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1.
An analysis of recent (1898–1972) seasonal rainfall data from California (winter) and Mexico (summer) provides no evidence of an inverse relationship such as has been reported by Winstanley for climatically analogous areas of Eurasia and Africa. However, California and Old World winter rain trends have been remarkably similar during this time period. Also, summer rain in northwestern Mexico (Mazatlan) correlates highly with winter rainfall in southern California (San Diego) when allowance is made for a 7-year lag. Winstanley suggested that the expansion and contraction of the circumpolar vortex is a primary control of rainfall trends on the margins of the subtropical deserts. The alternative proposed here is that, at least on this time scale, variations in the longitudinal position of troughs and ridges in the upper air westerlies are more important. 相似文献
2.
利用成都地基GPS观测网2007年8月21日～2008年11月30日观测数据,结合地面自动气象站网资料反演GPS大气可降水量(PWV)。选取夏季暴雨,秋季绵雨和冬季雨雪天气过程分析GPSPWV在不同类型降雨天气过程中的演变特征及日变化规律。结果表明,发生在不同季节的暴雨对应PWV的演变有所不同,盛夏暴雨发生在PWV由峰值向波谷变化过程中,夏末的暴雨则出现在由波谷向波峰转变阶段,降雨前GPSPWV的增减速率可很好地预示其后的暴雨强度。在秋季绵雨中PWV的连续大幅递增或递减可作为降雨开始或结束的预报依据。GPSPWV在降雨天气分析及预报中具有重要的指示意义。 相似文献
3.
Iqbal Hossain H. M. Rasel Monzur Alam Imteaz Fatemeh Mekanik 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(7):280
Using the lagged (past) climate indices, including El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as input parameters and long-term spring rainfall as outputs, calibration and validation of the linear multiple regression (MR) models have been performed. Since Australian rainfall varies both temporally and spatially, the analysis on the linear MR models was performed on regional scale. These models show the capability of linear MR technique for long-term predictions of Western Australian spring rainfall. The emphasis was given to assess the statistical correlations between Western Australian spring rainfall and dominating large-scale climate modes. The efficiency of linear modelling technique was evaluated to predict seasonal rainfall forecasting. At the same time, the Pearson correlation (R), mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and Willmott index agreement (d) were used to assess the capability of MR models. The models which fulfilled the limits of statistical significances were used for the prediction of future spring rainfall using independent data set. The results indicate that during calibration periods maximum achievable correlations varied from 0.47 to 0.53 for the selected stations. In regard to predict peaks and troughs of rainfall time series, it was found that correlations between predicted and actual peaks varied from 0.82 to 0.94 and between predicted and actual troughs varied from 0.53 to 0.91. 相似文献
4.
Internal structure of aeolian dunes in Abu Dhabi determined using ground-penetrating radar 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
A ground-penetrating radar survey of aeolian dunes in the Al Liwa area of Abu Dhabi reveals a variety of dipping reflectors which are interpreted as primary sedimentary structures. The interpretation of the radar profiles has been confirmed by bulldozing trenches through the study area and comparing logged sections in the trenches with the radar profiles. NNW— SSE-orientated radar profiles, approximately parallel to the prevailing wind direction, show two sets of dipping reflectors which are interpreted as sets of cross-stratification and second- and third-order bounding surfaces. Radar profiles orientated WSW—ENE across the prevailing wind direction are dominated by concave-up reflectors which are interpreted as trough-shaped scours and sets of trough cross-stratification produced by oblique progradation of barchanoid dunes. Nested troughs, with small sets of trough cross-stratification within larger troughs, may be due to reactivation following wind reversal, or the superposition of small dunes on larger dunes and the fill of large dune troughs by smaller dunes. Convex-upwards reflectors are interpreted as linear spurs on the convex portions of sinuous dunes or erosional remnants between troughs. Overall there is a tendency for the larger second-order bounding surfaces to dip downwind, which confirms Brookfield's ideas of the relative migration paths of dunes and draa. 相似文献
5.
