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1.
Uncertainties in regional climate change prediction: a regional analysis of ensemble simulations with the HADCM2 coupled AOGCM 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
We analyze ensembles (four realizations) of historical and future climate transient experiments carried out with the coupled
atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, version HADCM2,
with four scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) and sulfate forcing. The analysis focuses on the regional scale, and in particular
on 21 regions covering all land areas in the World (except Antarctica). We examine seasonally averaged surface air temperature
and precipitation for the historical period of 1961–1990 and the future climate period of 2046–2075. Compared to previous
AOGCM simulations, the HADCM2 model shows a good performance in reproducing observed regional averages of summer and winter
temperature and precipitation. The model, however, does not reproduce well observed interannual variability. We find that
the uncertainty in regional climate change predictions associated with the spread of different realizations in an ensemble
(i.e. the uncertainty related to the internal model variability) is relatively low for all scenarios and regions. In particular,
this uncertainty is lower than the uncertainty due to inter-scenario variability and (by comparison with previous regional
analyses of AOGCMs) with inter-model variability. The climate biases and sensitivities found for different realizations of
the same ensemble were similar to the corresponding ensemble averages and the averages associated with individual realizations
of the same ensemble did not differ from each other at the 5% confidence level in the vast majority of cases. These results
indicate that a relatively small number of realizations (3 or 4) is sufficient to characterize an AOGCM transient climate
change prediction at the regional scale.
Received: 12 January 1998 / Accepted: 7 July 1999 相似文献
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利用ＩＡＰＧＣＭ２５年的积分结果,系统分析了模式的１、７月月平均气候,并与观测资料、ＯＳＵＧＣＭ和其它大气环流模式的模拟结果作了比较,所比较的变量包括大气基本变量即海平面气压、表面气温和降水以及与流场、加热场和水汽场有关的诸多变量。结果表明,模式成功地模拟出各种大气变量的分布特征,大多数变量的模拟结果要优于ＯＳＵＧＣＭ,从而证实模式对１、７月月平均气候有较好的模拟能力,特别是由于ＩＡＰＧＣＭ与ＯＳＵＧＣＭ两模式物理过程十分相似,这一结果还进一步证实了ＩＡＰＧＣＭ动力框架和计算方案的优良性能。模拟的主要误差包括南极槽偏浅、冰雪区表面气温偏高以及主要降雨区雨量偏大等,同时还分析了模拟误差的可能原因,提出了改进模式的一些设想。此外,计算并比较分析了模式中动量、感热和水汽的经向输送。 相似文献
4.
检验评估气候模式，有利于发挥这一客观预测方法在新疆气候预测业务中的应用效果，提高新疆气候预测能力。基于欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代季节预测系统SEAS5模式的历史回报数据和新疆98个气象站的气温、降水观测资料，利用距平符号一致率Pc、趋势异常综合评分Ps、距平相关系数ACC、时间相关系数TCC等方法，综合评估了SEAS5模式对新疆1993—2019年月尺度气温和降水的预测性能。结果表明：SEAS5模式对新疆月气温、降水的总体预测性能较好，对降水趋势和量级有一定的预测能力。模式的预测性能存在明显的月际差异和空间差异。模式对新疆4—9月气温和4月、6—8月降水的预测性能较好。气温预测评分中，4月Pc最高（61.3分），7月Ps最高（74.4分），6月ACC最高（0.17）。降水预测评分中，4月Pc最高（58.7分），7月Ps最高（72.1分），4月ACC最高（0.16）。空间分布上，模式对1月、3月、6月和12月南疆的气温预测性能普遍高于北疆，对7月和9月南疆西部的预测性能低于其他地区。模式对南疆的降水预测性能普遍高于北疆。 相似文献
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Indirect radiative forcing and climatic effect of the anthropogenic nitrate aerosol on regional climate of China 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
The regional climate model (RegCM3) and a tropospheric atmosphere chemistry model (TACM)
were coupled, thus a regional climate chemistry modeling system (RegCCMS) was constructed, which was
applied to investigate the spatial distribution of anthropogenic nitrate aerosols, indirect radiative
forcing, as well as its climatic effect over China. TACM includes the thermodynamic equilibrium model
ISORROPIA and a condensed gas-phase chemistry model. Investigations show that the concentration of
nitrate aerosols is relatively high over North and East China with a maximum of 29 μg m-3 in
January and 8 μg m-3 in July. Due to the influence of air temperature on thermodynamic
equilibrium, wet scavenging of precipitation and the monsoon climate, there are obvious seasonal
differences in nitrate concentrations. The average indirect radiative forcing at the tropopause due
to nitrate aerosols is -1.63 W m-2 in January and -2.65 W m-2 in July, respectively.
