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1.
The paper presents runoff and soil erosion measurements from plots on outward-sloping rainfed agricultural terraces in the Likhu Khola drainage basin, Middle Hills, Nepal, for the pre-monsoon and monsoon periods of 1992 and 1993. Runoff coefficients ranged from 5% to over 50%, depending on the nature of the rainfall event and the characteristics of the terrace. Total rainfall amount provided the highest level of explanation for the variation in runoff. Soil losses ranged from 2.7 to 8.2 t ha–1 for 1993 and up to 12.9 t ha–1 for 1992. The higher losses were associated with red, finer-grained soils. The majority of these rates are lower than the rates of soil loss that have been commonly perceived for the Middle Hills of the Himalaya. However, they are broadly similar to rates obtained from the few other studies that have examined runoff and erosion under traditional rainfed cultivation. The results suggest that a re-evaluation of the degree of land degradation in such areas may be necessary. Relationships between soil loss and rainfall characteristics were highly variable but were improved considerably when vegetation cover was included. This indicates that the maintenance of some form of ground cover is advisable if runoff and erosion are to be minimized.  相似文献   

2.
This study was conducted to quantify agricultural land degradation in the Ruba Gered watershed, Ethiopia. The watershed was divided into 12 land mapping units (LMU) after superimposing maps of soil, slope, land use/cover, and elevation. Subsequently, cultivated land was delineated to assess degradation types and severity based on standard approaches. Sheet erosion was estimated using the revised universal soil loss equation. Composite soil samples were collected from each LMU to quantify key soil nutrients (OM, total nitrogen, available phosphorus, and available potassium) lost by sheet erosion. The annual average soil loss due to sheet erosion was estimated to be 17.4 t ha?1 yr?1, with average annual nutrient losses estimated as 246.5 kg ha?1 organic matter, 12.4 kg ha?1 total nitrogen, 0.1 kg ha?1 available phosphorus, and 1.6 kg ha?1 available potassium. The study revealed that substantial quantities of soil and nutrients are lost every year in the study area due to severe sheet erosion. This amount of nutrient loss severely degrades soil and reduces soil fertility.  相似文献   

3.
高寒草甸土壤有机碳储量及其垂直分布特征   总被引：24，自引：0，他引：24  
青藏高原是全球变化的敏感区。高寒草甸草原是青藏高原上最主要的放牧利用草地资源之一。选择青藏高原东北隅海北站内具有代表性的高寒草甸土壤进行高分辨率采样,测定土壤根系和有机碳含量。研究得出,青藏高原高寒草甸土壤贮存有巨大的根系生物量 (23544.60 kg ha-1~27947 kg ha-1) 和土壤有机碳 (21.52 GtC);自然土壤表层 (0~10 cm) 储存了整个剖面土壤有机碳总量的30%左右。比较发现,高寒草甸土壤的有机碳平均贮存量 (23.17×104 kgCha-1) (0~60 cm) 较相应深度的热带森林土壤、灌丛土壤和草地土壤的有机碳贮存量高约1~5倍多。在全球碳预算研究中,青藏高原高寒草甸土壤有机碳库不可忽视。随着全球变暖,表层土壤有机碳分解释放的CO2将增加。为了减少高寒草甸生态系统的碳排放,应加强高寒草甸土壤地表覆被的保护,合理种植深根系植物。这对减缓全球大气CO2浓度升高的速率以及可持续开发高寒草甸的生态服务功能都具有重要意义。  相似文献   

4.
The ecological consequences of grassland afforestation in arid/semiarid sandy regions are not well known with respect to tree species and stand age. The present study quantifies the changes in above- and belowground carbon (C) stocks following afforestation in the southeastern Keerqin Sandy Lands with species of Mongolian pine and poplar. We studied 15-, 24-, and 30-year-old Mongolian pine plantations, 7-, 11-, and 15-year-old poplar plantations, and adjacent grasslands. The results show that total ecosystem C stocks increased following grassland afforestation. Aboveground C stocks increased at a rate of 2.75 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 in the poplar plantations, and 1.06 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 in the Mongolian pine plantations. Mineral soil C stocks decreased during the early stage of forest establishment, but recovered with increasing stand age. Root C stock increased significantly in the Mongolian pine plantations, but the poplar plantations showed no such increase relative to the grassland. Our results indicate that afforestation of the grassland in the southeastern Keerqin Sandy Lands would sequester more C than would continuous grassland. Tree species selection and stand developmental age should be considered in planning future afforestation projects.  相似文献   

