共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Attribution of changes in the water balance of a tropical catchment to land use change using the SWAT model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Changes in the water balance of the Samin catchment (277.9 km2) on Java, Indonesia, can be attributed to land use change using the Soil Water Assessment Tool model. A baseline‐altered method was used in which the simulation period 1990–2013 was divided into 4 equal periods to represent baseline conditions (1990–1995) and altered land use conditions (1996–2001, 2002–2007, and 2008–2013). Land use maps for 1994, 2000, 2006, and 2013 were acquired from satellite images. A Soil Water Assessment Tool model was calibrated for the baseline period and applied to the altered periods with and without land use change. Incorporating land use change resulted in a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.7 compared to 0.6 when land use change is ignored. In addition, the model performance for simulations without land use change gradually decreased with time. Land use change appeared to be the important driver for changes in the water balance. The main land use changes during 1994–2013 are a decrease in forest area from 48.7% to 16.9%, an increase in agriculture area from 39.2% to 45.4%, and an increase in settlement area from 9.8% to 34.3%. For the catchment, this resulted in an increase of the runoff coefficient from 35.7% to 44.6% and a decrease in the ratio of evapotranspiration to rainfall from 60% to 54.8%. More pronounced changes can be observed for the ratio of surface runoff to stream flow (increase from 26.6% to 37.5%) and the ratio of base flow to stream flow (decrease from 40% to 31.1%), whereas changes in the ratio of lateral flow to stream flow were minor (decrease from 33.4% to 31.4%). At sub‐catchment level, the effect of land use changes on the water balance varied in different sub‐catchments depending on the scale of changes in forest and settlement area. 相似文献
2.
The present effect of watershed subdivision on simulated water balance components using the thoroughly tested Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been evaluated for the Nagwan watershed in eastern India. Observed meteorological and hydrological data (daily rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and runoff) for the years 1995 to 1998 were collected and used. The watershed and sub‐watershed boundaries, slope and soil texture maps were generated using a geographical information system. A supervised classification method was used for land‐use/cover classification from satellite imagery of 1996. In order to study the effect of watershed subdivision, the watershed was spatially defined into three decomposition schemes, namely a single watershed, and 12 and 22 sub‐watersheds. The simulation using the SWAT model was done for a period of 4 years (1995 to 1998). Results of the study showed a perfect water balance for the Nagwan watershed under all of the decomposition schemes. Results also revealed that the number and size of sub‐watersheds do not appreciably affect surface runoff. Except for runoff, there was a marked variation in the individual components of the water balance under the three decomposition schemes. Though the runoff component of the water balance showed negligible variation among the three cases, variations were noticed in the other components: evapotranspiration (5 to 48%), percolation (2 to 26%) and soil water content (0·30 to 22%). Thus, based on this study, it is concluded that watershed subdivision has a significant effect on the water balance components. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
The delicate balance between human utilization and sustaining its pristine biodiversity in the Mara River basin (MRB) is being threatened because of the expansion of agriculture, deforestation, human settlement, erosion and sedimentation and extreme flow events. This study assessed the applicability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for long‐term rainfall–runoff simulation in MRB. The possibilities of combining/extending gage rainfall data with satellite rainfall estimates were investigated. Monthly satellite rainfall estimates not only overestimated but also lacked the variability of observed rainfall to substitute gage rainfall in model simulation. Uncertainties related to the quality and availability of input data were addressed. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis was reported for alternative model components and hydrologic parameters used in SWAT. Mean sensitivity indices of SWAT parameters in MRB varied with and without observed discharge data. The manual assessment of individual parameters indicated heterogeneous response among sub‐basins of MRB. SWAT was calibrated and validated with 10 years of discharge data at Bomet (Nyangores River), Mulot (Amala River) and Mara Mines (Mara River) stations. Model performance varied from satisfactory at Mara Mines to fair at Bomet and weak at Mulot. The (Nash–Sutcliff efficiency, coefficient of determination) results of calibration and validation at Mara Mines were (0.68, 0.69) and (0.43, 0.44), respectively. Two years of moving time window and flow frequency analysis showed that SWAT performance in MRB heavily relied on quality and abundance of discharge data. Given the 5.5% area contribution of Amala sub‐basin as well as uncertainty and scarcity of input data, SWAT has the potential to simulate the rainfall runoff process in the MRB. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