In some areas, indirect radiative forcing reaches $-$10 W m-2. Sensitivity tests show that
nitrate aerosols make the surface air temperature drop and the precipitation reduce on the national
level. The mean changes in surface air temperature and precipitation are -0.13 K and -0.01 mm d-1
in January and -0.09 K and -0.11 mm d-1 in July, respectively, showing significant differences
in different regions. 相似文献
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将区域气候模式（RegCM3）与对流层大气化学模式（TACM）耦合, 建立区域气候化学模拟系统（RegCCMS）, 用以模拟研究中国地区黑碳气溶胶的空间分布、 第一间接辐射强迫及其气候效应。利用RegCCMS模式对2003年1月和7月进行模拟, 结果表明, 我国黑碳气溶胶主要集中在四川、 河北、 山东等地, 1月份浓度最高值中心在四川, 达到4 μg·m-3; 而在7月则出现在华中地区, 高值中心值为3.5 μg·m-3。地面浓度的季节差异不是很明显。1月和7月由黑碳气溶胶所造成的第一间接辐射强迫全国平均值分别为-0.389 W·m-2和-1.18 W·m-2, 局部地区达到-4～-4.5 W·m-2。敏感性试验结果表明, 考虑黑碳气溶胶的第一间接气候效应后, 使得近地面气温下降, 降水减少, 1月变化的平均值分别为-0.025K和-0.0027 mm·d-1, 7月变化的平均值分别为-0.16K和-0.095 mm·d-1, 在不同季节和地区, 气温和降水的变化存在明显差异。 相似文献
7.
A Local Climate Model (LCM) is described that can provide a high-resolution (10 km) simulation of climate resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. A canonicalregression function is used to compute the monthly temperature (mean of daily-maximum-temperature) and precipitation for any point, given a set of predictor variables. Predictor variables represent the influence of terrain, sea-surface temperature (SST), windfields, CO2 concentration, and solar radiation on climate. The canonical-regression function is calibrated and validated using empirical windfield, SST, and climate data from stations in the western U.S. To illustrate an application of the LCM, the climate of northern and central California is simulated for a doubled CO2 (600 ppmv) and a control scenario (300 ppmv CO2). Windfields and SSTs used to compute predictor variables are taken from general circulation model simulations for these two scenarios. LCM solutions indicate that doubling CO2 will result in a 3 C° increase in January temperature, a 2 C° increase in July temperature, a 16 mm (37%) increase in January precipitation, and a 3 mm (46%) increase in July precipitation. 相似文献
8.
本文讨论了华东地区18个气象台站1954—1983年1月和7月份海平面气压、气温及降水场的综合经验正交函数(即特征向量)。分析结果表明:由3个气候变量场求得的特征向量能比较好地描述气候特征。 相似文献
9.
采用全国160站1951—2009年月降水和气温资料,分析了短期气候预测业务评分办法中六级要素概率时空分布特征,并以1月、7月为代表获得了不同地区、不同级别降水和气温异常发生频率。结果表明:降水和气温的六级异常分布存在显著空间不均匀性和年代际变化特征,1980—2009年,北方降水在1月出现特少、特多等级和7月出现特少、偏少等级的概率较大,南方降水出现6个等级的概率基本相同;全国气温在1月和7月出现正常略低、正常略高和偏高等级的概率较大。1980—2009年与1951—1979年相比,全国1月降水为特多、偏多等级和7月降水为偏少等级的站数明显增加,全国1月气温为正常略高、偏高和特高等级的站数明显增加,呈明显的年代际变化特征。 相似文献
10.