5.
Preserving soils is a major challenge in ensuring sustainable agriculture for the future. Soil erosion by water is a critical issue in the Mediterranean regions and usually occurs when high-erosive precipitation is in temporal association with poor vegetation cover and density. Modelling soil erosion risks over large spatial scales suffers from the scarcity of accurate information on land cover, rainfall erosivity and their intra-annual dynamics. We estimated the soil erosion risk on arable land in a Mediterranean area (Grosseto Province, southern Tuscany, Italy) and investigated its potential reduction as a response to the change in intra-annual distribution of land cover due to the increase of perennial forage crops. A GIS-based (R)USLE model was employed and a scenario analysis was performed by setting criteria for raising the performance of perennial forage crops. Statistical data on agricultural crops provided an insight into current intra-annual land cover dynamics. Rainfall erosivity was computed on the basis of 22-year hourly precipitation data. The model was used to: i) quantify the potential soil losses of arable land in the study area, ii) identify those areas highly affected by erosion risks iii) explore the potential for soil conservation of perennial crops, thereby enabling appropriate preventive measures to be identified. The erosion rates, averaged over an area of about 140’000 ha, are estimated to 33.42 Mg ha−1 y−1. More than 59% of the study area was subjected to soil losses higher than 11 Mg ha−1 y−1 (from moderate to severe erosion) and the highest rates are estimated for steep inland areas. Arable land with severe soil erosion rates (higher than 33 Mg ha−1 y−1) represent about 35% of the whole study area. The risk of soil loss by water erosion in the study area is estimated to be reduced on average by 36% if perennial crops are increased in terms of 35% of the total arable land. The soil erosion data produced compared well with the published local and regional data. This study thus provides useful preliminary information for landscape planning authorities and can be used as a decision support tool in quantifying the implications of management policies.  相似文献   

6.
A comprehensive methodology that integrates the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and Geographic Information System (GIS) was adopted in this study to determine the soil erosion and sediment yield of the Irga watershed in Jharkhand, India. Based on the availability and applicability of data in a GIS-environment, the original equations for the model input parameters were, however, modified by researchers. In the present study, a power-law equation was generated to estimate the rainfall erosivity (R) factor, and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient used to determine the accuracy of the modified R factor. Average annual soil erosion in the Irga watershed is estimated to be 4.3 t ha?1 yr?1. On the other hand, average annual sediment yield of the watershed, estimated using the sediment delivery ratio, was found to be 1.2 t ha?1 yr?1. Low sediment yield indicates that most of the eroded soil was deposited within the watershed.  相似文献   

7.
Rates of sheet and rill erosion in Germany — A meta-analysis   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
K. Auerswald  P. Fiener  R. Dikau   《Geomorphology》2009,111(3-4):182-193
Knowledge of erosion rates under real conditions is of great concern regarding sustainability of landuse and off-site effects on water bodies and settlements. Experimentally derived rates of sheet and rill erosion are often biased by experimental settings, which deviate considerably from typical landuse, by short measuring periods and by small spatial extensions, which do not account for the pronounced spatio-temporal variability of erosion events. We compiled data from 27 studies covering 1076 plot years to account for this variability. Modelling was used to correct for deficiencies in the experimental settings, which overrepresented arable land and used steeper and shorter slopes as well as higher erosivity than typically found in reality. For example, the average slope gradient was 5.9° for all arable plot experiments while it is only 2.6° on total arable land in Germany. The expected soil loss by sheet and rill erosion in Germany after taking real slopes, landuse and erosivity into account averaged 2.7 t ha− 1 yr− 1. Annual crops contributed the largest proportion (90%) but hops despite its negligible contribution to landuse (0.06%) still contribute 1.0% due to its extraordinary rapid erosion, which was even faster than the measured bare fallow soil loss standardized to otherwise identical conditions. Bare fallow soil loss, which is often used as baseline, was 80 t ha− 1 yr− 1 when standardized to 5.1° slope gradient, 200 m flow path length, and average German erosivity.  相似文献   