6.
Re-analysis, using surface, upper-air, and satellite observations specially collected during the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment-I
(ARMEX-I), has been performed with a global data assimilation system at T-80/L18 resolution. Re-analysis was performed for
the entire ARMEX-I period (15th June–16th August 2002). In this paper we discuss the results based on re-analysis and subsequent
forecasts for two successive intensive observation periods associated with heavy rainfall along the west coast of India during
2–12 August, 2002. Results indicate that the re-analysed fields can bring out better synoptic features, for example troughs
along the west coast and mid tropospheric circulation over the Arabian Sea. Simulated rainfall distribution using re-analysis
as initial condition also matches observed rainfall better than data from the initial analysis. 相似文献
7.
新疆大～暴雪气候特征及其水汽分析 总被引：25，自引：5，他引：20
应用新疆北部和天山山区50个气象站1961-2002年11月1日至翌年4月15日经过整编的逐日降水量资料,通过统计和诊断分析,揭示了新疆牧区大～暴雪过程的时、空分布特征和年际变化,初步分析了2000-2001年冬季特大雪灾的成因,并选取典型个例分析了新疆暴雪的水汽来源和特征.结果表明:1)有4个大～暴雪过程高频区,即阿勒泰地区、塔城盆地、伊犁河谷、乌苏到木垒的天山北坡一带及天山中部的中山带;前3个区域大～暴雪过程前冬达50%以上,其次为春季和隆冬;天山北坡前冬和春季相当,约为43%左右;2)阿勒泰地区、伊犁河谷和天山北坡大～暴雪过程呈显著的线性增多趋势,增长率分别为0.3次·(10a)-1、0.7次·(10a)-1和0.5次·(10a)-1;3)大～暴雪过程异常偏少和偏少年在20世纪80年代以前,异常偏多和偏多年在20世纪80年代以后,主要在90年代以后;4)由于环流持续3个月的异常,冷空气活动频繁,多次降雪过程导致2000-2001年冬季特大雪灾.冬季降雪水汽由大气环流决定,北方冷空气、中纬西风和较低纬度的西南风带来的水汽均可以影响新疆,700hPa与850hPa的水汽输送相当,500hPa的西方和南方水汽输送也不可忽视. 相似文献
8.
峰丛洼地表层岩溶动力系统季节变化规律 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
峰丛洼地表层岩溶动力系统与土壤CO2密切相关.土壤CO2体积分数变化受气温和降雨影响, 其季节变化特征表现为: 冬季的波谷、夏季的波峰交替出现, 秋季出现次波谷和次波峰.受降雨影响, 表层岩溶动力系统运行强度春、夏季较强, 秋、冬季较弱.从冬至夏, 在土壤CO2逐渐增多时, 系统溶解、转移碳的能力也逐渐增强.在土壤CO2和温度双重支配下, 系统由冬季的沉积趋势转为春、夏季的溶解趋势. 相似文献
9.
The role of rainfall in the thermal-moisture dynamics of the active layer at Beiluhe of Qinghai-Tibetan plateau 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Zhi Wen Fujun Niu Qihao Yu Dayan Wang Wenjie Feng Jianfeng Zheng 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(3):1195-1204
The active layer in permafrost regions plays an important role in energy exchange between permafrost and atmosphere. Rainfall is one of the dominant factors affecting thermal-moisture dynamics of the active layer. To better understand the thermal-moisture dynamics and the interaction between rainfall and the active layer in-detail, in situ experiment was carried out and soil temperature, soil moisture and soil heat flux of the active layer were measured from 2007 to 2009. The observation data demonstrated that the volumetric soil water content of the active layer remained fairly constant during the winter and had a notable fluctuation resulted from evapotranspiration and rewetting from rainfall events in summer. The daily variation amplitude of soil temperature and soil heat flux in summer was bigger than that in winter. Soil moisture content increased and soil temperature decreased after rainfall. Rainfall in summer led to the change of surface energy balance and caused subsurface soil cooling. The convective heat transfer from water infiltration reduced the temperature gradient along depth and changed near-surface heat fluxes. The increase in rainfall may mitigate permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau. 相似文献
10.