应用观测资料对中国地区预估数据集进行检验分析。结果表明:1)7月降水量,区域模式在张家口南部桑洋河盆地和北部坝上地区的模拟值偏大,而在北京东边兴隆高山区和东南沿海地区的模拟值明显偏小。2)7月最高气温,在北京东边兴隆高山区和东部平原的模拟值明显偏高,而在张家口南部桑洋河盆地和太行山东侧的模拟值偏低。3)1月最低气温,在北京东边兴隆高山区、太行山北段高山区和东部平原地区的模拟值偏高,而在张家口南部桑洋河盆地和太行山东侧的模拟值偏低。4)无论是对降水还是气温,由于全球模式的空间分辨率偏低、很难描述河北地区的地形特征,所以模拟结果很差。由于区域气候模式的分辨率提高、对河北地区地形特征的描述有了改进,所以模拟效果有明显改善;但受分辨率所限,它对局部地形如兴隆高山、桑洋河盆地、太行山北部高山等地形特征的描述不是很好,造成模拟结果在这些地区出现系统性偏差,因此应用这些数据时需加以订正。 相似文献
11.
B. Ashraf R. Yazdani M. Mousavi-Baygi M. Bannayan 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,118(1-2):35-46
The aim of this research is to study the spatial and temporal variability of aridity in Iran, through analysis of temperature and precipitation trends during the 48-year period of 1961–2008. In this study, four different aridity criteria have been used to investigate the aridity situation. These aridity indexes included Lang’s index or rain factor, Budyko index or radiational index of dryness, UNEP aridity index, and Thornthwaite moisture index. The results of the analysis indicated that the highest and lowest mean temperatures occurred in July and January respectively in all locations. Among the study locations, Ahvaz with 37.1 °C and Kermanshah with 20.2 °C has the highest and lowest in July. For January, the highest was 12.4 °C for Ahvaz and the lowest was ?4.5 °C for Hamedan and Kermanshah together. The range of monthly mean temperature of study locations indicated that the maximum and minimum difference between day and night temperatures, almost in all study locations, occurred in September and January, respectively, and the highest and lowest fluctuation of temperature was observed in Kerman and Tehran. The temperature anomalies showed that the most significant increasing temperature occurred at the beginning of twenty-first century (2000–2008) in all locations. The long-term mean of monthly rainfall showed that, in most study locations, the maximum and minimum of mean precipitation occurred in winter and summer, respectively. Rasht with 1,355 mm had the highest and Yazd with 55 mm had the lowest of total precipitation compared with other locations. According to precipitation anomalies, all locations experienced dry and wet periods, but generally dry periods occurred more often especially in the beginning of twenty-first century. According to applied different aridity indexes, all the study locations often experienced semi-arid to arid climate, severe water deficit to desert climate, arid to hyperarid climate, and semi-arid climate during the study period. 相似文献
12.