8.
Abstract

Páramo grasslands are important carbon sinks in the Ecuadorian Andes. Although carbon content of páramo Andisols is correlated with high water retention, the effects of differences in soil moisture under different types of land use on soil carbon processes have not been explicitly tested in the Ecuadorian Andes. This study assessed the relationship between soil moisture and soil CO2 flux among a mature páramo grassland, recently burned páramo grassland, native montane forest, and pine plantation in an Ecuadorian páramo landscape. Soil CO2 flux was greater in the forest sites compared to the grassland sites. Thus, a shift from grassland to forest cover may have significant implications for soil carbon loss via CO2 flux. Our results suggest that although soil moisture plays a significant role in differences of soil CO2 flux rates among land-use types, more investigation into mechanisms for soil carbon loss and how they are driven by land-use change is needed. To our knowledge, these are the first soil CO2 flux rates reported for the Ecuadorian páramo.  相似文献   

9.
A comprehensive understanding of the patterns that occur as human processes transform landscapes is necessary for sustainable development. We provide new evidence on how landscapes change by analysing the spatial patterns of human processes in three forest landscapes in southern Chile at different states of alteration (40%-90% of old-growth forest loss). Three phases of landscape alteration are distinguished. In Phase I (40%-65% of old-growth forest loss), deforestation rates are < 1% yr−1, forests are increasingly degraded, and clearance for pastureland is concentrated on deeper soils. In Phase II (65%-80%), deforestation reaches its maximum rate of 1-1.5% yr−1, with clearance for pastureland being the main human process, creating a landscape dominated by disturbed forest and shrubland. In this phase, clearance for pastureland is the primary driver of change, with pastures expanding onto poorer soils in more spatially aggregated patterns. In Phase III (80%-90%), deforestation rates are again relatively low (<1% yr−1) and forest regrowth is observed on marginal lands. During this phase, clearance is the dominant process and pastureland is the main land cover. As a forest landscape is transformed, the extent and intensity of human processes vary according to the existing state of landscape alteration, resulting in distinctive landscape patterns in each phase. A relationship between spatial patterns of land cover and human-related processes has been identified along the gradient of landscape alteration. This integrative framework can potentially provide insights into the patterns and processes of dynamic landscapes in other areas subjected to intensifying human use.  相似文献   

10.
The main objective of our study was to provide consistent information on land cover changes between the years 1990 and 2010 for the Cerrado and Caatinga Brazilian seasonal biomes. These areas have been overlooked in terms of land cover change assessment if compared with efforts in monitoring the Amazon rain forest. For each of the target years (1990, 2000 and 2010) land cover information was obtained through an object-based classification approach for 243 sample units (10  km × 10  km size), using (E)TM Landsat images systematically located at each full degree confluence of latitude and longitude. The images were automatically pre-processed, segmented and labelled according to the following legend: Tree Cover (TC), Tree Cover Mosaic (TCM), Other Wooded Land (OWL), Other Land Cover (OLC) and Water (W). Our results indicate the Cerrado and Caatinga biomes lost (gross loss) respectively 265,595 km2 and 89,656 km2 of natural vegetation (TC + OWL) between 1990 and 2010. In the same period, these areas also experienced gain of TC and OWL. By 2010, the percentage of natural vegetation cover remaining in the Cerrado was 47% and in the Caatinga 63%. The annual (net) rate of natural vegetation cover loss in the Cerrado slowed down from −0.79% yr−1 to −0.44% yr−1 from the 1990s to the 2000s, while in the Caatinga for the same periods the rate increased from −0.19% yr−1 to −0.44% yr−1. In summary, these Brazilian biomes experienced both loss and gains of Tree Cover and Other Wooded Land; however a continued net loss of natural vegetation was observed for both biomes between 1990 and 2010. The average annual rate of change in this period was higher in the Cerrado (−0.6% yr−1) than in the Caatinga (−0.3% yr−1).  相似文献   

11.
Biofuels are considered as a climate-friendly energy alternative. However, their environmental sustainability is increasingly debated because of land competition with food production, negative carbon balances and impacts on biodiversity. Arid and semi-arid lands have been proposed as a more sustainable alternative without such impacts. In that context this paper evaluates the carbon balance of potential land conversion to Jatropha cultivation, biofuel production and use in arid and semi-arid areas. This evaluation includes the calculation of carbon debt created by these land conversions and calculation of the minimum Jatropha yield necessary to repay the respective carbon debts within 15 or 30 years.The carbon debts caused by conversion of arid and semi-arid lands to Jatropha vary largely as a function of the biomass carbon stocks of the land use types in these regions. Based on global ecosystem carbon mapping, cultivated lands and marginal areas (sparse shrubs, herbaceous and bare areas) show to have similar biomass carbon stocks (on average 4–8 t C ha−1) and together cover a total of 1.79 billion ha. Conversion of these lands might not cause a carbon debt, but still might have a negative impact on other sustainability dimensions (e.g. biodiversity or socio-economics). Jatropha establishment in shrubland (0.75 billion ha) would cause a carbon debt of 24–28 t C ha−1 on average (repayable within 30 year with yield of 3.5–3.9 t seed ha−1 yr−1). Land use change in the 1.15 billion ha of forested area under arid and semi-arid climates could cause a carbon debt between 70 and 118 t C ha−1. This debt requires 8.6–13.9 t seed production ha−1 yr−1 for repayment within 30 years. If repayment is required within 15 years, the necessary minimum yields almost double. Considering that 5 t seed ha−1 yr−1 is the current maximum Jatropha yield, conversion of forests cannot be repaid within one human generation. Repayment of carbon debt from shrubland conversions in 30 years is challenging, but feasible. Repayment in 15 year is currently not attainable.Based on this analysis the paper discusses the carbon mitigation potential of biofuels in arid and semi-arid environments.  相似文献   

