共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Summary A principal component analysis (PCA) based on a network including 179 pluviometric gauges is attempted in order to describe the main patterns governing precipitation in Catalonia (NE Spain). This PCA procedure is applied to the interstation covariance matrix and component loadings are then deduced from it and extensively interpreted. PCA results are used immediately after in a Davis and Kalkstein clustering process, leading to a rainfall division. The homogeneity of the different groups obtained is tested by means of the analysis of their spatial and temporal within-group variances.With 8 Figures 相似文献
2.
C. Serra G. Fernández Mills M. C. Periago X. Lana 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1996,54(3-4):175-186
Summary A principal component analysis (PCA), based on a network consisting of 60 pluviometric gauges and their daily precipitation data, is attempted in order to describe the main winter and autumn patterns governing precipitation in Catalonia (NE Spain). This PCA procedure is applied to the interstation correlation matrix and rotated component loadings are then deduced and extensively interpreted. The PCA results are then used in a clustering process (Average Linkage), leading to two rainfall divisions, one for each season, which are then compared.With 5 Figures 相似文献
3.
Summary Seven series of monthly pluviometric amounts, sometimes exceeding recording periods of 100 years and compiled by the Instituto Nacional de Meteorología (Spain), are used to study the irregularity of the pluviometric regime along the Spanish Mediterranean coast and nearby Atlantic
coast. First of all, three statistical functions (gamma, log-normal and a combination of Poisson and gamma distributions)
and moment-ratio diagrams are used to model the monthly and annual empirical distributions of precipitation amounts, each
distribution being tested by means of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. It is noteworthy that, whereas most of the monthly cases
require the gamma distribution, the pluviometric behaviour of the summer months is well described by the Poisson-gamma distribution.
Moreover, both the log-normal and the gamma distributions satisfactorily model empirical annual amounts. Consequently, rainfall
amounts are not identically distributed along a year for each gauge tested. Second, temporal trends deduced for annual and
seasonal amounts are computed and their statistical significance evaluated. The most notable fact is that, although some linear
trends are close to 1 mm/year, their significance levels exceed the assumed threshold value and, excepting the winter season
for Barcelona, they are considered non-significant from a statistical point of view. Finally, by again using monthly and annual
amounts, three temporal irregularity indexes are computed for each pluviometric series, the temporal disparity of the rainfall
patterns of the Mediterranean region being enhanced as a result. It addition to the temporal irregularity, a change with latitude
is observed both in the parameters of the statistical distributions and the temporal irregularity indexes for the rain gauges
analysed. The two most southerly rain gauges constitute a special case in comparison with the remaining stations, because
they also receive the Atlantic influences due to their proximity to this ocean.
Received February 25, 1999/Revised August 2, 1999 相似文献
4.
《Atmospheric Research》2010,95(4):629-640
An important issue in pluviometric data analysis from rain gauges is the verification of their consistency. In general, this attribute is assessed using double-mass curves. This technique compares cumulative monthly rainfall from a gauge with that averaged from meteorological stations located nearby. The aim of this study was to analyze the quality of monthly rainfall data registered in Galicia (NW Spain) in a five year period (2002–2006). Initially, 159 meteorological stations were evaluated; however, 59 gauges were withdrawn because 10% of their data were missing. Double-mass analysis was performed following two procedures: a) data from each gauge were compared to those obtained in the nearby main station and b) data from each site were compared to the average from five nearby gauges, including data from neighboring regions. The second procedure proved to be more reliable. Rainfall data did not show any outlier for the study period. Determination coefficients were greater than 0.95 in all cases. A graphical analysis showed some deviations from the trend lines in certain stations. First, rainfall maps were obtained by inverse distances weighting. Furthermore, a comprehensive geostatistical analysis, centered in the characterization of the structure of rainfall spatial variability, was performed. Differences between two kriging methods, ordinary and kriging with an external drift, were confirmed, considering the later as a more appropriate technique for rainfall interpolation in the region. 相似文献
5.
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - A gridded 0.25° reconstruction of rainfall kinetic energy (RKE) over the UK, on the basis of pluviometric observations and reanalysis back to 1765, shows... 相似文献
6.