利用WRF3D-Var同化多普勒雷达反演风场试验研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
为了将C波段雷达风场资料更好地应用于数值预报模式中,利用两步变分法反演多普勒雷达风场资料,并处理成标准的常规探空资料,以WRF模式及其三维变分同化系统为平台,针对2013年6月19日发生在天水的一次强暴雨过程进行同化雷达反演风的试验研究.试验结果表明:同化雷达反演风场后,对降水预报的改进能维持12h,尤其同化雷达反演风场后3~9h效果非常显著;0~3h作用不是很明显;9~12h预报具有一定的正作用.另外,循环同化比同化一次效果好,但并不是同化次数越多越好.因此,同化C波段雷达反演风场后,对降水预报具有一定的正作用. 相似文献
11.
In order to identify factors affecting the distribution of Anabasis aphylla in rangelands of Iran, 132 climatic parameters which contributed to the species distribution (based on the ecological conditions of the study area) were selected. Factor analysis was then applied to determine the most important factors affecting species distribution. In the next stage, the spatial distribution map of An. aphylla throughout Iran was prepared. According to the results of factor analysis, ten factors with Eigenvalues greater than one explained 92.96% of the total variance. These factors were temperature below zero, winter rainfall, summer rainfall, wind, sunlight, warm season dust, rainfall in fall, thunderstorms, relative humidity in September, and cloudy days in winter and explained 34.34, 9.71, 9.69, 8.85, 5.99, 5.35, 4.97, 4.78, 4.73, and 4.51% of the total variance, respectively. Moreover, six vegetation types containing An. aphylla were identified throughout the country. These types were distributed in the central areas of Iran and also in patches within the southeastern parts of the country. The results showed that in addition to the nine above climatic factors, soil variables particularly salinity influence establishing the vegetation types in their distribution areas and the vegetation types are located in low to relatively high salinity, and soils with these salinity levels (low to relatively high salinity) are suitable for these types of plants. 相似文献
12.
降雨特征及小气候对秦岭油松林降雨再分配的影响 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
为了研究降雨特征及小气候对秦岭天然次生油松林冠层降雨再分配的影响,连续3年观测降雨事件发生时油松林林外降雨、穿透降雨、树干茎流以及降雨特征和小气候因子,进行各因子间的相关性和多元回归分析。结果表明:降雨量级是影响林冠降雨再分配的最主要因素,穿透降雨量与降雨量、降雨量和降雨历时交互项、相对湿度呈正相关,与降雨历时和温度呈负相关。树干茎流量与降雨量、降雨量和温度交互项呈正相关,与温度呈负相关。林冠截留量与降雨量、降雨历时和温度呈正相关,与降雨量和降雨历时、温度的交互项呈负相关。雨前干燥期、风向、风速、蒸发速率、光合有效辐射和净辐射与穿透降雨量、树干茎流量和林冠截留量均无相关性。 相似文献
13.
Anticyclones dominate the weather over most of the eastern and the southern Asia during the winter season. This study examines the impact of Siberian High on winter rainfall variability over South Asia. In this paper, the teleconnections between the Siberian High and winter precipitation that cover the northern part of Indo-Pak region have been discussed. The objective indices of area-weighted pressure and area-weighted latitudinal and longitudinal movements high are used to find out the linkage between the winter rainfall in the mentioned region and the Siberian High. The analysis shows that rainfall pattern is significantly correlated with latitudinal displacement of the Siberian High. We have constructed a linear model of the winter rainfall using Siberian High latitude and Nino34 which explains 27 % variance of the winter precipitation for the region under study. The article also explains the physical mechanisms to establish the relationships between the Siberian High and regional rainfall. 相似文献
14.