12.
The Koshi River Basin is in the middle of the Himalayas, a tributary of the Ganges River and a very important cross-border watershed. Across the basin there are large changes in altitude, habitat complexity, ecosystem integrity, land cover diversity and regional difference and this area is sensitive to global climate change. Based on Landsat TM images, vegetation mapping, field investigations and 3S technology, we compiled high-precision land cover data for the Koshi River Basin and analyzed current land cover characteristics. We found that from source to downstream, land cover in the Koshi River Basin in 2010 was composed of water body (glacier), bare land, sparse vegetation, grassland, wetland, shrubland, forest, cropland, water body (river or lake) and built-up areas. Among them, grassland, forest, bare land and cropland are the main types, accounting for 25.83%, 21.19%, 19.31% and 15.09% of the basin’s area respectively. The composition and structure of the Koshi River Basin land cover types are different between southern and northern slopes. The north slope is dominated by grassland, bare land and glacier; forest, bare land and glacier are mainly found on northern slopes. Northern slopes contain nearly seven times more grassland than southern slopes; while 97.13% of forest is located on southern slopes. Grassland area on northern slope is 6.67 times than on southern slope. The vertical distribution of major land cover types has obvious zonal characteristics. Land cover types from low to high altitudes are cropland, forest, Shrubland and mixed cropland, grassland, sparse vegetation, bare land and water bodies. These results provide a scientific basis for the study of land use and cover change in a critical region and will inform ecosystem protection, sustainability and management in this and other alpine transboundary basins.  相似文献   

13.
Domestic grazing animals that congregate around watering points in arid rangelands create clearly-defined trampling-induced grazing gradients. Grazing and trampling alter soil and vegetation condition, often leading to substantial reductions in ecological function. We measured foraging pits and mounds created by native soil foraging animals over 12 months at three watering points in a Chihuahuan Desert grassland, and hypothesized that the density and cover of their disturbances would increase with increasing distance from water. We recorded an average of 3756 disturbances ha−1 and cover of 34.18 m2 ha−1 across the grazing gradients, which comprised mainly pits (43%) and mounds (25%) of heteromyid rodents, ants and spiders. Soil turnover was estimated at 1.43 m3 ha−1. We detected no differences in density, cover, soil volume or composition of disturbances in relation to distance from water, but there were significant, though ill-defined, differences across the five sampling periods, with generally more activity in the warm–wet months. Small animal-created mounds and pits are important sources of soil and sinks for litter within grazing gradients, and may represent the only sites where plants can establish given a relaxation in grazing pressure.  相似文献   

14.
基于甘肃省清水县汤峪河径流小区2015—2017年的观测数据,研究不同植被恢复模式条件下坡面次降雨入渗、产流产沙特征。结果表明：不同植被恢复模式条件下的土壤入渗量与降雨强度呈二次函数关系,存在入渗量达到最大值的临界降雨强度。入渗速率与降雨历时可以用幂函数关系表达,符合考斯恰可夫入渗模型。不同植被恢复模式条件下的产流率在0.003 3~0.003 6 mm·min-1之间,相对裸地的减流率为54%~58%。产流率与降雨强度之间呈二次函数关系（R2>0.88）,产流率的主要影响因素是降雨强度。径流含沙量平均值乔灌混合区（3.13 g·L-1）>灌木林（2.95 g·L-1）>乔木林（2.79 g·L-1）>草地（2.58 g·L-1）,径流含沙量与降雨强度呈线性递增函数关系。裸地的产沙量显著高于各植被小区（P<0.05）,是各植被小区的43~57倍,各植被小区的减沙率在93%~94%之间,减沙效益高于其减流效益。各植被坡面土壤流失量与降雨侵蚀力呈线性递增函数关系;产流率与侵蚀产沙率之间呈极显著正相关关系（P<0.01）,二者间可采用二次函数关系表达。本研究成果可为黄土高原丘陵沟壑区水土保持优化配置提供理论依据。  相似文献   

