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论气候变暖背景下干旱和干旱灾害风险特征与管理策略简 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The drought is a most severe natural disaster worldwide, which leads to great risk in human being. The drought disaster and risk have more prominent because of obvious climatic warming in the last hundred years. At present, the understanding of the internal laws of the occurrence of drought and drought risk is not comprehensive, and the recognition of the characteristics of the drought and drought risk under climatic warming is obscure. In this paper, we summarized systematically the domestic and overseas research progress of the drought and drought disaster risk, introduced the principle of the drought disaster transfer process and the essential features of drought disaster, analyzed synthetically the main characteristics and interactions among the key factors of the drought disaster risk, discussed the effect of climatic warming on drought and drought disaster risk, and probed into the basic requirement of drought disaster risk management. Above all, we provide the main protective measurements of the drought disaster and the main strategy of drought disaster risk management. 相似文献
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对我国干旱管理现状进行了分析,指出了存在的问题,介绍了抗旱工作要从被动抗旱向主动防旱、科学防旱转变的趋势,并从应急抗旱向常规抗旱和长期抗旱转变的科学管理理念出发,提出我国的干旱管理方式应该从现行的危机管理向风险管理转变,并重点介绍了干旱风险管理的几个主要方面:干旱期的水资源管理、干旱早期预警和干旱预案. 相似文献
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区域气象干旱评估分析模式 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
为应对全球范围内日益严重的干旱问题,对区域气象干旱相对完整的评估分析模式开展了探讨。提出了从区域气象干旱识别到干旱特征值计算,再到干旱特征多变量分析的3个分析评估步骤。并以渭河流域为例,对研究区域进行了矩形干旱评估单元划分,选取了RDI（Reconnaissance Drought Index）为评估指标对区域内各单元各时段的干旱状态进行了识别,结果与历史记载的干旱年份吻合较好。分别采用了分布拟合、相关系数和Copula函数等统计学方法对区域干旱的干旱特征值（干旱历时、干旱面积、干旱强度和干旱频率）进行了特征分析,得出了一系列的单变量、双变量及多变量特征分析对比结果。通过对各类分布函数的计算和绘图,得到了渭河流域干旱事件发生的条件概率和重现期,形成了一套相对完整的区域干旱评估分析模式。 相似文献
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利用黄河流域160个气象站1961-2010年逐日综合气象干旱指数(CI)指数, 对比分析两种用逐日CI指数判断月干旱过程的方法. 结果表明: 对重大干旱事件个例来说, 两种方法都能大体描述事件的月干旱过程, 但干旱的强度和范围有所不同. 从干旱发生的范围来看, 两种结果的差别较小, 方法I的识别结果范围更大、更连续, 特别是对青海旱情的判断常常比实际范围大;而方法II的识别结果范围稍小, 大体上能反应干旱的整体范围, 但有时也偶尔会遗漏小部分旱区;从干旱发生的强度来看, 方法I对干旱事实的描述偏轻, 而方法II以重-特旱为主, 与实际情况更相符. 从对黄河流域近50 a月干旱频率的分析结果来看, 两种方法一致表明黄河流域分界线以西的地区常年不容易发生干旱, 而对于分界线以东地区, 两种方法的统计结果有较大差异. 方法I的结果表明, 分界线以东地区干旱的月发生频率较大, 其中, 轻旱的月发生频率最大, 其次为中旱, 而重旱和特旱的发生频率很小;方法II的结果表明, 分界线以东地区干旱的月发生频率在60%~80%左右, 其中重旱的月发生频率最大, 其次为中旱, 轻旱和特旱的发生频率很小. 总体来说, 方法II对黄河流域月干旱情况的评估结果与干旱实际情况更一致. 相似文献
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Karen G. Villholth Christian Tøttrup Martin Stendel Ashton Maherry 《Hydrogeology Journal》2013,21(4):863-885
Groundwater drought denotes the condition and hazard during a prolonged meteorological drought when groundwater resources decline and become unavailable or inaccessible for human use. Groundwater drought risk refers to the combined physical risk and human vulnerability associated with diminished groundwater availability and access during drought. An integrated management support tool, GRiMMS, is presented, for the mapping and assessment of relative groundwater drought risk in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. Based on composite mapping analysis of region-wide gridded relative indices of meteorological drought risk, hydrogeological