利用天山南坡科其喀尔冰川3号观测站2009年全年的气象观测资料,分析研究了科其喀尔冰川表碛区的小气候特征. 结果表明：总辐射和净辐射夏秋季较高、冬春季较低;反射辐射和地表反照率反之. 与其他地区不同,该区主要受积雪物理性质和下垫面状况的影响,冬春季地表反照率日变化表现为由大到小的变化过程,夏秋季表现为倒U型. 温度年变化表现为夏秋季高、冬春季低,最高月均值出现在8月,为9.4℃,最低月均值出现在1月,为-9.6℃. 受山谷风和冰川风的影响,全年的风向以西北风和西北偏西风为主,风向的日变化以11：00为界发生转向. 受降水和冰川消融等的影响,比湿夏秋季月均值较大,冬春季月均值较小. 相似文献
15.
纵向岭谷区冬、夏水热条件空间分布研究 总被引：20，自引：0，他引：20
利用纵向岭谷区内76个测站降水、温度资料和大气环流资料,研究该区冬、夏两季降水的空间分布规律。结果表明：纵向岭谷区多年平均冬季降水空间上沿河流呈纵向分布;但纵向岭谷独特地形对冬季降水变化的空间分布影响不明显;冬季气候平均温度大致呈东西向带状分布,由低纬到高纬温度逐渐递减;在区域上,纵向岭谷独特地形的“通道—阻隔”作用对冬季温度空间分布的影响不明显;但在怒江和澜沧江流域,这种影响则较为明显。纵向岭谷区多年平均夏季降水空间分布主要由纵向岭谷的“阻隔”效应,以及夏季从孟加拉湾来的气流和从南海来的气流在相应迎风坡面辐合,形成两支较强的上升气流所致;而纵向剖面大气环流的变化则较为均匀,显示了纵向岭谷的“通道”效应。纵向岭谷的这种“通道—阻隔”效应使得西南季风和东南季风在区内交汇,并使区内夏季降水空间上及夏季降水的变化沿河流呈纵向分布。地形对怒江、澜沧江流域夏季温度空间分布的“通道—阻隔”作用较明显;对夏季温度变化的“通道—阻隔”作用则在纵向岭谷西北部地区最明显,但其余地区地形的作用则相对较弱。 相似文献
16.
Goutami Chattopadhyay Surajit Chattopadhyay Rajni Jain 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2010,342(10):755-765
In this article, the complexities in the relationship between rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during the winter monsoon over India were evaluated statistically using scatter plot matrices and autocorrelation functions. Linear, as well as polynomial trend equations were obtained, and it was observed that the coefficient of determination for the linear trend was very low and it remained low even when polynomial trend of degree six was used. An exponential regression equation and an artificial neural network with extensive variable selection were generated to forecast the average winter monsoon rainfall of a given year using the rainfall amounts and the SST anomalies in the winter monsoon months of the previous year as predictors. The regression coefficients for the multiple exponential regression equation were generated using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. The artificial neural network was generated in the form of a multilayer perceptron with sigmoid non-linearity and genetic-algorithm based variable selection. Both of the predictive models were judged statistically using the Willmott's index, percentage error of prediction, and prediction yields. The statistical assessment revealed the potential of artificial neural network over exponential regression. 相似文献
17.
