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1.
In the first part of this paper an overview is given about governmental scientific projects related to the Mediterranean Sea in Italy. The focus of the projects will be on the nearshore and coastal zone. Examples of projects dealing with lagoons are presented. Some case studies are outlined. The second part of the paper deals with a historical view on the management of the Venice Lagoon as an example representing importance of human intervention. This part includes the interventions of the Venetian Republic diverting rivers that were discharging into the lagoon until the last projects to tame the floodings of the city of Venice.  相似文献   

2.
Vehicle trajectory modelling is an essential foundation for urban intelligent services. In this paper, a novel method, Distant Neighbouring Dependencies (DND) model, has been proposed to transform vehicle trajectories into fixed-length vectors which are then applied to predict the final destination. This paper defines the problem of neighbouring and distant dependencies for the first time, and then puts forward a way to learn and memorize these two kinds of dependencies. Next, a destination prediction model is given based on the DND model. Finally, the proposed method is tested on real taxi trajectory datasets. Results show that our method can capture neighbouring and distant dependencies, and achieves a mean error of 1.08 km, which outperforms other existing models in destination prediction significantly.  相似文献   

3.
An iterative solution to the non-linear 3-D electromagnetic inverse problem is obtained by successive linearized model updates using the method of conjugate gradients. Full wave equation modelling for controlled sources is employed to compute model sensitivities and predicted data in the frequency domain with an efficient 3-D finite-difference algorithm. Necessity dictates that the inverse be underdetermined, since realistic reconstructions require the solution for tens of thousands of parameters. In addition, large-scale 3-D forward modelling is required and this can easily involve the solution of over several million electric field unknowns per solve. A massively parallel computing platform has therefore been utilized to obtain reasonable execution times, and results are given for the 1840-node Intel Paragon. The solution is demonstrated with a synthetic example with added Gaussian noise, where the data were produced from an integral equation forward-modelling code, and is different from the finite difference code embedded in the inversion algorithm  相似文献   

4.
The use of the concept of entropy in the analysis of population concentrations is explored. A model is developed and applied to data for Rome and Venice, Italy. Both long-term (100 years) and short-term (20 years) trends are considered, and differences between the urban network development in the two areas are examined. (summary in ENG, FRE)  相似文献   

5.
We present a record of Holocene environmental change on the east coast of Korea, inferred using pollen, carbon-isotopic composition (??13C), total organic carbon, total sulfur, carbon/nitrogen ratios, particle size analysis and major element geochemistry in a sediment core from Soonpogae Lagoon. A multi-proxy paleoenvironmental approach had not previously been applied in Korea and allowed us to reconstruct climate and vegetation change, sea-level rise, lagoon development, and human impact on the east coast of Korea over the last 8,000?years. Evidence from Soonpogae Lagoon supports the following three conclusions: (1) As a drying trend prevailed on the east coast of Korea after ~5,900?cal?yr BP, chemical weathering weakened and herbaceous plants became more important than during the previous humid phase (Holocene Climate Optimum), (2) Sea-level rise on the east coast slowed dramatically about 6,800?cal?yr BP, resulting in low rates of sedimentation in Soonpogae Lagoon, and (3) Soonpogae Lagoon was almost completely isolated from the sea by sand barriers when human impact intensified ~2,100 BP.  相似文献   

6.
ABSTRACT

Spatial information of land values is fundamental for planners and policy makers. Individual appraisals are costly, explaining the need for predictive modelling. Recent work has investigated using Space Syntax to analyse urban access and explain land values. However, the spatial dependence of urban land markets has not been addressed in such studies. Further, the selection of meaningful variables is commonly conducted under non-spatialized modelling conditions. The objective of this paper is to construct a land value map using a geostatistical approach using Space Syntax and a spatialized variable selection. The methodology is applied in Guatemala City. We used an existing dataset of residential land value appraisals and accessibility metrics. Regression-kriging was used to conduct variable selection and derive a model for spatial prediction. The prediction accuracy is compared with a multivariate regression. The results show that a spatialized variable selection yields a more parsimonious model with higher prediction accuracy. New insights were found on how Space Syntax explains land value variability when also modelling the spatial dependence. Space Syntax can contribute with relevant spatialized information for predictive land value modelling purposes. Finally, the spatial modelling framework facilitates the production of spatial information of land values that is relevant for planning practice.  相似文献   