The pre‐calibrated and validated physically based watershed model, water erosion prediction project (WEPP) was used as a modelling tool for the identification of critical watersheds and evaluation of best management practices for a small hilly watershed (Karso) of India. The land use/cover of the study area was generated using IRS‐1C LISS‐III (linear imaging self scanner) satellite data. The watershed and sub‐watershed boundaries, drainage, slope and soil map of the study area were generated using ARC/INFO geographic information system (GIS). The WEPP model was finally applied to the Karso watershed which lies within Damodar Barakar catchment of India to identify the critical sub‐watersheds on the basis of their simulated average annual sediment yields. Priorities were fixed on the basis of ranks assigned to each critical sub‐watershed based on the susceptibility to erosion. The sub‐watershed having the highest sediment yield was assigned a priority number 1, the next highest value was assigned a priority number 2, and so on. Subsequently, the model was used for evaluating the effectiveness of best management practices (crop and tillage) for conservation of soil for all the sub‐watersheds. On the basis of this study, it is realized that cash crops like soyabean should be encouraged in the upland portion of the sub‐watersheds, and the existing tillage practice (country plough/mould board plough) may be replaced by a field cultivation system for conservation of soil and water in the sub‐watersheds. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
Integrated dynamic water and chloride balance models with a catchment‐scale hydrological model (PRMS) are used to investigate the response of a terminal tropical lake, Lake Abiyata, to climate variability and water use practices in its catchment. The hydrological model is used to investigate the response of the catchment to different climate and land‐use change scenarios that are incorporated into the lake model. Lake depth–area–volume relationships were established from lake bathymetries. Missing data in the time series were filled using statistical regression techniques. Based on mean monthly data, the lake water balance model produced a good agreement between the simulated and observed levels of Lake Abiyata for the period 1968–83. From 1984 onwards the simulated lake level is overestimated with respect to the observed one, while the chloride concentration is largely underestimated. This discrepancy is attributed to human use of water from the influent rivers or directly from the lake. The simulated lake level and chloride concentration are in better agreement with observed values (r2 = 0·96) when human water use for irrigation and salt exploitation are included in the model. A comparison of the simulation with and without human consumption indicates that climate variability controls the interannual fluctuations and that the human water use affects the equilibrium of the system by strongly reducing the lake level. Sensitivity analysis based on a mean climatic year showed that, after prolonged mean climatic conditions, Lake Abiyata reacts more rapidly to an abrupt shift to wetter conditions than to dry conditions. This study shows the significant sensitivity of the level and salinity of the terminal Lake Abiyata to small changes in climate or land use, making it a very good ‘recorder’ of environmental changes that may occur in the catchment at different time scales. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
M. Piniewski M. Szcześniak I. Kardel T. Berezowski T. Okruszko R. Srinivasan 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(8):1266-1289
This paper presents a large-scale application of the SWAT model for water balance and natural streamflow simulation in the entire basins of the Vistula and the Odra, covering most of the territory of Poland. A tailored calibration approach was designed to achieve satisfactory goodness-of-fit across a range of catchment sizes. Model calibration and evaluation driven by high-resolution climate data showed overall good behaviour for 80 benchmark catchments divided into eight clusters, and spatial evaluation for 30 gauges showed that the designed regionalization scheme performed well (median KGE of 0.76). Basin-averaged estimates of blue and green water flow and green water storage estimated using the calibrated model were 185, 517 and 206 mm, respectively. This study provides a basis for future work, such as assessing climate change impacts on hydrology, assessing flow alterations, and water quality simulation. The model output is publicly available through an online research data archive (doi:10.4121/uuid:b8ab4f5f-f692-4c93-a910-2947aea28f42).
EDITOR A. CastellarinASSOCIATE EDITOR G. Thirel 相似文献
7.