该文简要介绍了国家气候中心短期气候预测模式系统的研发成果,并侧重于从海洋资料同化系统、陆面资料同化系统、月动力延伸预测模式系统、季节气候预测模式系统4个方面介绍了第2代短期气候预测模式系统的业务化进展。第2代海洋资料同化系统已初步建成,其对温盐的同化效果总体上优于第1代同化系统;陆面资料同化系统正在研发中,目前已完成其中的多源降水融合子系统的业务建设工作,可为陆面分量提供实时的大气降水强迫分析场;第2代月动力延伸预测系统基于国家气候中心大气环流模式BCC_AGCM2.2建立,已于2012年8月进入准业务运行阶段;第2代季节预测模式系统基于国家气候中心气候系统模式BCC_CSM1.1(m) 建立,将于2013年底投入准业务运行。初步评估表明:第2代月动力延伸预测模式系统和季节气候预测模式系统分别对候、旬、月和季节、年际时间尺度的气候变率体现出了一定的预测能力,其对降水、气温、环流等要素的预测技巧总体上要高于第1代预测系统。 相似文献
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Wang Huijun 《大气科学进展》1994,11(3):319-326
ＭｏｄｅｌｌｉｎｇｔｈｅＪａｎｕａｒｙａｎｄＪｕｌｙＣｌｉｍａｔｅｏｆ９０００ＹｅａｒｓｂｅｆｏｒｅＰｒｅｓｅｎｔ￥ＷａｎｇＨｕｉｊｕｎ（王会军）（ＬＡＳＧ，ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＡｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒｉｃＰｈｙｓｉｃｓ，ＣｈｉｎｅｓｅＡｃａｄｅｍｙｏｆ... 相似文献
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An analysis of climate change for global domain and for the European/Mediterranean region between the two periods, 1961–1990 (representing the twentieth century or “present” climate) and 2041–2070 (representing future climate), from the three-member ensemble of the EH5OM climate model under the IPCC A2 scenario was performed. Ensemble averages for winter and summer seasons were considered, but also intra-ensemble variations and the change of interannual variability between the two periods. First, model systematic errors are assessed because they could be closely related to uncertainties in climate change. A strengthening of westerlies (zonalization) over the northern Europe is associated with an erroneous increase in MSLP over the southern Europe. This increase in MSLP is related to a (partial) suppression of summer convective precipitation. Global warming in future climate is relatively uniform in the upper troposphere and it is associated with a 10% wind increase in the subtropical jet cores. However, spatial irregularities in the low-level temperature signal single out some regions as particularly sensitive to climate change. For Europe, the largest near-surface temperature increase in winter is found over its north-eastern part (more than 3°C), and the largest summer warming (over 3.5°C) is over south Europe. For south Europe, the increase in temperature averages is almost an order of magnitude larger than the increase in interannual variability. The magnitude of the warming is larger than the model systematic error, and the spread among the three model realisations is much smaller than the magnitude of climate change. This further supports the significance of estimated future temperature change. However, this is not the case for precipitation, implying therefore larger uncertainties for precipitation than for temperature in future climate projections. 相似文献
16.
利用干对流发生时大气层之间质量交换应满足守恒性原理, 改进了p-σ区域气候模式中的干对流调整方案。该方案同时调整温度、比湿和风场。利用1979~1995年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料月平均场作为初始场和侧边界强迫, 模拟1月和7月的气候特征,并用t检验和F检验方法检验敏感试验和控制试验模拟结果差异的显著性。结果表明, 无论是1月还是7月, 敏感试验与控制试验出现干对流调整的区域均一致, 但敏感试验各区域发生干对流调整的次数均比控制试验多。7月各个物理量场的差异均比1月显著。两试验模拟7月比湿场和降水量场的均值差异不明显, 而方差差异比较显著;温度场和风场的均值差异和方差差异均比较显著。敏感试验在20°N~35°N纬度带内对7月500 hPa风场的模拟有了比较明显的改进。在对7月总降水量场的模拟方面, 敏感试验在新疆北部、内蒙古中部呼和浩特一带、吉林东部以及湖北和广东地区有比较好的模拟效果, 基本消除了控制试验中的虚假大值区。 相似文献
17.
中国冬季地温场变化特征及与夏季降水场的关系 总被引：9，自引：8，他引：9
利用我国141个测站1980－1997年间12月－2月3.2m深度地温资料和中国160个测站1951－1997年间6－8月降水资料，采用主成分、旋转主成分分析，对冬季地温的空间异常特征、时间变化规律以及与夏季降水的关系进行分析。结果表明：未旋转的前3个载荷向量场可以较好地反映中国冬季地温整体异常结构，即全区一致的高温或低温；东西相反的东高（低）西低（高）型；南北相反南高（低）北低（高）型。旋转后的前4个载荷向量场可较好地代表中国冬季地温的4个主要异常敏感区：北方区、淮河区、西北区和江南区。旋转主分量和代表站资料反映出90年代以来西北区、华南区冬季地温呈下降趋势，北方区、淮河区、江南区呈明显上升趋势。当北方冬季地温偏高时，有利于7月黄河以北大部分地方降水偏多；当淮河区冬季地温偏高时，有利于7月江淮流域降水偏多，而使黄河以北、长江以南降水偏少；当西北区冬季地温偏高时，有利于7月江淮流域降水偏少；当江南冬季地温偏高时，有利于7月四川－云南南部降水偏多。 相似文献
18.