drought proneness and human groundwater drought vulnerability, the mapping results highlight consistent areas across the region with highest groundwater drought risk and populations in the order of 39 million at risk of groundwater drought at present. Projective climate-model results suggest a potentially significant negative impact of climate change on groundwater drought risk. The tool provides a means for further attention to the key, but neglected, role of groundwater in drought management in Africa. 相似文献
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He Jun Yang Xiao-Hua Li Jian-Qiang Jin Ju-Liang Wei Yi-Ming Chen Xiao-Juan 《Natural Hazards》2014,75(2):199-217
Meteorological droughts can affect large areas and may have serious environmental, social and economic impacts. These impacts depend on the severity, duration, and spatial extent of the precipitation deficit and the socioeconomic vulnerability of the affected regions. This paper examines the spatiotemporal variation of meteorological droughts in the Haihe River basin. Meteorological droughts events were diagnosed using daily meteorological data from 44 stations by calculating a comprehensive drought index (CI) for the period 1961–2011. Based on the daily CI values of each station over the past 50 years, the drought processes at each station were confirmed, and the severity, duration and frequency of each meteorological drought event were computed and analyzed. The results suggest the following conclusions: (1) the use of the CI index can effectively trace the development of drought and can also identify the duration and severity of each drought event; (2) the average drought duration was 57–85 days in each region of the Haihe River basin, and the region with the highest average values of drought duration and drought severity was Bohai Bay; (3) drought occurred more than 48 times over the study period, which is more than 0.95 times per year over the 50 years studied. The average frequencies of non-drought days, severe drought days and extreme drought days over the study period were 51.2, 3.2 and 0.4 %, respectively. Severe drought events mainly occurred in the south branch of the Hai River, and extreme drought events mainly occurred in the Shandong Peninsula and Bohai Bay; (4) the annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration of the Haihe River basin show decreasing trends over the past 50 years. The frequency of severe drought and extreme drought events has increased in the past 20 years than during the period 1961–1990. The results of this study may serve as a reference point for decision regarding basin water resources management, ecological recovery and drought hazard vulnerability analysis.
相似文献10.
Spatiotemporal variation of meteorological droughts based on the daily comprehensive drought index in the Haihe River basin,China 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Jun He Xiao-Hua Yang Jian-Qiang Li Ju-Liang Jin Yi-Ming Wei Xiao-Juan Chen 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(2):199-217
