④ 不同气温亚区年均温序列突变点的收敛性较强,大致发生在1997年前后。不同降水亚区年均降水序列突变点的收敛性较弱。⑤ 各气温亚区年均温增加的持续性较强,Ⅱ、Ⅲ区尤甚。降水Ⅰ、Ⅱ区降水变化趋势不甚明显且具有一定的随机性,Ⅰ区的可能呈减速趋缓的减湿趋势,Ⅱ区的可能出现弱度减湿趋势,Ⅲ区降水趋于弱增。 相似文献
15.
Progress in China’s climate change study in the 20th century 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
IPCC (2001) pointed out that the earth's climate was undergoing a remarkable change with characteristics of global warming over the past 100 years. The latest research showed that the global mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.6 oC since 1861. It is very likely that the last 20 years in the 20th century was the warmest decades. The Northern Hemisphere temperatures in the 20th century appeared to have been unprecedented during the past millennium. The research also indicates th… 相似文献
16.
This study is a broad-scale synthesis of information on climate changes in two Arctic terrestrial regions, eastern Siberia and the Alaska–Yukon area of North America. Over the past 60 years (1951–2010), the trends of temperature and precipitation in the two regions are broadly similar in their seasonality. However, atmospheric advection influences the two regions differently during winter. The differential advective effects are much weaker in the other seasons. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is the strongest correlator with interannual variability in the two regions, followed by the Arctic Oscillation and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.Projected changes by the late 21st Century are qualitatively similar to the changes that have been ongoing over the past 60 years, although the rate of change increases modestly under mid-range forcing scenarios (e.g., the A1B scenario). The greatest warming is projected to occur farther north over the Arctic Ocean in response to sea ice loss. Precipitation is projected to increase by all models, although increases in evapotranspiration preclude conclusions about trends toward wetter or drier land surface conditions. A notable feature of the future climate simulations is a strong maximum of pressure decreases in the Bering Sea region, implying further advective changes. 相似文献
17.
全球变暖是当前全球气候变化研究的热点之一,新疆深居亚欧大陆内陆,地形气候复杂,探讨该区域气候变化与海拔的关系对全球气候变化研究具有重要的参考意义。基于1958—2017年新疆41个气象站的月和年平均气候数据,采用一元线性回归、Mann Kendall（M-K）趋势分析和突变检验等方法分析该地区气候变化的时空分布与海拔的关系。结果表明：1958—2017年新疆年均气温、年均降水量均呈上升趋势,但增加幅度具有时间和空间差异。在时间上,北疆四季平均气温增温幅度均大于南疆（冬季除外）,四季降水量增幅北疆大于南疆（夏季除外）;在空间上,北疆气温和降水的增幅均大于南疆。研究区各个站点气温呈现出南部高而北部低的空间格局,年均降水量北部多,南部低。各个站点气温倾向率总体随海拔增加而减少,年均降水量变化率随海拔升高而增加,在不同海拔带内部存在差异。综上所述,受全球气候变暖的影响,近60 a来新疆年均气温和年均降水量均呈上升趋势,尤其是北疆对全球气候变暖的响应较为敏感。 相似文献
18.
全球升温导致区域干湿格局转变,千年尺度中全新世暖期和百年尺度中世纪暖期可以为探究现代的气候趋势提供历史相似型。通过湖相沉积、冰芯、孢粉、树轮等古气候记录和PMIP3/CMIP5计划的古气候模型模拟数据对比分析,结果表明,祁连山地区中全新世暖期（7.2—6.0 ka BP）东亚夏季风强盛,降水较多,气候温暖湿润;中世纪暖期（950—1250 AD）与小冰期表现为暖干—冷湿气候机制。现代观测数据显示,祁连山地区呈现暖湿化,但现代的气候机制与自然因子主导下暖期的响应机制差异较大,表明了人类活动对自然发展下气候环境的影响。因此,自然因素与人类活动共同作用是准确预测研究区未来干湿格局的基础。 相似文献
19.
新疆气候时空变化特征及其趋势(英文) 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7
Temperature and precipitation time series datasets from 1961 to 2005 at 65 meteorological stations were used to reveal the spatial and temporal trends of climate change in Xinjiang, China. Annual and seasonal mean air temperature and total precipitation were analyzed using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation, and R/S methods. The results indicate that: (1) both temperature and precipitation increased in the past 45 years, but the increase in temperature is more obvious than that of precipitation; (2) for temperature increase, the higher the latitude and the higher the elevation the faster the increase, though the latitude has greater influence on the increase. Northern Xinjiang shows a faster warming than southern Xinjiang, especially in summer; (3) increase of precipitation occurs mainly in winter in northern Xinjiang and in summer in southern Xinjiang. Ili, which has the most precipitation in Xinjiang, shows a weak increase of precipitation; (4) although both temperature and precipitation increased in general, the increase is different inside Xinjiang; (5) Hurst index (H) analysis indicates that climate change will continue the current trends. 相似文献
20.
Progress in China’s climate change study in the 20th century 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Studies on the 20th century climate change in China have revealed that under the background of global warming over the past
century, climate in China has also experienced significant change with mean annual temperature increased by about 0.5 °C.
More reliable results for the latter part of the 20th century indicate that the largest warming occurred in Northwest China,
North China and Northeast China, and the warming in winter is most significant. Although no obvious increase or decrease trends
were detected for mean precipitation over China in the past half century, regional differences are very distinct. In the middle
and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, precipitation increased, while that in the Yellow River Basin markedly decreased.
Studies suggest that climate change in China seems to be related not only with the internal factors such as ENSO, PDO, and
the others, but also with the anthropogenic effects such as greenhouse gas emissions, and land use. The future climate change
studies in China seem to be important in narrowing understanding the nature of China’s climate change and its main causes,
since it is significant for projection and for impact assessment of climate change in the future. 相似文献