7.
大尺度水循环模拟系统不确定性研究进展   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
水循环过程受众多自然因素和人为因素影响,决定了水循环系统的变化性和复杂性。水循环系统模型作为研究流域水文循环过程及演变规律的重要工具,必然也存在较大的不确定性,特别是对于大尺度陆-气耦合下的水循环模拟系统,其不确定性来源包括输入和参数不确定性、结构不确定性、方法不确定性以及初始和边界条件不确定性。本文在分析不确定性量化方法和传统水文模型不确定性研究基础上,重点评述当前大尺度水循环系统模拟的不确定性研究进展和存在的瓶颈问题,并介绍一种针对大型复杂动力系统的不确定性量化解决方案和工具系统-PSUADE,基于此讨论PSUADE在大尺度水循环模拟系统不确定性量化过程中的优势。  相似文献   

8.
We present a semi-analytical solution to the 2-D forward modelling of viscoelastic relaxation in a heterogeneous model consisting of eccentrically nested spheres. Several numerical methods for 2-D and 3-D viscoelastic relaxation modelling have been applied recently, including finite-element and spectral-finite-difference schemes. The present semi-analytical approach provides a model response against which more general numerical algorithms can be validated. The eccentrically nested sphere solution has been tested by comparing it with the analytical solutions for viscoelastic relaxation in a homogeneous sphere and in two concentrically nested spheres, and good agreement was obtained.  相似文献   

9.
We have monitored and analyzed, through remote sensing and ancillary field surveys, the rapid (O(1) year) development of a tidal network within a newly established artificial salt marsh in the Venice Lagoon. After the construction of the salt marsh, a network of volunteer creeks established themselves away from an artificially constructed main channel (with mean and maximum annual headward-growth rates of 11 m/yr and 18 m/yr, respectively). The rapid formation of this system of tidal creeks provides a unique opportunity to test the reliability of a model of tidal network initiation and development, previously proposed by the authors. The restored marsh presents the characteristics of a controlled environment analogous to a large-scale field laboratory, as it allows comparison of the morphologic features of real and simulated network structures under the reasonable assumption of neglecting accretion and deposition processes over the timescales of observation. Our results compare favorably with observational evidence, showing that the model proves reasonably capable of reproducing the main features of the actual channel-network patterns. The model reproduces statistical network characteristics of eco-morphodynamic and hydrodynamic relevance and captures the dominant modes of the network-incision process.  相似文献   

10.
Mapping floods is important for policy makers to make timely decisions in regards to emergency responses and future planning. It is therefore crucial to develop a rapid inundation modelling framework to map flood inundation. This study develops an airborne scanning laser altimetry(Li DAR) digital elevation model(DEM) based Rapid flood Inundation Modelling framework(Li DAR-RIM) for assessment of inundation extent, depth, volume and duration for flood events. The modelling framework has been applied to the mid-Murrumbidgee region in the southeast Murray-Darling Basin, Australia for two flood events occurred in December 2010 and March 2012. The inundation extents estimated using this methodology compared well to those obtained from two Landsat ETM+ images, demonstrating suitability and applicability of this method. For testing possibility of larger area application, the framework also uses 30-m resolution shuttle radar topography mission(SRTM)-DEM to replace Li DAR-DEM for the same modelling. The inundation extents obtained by using the SRTM-DEM are smaller than those obtained using the Li DAR-DEM, especially for large flood events. A possible reason is that the river cross sections obtained from the SRTM-DEM are not accurate enough for inundation modelling. The Li DAR-RIM has an advantage for process modelling and scenario modelling under future climatic conditions.  相似文献   

11.
Summary. Numerical modelling is one of the most efficient methods for an investigation of the relationship between structural features and peculiarities of observed wavefields. It is practically the only method for 2-D and 3-D inhomogeneous media.
An algorithm based on ray theory has been developed for calculations of travel times and amplitudes of seismic waves in 3-D inhomogeneous media with curved interfaces. It was applied for numerical modelling of kinematic and dynamic characteristics of seismic waves propagating in laterally inhomogeneous media.
Travel-time and amplitude patterns were studied in the 2-D and 3-D models of a geosyncline, in which velocity distribution was given by an analytical function of the coordinates. For a more complicated model representing a subducting high-velocity lithospheric plate in a transition zone between oceanic and continental upper mantle, the velocity distribution was given by discrete values on a 2-D non-rectangular grid. It was shown that when a source was placed above the lithospheric plate, a shadow zone appeared along a strike of the structure, i.e. in the direction which is perpendicular to a strong lateral velocity gradient. Travel-time residuals were calculated along the seismological profile for a 3-D velocity distribution in the upper mantle beneath Central Asia, obtained as a result of inversion of travel times by the Backus-Gilbert method. They were found to be in a good agreement with the observed data.  相似文献   

