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1.
This paper presents results from a simulation of climate changes in the 19th–21st centuries with the Institute of Numerical Mathematics Climate Model Version 4 (INMCM4) in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5). Like the previous INMCM3 version, this model has a low sensitivity of 4.0 K to a quadrupling of CO2 concentration. Global warming in the model by the end of the 21st century is 1.9 K for the RCP4.5 scenario and 3.4 K for RCP8.5. The spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation changes driven by the enhanced greenhouse effect is similar to that derived from the INMCM3 model data. In the INMCM4 model, however, the heat flux to the ocean and sea-level rise caused by thermal expansion are roughly 1.5 times as large as those in the INMCM3 model under the same scenario. A decrease in sea-ice extent and a change in heat fluxes and meridional circulation in the ocean under global warming, as well as some aspects of natural climate variability in the model, are considered.  相似文献   

2.
The INMCM5.0 numerical model of the Earth’s climate system is presented, which is an evolution from the previous version, INMCM4.0. A higher vertical resolution for the stratosphere is applied in the atmospheric block. Also, we raised the upper boundary of the calculating area, added the aerosol block, modified parameterization of clouds and condensation, and increased the horizontal resolution in the ocean block. The program implementation of the model was also updated. We consider the simulation of the current climate using the new version of the model. Attention is focused on reducing systematic errors as compared to the previous version, reproducing phenomena that could not be simulated correctly in the previous version, and modeling the problems that remain unresolved.  相似文献   

3.
The sensitivities of two climate-model versions—INMCM4 which participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5), and a new INMCM5 version with increased vertical and horizontal resolutions in its atmospheric block—to the quadrupled concentration of CO2 are studied. When the CO2 concentration is quadrupled, the equilibrium increase in surface temperature amounts to about 4.2 K for INMCM4, which is lower than that for other models that participated in the CMIP5. When the CO2 concentration increases, the cloud radiative forcing in the model decreases; in this case, one portion of this decrease occurs during the first year after the concentration of CO2 is quadrupled and the other portion almost linearly depends on the value of global warming. The results of additional numerical experiments with the model show that a rapid decrease in cloud-radiative forcing results from variations in stratification in the atmospheric surface boundary layer and associated increased cloudiness. The portion of a linear decrease in cloud-radiative forcing with increased temperature is associated with an increase in the water content of model clouds at higher temperatures. The elimination of these two mechanisms allows one to increase the model sensitivity to the quadrupled concentration of CO2 up to 5.2 K.  相似文献   

4.
The results of simulations of the World Ocean sea surface hight (SSH) in by various versions of the Climate Model of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, are compared with the CNES-CLS09 fields of the mean dynamic topography (deviation of the ocean level from the geoid). Three models with different ocean blocks are considered which slightly differ in numerical schemes and have various horizontal spatial resolution, i.e., the INMCM4 model, which participated in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP Phase 5, resolution of 1° × 1/2°); the INMCM5 model, which participates in the next project, CMIP6 (resolution of 1/2° × 1/4°); and the advanced INMCM-ER eddy-resolving model (resolution of 1/6° × 1/8°). It is shown that an increase in the spatial resolution improves the reproduction of ocean currents (with Agulhas and Kuroshio currents as examples) and their variability. A probable cause of relatively high errors in the reproduction of the SSH of Southern and Indian oceans is discussed.  相似文献   

5.
This paper formulates the most general principles for verifying models of the dynamic near-water layer of the atmosphere (DNWLA) and performs an advanced verification of the model proposed by the author earlier [6]. Based on empirical wave spectra from the studies by Donelan [15], Elfouhaily [14], and Kudryavtsev [13] and well-known empirical laws describing the wave-age dependence of the friction coefficient, we adjusted the original version of the model. It was shown that the improvement of model reliability is most dependent on the adequacy of the parameterization of the tangential portion of the total momentum flux to the wavy surface. Then the new version of the model was verified on the basis of field data from two different groups of authors. It was found that the new version of the model is consistent with empirical data with an error not exceeding the measurement error of near-water layer parameters.  相似文献   