Projecting climate change impacts on stream flow regimes with tracer‐aided runoff models ‐ preliminary assessment of heterogeneity at the mesoscale 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 The northern mid‐high latitudes form a region that is sensitive to climate change, and many areas already have seen – or are projected to see – marked changes in hydroclimatic drivers on catchment hydrological function. In this paper, we use tracer‐aided conceptual runoff models to investigate such impacts in a mesoscale (749 km2) catchment in northern Scotland. The catchment encompasses both sub‐arctic montane sub‐catchments with high precipitation and significant snow influence and drier, warmer lowland sub‐catchments. We used downscaled HadCM3 General Circulation Model outputs through the UKCP09 stochastic weather generator to project the future climate. This was based on synthetic precipitation and temperature time series generated from three climate change scenarios under low, medium and high greenhouse gas emissions. Within an uncertainty framework, we examined the impact of climate change at the monthly, seasonal and annual scales and projected impacts on flow regimes in upland and lowland sub‐catchments using hydrological models with appropriate process conceptualization for each landscape unit. The results reveal landscape‐specific sensitivity to climate change. In the uplands, higher temperatures result in diminishing snow influence which increases winter flows, with a concomitant decline in spring flows as melt reduces. In the lowlands, increases in air temperatures and re‐distribution of precipitation towards autumn and winter lead to strongly reduced summer flows despite increasing annual precipitation. The integration at the catchment outlet moderates these seasonal extremes expected in the headwaters. This highlights the intimate connection between hydrological dynamics and catchment characteristics which reflect landscape evolution. It also indicates that spatial variability of changes in climatic forcing combined with differential landscape sensitivity in large heterogeneous catchments can lead to higher resilience of the integrated runoff response. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
Climate change would significantly affect many hydrologic systems, which in turn would affect the water availability, runoff, and the flow in rivers. This study evaluates the impacts of possible future climate change scenarios on the hydrology of the catchment area of the Tunga–Bhadra River, upstream of the Tungabhadra dam. The Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System version 3.4 (HEC‐HMS 3.4) is used for the hydrological modelling of the study area. Linear‐regression‐based Statistical DownScaling Model version 4.2 (SDSM 4.2) is used to downscale the daily maximum and minimum temperature, and daily precipitation in the four sub‐basins of the study area. The large‐scale climate variables for the A2 and B2 scenarios obtained from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 are used. After model calibration and testing of the downscaling procedure, the hydrological model is run for the three future periods: 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099. The impacts of climate change on the basin hydrology are assessed by comparing the present and future streamflow and the evapotranspiration estimates. Results of the water balance study suggest increasing precipitation and runoff and decreasing actual evapotranspiration losses over the sub‐basins in the study area. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
Predicting dry‐season flows with a monthly rainfall–runoff model: Performance for gauged and ungauged catchments 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Hydrologic models are useful to understand the effects of climate and land‐use changes on dry‐season flows. In practice, there is often a trade‐off between simplicity and accuracy, especially when resources for catchment management are scarce. Here, we evaluated the performance of a monthly rainfall–runoff model (dynamic water balance model, DWBM) for dry‐season flow prediction under climate and land‐use change. Using different methods with decreasing amounts of catchment information to set the four model parameters, we predicted dry‐season flow for 89 Australian catchments and verified model performance with an independent dataset of 641 catchments in the United States. For the Australian catchments, model performance without catchment information (other than climate forcing) was fair; it increased significantly as the information to infer the four model parameters increased. Regressions to infer model parameters from catchment characteristics did not hold for catchments in the United States, meaning that a new calibration effort was needed to increase model performance there. Recognizing the interest in relative change for practical applications, we also examined how DWBM could be used to simulate a change in dry‐season flow following land‐use change. We compared results with and without calibration data and showed that predictions of changes in dry‐season flow were robust with respect to uncertainty in model parameters. Our analyses confirm that climate is a strong driver of dry‐season flow and that parsimonious models such as DWBM have useful management applications: predicting seasonal flow under various climate forcings when calibration data are available and providing estimates of the relative effect of land use on seasonal flow for ungauged catchments. 相似文献
10.