12.
Summary. Moment tensor inversion methods can be applied with success in the determination of source properties of simple earthquakes. However, these methods utilize the assumption of a point source, which is inadequate for modelling many complicated, shallow earthquakes. For complex earthquakes, an inversion using finite faulting models is desirable but the number of parameters involved requires that a good starting model be found or that independent constraints be placed on some of the parameters. A method is presented for low-pass filtering both the data and Green's functions, passing only signals with wavelengths greater than the dimension of the entire fault. The filter tends to smooth complications in the waveforms and allows application of the point source moment tensor inversion. This method is applied to body waves from the 1978 Thessaloniki, Greece, earthquake, the 1971 San Fernando earthquake and to a multiple-point source synthetic model of the San Fernando event. For the Thessaloniki event, although a multiple-source mechanism has been suggested, inversion results before and after filtering were essentially identical, indicating that a point source mechanism is sufficient in modelling the long-period, teleseismic body waves. In the case of the San Fernando earthquake, the point source Green's functions were incapable of simultaneously modelling the P - and SH -waves. Inversion of P -waves alone resulted in extreme parameter resolution problems, but allowed constraint in one axis of the moment tensor and suggested an overall source time function. Inversion of a synthetic San Fernando data set yielded similar results, but allowed an investigation of the shortcomings of the method under controlled circumstances. Although the results may require substantial interpretation, the method presented represents a simple first step in the analysis of complex earthquakes.  相似文献   

13.
The Kirchhoff-Helmholtz (KH) integration has been used to model the reflected and the diving waves from an interface with a positive velocity gradient. The modelling is carried out for a spherical boundary and for a sinusoidal topography with a long-scale wavelength.
An artefact, which is a major problem in modelling the seismic response using the KH integration, has been reduced by introducing a Hilbert transform sign manipulation. Cleaner synthetic seismograms with correct amplitudes have been produced by this method. A discretization in larger surface elements has been made possible by introducing a smoothing factor that suppresses the noise that normally follows the constructed signal if a large element size is taken.  相似文献   

14.
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15.
During the last two decades, a variety of models have been applied to understand and predict changes in land use. These models assign a single-attribute label to each spatial unit at any particular time of the simulation. This is not realistic because mixed use of land is quite common. A more detailed classification allowing the modelling of mixed land use would be desirable for better understanding and interpreting the evolution of the use of land. A possible solution is the multi-label (ML) concept where each spatial unit can belong to multiple classes simultaneously. For example, a cluster of summer houses at a lake in a forested area should be classified as water, forest and residential (built-up). The ML concept was introduced recently, and it belongs to the machine learning field. In this article, the ML concept is introduced and applied in land-use modelling. As a novelty, we present a land-use change model that allows ML class assignment using the k nearest neighbour (kNN) method that derives a functional relationship between land use and a set of explanatory variables. A case study with a rich data-set from Luxembourg using biophysical data from aerial photography is described. The model achieves promising results based on the well-known ML evaluation criteria. The application described in this article highlights the value of the multi-label k nearest neighbour method (MLkNN) for land-use modelling.  相似文献   

16.
Projections of changes in glacier mass balance caused by climate changes involve modelling present mass balance in terms of climate and then perturbing the climate variables to calculate future mass balance. The simplest model involves linear regression of mass balance time series on temperature and precipitation data at stations close to the glacier but we prefer the degree-day model. This model uses temperature and precipitation to calculate snow accumulation, snow and ice melting, and possible refreezing of meltwater at regular altitude intervals on a glacier. Model parameters are still somewhat uncertain and are established for individual glaciers by tuning the model mass balance as a function of altitude to fit observed data. The model has been applied to 37 glaciers in different parts of the world so far and some details are given for Storglaciären to illustrate the approach. The sensitivity of modelled mass balance to a +1°C temperature increase shows a wide range for the 37 glaciers from about 0.1 to 1.3 m water a−1 . Sub-polar glaciers have lower temperature sensitivities, and maritime and tropical glaciers have higher sensitivities.  相似文献   

