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风暴潮灾害风险评估研究综述 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
我国是受风暴潮影响最严重的少数国家之一,风暴潮灾害致灾机理的研究在过去几十年取得了极大的进展,而风暴潮脆弱性评估和综合风险评估还不能满足风暴潮灾害风险管理的需求.系统总结了风暴潮危险性、脆弱性、综合风险评估及其应用的研究进展,重点分析了典型重现期风暴潮估计、可能最大风暴潮计算、风暴潮物理脆弱性和社会脆弱性评估以及风暴潮风险评估及其应用的研究进展及不足,并对我国风暴潮风险评估急需解决的问题以及未来的研究重点进行了展望,指出了风暴潮灾害风险评估的模型化、系统化、定量化是未来风暴潮风险评估研究的发展趋势,风暴潮灾害的未来风险评估还需考虑全球气候变化以及海平面上升等因素的影响,而风暴潮灾害承灾体脆弱性的定量评价是风暴潮综合风险评估的重点和难点. 相似文献
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通过近年来对江苏沿海有影响的台风暴潮作用前后的滩面高程观测,结合台风浪资料分析,探究了江苏中部沿海潮滩对风暴潮的响应过程。结果显示:潮滩剖面在风暴潮期间呈现"低滩侵蚀、沿岸输运、高滩稳定",明显区别于沙质海岸在台风浪作用下"高滩侵蚀、离岸输运、低滩淤积"的演变特征。应用Delft3D平面二维水沙动力数学模型,模拟了正常天气和台风浪情况下的滩面演变,从动力学角度解释了潮滩间不同区域演变特征差异的原因,论证了台风浪对地貌演变的短历时"插曲式"作用,阐明了涨潮优势流是风暴侵蚀后泥沙沿岸向输运的主控因子。 相似文献
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针对带礁缘的复坡珊瑚礁地形,开展4组礁坪水位条件下、不同入射波高和波周期相组合的系列组次规则波试验,分析波高和增水的沿礁变化过程,研究深水波高、波周期和环境水位对破碎波高、破碎位置、礁坪增水和传递波高的影响规律,拟合给出试验地形下的参数化公式。研究表明:破碎波高和破碎位置随深水波高和波周期的增大而增大,受礁坪水位的影响相对较小;礁坪增水和传递波高受礁坪水位的影响较大,增水随水位的抬升而减小,传递波高随水位的抬升而增大;破碎波高和深水波高的比值与深水波陡相关;传递波高和深水波高的比值与礁坪水深深水波高比相关;量纲一破碎位置（破碎点至礁边的水平距离与礁边处浅水波长的比值）及量纲一礁坪增水（礁坪增水和深水波高的比值）均可通过礁边水深与深水波高比建立参数化公式。 相似文献
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以长江口高桥站为研究对象,根据历史资料,用经验分析和统计结合起来的方法,建立风暴潮增水模式,依据流体动力学原理建立二维风暴潮天文潮综合水位模式,尔后以极值气象因子为基础,利用因子组合法及台风位移法分别设计极端台风模型,推算高桥站最大增水及可能最高潮位,并以水文统计频率分析成果作为研究确定长江口ＰＭＴ的佐证。 相似文献
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为对自然界中的复杂水流系统进行整体水动力数值模拟,建立了适用于河湖系统的一维-二维耦合模型.将河网计算中用于处理河段间耦合的汊点水位预测校正法应用到一维-二维耦合边界的处理中,即耦合边界水位预测校正法.该方法具有一维、二维模型计算完全独立,可有效利用现有模型的优点.与传统一维-二维耦合处理方法相比,耦合连接条件的满足程度较高且可通过对计算容差的调整进行有效控制.利用理想及实际例子进行了计算验证,结果表明该方法具有较好的实用性. 相似文献
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渤海湾西岸风暴潮:叠加地质因素的新探讨 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
通过对渤海湾西岸1895年以来11次风暴潮高水位的厘定,证实并确定了50年、100年、200年直至10000年一遇的风暴潮高水位值。定量评估了风增水与波浪对风暴潮高水位的贡献。进一步从地学角度讨论了21世纪10年间隔的海面上升量、地面下沉与围海造陆共同作用、海面上升引发的净增水效应及河口增水效应。根据上述各类参数,预测了至2050年的10年间隔、50~10000年不同重现期的极端水位,并讨论了地面下沉对风暴潮测量准确性的影响。认为当前的防潮堤(海垱)高度可抵御50~100年一遇的风暴潮的侵袭,但据所讨论的综合因素的影响,建议2020年防潮堤的高度应达到+4.8m,2030年达到+5.1m(85高程)。 相似文献
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利用几何分形学的方法,测算了北川县及邻区区域内龙门山断裂的总体分形维和各分带的分形维.再分别对研究区灾害点分布进行总体分形维和各分带分形维测算.通过分析分形维测算结果以及灾害点分布密度,结果表明,断裂带各分带的分形维差异很好的体现了龙门山断裂的构造变形特征.并与各分带的灾害点分布密度呈正相关关系;灾害分布分形维是灾害点分布均匀程度的体现,与断层分布的复杂程度和灾害点分布密度无关.定量的证明了断层分形维、灾害分布分形维和灾害分布密度三者的关系,成功的以定量的形式分析了龙门山断裂对震后次生山地灾害分布的控制. 相似文献
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This paper introduces four kinds of novel bivariate maximum entropy distributions based on bivariate normal copula, Gumbel–Hougaard copula, Clayton copula and Frank copula. These joint distributions consist of two marginal univariate maximum entropy distributions. Four types of Poisson bivariate compound maximum entropy distributions are developed, based on the occurrence frequency of typhoons, on these novel bivariate maximum entropy distributions and on bivariate compound extreme value theory. Groups of disaster-induced typhoon processes since 1949–2001 in Qingdao area are selected, and the joint distribution of extreme water level and corresponding significant wave height in the same typhoon processes are established using the above Poisson bivariate compound maximum entropy distributions. The results show that all these four distributions are good enough to fit the original data. A novel grade of disaster-induced typhoon surges intensity is established based on the joint return period of extreme water level and corresponding significant wave height, and the disaster-induced typhoons in Qingdao verify this grade criterion. 相似文献