6.
A new version of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS), climate model (CM) has been developed using an ocean general circulation model instead of the statistical-dynamical ocean model applied in the previous version. The spatial resolution of the new ocean model is 3° in latitude and 5° in longitude, with 25 unevenly spaced vertical levels. In the previous version of the oceanic model, as in the atmospheric model, the horizontal resolution was 4.5° in latitude and 6° in longitude, with four vertical levels (the upper quasi-homogeneous layer, seasonal thermocline, abyssal ocean, and bottom friction layer). There is no correction for the heat and momentum fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean in the new version of the IAP RAS CM. Numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM have been performed under current initial and boundary conditions, as well as with an increasing concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The main simulated atmospheric and oceanic fields agree quite well with observational data. The new version’s equilibrium temperature sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 doubling was found to be 2.9 K. This value lies in the mid-range of estimates (2–4.5 K) obtained from simulations with state-of-the-art models of different complexities.  相似文献   

7.
CMIP5模式对中国近海海表温度的模拟及预估   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
基于观测和再分析资料;利用多种指标和方法评估了国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中21个模式对中国近海海温的月、季节和年际变化模拟能力。多模式集合能够再现气候平均意义下近海海温的空间分布特征;但量值上存在一定的低估。在渤海和黄海;集合平均与观测差别比较明显。在年际尺度上;与观测数据对比;模式模拟海温与Niño3指数相关性较小。中国近海海表面温度在1960-2002年有明显的升高趋势;从2003年开始增温趋缓。评估结果表明;ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2、INMCM4八个模式对中国近海海温的变化有较好的模拟能力。利用ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM这5个模式结果对中国近海海温未来的变化进行了预估。在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下;未来近100年中国近海海温有明显升高趋势;最优模式多模式集合平均增温分别可达到1.5℃、3.3℃;净热通量变化和平流变化共同促进了东海升温。  相似文献   

8.
Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - The parameterization of aerosol–cloud interaction has been updated in the INMCM48 model by including the sulfate aerosol content. The impact of...  相似文献   

9.
A module for simulating of natural fires (NFs) in the climate model of the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM), is extended with respect to the influence of lightning activity and population density on the ignition frequency and fire suppression. The IAP RAS CM is used to perform numerical experiments in accordance with the conditions of the project that intercompares climate models, CMIP5 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, phase 5). The frequency of lightning flashes was assigned in accordance with the LIS/OTD satellite data. In the calculations performed, anthropogenic ignitions play an important role in NF occurrences, except for regions at subpolar latitudes and, to a lesser degree, tropical and subtropical regions. Taking into account the dependence of fire frequency on lightning activity and population density intensifies the influence of characteristics of natural fires on the climate changes in tropics and subtropics as compared to the version of the IAP RAS CM that does not take the influence of ignition sources on the large-scale characteristics of NFs into consideration.  相似文献   

10.
基于CCSM3气候模式的同化模拟试验   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  
基于美国NCAR及其他科学家合作发展的共同气候系统模式CCSM3,利用nudging方法开展了把15 m到465 m的次表层海温同化到该模式的研究。1980—2000年的同化试验结果表明,经过同化得到的模拟结果与实际较为一致,较好的再现了中低纬太平洋海洋和大气的平均特征和随时间演变的规律,但仍存在如海表温度偏高、降水偏强等问题。尤其是在大洋的东边界,陆地地形比较陡峭的地区,通常出现较大的偏差。  相似文献   

11.
The problem of simulating quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) of zonal velocity in the equatorial stratosphere in atmospheric general circulation models is considered. In accordance with the results from Part I of this study on the basis of the models developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), the possibility of implementing (in these models) mechanisms of QBO excitation through both the interaction of planetary waves with the mean flow and breaking of short gravity waves is investigated. A new high-resolution 2° × 2.5° × 80 version of the INM RAS model is designed, a climate simulation with the two 2° × 2.5° × 39 and 2° × 2.5° × 80 versions of the INM RAS model is briefly described, results of spectral analysis of equatorial wave activity are presented, and the QBO formation processes in these models are considered in detail. For the new 2° × 2.5° × 80 model, realistic QBOs of zonal wind are obtained as the result of the action of both mechanisms.  相似文献   

