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1.
Debris flows have caused enormous losses of property and human life in Taiwan during the last two decades. An efficient and reliable method for predicting the occurrence of debris flows is required. The major goal of this study is to explore the impact of the Chi‐Chi earthquake on the occurrence of debris flows by applying the artificial neural network (ANN) that takes both hydrological and geomorphologic influences into account. The Chen‐Yu‐Lan River watershed, which is located in central Taiwan, is chosen for evaluating the critical rainfall triggering debris flows. A total of 1151 data sets were collected for calibrating model parameters with two training strategies. Significant differences before and after the earthquake have been found: (1) The size of landslide area is proportioned to the occurrence of debris flows; (2) the amount of critical rainfall required for triggering debris flows has reduced significantly, about half of the original critical rainfall in the study case; and (3) the frequency of the occurrence of debris flows is largely increased. The overall accuracy of model prediction in testing phase has reached 96·5%; moreover, the accuracy of occurrence prediction is largely increased from 24 to 80% as the network trained with data from before the Chi‐Chi earthquake sets and with data from the lumped before and after the earthquake sets. The results demonstrated that the ANN is capable of learning the complex mechanism of debris flows and producing satisfactory predictions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
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3.
Wildfires represent one of the largest disturbances in watersheds of the Intermountain West. Yet, we lack models capable of predicting post-wildfire impacts on downstream ecosystems and infrastructure. Here we present a novel modeling framework that links new and existing models to simulate the post-wildfire sediment cascade, including spatially explicit predictions of debris flows, storage of debris flow sediment within valleys, delivery of debris flow sediment to active channels, and the downstream routing of sediment through river networks. We apply the model to sediment dynamics in Clear Creek watershed following the 2010 Twitchell Canyon Fire in the Tushar Mountains of southern Utah. The debris flow generation model performed well, correctly predicting 19 out of 20 debris flows from the largest catchments, with only four false positives and two false negatives at observed rainfall intensities. In total, the model predicts the occurrence of 160 post-wildfire debris flows across the Clear Creek watershed, generating more than 650 000 m3 of sediment. Our new storage and delivery model predicts the vast majority of this sediment is stored within valleys, and only 13% is delivered to the river network. The sediment routing model identifies numerous sediment bottlenecks within the network, which alter transport dynamics and may be hotspots for aggradation and aquatic habitat alteration. The volume of sediment exported from the watershed after seven years of simulation totals 17% of that delivered, or 2% of the total generated debris flow sediment. In the case of the Twitchell Canyon Fire, this highlights that significant post-wildfire sediment volumes can be stored in valleys (87%) and within the stream network (11%). Finally, we discuss useful insights that can be gleaned from the model framework, as well as the limitations and need for more monitoring and theory development in order to better constrain essential inputs, process rates, and morphodynamics. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
In many Alpine catchments the monitoring and hazard mitigation of debris‐flow events require enormous economic and social resources. To confront these problems, a subjective estimation of the most hazardous zones of the basin could be useful in the best, sustainable planning of protective measures. In this paper, a new methodology is proposed that develops a Management Priority Index (MPI) to rank sediment source areas by their quantitative capability to deliver debris‐flow volumes to a point of interest within the catchment. The MPI sets the intervention priority based on a combination of three sub‐indicators: a susceptibility indicator evaluating the overall catchment predisposition to generate debris flow, a triggering indicator and a volume budget indicator assessing the rate of deliverable volume to a selected outlet. MPI was applied to the basin of the Rio Gadria catchment (Venosta Valley, Bolzano, Italy), an alpine basin with an unlimited sediment supply that is characterized by multiple, very active, shallow landslides and bare soil zones. The proposed ranking method was successfully verified using post‐event surveys and through evidence from consolidation check dams built over many years in the basin. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Landslide erosion is a dominant hillslope process and the main source of stream sediment in tropical, tectonically active mountain belts. In this study, we quantified landslide erosion triggered by 24 rainfall events from 2001 to 2009 in three mountainous watersheds in Taiwan and investigated relationships between landslide erosion and rainfall variables. The results show positive power‐law relations between landslide erosion and rainfall intensity and cumulative rainfall, with scaling exponents ranging from 2·94 to 5·03. Additionally, landslide erosion caused by Typhoon Morakot is of comparable magnitude to landslide erosion caused by the Chi‐Chi Earthquake (MW = 7·6) or 22–24 years of basin‐averaged erosion. Comparison of the three watersheds indicates that deeper landslides that mobilize soil and bedrock are triggered by long‐duration rainfall, whereas shallow landslides are triggered by short‐duration rainfall. These results suggest that rainfall intensity and watershed characteristics are important controls on rainfall‐triggered landslide erosion and that severe typhoons, like high‐magnitude earthquakes, can generate high rates of landslide erosion in Taiwan. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Debris flows generated from landslides are common processes and represent a severe hazard in mountain regions due to their high mobility and impact energy. We investigate the dynamics and the rheological properties of a 90 000 m3 debris‐flow event triggered by a rapid regressive landslide with high water content. Field evidence revealed a maximum flow depth of 7–8 m, with an estimated peak discharge of 350–400 m3 s?1. Depositional evidence and grain‐size distribution of the debris pose the debris flow in an intermediate condition between the fluid‐mud and grain‐flow behaviour. The debris‐flow material has silt–clay content up to 15 per cent. The rheological behaviour of the finer matrix was directly assessed with the ball measuring system. The measurements, performed on two samples at 45–63 per cent in sediment concentration by volume, gave values of 3·5–577 Pa for the yield strength, and 0·6–27·9 Pa s for the viscosity. Based on field evidence, we have empirically estimated the yield strength and viscosity ranging between 4000 ± 200 Pa, and 108–134 Pa s, respectively. We used the Flo‐2D code to replicate the debris‐flow event. We applied the model with rheological properties estimated by means of direct measurements and back‐analyses. The results of these models show that the rheological behaviour of a debris‐flow mass containing coarse clasts can not be assessed solely on the contribution of the finer matrix and thus neglecting the effects of direct grain contacts. For debris flows composed by a significant number of coarse clasts a back‐analysis estimation of the rheological parameters is necessary to replicate satisfactorily the depositional extent of debris flows. In these cases, the back‐estimated coefficients do not adequately describe the rheological properties of the debris flow. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Intense precipitation or seismic events can generate clustered mass movement processes across a landscape. These rare events have significant impacts on the landscape, however, the rarity of such events leads to uncertainty in how they impact the entire geomorphic system over a range of timescales. Taiwan is steep, tectonically active, and prone to landslide and debris flows, especially when exposed to heavy rainfall events. Typhoon Morakot made landfall in Taiwan in August of 2009, causing widespread landslides in southern Taiwan. The south to north trend in valley relief in southern Taiwan leads to spatial variability in landslide susceptibility providing an opportunity to infer the long‐term impact of such landslide events on channel morphology. We use pre‐ and post‐typhoon imagery to quantify the propagating impact of this event on channel width as the debris is routed through the landscape. The results show the importance of cascading hazards from landslides on landscape evolution based on patterns of channel width (both pre‐ and post‐typhoon) and hillslope gradients in 20 basins along strike in southern Taiwan. Prior to Typhoon Morakot, the river channels in the central part of the study area were about 3–10 times wider than the channels in the south. Following the typhoon, aggradation and widening was also a maximum in these central to northern basins where hillslope gradients and channel steepness is high, accentuating the pre‐typhoon pattern. The results further show that the narrowest channels are located where channel steepness is the lowest, an observation inconsistent with a detachment‐limited model for river evolution. We infer this pattern is indicative of a strong role of sediment supply, and associated landslide events, on long‐term channel evolution. These findings have implications across a range of spatial and temporal scales including understanding the cascade of hazards in steep landscapes and geomorphic interpretation of channel morphology. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
The purpose of this study is to analyze variability in rainfall threshold for debris flow （critical rainfall for debris flow triggering） after the ML 7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake in central Taiwan in 1999. Two study sites with different geological conditions were surveyed in the earthquake area. Streambed surveys were conducted to continuously monitor debris flows between 1999 and 2006. During the 7-year study period, every debris flow event was identified, and the streambed characterized. Results show that the rainfall threshold for debris flow was remarkably lower just after the Chi-Chi Earthquake, but gradually recovered. To date, this rainfall threshold is still lower than the original level prior to the earthquake. This variability in rainfall threshold is closely related to the mount of sediment material in the initiation area of debris flow, which increased rapidly due to landslides resulting from the earthquake. With the increase in sediment material, the rainfall threshold was lowered severely during the first year following the Chi-Chi earthquake. However, heavy rainfalls mobilized the sediment material, causing debris flows and transporting sediment downstream. With the decrease in sediment material, the rainfall threshold recovered gradually over time. Furthermore, debris flows occurred only in the subbasins that had sufficient sediment material to cause significant movement. Hence, these results confirm that the sediment material in the initiation area of debris flow is a crucial component of the rainfall threshold for debris flow.  相似文献   

9.