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极端天气条件下,波浪引起的高含沙水体会引起航道骤淤,增大航道回淤量。以"马勒卡"台风期间现场水文资料为基础,建立了波流共同作用下的长江口三维潮流泥沙数学模型,研究北槽航道骤淤问题。数学模型验证了"马勒卡"台风期间的北槽水沙过程,相似性较好,通过分离波浪,探讨了潮流与波流共同作用下的含沙量及航道淤积分布差异,研究了台风浪对航道骤淤的影响。研究表明,台风浪对-15 m等深线以浅水域含沙量影响较大,北槽含沙量自上游至口外逐渐增大,改变了常态天气北槽"中间高、两头低"的含沙量分布趋势。台风浪对北槽口内航道回淤分布影响较小,北槽口外航道淤积量剧增,即航道骤淤主要发生在北槽口外。 相似文献
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High precision design wave height is required in extreme marine environments in typhoon-affected sea areas. A new model is built under typhoon effect to calculate the design wave heights. The new model has multiple undetermined parameters, and it is able to fit observed data more flexibly and accurately. In addition, the distribution functions of this new model are based on the maximum entropy principle. Therefore, they can avoid the apriority, which means arbitrarily assigning Poisson distribution to describe the distribution of typhoon occurrence frequency and assigning Gumbel distribution or Pearson-III distribution to describe the distribution of extreme events in the process of applying the compound distribution to deduce the design elevations. The observed data of 18-year (1984–2001) extreme wave heights and the corresponding typhoon events in Maidao are used to test the model. Test results show that the new model is theoretically more stable and more precise when predicting the design wave heights under the typhoon-affected sea areas. 相似文献
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December 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean region has been simulated using MIKE-21 HD model. The vertical displacement of the seabed is incorporated into the numerical simulation by using time-varying bathymetry data. In the open ocean, sea surface height from altimeter observation has been used to validate the model results. To the west of the rupture zone, the crest is observed to precede the trough of the tsunami waves while to the east, trough preceded the crest. The model performance along the coastal region has been validated using de-tided sea levels from tide gauge measurements at Tuticorin, Chennai, Vishakapattanam, and Paradip ports along the east coast of India. Unique coastal characteristics of the tsunami waves, wave height, and wave celerity are reasonably simulated by the numerical model. Spectral analysis of tide gauge observations and corresponding model results has been done, and the distribution of frequency peaks from the analysis of gauge observations and the model results is observed to have a reasonable comparison. Low-frequency waves, contributed from the coastally trapped edge waves, are found to dominate both the tide gauge observations and the model results. The subsequent increase in the tsunami wave height observed at Chennai, Vishakapattanam, and Paradip has been explained on the basis of coastally trapped edge waves. From the validation studies using altimeter data and tide gauge data, it is observed that the model can be used effectively to simulate the tsunami wave height in the offshore as well as in the coastal region with satisfying performance. 相似文献
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近年来珠江口海域航道治理、桥梁工程、港口建设等大型水上工程建设项目越来越多,水工建筑物安全的重要性和对台风浪灾害破坏的敏感性是大型工程重点关注的要素之一,采用台风浪数学模型分析计算极端天气条件对港珠澳大桥岛桥结合部人工岛设计波浪要素的影响。分析统计1949—2014年影响广东省沿海地区的登陆台风资料,采用随机模型分析珠江口地区300年一遇的台风气压降和登陆最大风速参数;建立珠江口水域的台风浪数学模型;选取不利台风登陆路径,采用300年一遇台风参数组合计算极端天气条件下珠江口内东西人工岛的设计波浪要素,对原设计波要素进行复核。可为其他海洋工程项目设计提供新的思路和研究方法。 相似文献