Meteorological droughts can affect large areas and may have serious environmental, social and economic impacts. These impacts depend on the severity, duration, and spatial extent of the precipitation deficit and the socioeconomic vulnerability of the affected regions. This paper examines the spatiotemporal variation of meteorological droughts in the Haihe River basin. Meteorological droughts events were diagnosed using daily meteorological data from 44 stations by calculating a comprehensive drought index (CI) for the period 1961–2011. Based on the daily CI values of each station over the past 50 years, the drought processes at each station were confirmed, and the severity, duration and frequency of each meteorological drought event were computed and analyzed. The results suggest the following conclusions: (1) the use of the CI index can effectively trace the development of drought and can also identify the duration and severity of each drought event; (2) the average drought duration was 57–85 days in each region of the Haihe River basin, and the region with the highest average values of drought duration and drought severity was Bohai Bay; (3) drought occurred more than 48 times over the study period, which is more than 0.95 times per year over the 50 years studied. The average frequencies of non-drought days, severe drought days and extreme drought days over the study period were 51.2, 3.2 and 0.4 %, respectively. Severe drought events mainly occurred in the south branch of the Hai River, and extreme drought events mainly occurred in the Shandong Peninsula and Bohai Bay; (4) the annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration of the Haihe River basin show decreasing trends over the past 50 years. The frequency of severe drought and extreme drought events has increased in the past 20 years than during the period 1961–1990. The results of this study may serve as a reference point for decision regarding basin water resources management, ecological recovery and drought hazard vulnerability analysis. 相似文献
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为准确评价水文干旱,客观合理地构建干旱指数。以汾河上游的月径流为研究对象,首先从逻辑斯特、正态、对数正态、威布尔分布中选择出最优分布,利用最优分布计算标准径流干旱指数（Standardized Streamflow Drought Index, SSDI）;其次依据标准正态曲线特点对水文干旱事件进行等级划分;最后将标准径流干旱指数与径流Z指数和距平指数进行分析比较,并根据汾河上游实际干旱情况验证标准径流指数的适用性。结果表明:对数正态分布对汾河上游月径流的拟合程度最佳,根据该分布计算得到的指数以及干旱等级与汾河上游历史记载的旱涝情况基本相符;汾河上游不同干旱等级出现频率相对于时间尺度的变化具有稳定性。 相似文献
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为有效应对日益严重的流域干旱问题,有必要开展面向干旱全过程的黄河流域干旱应对系统研究。基于干旱演变过程设计了干旱指数,通过天气预报模型、回归分析等进行干旱、需水与径流预报;设置多年调节水库旱限水位,实现水资源年际补偿;识别洪水和泥沙分期特征,采用分期汛限水位增加洪水资源利用量;建立了梯级水库群协同优化调度模型,调配抗旱水源。算例结果显示:黄河流域干旱应对系统能够平衡年际间的干旱损失以避免重度破坏,与实际情况相比,在重旱的2014年增加抗旱水源22.40亿m^3。建立的干旱应对系统已应用于黄河流域抗旱实践,提升了流域应对干旱的水资源调控能力。 相似文献
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受全球气候变化影响,澜沧江-湄公河流域气象水文干旱发生了较大变化,预测未来流域干旱的时空变化与传播特征是应对气候变化、开展澜湄水资源合作的基础。利用SWAT模型通过气陆耦合方式模拟了澜沧江-湄公河流域历史（1960—2005年）和未来时期（2022—2050年,2051—2080年）的水文过程,采用标准化降水指数和标准化径流指数预估并分析了流域未来气象水文干旱时空变化趋势。结果表明:①澜沧江-湄公河流域未来降水呈增长趋势,气象干旱将有所缓解,但降水年内分配不均与流域蒸发的增加,将导致水文干旱更为严峻,干旱从气象到水文的传播过程加剧;②水文干旱具有明显的空间异质性,允景洪和清盛站的水文干旱最为严重,琅勃拉邦、穆达汉和巴色站次之,万象站最弱;③未来流域水文干旱事件发生频次略有减少,但其中重旱、特旱事件占比增加,极端干旱将趋多趋强,且空间变化更加显著。 相似文献
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为研究实际水利条件下农业干旱的发生规律,简化农业干旱事件的评估方法,提出基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法。通过构建农业用水量距平百分率干旱指标WA,在基于降雨量距平百分率干旱指标PA识别干旱事件的基础上,提取WA干旱指标下的干旱历时和干旱烈度特征变量,并根据以PA为干旱指标的干旱烈度频率分布曲线FS（x）和干旱历时频率分布曲线FD（x）,运用Copula的简化方法计算基于WA的干旱事件重现期T,最后结合基于PA的干旱事件重现期T0,回归分析出T与T0间关系的计算公式。选取干旱灾害影响严重的亳州市为实证区域开展应用研究,计算得到1975-2007年各场干旱事件的T0和T以及T0与T的经验关系式。结果表明:T比T0更合理地反映区域农业实际受旱状况,重现期T0和T间存在高度的相关关系,采用T的回归方程可简化计算考虑区域实际抗旱能力下的干旱事件重现期,在区域防旱减灾实践中具有推广应用价值。 相似文献