A new method to predict the runout of debris flows is presented. A data base of documented sediment‐transporting events in torrent catchments of Austria, Switzerland and northern Italy has been compiled, using common classification techniques. With this data we test an empirical approach between planimetric deposition area and event volume, and compare it with results from other studies. We introduce a new empirical relation to determine the mobility coefficient as a function of geomorphologic catchment parameters. The mobility coefficient is thought to reflect some of the flow properties during the depositional part of the debris‐flow event. The empirical equations are implemented in a geographical information system (GIS) based simulation program and combined with a simple flow routing algorithm, to determine the potential runout area covered by debris‐flow deposits. For a given volume and starting point of the deposits, a Monte‐Carlo technique is used to produce flow paths that simulate the spreading effect of a debris flow. The runout zone is delineated by confining the simulated potential spreading area in the down slope direction with the empirically determined planimetric deposition area. The debris‐flow volume is then distributed over the predicted area according to the calculated outflow probability of each cell. The simulation uses the ARC‐Objects environment of ESRI© and is adapted to run with high resolution (2·5 m × 2·5 m) digital elevation models, generated for example from LiDAR data. The simulation program called TopRunDF is tested with debris‐flow events of 1987 and 2005 in Switzerland. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Landslides and debris flows associated with forest harvesting can cause much destruction and the influence of the timing of harvesting on these mass wasting processes therefore needs to be assessed in order to protect aquatic ecosystems and develop improved strategies for disaster prevention. We examined the effects of forest harvesting on the frequency of landslides and debris flows in the Sanko catchment (central Japan) using nine aerial photo periods covering 1964 to 2003. These photographs showed a mosaic of different forest ages attributable to the rotational management in this area since 1912. Geology and slope gradient are rather uniformly distributed in the Sanko catchment, facilitating assessment of forest harvesting effects on mass wasting without complication of other factors. Trends of new landslides and debris flows correspond to changes in slope stability explained by root strength decay and recovery; the direct impact of clearcutting on landslide occurrence was greatest in forest stands that were clearcut 1 to 10 yr earlier with progressively lesser impacts continuing up to 25 yr after harvesting. Sediment supply rate from landslides in forests clearcut 1 to 10 yr earlier was about 10‐fold higher than in control sites. Total landslide volume in forest stands clearcut 0 to 25 yr earlier was 5·8 × 103 m3 km?2 compared with 1·3 × 103 m3 km?2 in clearcuts >25 yr, indicating a fourfold increase compared with control sites during the period when harvesting affected slope stability. Because landslide scars continue to produce sediment after initial failure, sediment supply from landslides continues for 45 yr in the Sanko catchment. To estimate the effect of forest harvesting and subsequent regeneration on the occurrence of mass wasting in other regions, changes in root strength caused by decay and recovery of roots should be investigated for various species and environmental conditions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Post-fire debris flows represent one of the most erosive consequences associated with increasing wildfire severity and investigations into their downstream impacts have been limited. Recent advances have linked existing hydrogeomorphic models to predict potential impacts of post-fire erosion at watershed scales on downstream water resources. Here we address two key limitations in current models: (1) accurate predictions of post-fire debris flow volumes in the absence of triggering storm rainfall intensities and (2) understanding controls on grain sizes produced by post-fire debris flows. We compiled and analysed a novel dataset of depositional volumes and grain size distributions (GSDs) for 59 post-fire debris flows across the Intermountain West (IMW) collected via fieldwork and from the literature. We first evaluated the utility of existing models for post-fire debris flow volume prediction, which were largely developed for Southern California. We then constructed a new post-fire debris flow volume prediction model for the IMW using a combination of Random Forest modelling and regression analysis. We found topography and burn severity to be