Investigation on decreased runoff and driving forces in the water source and water destination catchments is vital to the water resources protection and water supply security assurance. Danjiangkou Reservoir Basin (DRB) and Miyun Reservoir Basin (MRB) are the water source and water destination regions for the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project (MSNWDP) in China. Variations in runoff and driving forces behind these variations during 1960–2005 in the DRB and the MRB were comparatively analyzed and investigated by the climate elasticity method based on the Budyko hypothesis. The results showed that the runoff change process was diagnosed as the same three sub-periods (1960–1979, 1980–1989, and 1990–2005) by the cumulative anomaly analysis. The variations in the runoff exhibited large fluctuations with an overall decreasing trend of ?2.5 mm/year in the DRB and ?1.1 mm/year in the MRB. The variations in average annual runoff among the three sub-periods had significant differences in magnitude and direction. The runoff in the DRB increased by 81.6 mm during 1980–1989, and decreased by 67.1 mm during 1990–2005. However, the decreased runoff in the MRB during 1980–1989 and 1990–2005 were 37.3 and 31.7 mm, respectively. The specific spatio-temporal differences of climate factors (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) and catchment characteristics jointly resulted in the differences of the runoff change. The climate elasticity method revealed that the leading factors to runoff changes in the three sub-periods had significant differences. The climate factors were the leading factors before 1990, however, the human activities became more intensive to be the leading factors after 1999. The relative contributions of climate factors and catchment characteristics to runoff change varied from (88.5%, 8.2%) during 1980–1989 to (30.9%, 73.9%) during 1990–2005 in the DRB. However, in the MRB, the relative contributions were from (51.0%, 48.2%) during 1980–1989 to (?8.0%, 110.0%) during 1990–2005. An effective way to reduce risk is to take the dynamic or elastic water resources management and the differentiated protection measures. In addition, green water management, the water demand management and saving water both in the water source regions and in the water destination regions of the MSNWDP are recommended and persistently advocated to reduce water consumption. 相似文献
11.
The paper presents the outcomes of a study conducted to analyse water resources availability and demand in the Mahanadi River Basin in India under climate change conditions. Climate change impact analysis was carried out for the years 2000, 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100, for the months of September and April (representing wet and dry months), at a sub‐catchment level. A physically based distributed hydrologic model (DHM) was used for estimation of the present water availability. For future scenarios under climate change conditions, precipitation output of Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCM2) was used as the input data for the DHM. The model results show that the highest increase in peak runoff (38%) in the Mahanadi River outlet will occur during September, for the period 2075–2100 and the maximum decrease in average runoff (32·5%) will be in April, for the period 2050–2075. The outcomes indicate that the Mahanadi River Basin is expected to experience progressively increasing intensities of flood in September and drought in April over the considered years. The sectors of domestic, irrigation and industry were considered for water demand estimation. The outcomes of the analysis on present water use indicated a high water abstraction by the irrigation sector. Future water demand shows an increasing trend until 2050, beyond which the demand will decrease owing to the assumed regulation of population explosion. From the simulated future water availability and projected water demand, water stress was computed. Among the six sub‐catchments, the sub‐catchment six shows the peak water demand. This study hence emphasizes on the need for re‐defining water management policies, by incorporating hydrological response of the basin to the long‐term climate change, which will help in developing appropriate flood and drought mitigation measures at the basin level. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
Hydrological footprints of urban developments in the Lake Simcoe watershed,Canada: a combined paired‐catchment and change detection modelling approach 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Urban sprawl and regional climate variability are major stresses on surface water resources in many places. The Lake Simcoe watershed (LSW) Ontario, Canada, is no exception. The LSW is predominantly agricultural but is experiencing rapid population growth because of its proximity to the Greater Toronto area. This has led to extensive land use changes that have impacted its water resources and altered run‐off patterns in some rivers draining to the lake. Here, we use a paired‐catchment approach, hydrological change detection modelling and remote sensing analysis of satellite images to evaluate the impacts of land use change on the hydrology of the LSW (1994 to 2008). Results show that urbanization increased up to 16% in