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黄浦江风暴潮位、区间降雨量和上游来水量遭遇分析 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
分析了黄浦江水位的主要影响因子及其相关关系。建立了黄浦江吴淞口潮位与太湖地区降雨量的联合分布模型,计算出不同频率的吴淞口设计水痊与不同频率的太湖地区设计降十量及相应的黄浦江区间降雨量相遭遇的概率,并采用水动力学模型结合外包方法确定出相应组合频率下的黄浦江设计水面线,为上海市远期设防标准的确定提供决策支持,并为论证吴淞口建闸的必要性提供科学依据。 相似文献
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珠江磨刀门水道地处亚热带季风气候区,直面南海,容易受到热带风暴的袭击。选取台风"纳沙",采用SCHISM模型建立磨刀门水道三维水流盐度数值模型,通过数值试验对比,结合势能异常分析法,探究了台风期间波浪和局地风对磨刀门水道混合与层化的影响。结果显示:由于近岸及河道内水深较浅,波高整体较小,波浪对水体层化过程影响不大,对流速分布有一定的调整作用,使其分布更为均匀,并在一定程度上加强水体掺混,利于外海高浓度盐水向河口和海岸扩散。而台风期间强劲的局地风对垂向水体状态以及势能异常变化率各项均有显著作用,影响着盐淡水的层化混合过程。 相似文献
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For the Xiamen coast where typhoon frequently occurs, beaches are subject to severe erosion during typhoons. To investigate storm-induced beach profile changes at Xiamen coast, four inner XBeach models were applied using typhoon Dan as a case study. These numerical simulations utilized hydrodynamic and wave conditions determined from larger-scale outer and middle coupled Delft3D-FLOW and SWAN models. The models were validated against historic measurements of tidal level, storm tide, storm surge and beach profiles, thus showing the accuracy of outer and middle models to provide boundary conditions and the reliability of inner models to reflect beach profile changes during a typhoon process. The applicability of this modeling approach to Xiamen coast was verified. The results also demonstrated that an enormous amount of dune face erosion occurred at the selected beaches during the typhoon Dan process and the slopes in the vicinity of zero elevation for the chosen four beach profiles all turned out to be gentler after typhoon Dan. Nevertheless, these beaches suffered different impact degrees and processes during the typhoon influence period. Compared to swash and collision regimes, overwash and inundation regimes have the ability to alter beach profile rapidly in short time. Post-storm beach profile with and without vegetation indicated that vegetation is capable of protecting coastal beaches to some extent. By running the nested models, the simulated results can be employed in the management of the beach system and the design of beach nourishment projects at Xiamen coast.
相似文献20.
Shinya Shimokawa Tomokazu Murakami Satoshi Iizuka Jun Yoshino Takashi Yasuda 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):2037-2052
We developed the new typhoon bogussing scheme to obtain the possible maximum typhoon approaching any region under any climatic conditions by using a potential vorticity inversion method. Numerical simulations with the new typhoon bogussing scheme are conducted for assessment of storm surges by possible maximum typhoons under the present-day and global warming climatic conditions in Ise and Tokyo Bays in Japan. The results suggest that the storm tide higher than the maximum storm tide in recorded history can occur in Ise and Tokyo Bays even for the present-day climate and the storm tide higher than the design sea level can cause severe damage to Nagoya and Tokyo megacities, in particular, airport facilities in Ise Bay for the global warming climate. These results suggest that the new typhoon bogussing scheme we developed is useful for assessment of impacts of storm surge by the possible maximum typhoons. 相似文献