15.
Cattle trampling without forage consumption at stocking densities of 0.03-1.4 cows ha−1 was simulated on two dry-season rangelands in Kenya. Experiments under artificial rainfall documented the response of plant cover and production, infiltration, and erosion on a Luvisol and a Vertisol. Trampling reduced plant cover, biomass, and, at the highest rate, regeneration in the ensuing wet season. Infiltration was reduced on the Vertisol but not the Luvisol, although increases in runoff due to trampling were slight. Trampling increased soil loss partly by reducing vegetation cover but mainly by disrupting surface layers of sand on the Luvisol and of clay aggregates on the Vertisol. Soil loss normalized by runoff and rainfall energy declined in a sequence of erosive rainstorms as the sandy surface layer became re-established, but before vegetation recovered. Establishment of a sandy armor layer during runoff events and its disruption by dry-season trampling thus strongly affect soil-loss rates. Trampling limits plant recovery in the ensuing wet season only at intensities typical of settlement and watering centers. The experimental results, generalized with a spatial model of stock density, can be used to estimate the contribution of trampling to forage production and erosion as herding patterns change in response to sedenterization and water development.  相似文献   

16.
Persimmons (Diospyros kaki) are trees cultivated under subtropical environmental conditions but are also found in other regions such as the Mediterranean. However, no research has been conducted to investigate soil erosion processes under Mediterranean soil management systems characterized by flood irrigation and/or tillage. The Improved Stock Unearthing Method (ISUM) for assessing long-term soil mobilization was applied to two fields, one under tillage and the other under no-till with herbicide within a 25-year old Mediterranean persimmon plantation. Replicating methods used in vineyard studies, graft unións on persimmon plants were used as passive bio-indicators of soil surface changes in this study. The tilled field showed a total soil mobilization volume of 48.4 m3 on a 408.5 m2 plot, representing a total soil loss of 52.6 Mg ha-1 yr-1. For the plot (468 m2) managed with no-till and herbicide, the results indicated total soil mobilization of 33.6 m3 which translates to 31.9 Mg ha-1 yr-1. It is concluded that flood irrigation is able to modify the runoff pathways and landforms in Mediterranean persimmon plantations, and the flood impact is more extensive when combined with tillage. For the first time, ISUM has been successfully applied to estimate soil erosion in a plantation under flood irrigation.  相似文献   

17.
Few measurements of the rate of soil erosion from agricultural land in Britain have been published. Loamy soils in England may be particularly vulnerable to erosion. Thus, in a field of strawberries near Albourne at least 181 t ha−1 of fine loamy soil was eroded in a 9-month period; this is almost 100 times greater than a suggested ‘acceptable’ figure. Factors which have induced erosion at Albourne are: the removal of field boundaries; the choice of crop which left the ground bare for a prolonged period ; and the working of the land downslope. Other factors contributing to erosion are the low clay and organic matter content of the soil. The soil slakes and the resultant crust reduces the rate of infiltration of rainfall into the soil and this produces overland flow. Large amounts of rainfall are not necessary to cause erosion. Erosion in the Albourne area is probably a relatively recent phenomenon brought about by changes in land use.  相似文献   