Quantitative reconstructions of the mean July temperature and annual precipitation are performed based on pollen percentage contents from surface and stratum pollen samples, together with vertical meteorological observations across 700-2800 m in Dajiuhu, Shennongjia in Hubei Province of China. Canonical correspondence analysis and robust locally weighted regression of surface pollen samples are employed to investigate the relationship between plants and climate, and to build the seven pollen-climate response surface functions.Reconstructed results of the stable type assemblage exhibit the climate evolution since the Late-Glacial Period, including the Bálling-Allerád warm episode, Younger Dryas cold episode, Climatic Optimum, and cold events in 8 and 6.5 ka BP. The ranges of the mean July temperature and annual precipitation have been about 5°C and 300 mm since the Late-Glacial Period. Analysis of temperature and humidity reveals that Climatic Optimum with high temperature and precipitation occurred during early Holocene and former
mid-Holocene, corresponding to the high resolution records in the low latitude region. The results indicate that the pollen-climate response surface functions are capable to valuate the comprehensive influence of temperature and precipitation on pollen content and can be used to reconstruct the past climate from pollen data. 相似文献
19.
High resolution simulations of January and July climate over the western Alpine region with a nested Regional Modeling system 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
M. R. Marinucci F. Giorgi M. Beniston M. Wild P. Tschuck A. Ohmura A. Bernasconi 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1995,51(3):119-138
Summary High resolution January and July present day climatologies over the central-western Alpine region are simulated with a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) nested within a General Circulation Model (GCM). The RegCM was developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and is run at 20 km grid point spacing. The model is driven by output from a present day climate simulation performed with the GCM ECHAM3 of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) at T106 resolution (~ 120 km). Five January and July simulations are conducted with the nested RegCM and the results for surface air temperature and precipitation are compared with a gridded observed dataset and a dataset from 99 observing stations throughout the Swiss territory. The driving ECHAM3 simulation reproduces well the position of the northeastern Atlantic jet, but underestimates the jet intensity over the Mediterranean. Precipitation over the Alpine region in the ECHAM3 simulation is close to observed in January but lower than observed in July. Compared to the driving GCM, the nested RegCM produces more precipitation in both seasons, mostly as a result of the stronger model orographic forcing. Average RegCM temperature over the Swiss region is 2–3 degrees higher than observed, while average precipitation is within 30% of observed values. The spatial distribution of precipitation is in general agreement with available gridded observations and the model reproduces the observed elevation dependency of precipitation in the summer. In the winter the simulated elevation of maximum precipitation amounts is lower than observed. Precipitation frequencies are overestimated, while precipitation intensities show a reasonable agreement with observations, especially in the winter. Sensitivity experiments with different cumulus parameterizations, soil moisture initialization and model topography are discussed. Overall, the model performance at the high resolution used here did not deteriorate compared to previous lower resolution experiments.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.With 11 Figures 相似文献
20.
在Version 2的基础上,对短波辐射方案进行进一步的改进:引入了新增非灰体气体吸收效应、冰晶粒子形状效应和尺度效应以及云的不均匀性效应(称为Version 3)。数值模拟试验结果表明:Version 3能更好地模拟出全球冬、夏季的降水场、海平面气压场及地表气温场的主要分布特征,并且能相当准确地反映出这几个场的季节性变化特征。Version 3对这3个场的模拟能力明显优于原版本(Version 1)。此外,它对东亚地区的季风降雨具有很好的模拟能力,能较好地反映东亚区域降水的季节性变化。可见,Version 3为进一步研究云-辐射相互作用提供了很好的模式基础。本工作还清楚地表明,模式的进一步发展必须进行对相关物理过程中各个因子的更精确刻画,只有这样,模式才能得到更好的模拟能力。 相似文献