Lovers Creek, the most urban‐impacted catchment. Annual run‐off from Lovers Creek increased from 239 to 442 mm/year in contrast to the reference catchment (Black River at Washago) where run‐off was relatively stable with an annual mean of 474 mm/year. Increased annual run‐off from Lovers Creek was not accompanied by an increase in annual precipitation. Discriminant function analysis suggests that early (1992–1997; pre‐major development) and late (2004–2009; fully urbanized) periods for Lovers Creek separated mainly based on model parameter sets related to run‐off flashiness and evapotranspiration. As a result, parameterization in either period cannot be used interchangeably to produce credible run‐off simulations in Lovers Creek because of greater scatter between the parameters in canonical space. Separation of early and late‐period parameter sets for the reference catchment was based on climate and snowmelt‐related processes. This suggests that regional climatic variability could be influencing hydrologic change in the reference catchment, whereas urbanization amplified the regional natural hydrologic changes in urbanizing catchments of the LSW. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
Implementation of an automatic calibration procedure for HYDROTEL based on prior OAT sensitivity and complementary identifiability analysis 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Médard Bouda Alain N. Rousseau Silvio J. Gumiere Patrick Gagnon Brou Konan Roger Moussa 《水文研究》2014,28(12):3947-3961
Efficiency of hydrological models mostly depends on the quality of the calibration performed prior to use. In this paper, an automatic calibration framework for the distributed hydrological model HYDROTEL is proposed. The calibration procedure was performed for three watersheds characterized with different hydroclimatological conditions: the Sassandra located in Ivory Coast, Africa, and the Montmorency and Beaurivage watersheds located in Quebec (Canada). Results of one‐a‐time (OAT) sensitivity analysis showed that the order of the most sensitive parameters differs for each watershed. Thus, the sensitivity depends on the hydroclimatic and physiographic characteristics of the watersheds. Co‐linearity indices showed that all model parameters were identifiable, that is, none of the studied parameters could be explained by a combination of the other parameters. Following these findings, an automatic calibration was run. Results indicated there was good agreement between simulated and measured streamflows at the outlet of each watershed; Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranging between 0.77 and 0.92 and R2 ranging from 0.87 to 0.97. When comparing NSE and R2 values obtained using a process‐oriented, multiple‐objective, manual calibration strategy, a slight increase in model efficiency was reached with the automatic calibration procedure (4.15% for NSE and 2.95% for R2) improving predictions of peak flows for the Montmorency and Beaurivage watersheds (temperate climate conditions) and flows beyond the rainfall season in the Sassandra watershed. The proposed automatic calibration procedure introduced in this paper may be applied to other distributed hydrological model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
14.
A spatially distributed model for the assessment of land use impacts on stream temperature in small urban watersheds 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Stream temperatures in urban watersheds are influenced to a high degree by changes in landscape and climate, which can occur at small temporal and spatial scales. Here, we describe a modelling system that integrates the distributed hydrologic soil vegetation model with the semi‐Lagrangian stream temperature model RBM. It has the capability to simulate spatially distributed hydrology and water temperature over the entire network at high time and space resolutions, as well as to represent riparian shading effects on stream temperatures. We demonstrate the modelling system through application to the Mercer Creek watershed, a small urban catchment near Bellevue, Washington. The results suggest that the model was able to produce realistic streamflow and water temperature predictions that are consistent with observations. We use the modelling construct to characterize impacts of land use change and near‐stream vegetation change on stream temperatures and explore the sensitivity of stream temperature to changes in land use and riparian vegetation. The results suggest that, notwithstanding general warming as a result of climate change over the last century, there have been concurrent increases in low flows as a result of urbanization and deforestation, which more or less offset the effects of a warmer climate on stream temperatures. On the other hand, loss of riparian vegetation plays a more important role in modulating water temperatures, in particular, on annual maximum temperature (around 4 °C), which could be mostly reversed by restoring riparian vegetation in a fairly narrow corridor – a finding that has important implications for management of the riparian corridor. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