18.
1992-2015年中亚五国土地覆盖与蒸散发变化   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  
阮宏威  于静洁 《地理学报》2019,74(7):1292-1304
1991年苏联解体,中亚五国独立使得土地覆盖与蒸散发格局发生深刻变化。以中亚五国为研究区,采用欧空局气候变化项目（CCI）土地覆盖和全球陆地数据同化系统（GLDAS）蒸散发数据,分析1992-2015年土地覆盖与蒸散发时空变化特征,进一步研究耕地蒸散耗水特征。结果表明：① 中亚五国土地覆盖变化具有阶段性特征,耕地扩张引起土地覆盖格局变化。1992-2003年耕地快速增加（1.1万km 2/a）,林地和草地大幅减少。2003-2015年耕地增速趋缓（0.3万km 2/a）,林地和草地有一定恢复,裸地和水体持续减少,城镇用地持续增长。耕地共增加12.3万km 2,林地和草地分别减少4.0万km 2和2.3万km 2,且集中于哈萨克斯坦中北部。裸地减少3.5万km 2,集中于哈萨克斯坦西南部,水体减少3.1万km 2,集中在咸海湖泊。乌兹别克斯坦耕地减少、裸地增加,吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和土库曼斯坦土地覆盖变化幅度较小;② 中亚五国蒸散发变化与土地覆盖格局基本一致。蒸散发总体呈增加态势（6 mm/a）,1992-2003年快速增加（11.3 mm/a）,2003-2015年缓慢上升（2.4 mm/a）。中亚五国年蒸散发达到276.8 mm,东南部的吉尔吉斯斯坦（347.3 mm）和塔吉克斯坦（302.9 mm）最高,中北部的哈萨克斯坦（297.9 mm）次之,西南部的乌兹别克斯坦（211.0 mm）和土库曼斯坦（150.0 mm）最低;③ 中亚五国蒸散耗水结构受耕地面积大小的影响。中亚五国耕地蒸散耗水的贡献由24.7%增至27.9%,土库曼斯坦耕地蒸散耗水仅占本国的11%,其他国家均超过25%。草地、林地和裸地的蒸散耗水贡献降低,但哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦仍以草地和林地蒸散耗水为主（≥ 50%）,土库曼斯坦（61.3%）和乌兹别克斯坦（46.4%）的裸地蒸散耗水占绝对优势。本文明确了中亚五国土地覆盖连续动态变化过程,细化各国土地覆盖与蒸散发特征及差异,增强对土地覆盖与蒸散发现状的认识,可为水土资源管理和生态环境保护提供数据参考。  相似文献   

19.
Cultivation, overgrazing, and overharvesting are seriously degrading forest and grassland ecosystems in the Taurus Mountains of the southern Mediterranean region of Turkey. This study investigated the effects of changes on soil organic carbon (SOC) content and other physical soil properties over a 12-year period in three adjacent ecosystems in a Mediterranean plateau. The ecosystems were cropland (converted from grasslands in 1990), open forest, and grassland. Soil samples from two depths, 0–10 and 10–20 cm, were collected for chemical and physical analyses at each of cropland, open forest, and grassland ecosystems. SOC pools at the 0–20 cm depth of cropland, forest, and grassland ecosystems were estimated at 32,636, 56,480, and 57,317 kg ha−1, respectively. Conversion of grassland into cropland during the 12-year period increased the bulk density by 10.5% and soil erodibility by 46.2%; it decreased SOM by 48.8%, SOC content by 43%, available water capacity (AWC) by 30.5%, and total porosity by 9.1% for the 0–20 cm soil depth (p<0.001). The correlation matrix revealed that SOC content was positively correlated with AWC, total porosity, mean weight diameter (MWD), forest, and grassland, and negatively with bulk density, pH, soil erodibility factor, and cropland. The multiple regression (MLR) models indicated that any two of the three ecosystems and one of the two soil depths accounted for 86.5% of variation in mean SOC values ((p<0.001).  相似文献   

20.
The Qilian mountain area was examined for using the Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model combined with GIS spatial analyst technology to research the transformation of LUCC, driving force system and simulate future tendency of variation. Results show that:(1) Woodland area decreased by 12.55%, while grassland, cultivated land, and settlement areas increased by 0.22%, 7.92%, and 0.03%, respectively, from 1986 to 2014. During the period of 1986 to 2000, forest degradation in the middle section of the mountain area decreased by 1,501.69 km~2. Vegetation cover area improved, with a net increase of grassland area of 38.12 km~2 from 2000 to 2014.(2) For constructing the system driving force, the best simulation scale was 210m×210m. Based on logistic regression analysis, the contribution(weight) of composite driving forces to land use and cover change was obtained, and the weight value was more objectively compared with AHP and MCE method.(3) In the natural scenarios, it is predicted that land use and cover distribution maps of Qilian mountain area in 2028 and 2042, and the Lee-Sallee index test was adopted. Over the next 27 years(2015–2042), farmland, woodland, grassland, settlement areas show an increasing trend, especially settlements with an obvious change of 0.56%. The area of bare land will decrease by 0.89%. Without environmental degradation, tremendous structural change of LUCC will not occur, and typical characteristic of the vertical zone of the mountain would remain. Farmland and settlement areas will increase, but only in the vicinity of Qilian and Sunan counties.  相似文献   

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