12.
近年来国内外学者采用不同的方法评估气候变化对粮食生产的影响,其中机理模型评价方法是运用较多的方法之一。WOFOST（WOrld FOod STudies）模型由于其机理性强、源代码开放、参数调整较为简便等优势,已经在相关研究中得到广泛应用。该模型以不同作物生长发育的机理过程为依据,经过适用性验证后,可用于粮食作物气候生产潜力评估和气象灾害影响评价;结合历史气候资料与未来气候情景数据,可定量评价过去及未来气候变化对粮食生产的影响。通过介绍WOFOST模型的基本原理、运行机制、参数设定与参数本地化等相关方法,系统总结该模型在评估气候变化对粮食生产影响方面的研究进展,并指出现有研究存在的不足,以期为未来开展相关研究工作提供参考。  相似文献   

13.
Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Five 50-year simulations for the 5th version of the climate model of the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Science (INM...  相似文献   

14.
The northeastern shelf margin of the South China Sea(SCS) is characterized by the development of large scale foresets complexes since Quaternary. Based on integral analysis of the seismic, well logging and paleontological data, successions since ～3.0 Ma can be defined as one composite sequence, consist of a set of regional transgressive to regressive sequences. They can be further divided into six 3 rd order sequences(SQ0–SQ5) based on the Exxon sequence stratigraphic model. Since ～1.6 Ma, five sets of deltaic systems characterized by development of wedge-shaped foresets complexes or clinoforms had been identified. High-resolution seismic data and the thick foresets allowed further divided of sub-depositional sequences(4 th order) of regression to transgression, which is basically consistent with published stacked benthic foram O-isotope records. Depositional systems identified in the study area include deltaic deposits(inner-shelf deltas and shelf-edge deltas), incised valleys, and slope slumping massive deposits. Since ～1.6 Ma, clinoforms prograded from the southern Panyu Lower Uplift toward the northern Baiyun Depression, shelf slope break migrated seaward, whereas the shelf edge of SQ0 migrated landward. The development of incised valleys in the continental shelf increased upward,especially intensive on the SB3 and SB2. The slumping massive deposits increased abruptly since SB2, which corresponds to the development of incised valleys. The evolution of depositional systems of continental slope mainly controlled by the combined influence of sea level changes, tectonic movements, sediment supply and climate changes. Since ～3.0 Ma, relative sea level of the northern SCS had been experienced transgression(～3.0 Ma BP) to regression(～1.6 Ma BP). The regional regression and maximum transgressions of the composite sequences were apparently enhanced by uplift or subsidence related to tectono-thermal events. In addition,climatic variations including monsoon intensification and the mid-Pleistocene transition may have enhanced sediment supply by increasing erosion rate and have an indispensable influence on the development of the incised valleys and 5 sets of deltaic systems since ～1.6 Ma.  相似文献   

15.
K. A. Korotenko 《Oceanology》2007,47(3):313-324
A new high-resolution (<2 km) version of the DieCAST fourth-accuracy-order model for the ocean circulation is proposed for the study of the general circulation, mesoscale structures, and their variability in the Adriatic Sea. The model uses mean seasonal data on the temperature, salinity, buoyancy fluxes, and wind. The data of the COAMPS system with a 4-km resolution were used for the simulation of the sea response to the effects of various winds: Sirocco, Maestro, and two types of boras. The mean monthly runoffs from 38 rivers and mean daily runoffs from 12 main rivers throughout the year were given in the model. The conditions at the open boundary of the Strait of Otranto were given on the basis of the hierarchy of two coarser models for the Adriatic and Mediterranean seas. Due to the extremely weak dissipation and the high resolution (the mesh size is less than the baroclinic radius of deformation, 5–10 km), the model allows one to trace the development of a baroclinic instability along the Italian coast, to simulate mesoscale structures associated with the instability, and to estimate the scales of the structures. Mesoscale filaments, meanders, mushroom-like currents, fronts, and intrusions known from satellite observations were simulated and explained. The scenario of the anomalous upwelling near the Italian coast observed in the summer of 2003 was also simulated and analyzed.  相似文献   