17.
A 3-D finite element model (Feflow) has been used for regional groundwater flow modelling of Upper Chaj Doab in Indus Basin, Pakistan. The thematic layers of soils, landuse, hydrology, infrastructure and climate were developed using Geographic Information System (GIS). The numerical groundwater flow model is developed to configure the groundwater equipotential surface, hydraulic head gradient and estimation of the groundwater budget of the aquifer. Integration of GIS with groundwater modelling and satellite remote sensing capabilities has provided an efficient way of analysing and monitoring groundwater status and its associated land conditions. The Arcview GIS software is used as additive tool to develop supportive data for numerical groundwater modelling, integration and presentation of image processing and modelling results.
The groundwater behaviour of the regional model shows a gradual decline in watertable from year 1999 onward. The persistent dry condition and high withdrawal rates play an influential role in lowering down the groundwater levels. Different scenarios were developed to study the impact of extreme climatic conditions (drought/flood) and variable groundwater abstraction on the regional groundwater system. The results of the study provide useful information regarding the behaviour of aquifer in order to organize management schemes on local and regional basis to monitor future groundwater development in the area.  相似文献   

18.
We have formulated a 3-D inverse solution for the magnetotelluric (MT) problem using the non-linear conjugate gradient method. Finite difference methods are used to compute predicted data efficiently and objective functional gradients. Only six forward modelling applications per frequency are typically required to produce the model update at each iteration. This efficiency is achieved by incorporating a simple line search procedure that calls for a sufficient reduction in the objective functional, instead of an exact determination of its minimum along a given descent direction. Additional efficiencies in the scheme are sought by incorporating preconditioning to accelerate solution convergence. Even with these efficiencies, the solution's realism and complexity are still limited by the speed and memory of serial processors. To overcome this barrier, the scheme has been implemented on a parallel computing platform where tens to thousands of processors operate on the problem simultaneously. The inversion scheme is tested by inverting data produced with a forward modelling code algorithmically different from that employed in the inversion algorithm. This check provides independent verification of the scheme since the two forward modelling algorithms are prone to different types of numerical error.  相似文献   

19.
Visual exposure modelling establishes the extent to which a nominated feature may be seen from a specified location. The advent of high-resolution light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-sourced elevation models has enabled visual exposure modelling to be applied in urban regions, for example, to calculate the field of view occupied by a landmark building when observed from a nearby street. Currently, visual exposure models access a single surface elevation model to establish the lines of sight (LoSs) between the observer and the landmark feature. This is a cause for concern in vegetated areas where trees are represented as solid protrusions in the surface model totally blocking the LoSs. Additionally, the observer's elevation, as read from the surface model, would be incorrectly set to the tree top height in those regions. The research presented here overcomes these issues by introducing a new visual exposure model, which accesses a bare earth terrain model, to establish the observer's true elevation even when passing through vegetated regions, a surface model for the city profile and an additional vegetation map. Where there is a difference between terrain and surface elevations, the vegetation map is consulted. In vegetated areas the LoS is permitted to continue its journey, either passing under the canopy with clear views or partially through it depending on foliage density, otherwise the LoS is terminated. This approach enables landmark visual exposure to be modelled more realistically, with consideration given to urban trees. The model's improvements are demonstrated through a number of real-world trials and compared to current visual exposure methods.  相似文献   

20.
GIS以其强大的空间数据存储、处理和分析功能已经广泛地应用于众多工程模型的建模和计算中。FVCOM模型对复杂地形岸界适应性好,同时又可以更好地保证质量的守恒性,是理想的近海岸水动力计算模型。以渤海的水动力计算为例,基于两者的耦合,提出了GIS支持下的近海岸水动力模拟计算前处理的空间数据管理、自动剖分网格和数据自动提取的方法,提高了建模、调试和前处理的效率。后处理使用了NetCDF和Geodatabase空间数据库格式存储多维计算结果数据,对渤海潮流和温盐的计算结果进行了验证和分析。计算结果表明,GIS耦合模型的使用能够方便模型数据的处理,大大提高模型的建模效率,清晰和生动地表达计算结果,反映了模拟研究区域的物理特性,对近海环境管理决策提供了数据和理论的决策支持。  相似文献   

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