Potential hydrological impacts of climate change on long‐term water balances were analysed for Harp Lake and its catchment. Harp Lake is located in the boreal ecozone of Ontario, Canada. Two climate change scenarios were used. One was based on extrapolation of long‐term trends of monthly temperature and precipitation from a 129‐year data record, and another was based on a Canadian general circulation model (GCM) predictions. A monthly water balance model was calibrated using 26 years of hydrological and meteorological data, and the model was used to calculate hydrological impact under two climate change scenarios. The first scenario with a warmer and wetter climate predicted a smaller magnitude of change than the second scenario. The first scenario showed an increase in evaporation each month, an increase in catchment runoff in summer, fall and winter, but a decrease in spring, resulting in a slight increase in lake level. Annual runoff and lake level would increase because the precipitation change overrides evaporation change. The second scenario with a warmer, drier climate predicted a greater change, and indicated that evaporation would increase each month, runoff would increase in many months, but would decrease in spring, causing the lake level to decrease slightly. Annual runoff and lake level would decrease because evaporation change overrides precipitation change. In both scenarios, the water balance changes in winter and spring are pronounced. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
Changes in hydrology and streamflow as predicted by a modelling experiment forced with climate models 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Changes in precipitation and temperature have direct effects on crop water use, water stress, crop yield, evapotranspiration, water nutrient dynamics and other indicators. This study, built on a modelling framework with the Soil and Watershed Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Raccoon River Watershed in central Iowa, a typical US Midwestern agricultural watershed, examines the watershed response to changes in meteorological inputs from an ensemble of ten global climate models under the A1B scenario. Changes in climate were directly applied to observations (the delta change method) assuming that the estimates of climate change are reliable even if the simulated current climate may be biased. The ensemble average for the mid‐century (1946–1965) predicted 0.7% increase in daily precipitation (monthly variation from ?11.3% to +19.5%) and 2.78 °C increase in average temperature over the entire watershed. These predictions were translated through a well‐calibrated SWAT modelling setup into 22% decrease in snowfall, 16% decrease in surface runoff, 18% decrease in baseflow, 8% increase in evapotranspiration and 17% decrease in total water yield. The spatial impact at the subwatershed level revealed a wide variation (but no defined trend) with decrease in water yield that ranged from 10% to 23%. Flow near the watershed outlet (Van Meter, Iowa) is expected to decline by 17% on an average annual basis with the highest impact occurring during summer months with a maximum 39% reduction in August. Changes in climate were found to have a clear and significant impact signal of decreasing streamflow at the watershed outlet with far‐reaching implication for drinking water supplies for the central Iowa communities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
Evapotranspiration is resilient in the face of land cover and climate change in a humid temperate catchment 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Stephen K. Hamilton M. Z. Hussain Christopher Lowrie B. Basso G. P. Robertson 《水文研究》2018,32(5):655-663
In temperate humid catchments, evapotranspiration returns more than half of the annual precipitation to the atmosphere, thereby determining the balance available to recharge groundwaters and support stream flow and lake levels. Changes in evapotranspiration rates and, therefore, catchment hydrology could be driven by changes in land use or climate. Here, we examine the catchment water balance over the past 50 years for a catchment in southwest Michigan covered by cropland, grassland, forest, and wetlands. Over the study period, about 27% of the catchment has been abandoned from row‐crop agriculture to perennial vegetation and about 20% of the catchment has reverted to deciduous forest, and the climate has warmed by 1.14 °C. Despite these changes in land use, the precipitation and stream discharge, and by inference catchment‐scale evapotranspiration, have been stable over the study period. The remarkably stable rates of evapotranspirative water loss from the catchment across a period of significant land cover change suggest that rainfed annual crops and perennial vegetation do not differ greatly in evapotranspiration rates, and this is supported by measurements of evapotranspiration from various vegetation types based on soil water monitoring in the same catchment. Compensating changes in the other meteorological drivers of evaporative water demand besides air temperature—wind speed, atmospheric humidity, and net radiation—are also possible but cannot be evaluated due to insufficient local data across the 50‐year period. Regardless of the explanation, this study shows that the water balance of this landscape has been resilient in the face of both land cover and climate change over the past 50 years. 相似文献
18.