16.
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17.
On the basis of the latest version of a U.S. Navy generalized digital environment model(GDEM-V3.0) and World Ocean Atlas(WOA13), the hydraulic theory is revisited and applied to the Luzon Strait, providing a fresh look at the deepwater overflow there. The result reveals that:(1) the persistent density difference between two sides of the Luzon Strait sustains an all year round deepwater overflow from the western Pacific to the South China Sea(SCS);(2) the seasonal variability of the deepwater overflow is influenced not only by changes in the density difference between two sides of the Luzon Strait, but also by changes in its upstream layer thickness;(3) the deepwater overflow in the Luzon Strait shows a weak semiannual variability;(4) the seasonal mean circulation pattern in the SCS deep basin does not synchronously respond to the seasonality of the deepwater overflow in the Luzon Strait.Moreover, the deepwater overflow reaches its seasonal maximum in December(based on GDEM-V3.0) or in fall(October–December, based on the WOA13), accompanied by the lowest temperature of the year on the Pacific side of the Luzon Strait. The seasonal variability of the deepwater overflow is consistent with the existing longest(3.5 a) continuous observation along the major deepwater passage of the Luzon Strait.  相似文献   

18.
Accurately estimating the mean and extreme wave statistics and better understanding their directional and seasonal variations are of great importance in the planning and designing of ocean and coastal engineering works. Due to the lack of long-term wave measurement data, the analysis of extreme waves is often based on the numerical wave hind-casting results. In this study, the wave climate in the East China Seas (including the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea) for the past 35 years (1979–2013) is hind-casted using a third generation wave model – WAMC4 (Cycle 4 version of WAM model). Two sets of reanalysis wind data from NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, USA) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) are used to drive the wave model to generate the long-term wave climate. The hind-casted waves are then analysed to study the mean and extreme wave statistics in the study area. The results show that the mean wave heights decrease from south to north and from sea to land in general. The extreme wave heights with return periods of 50 and 100 years in the summer and autumn seasons are significantly higher than those in the other two seasons, mainly due to the effect of typhoon events. The mean wave heights in the winter season have the highest values, mainly due to the effect of winter monsoon winds. The comparison of extreme wave statistics from both wind fields with the field measurements at several nearshore wave observation stations shows that the extreme waves generated by the ECMWF winds are better than those generated by the NCEP winds. The comparison also shows the extreme waves in deep waters are better reproduced than those in shallow waters, which is partly attributed to the limitations of the wave model used. The results presented in this paper provide useful insight into the wave climate in the area of the East China Seas, as well as the effect of wind data resolution on the simulation of long-term waves.  相似文献   

19.
We suggested a method for modelling the transport of pollutants over the Black Sea water basin adjacent to Big Sochi. The model is based on the application of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model (INMOM) over the entire basin of Big Sochi in two versions: M1 and M2. In the first version, we use uniform spatial resolution of the model with a step of ～4 km; in the M2 version, the resolution is not uniform. The step decreases to 50 m in the basin of Big Sochi. The M2 version is used only in the periods when pollution transport is simulated, for which the initial hydrothermodynamic state is specified from the M1 version. Both versions reflect a complex character of Black Sea circulation; however, the M2 version more adequately reproduces the eddy circulation in its eastern part, where the horizontal resolution of the M2 version is higher. A conclusion is made on this basis that, in order to reproduce the eddy structure of the Black Sea circulation, the resolution of the model should be on the order of 1.5 km and the main factor of the formation of the quasi-stationary Batumi anticyclonic eddy is the topographic peculiarities in this part of the sea. The pollution spreading from the Sochi, Khosta, and Mzymta rivers and from 18 pipes of deep-water sewage was simulated for the flood periods from April 1, 2007, to April 30, 2007. It was shown that mesoscale eddy formations that form a complex three-dimensional structure of pollution spreading make the greatest contribution to the spread of pollution.  相似文献   

20.
源地黑潮及其上下游流量的变化特征   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  
本文基于长时间序列的海流和温盐资料（最新版SODA高分辩率再分析资料和137°E断面的观测资料）,计算了黑潮流系四个主要断面的流量,并分析了它们的变化特征．结果表明,黑潮流系各主要断面流量具有显著的季节性差异,其年际、年代际变化明显．相关分析表明,源地黑潮及其上下游流量变化具有较强的独立性,变化不尽一致,其中,短期气候变化特征可能与热带太平洋的年际变化有明显关联,而年代际变化则可能与发生于北太平洋的年代际变化以及其它副热带中尺度涡旋等变化有一定联系．  相似文献   

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