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D. W. Myburgh 《GeoJournal》1994,33(4):401-410
The response of farmers to the drought hazard in the Karoo environment. This paper identifies the range of farmers' responses to the drought hazard and seeks to determine whether they are successful in reducing the detrimental effects of drought. Farmers' responses to a survey are analysed within the framework of six response types namely: affecting the cause, modifying the hazard, modifying the loss potential, spreading the losses, planning for losses and bearing the losses. The success of farmers' responses is evaluated individually and cumulatively in terms of their being able to minimize a reduction in farmers' income as a result of drought. Various characteristics of the farmers and their farming enterprise are also examined in relation to the success of measures to mitigate the adverse effects of drought. A major finding is that no specific actions are able to adequately protect them from the detrimental effects of a major drought. 相似文献
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从干旱定义与识别、点干旱频率分析和区域干旱频率分析3个方面系统阐述了干旱频率分析研究进展和存在问题,归纳了适用于干旱频率分析的干旱定义,干旱识别存在的主要问题以及区域干旱频率分析研究的3种途径。提出综合利用研究区域水文气象特性、干旱成因、旱情、旱灾,并结合前期的大气环流条件等信息来描述和识别干旱,重点开展对干旱特征变量的理论分布、干旱事件重现期公式和经验频率公式等基本理论的研究,关注区域干旱频率分析,注重对径流、土壤水、地下水和供水系统的干旱特性分析。 相似文献
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Alsharifa Hind Mohammad Hahn Chul Jung Taleb Odeh Chandrashekhar Bhuiyan Hussam Hussein 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(5):103
This article assesses drought status in the Yarmouk Basin (YB), in northern Jordan, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Water-Level Index (SWI), and the Percent Departure from Normal rainfall (PDNimd) during the years 1993–2014. The results showed that the YB suffers from frequent and irregular periods of drought as variations in drought intensity and frequency have been observed. The SPI results revealed that the highest drought magnitude of ??2.34 appeared at Nuaimeh rainfall station in 1991. This station has also experienced severe drought particularly in years 1995, 1999, 2005, and 2012 with SPI values ranging from ??1.51 to ??1.59. Some other rainfall stations such as Baqura, Ibbin, Khanasiri, Kharja, Mafraq police, Ramtha, Turra, and Umm Qais have also suffered several periods of drought mostly in 1993. The SWI results show the highest extreme drought events in 2001 in Souf well while other extreme drought periods were observed at Wadi Elyabis well in 1994 and at Mafraq well in 1995. As compared to SPI maps, our SWI maps reflect severe and extreme drought events in most years, negatively impacting the groundwater levels in the study area. 相似文献
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干旱作为我国西北地区东部影响最大的气象灾害, 可引起农业减产、水资源短缺、土地荒漠化和生态环境恶化等严重问题.在国家新一轮西部大开发战略实施之初, 在全球气候变暖背景下, 有必要对干旱发展的最新特征和演变趋势进行详细分析研究, 为加强防旱、抗旱,促进经济发展提供科学决策依据和参考.采用国家干旱标准综合干旱指数(CI指数), 利用西北地区东部74个气象代表站逐日气温、降水资料, 分析了西北地区东部不同级别干旱日数在各个季节的时空分布和变化趋势. 结果表明: 在气候变暖背景下, 西北地区东部从长期趋势看, 春、夏、秋季干旱呈加剧趋势, 冬季干旱呈减轻趋势. 21世纪以来春、夏季干旱进一步加剧, 尤其是夏季加剧更显著, 而秋、冬季干旱出现了减弱的新趋势. 在西北地区东部主降水期3-11月重-特旱加剧趋势比轻-中旱加剧显著, 南部干旱化趋势比北部更加明显. 尤其是宁夏同心地区春旱加剧非常显著, 已成为西北地区东部重-特旱最严重的地区.对于干旱发展的这一新动态, 必须引起有关部门的高度重视, 采取科学、有效手段加强防旱、抗旱. 相似文献