The aim of this study was to investigate temporal variation in seasonal and annual rainfall trend over Ranchi district of Jharkhand, India for the period (1901–2014: 113 years). Mean monthly rainfall data series were used to determine the significance and magnitude of the trend using non-parametric Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator. The analysis showed a significant decreased in rainfall during annual, winter and southwest monsoon rainfall while increased in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall over the Ranchi district. A positive trend is detected in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall data series while annual, winter and southwest monsoon rainfall showed a negative trend. The maximum decrease in rainfall was found for monsoon (? 1.348 mm year?1) and minimum (? 0.098 mm year?1) during winter rainfall. The trend of post-monsoon rainfall was found upward (0.068 mm year?1). The positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall were found statistically non-significant except monsoon rainfall at 5% level of significance. Rainfall variability pattern was calculated using coefficient of variation CV, %. Post-monsoon rainfall showed the maximum value of CV (70.80%), whereas annual rainfall exhibited the minimum value of CV (17.09%), respectively. In general, high variation of CV was found which showed that the entire region is very vulnerable to droughts and floods. 相似文献
18.
The northeast monsoon rainfall (NEMR) contributes about 20–40 % of annual rainfall over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). In the present study, the relationship between the NEMR and near-surface atmospheric wind convergence (NSAWC) over the NIO is demonstrated using high-resolution multisatellite data. The rainfall product from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis and near-surface wind product from the Cross-Calibration Multi-Platform available at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution are used for the study. Large-scale NSAWC and divergence maps over the tropical Indian Ocean are generated at monthly scale from the wind product for the period of 1988–2010. A preliminary analysis is carried out for two consecutive anomalous Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years 2005 (negative) and 2006 (positive). The distinct spatial patterns of rainfall rate and NSAWC fields over the NIO clearly show the evolution of the anomalous IOD events in the south eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO). The spatially averaged time-series of pentad NSAWC over the south EEIO box suggests that the variability occurs in phase with rainfall rate during both the northeast monsoon years. Furthermore, the scatter plot between area-averaged pentad rainfall and convergence over the south EEIO box for the period of 1998–2010 shows statistically significant linear correlation which reveals that NSAWC plays a key role in regulating the NEMR. 相似文献
19.
MORTEN HALD TORE O. VORREN 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》1984,13(2):133-154
Based on studies of gravity cores from two transverse troughs on the shelf and earlier investigations, the surface sediments are divided into three main facies: bouldery and pebbly sand on the banks and the shelf break; sand on the flanks and outer parts of the troughs and sandy mud in the inner parts of the troughs. Besides a depth control, the distribution must have been influenced by relatively rapidly moving bottom currents in the outer parts of the troughs. The distribution and composition of the modern benthic foraminiferal fauna (e.g. C. lobatulus/T. angulosa in the outer reaches and C. obtusalBolivina spp. in the inner reaches) is mainly controlled by the bottom current regime and sediments. The planktic fauna dominated by N. pachyderma (R) correlates well with the winter surface temperatures. The stratigraphi-cal analysis shows that the 10,000–9,600 years B.P. period experienced high rates of deposition probably due to meltwater runoff from the continental ice sheet. At ca. 9,700 B.P. a minimum in the production of N. pachyderma (R) indicates a temporary cooling of the surface water. During the 9,600–7,800 B.P. period the rate of deposition was reduced. At the end of this period the foraminiferal fauna changed towards one like the modern fauna, reflecting improving ecological conditions. At ca. 7,800 B.P. the sediments became coarser due to reduced input of detrital sediments and an increased production of sand-sized biogenic material. Since then the shelf environment has been fairly stable up to the present time. 相似文献
20.
利用1960-2015年新疆阿勒泰地区7个气象观测站的日降水量资料和中国气象数据共享网提供的2014-2015年中国地面时降水0.1°×0.1°格点数据集,初步评估了阿勒泰地区人工增水效果。结果表明,人工增雪使阿勒泰地区冬季平均降雪量增加了20.80 mm,冬季降雪量占全年降水量的比例也由15.50%提高到22.39%。同一时期年平均降水量增加了39.47 mm,有一半以上来自冬季增雪量。人工增雨使阿勒泰地区夏季平均降雨量增加了16.59 mm,增雨率为4%,夏季增雨不如冬季增雪效果明显。 相似文献