important variables, and that the percentage of pre-fire soil organic matter was an essential predictor variable. Our model was also capable of predicting debris flow volumes without data for the triggering storm, suggesting that rainfall may be more important as a presence/absence predictor, rather than a scaling variable. We also constructed the first models that predict the median, 16th percentile, and 84th percentile grain sizes, as well as boulder size, produced by post-fire debris flows. These models demonstrate consistent landscape controls on debris flow GSDs that are related to land cover, physical and chemical weathering, and hillslope sediment transport processes. This work advances our ability to predict how post-fire sediment pulses are transported through watersheds. Our models allow for improved pre- and post-fire risk assessments across diverse ranges of watersheds in the IMW.  相似文献   

12.
Mass exchange between debris flow and the bed plays a vital role in debris flow dynamics. Here a depth‐averaged two‐phase model is proposed for debris flows over erodible beds. Compared to previous depth‐averaged two‐phase models, the present model features a physical step forward by explicitly incorporating the mass exchange between the flow and the bed. A widely used closure model in fluvial hydraulics is employed to estimate the mass exchange between the debris flow and the bed, and an existing relationship for bed entrainment rate is introduced for comparison. Also, two distinct closure models for the bed shear stresses are evaluated. One uses the Coulomb friction law and Manning's equation to determine the solid and fluid resistances respectively, while the other employs an analytically derived formula for the solid phase and the mixing length approach for the fluid phase. A well‐balanced numerical algorithm is applied to solve the governing equations of the model. The present model is first shown to reproduce average sediment concentrations in steady and uniform debris flows over saturated bed as compared to an existing formula underpinned by experimental datasets. Then, it is demonstrated to perform rather well as compared to the full set of USGS large‐scale experimental debris flows over erodible beds, in producing debris flow depth, front location and bed deformation. The effects of initial conditions on debris flow mass and momentum gain are resolved by the present model, which explicitly demonstrates the roles of the wetness, porosity and volume of bed sediments in affecting the flow. By virtue of extended modeling cases, the present model produces debris flow efficiency that, as revealed by existing observations and empirical relations, increases with initial volume, which is enhanced by mass gain from the bed. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
The main purpose of this study is to develop a new type of artificial neural network based model for constructing a debris flow warning system. The Chen‐Eu‐Lan river basin, which is located in Central Taiwan, is assigned as the study area. The creek is one of the most well‐known debris flow areas where several damaging debris flows have been reported in the last two decades. The hydrological and geological data, which might have great influence on the occurrence of debris flows, are first collected and analysed, then, the shared near neighbours neural network (SNN + NN) is presented to construct the debris flow warning system for the watershed. SNN is an unsupervised learning method that has the advantage of dealing with non‐globular clusters, besides presenting computational efficiency. By using SNN, the compiled hydro‐geological data set can easily and meaningfully be clustered into several categories. These categories can then be identified as ‘occurrence’ or ‘no‐occurrence’ of debris flows. To improve the effectiveness of the debris flow warning system, a neural network framework is designed to connect all the clusters produced by the SNN method, whereas the connected weights of the network are adjusted through a supervised learning method. This framework is used and its applicability and practicability for debris flow warning are investigated. The results demonstrate that the proposed SNN + NN model is an efficient and accurate tool for the development of a debris flow warning system. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Channels that have been scoured to bedrock by debris flows provide unique opportunities to calculate the rate of sediment and wood accumulation in low‐order streams, to understand the temporal succession of channel morphology following disturbance, and to make inferences about processes associated with input and transport of sediment. Dendrochronology was used to estimate the time since the previous debris flow and the time since the last stand‐replacement fire in unlogged basins in the central Coast Range of Oregon. Debris flow activity increased 42 per cent above the background rate in the decades immediately following the last wildfire. Changes in wood and sediment storage were quantified for 13 streams that ranged from 4 to 144 years since the previous debris flow. The volume of wood and sediment in the channel, and the length of channel with exposed bedrock, were strongly correlated with the time since the previous debris flow. Wood increased the storage capacity of the channel and trapped the majority of the sediment in these steep headwater streams. In the absence of wood, channels that have been scoured to bedrock by a debris flow may lack the capacity to store sediment and could persist in a bedrock state for an extended period of time. With an adequate supply of wood, low‐order channels have the potential of storing large volumes of sediment in the interval between debris flows and can function as one of the dominant storage reservoirs for sediment in mountainous terrain. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
The advance of technology has led to more competent countermeasures, but lives and properties still continue to suffer from water‐induced disasters, such as floods, landslides, and debris flows. To increase the effectiveness of counter systems, improved methods of planning and designing such systems are prerequisite. This paper describes briefly a methodological approach for predicting debris flow characteristics, and proposes techniques for evaluating and improving the mitigative effectiveness of check dams against debris flows in steep mountain torrents. Additionally, a non‐dimensional parameter, namely potential storage volume, is introduced to generalize the evaluation processes. As an example, the 1999 debris‐flow event in the San Julian River, Venezuela, is chosen for discussion. The paper also proposes a method of evaluating the control function of a series of check dams as well as the criteria for the selection of their sizes, numbers and locations. It is hoped that this work will help to determine which combinations of check dams will fit best together for the optimal control of debris flows and available resources in any river basin. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Sediments produced by landslides are crucial in the sediment yield of a catchment, debris flow forecasting, and related hazard assessment. On a regional scale, however, it is difficult and time consuming to measure the volumes of such sediment. This paper uses a LiDAR‐derived digital terrain model (DTM) taken in 2005 and 2010 (at 2 m resolution) to accurately obtain landslide‐induced sediment volumes that resulted from a single catastrophic typhoon event in a heavily forested mountainous area of Taiwan. The landslides induced by Typhoon Morakot are mapped by comparison of 25 cm resolution aerial photographs taken before and after the typhoon in an 83.6 km2 study area. Each landslide volume is calculated by subtraction of the 2005 DTM from the 2010 DTM, and the scaling relationship between landslide area and its volume are further regressed. The relationship between volume and area are also determined for all the disturbed areas (VL = 0.452AL1.242) and for the crown areas of the landslides (VL = 2.510AL1.206). The uncertainty in estimated volume caused by use of the LiDAR DTMs is discussed, and the error in absolute volume estimation for landslides with an area >105 m2 is within 20%. The volume–area relationship obtained in this study is also validated in 11 small to medium‐sized catchments located outside the study area, and there is good agreement between the calculation from DTMs and the regression formula. By comparison of debris volumes estimated in this study with previous work, it is found that a wider volume variation exists that is directly proportional to the landslide area, especially under a higher scaling exponent. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
Extreme rainfall in June 1949 and November 1985 triggered numerous large debris flows on the steep slopes of North Fork Mountain, eastern West Virginia. Detailed mapping at four sites and field observations of several others indicate that the debris flows began in steep hillslope hollows, propagated downslope through the channel system, eroded channel sediment, produced complex distributions of deposits in lower gradient channels, and delivered sediment to floodwaters beyond the debris-flow termini. Based on the distribution of deposits and eroded surfaces, up to four zones were identified with each debris flow: an upper failure zone, a middle transport/erosion zone, a lower deposition zone, and a sediment-laden floodwater zone immediately downstream from the debris-flow