Many current watershed modeling efforts now incorporate surface water and groundwater for managing water resources since the exchanges between groundwater and surface water need a special focus considering the changing climate. The influence of groundwater dynamics on water and energy balance components is investigated in the Snake River Basin (SRB) by coupling the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and MODFLOW models (VIC‐MF) for the period of 1986 through 2042. A 4.4% increase in base flows and a 10.3% decrease in peak flows are estimated by VIC‐MF compared to the VIC model in SRB. The VIC‐MF model shows significant improvement in the streamflow simulation (Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE] of 0.84) at King Hill, where the VIC model could not capture the effect of spring discharge in the streamflow simulation (NSE of ?0.30); however, the streamflow estimates show an overall decreasing trend. Two climate scenarios representing median and high radiative‐forcings such as representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 show an average increase in the water table elevations between 2.1 and 2.6 m (6.9 and 8.5 feet) through the year 2042. The spatial patterns of these exchanges show a higher groundwater elevation of 15 m (50 feet) in the downstream area and a lower elevation of up to 3 m (10 feet) in the upstream area. Broadly, this study supports results of previous work demonstrating that integrated assessment of groundwater‐surface water enables stakeholders to balance pumping, recharge and base flow needs and to manage the watersheds that are subjected to human pressures more sustainably. 相似文献
19.
Impacts of changing climate on the hydrology and hydropower production of the Tagus River basin 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Anastasia Lobanova Hagen Koch Stefan Liersch Fred F. Hattermann Valentina Krysanova 《水文研究》2016,30(26):5039-5052
The Tagus River basin is an ultimately important water source for hydropower production, urban and agricultural water supply in Spain and Portugal. Growing electricity and water supply demands, over‐regulation of the river and construction of new dams, as well as large inter‐basin and intra‐basin water transfers aggravated by strong natural variability of climate in the catchment, have already imposed significant pressures on the river. The substantial reduction of discharge is observed already now, and projected climatic change is expected to alter the water budget of the catchment further.In this study, we address the effects of projected climate change on the water resources availability in the Tagus River basin and influence of potential changes on hydropower generation of the three important reservoirs in the basin. The catchment‐scale, process‐based eco‐hydrological model soil and water integrated model was set up, calibrated and validated for the entire Tagus River basin, taking into account 15 large reservoirs in the catchment. The future climate projections were selected from those generated within the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. They include five bias‐corrected climatic datasets for the region, obtained from global circulation model runs under two emissions scenario – moderate and extreme ones – and covered the whole century. The results show a strong agreement among model runs in projecting substantial decrease of discharge of the Tagus River discharge and, consequently, a strong decrease in hydropower production under both future climate scenarios. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
Jaepil Cho David Bosch George Vellidis Richard Lowrance Timothy Strickland 《水文研究》2013,27(12):1691-1700
Simulation of watershed scale hydrologic and water quality processes is important for watershed assessments. Proper characterization of the accuracy of these simulations, particularly in cases with limited observed data, is critical. The Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is frequently used for watershed scale simulation. The accuracy of the model was assessed by extrapolating calibration results from a well studied Coastal Plain watershed in Southwest Georgia, USA, to watersheds within the same geographic region without further calibration. SWAT was calibrated and validated on a 16.7‐km2 subwatershed within the Little River Experimental Watershed by varying six model parameters. The optimized parameter set was then applied to a watershed of similar land use and soils, a smaller watershed with different land use and soils and three larger watersheds within the same drainage system without further calibration. Simulation results with percent bias (PB) ±15% ≤ PB < ±25% and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) 0.50 < NSE ≤ 0.65 were considered to be satisfactory, whereas those with PB < ±10% and 0.75 < NSE ≤ 1.00 were considered very good. With these criteria, simulation results for the five non‐calibration watersheds were satisfactory to very good. Differences across watersheds were attributed to differences in soils, land use, and surficial aquifer characteristics. These results indicate that SWAT can be a useful tool for predicting streamflow for ungauged watersheds with similar physical characteristics to the calibration watershed studied here and provide an indication of the accuracy of hydrologic simulations for ungauged watersheds. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献