terminus. Geomorphic effects of the debris flows in these zones are spatially variable. The initiation of debris flows in the failure zones and passage through the transport/erosion zones are characterized by degradation; 2300 to 17 000 m3 of sediment was eroded from these zones. The total volume of channel erosion in the transport/erosion zones was 1·3 to 1·5 times greater than the total volume of sediment that initially failed, indicating that the debris flows were effective erosion agents as they travelled through the transport/erosion zones. The overall response in the deposition zones was aggradation. However, up to 43 per cent of the sediment delivered to these zones was eroded by floodwaters from joining tributaries immediately after debris-flow deposition. This sediment was incorporated into floodwaters downstream from the debris-flow termini causing considerable erosion and deposition in these channels. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Abstract The Chi‐chi earthquake (MS = 7.7), which occurred in September 1999, seriously damaged central Taiwan. Approximately 2 years later (July 2001), the Toraji typhoon brought a heavy rainstorm (650 mm rain/day) and triggered widespread landslides in central Taiwan and parts of eastern Taiwan. Approximately 10 000 Chi‐chi earthquake‐induced landslides and 6000 Toraji typhoon‐related mass movements were delineated in an area of 2400 km2 using Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre (SPOT; French earth resource satellite) images. The landslide distribution could be closely related to the distribution of peak ground acceleration registered during the Chi‐chi earthquake. The study area was composed of Tertiary sedimentary and metamorphic rocks, whose age and induration increased eastward. The earthquake‐induced landslides were mostly distributed in the region between the Chelungpu Fault and the Lishan Fault to the east, whereas they were few in the region east of the Lishan Fault. The Toraji typhoon in 2001 severely damaged both regions that had been shattered by the Chi‐chi earthquake in 1999. The occurrence of earthquake‐induced landslides can be correlated with epicentral distance, and their occurrence has more influence from the rock type than from the ground motion.  相似文献   

19.
The geomorphological characteristics of small debris flows in a maritime sub‐Antarctic environment are described. The morphological and sedimentological characteristics of the debris flows are comparable to debris flows documented for other parts of the world; their initiation appears closely linked to the unusual environment in which they are found. Sediment supply is generated by diurnal frost heave of loamy sediment associated with Azorella selago. The debris flows are triggered by sediment mobilization upon saturation of the frost‐heaved surface gravel and overland flow over the low‐permeability and frost‐susceptible slope materials. Morphological effects of the flows are short‐lived due to obliteration by subsequent frost heave activity. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Landsliding induced by earthquakes and rainstorms in montane regions is not only a sculptor for shaping the landscape, but also a driver for delivering sediments and above‐ground biomass downstream. However, the terrain attributes of earthquake‐ and rainstorm‐induced landslides are less discussed comprehensively in Taiwan. As part of an island‐wide inventory, we here compare and contrast the landslide terrain attributes resulting from two catastrophic events: the Chi‐Chi earthquake (M w = 7.6, September 1999) and typhoon Morakot (rainfall >2500 mm, August 2009). Results show that the earthquake‐induced landslides are relatively small, round‐shaped and prone to occur primarily in middle and toe of slopes. In contrast, the rainstorm‐induced landslides are larger, horseshoe‐shaped and preferentially occurring in slope toes. Also, earthquake‐induced landslides, particularly large landslides, are usually found at steeper gradients, whereas rainstorm‐induced landslides aggregate at gradients between 25° and 40°. Lithologic control plays a secondary role in landsliding. From an island‐wide perspective, high landslide density locates in the region of earthquake intensity ≥ VI or one‐day rainfall ≥600 mm day?1. Through the landslide patterns and their terrain attributes, our retrospective approach sheds light on accessing the historical and remote events for close geophysical investigations. Finally, we should bear in mind that the landslide location, size, and terrain attributes varying with triggers may affect the landscape evaluation or biogeochemical processes in landslide‐dominated regions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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