X. Lana M. D. Martínez C. Serra A. Burgueño 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2005,82(3-4):183-198
Summary Several patterns of a daily pluviometric regime are obtained from an homogeneous set of daily rainfall recorded at the Fabra Observatory (NE Spain) for the period 1917–1999. Power spectral analyses of four annual pluviometric indices, determined from different daily rain amount percentiles, are performed. Periodicities of the quasi-biannual oscillation (QBO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and sunspot cycles are correlated in some cases with empirical spectral peaks of the indices exceeding Markov red-noise with a confidence level of 95%. Depending on the rainy day percentiles, a set of short periods (2.1–4.6 years), a second group of intermediate periods (5.5 and 9.2 years) and, finally, a third group of long periods of 11.8, 20.8 and 41.5 years can be distinguished. These periods are compared with those derived for other European and African emplacements. Additionally, the consecutive irregularity of every annual series is quantified by means of a concept similar to the entropy. 相似文献
7.
The main objective of the present paper is to show a methodology for undertaking rainfall regionalization of a region taking into account the convective features of the precipitation, and useful for establishing homogeneous zones for improving the alert system. This methodology has been applied to a hydrographic region located in northeast Spain, with an area of 16000 km2 and characterized by a highly contrasted topography. Information provided by meteorological radar and 5-min precipitation data for 126 automatic raingauges has been used for the period 1996–2002. The previous analysis done on the basis of the 1927–1981 rainfall rate series for the Jardí raingauge, located in Barcelona, has also been considered. To that end, the first step was to draw up a proposal for classification of the pluviometric episodes. Recourse was had for this purpose to definition of the β parameter, related with the greater or lesser convective character of the event and calculated on the basis of the rainfall intensity at the surface (Llasat, 2001) and, when data are available, on the basis of radar reflectivity. Results show that the threshold of 35 mm/h to characterize convective episodes from raingauge data can be corroborated from the radar point of view when convective precipitation is identified using 2-D algorithms with a reflectivity threshold of 43 dBZ. Once the soundness of the β parameter had been corroborated, it was applied to more than 2900 precipitation episodes recorded in the region, in order to discriminate the features of the different subregions and their time and space distribution throughout the entire series of the samples. Using this definition, 92% of the precipitation events recorded in this region, with accumulated rainfall above 35 mm, are classified as convective ones, representing 95% of the precipitation amount. Application of the β parameter combined with monthly rainfall data allows differentiation of 8 regions with different convective precipitation features. 相似文献
8.
Leoncio García-Barrón Julia Morales Arturo Sousa 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,114(3-4):445-457
Variability in precipitation affects annual total records and causes instability in rainfall distribution throughout the year. Our aim in this study was to develop a procedure, based on pluviometric centralisation and dispersion parameters, that is able to characterise rainfall distribution throughout a year of precipitation in a unique, condensed and precise manner. This enabled the evolution of intra-annual precipitation from 1837 to 2010 in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula to be determined. The obtained results showed irregular oscillations of the parameters during the selected period. Specifically, patterns of precipitation in recent decades revealed the following differentiating features: the displacement of the most intense rainy periods in autumn with a consequent decrease in precipitation in spring, and more erratic distribution throughout the year with an increase of the frequency of intra-annual dispersion peaks. 相似文献
9.
Summary Rainfall anomaly patterns are obtained for the city of Barcelona from a statistical and a spectral point of view. The time
series consists of monthly rainfall amounts recorded over 128 years without interruption. Monthly positive and negative anomalies,
obtained as the difference between monthly amounts and monthly threshold values, are used for both types of analyses. The
threshold levels are derived form the deciles of theoretical monthly rainfall distributions, which have been previously modelled
by the gamma distribution. Positive and negative anomalies of the monthly rain amounts are investigated for these threshold
levels. The statistical analysis is applied to each decile considered, yielding empirical exponential laws that can be used
to forecast the cumulative number of episodes of consecutive months with either positive or negative anomalies equalling or
exceeding a fixed length. A set of linear laws, relating the expected rainfall amount cumulated during an episode of a fixed
length, is also deduced. It is worthy of mention that, independently of the decile considered, all the exponential and linear
laws have satisfactory regression coefficients. At the same time, it has also been possible to establish the evolution of
the coefficients of these laws with respect to the different deciles considered. The exponential laws for episodes of positive
and negative anomalies are the starting point, together with two hypotheses, to model probabilities of repeated long episodes
over an arbitrary number of years and their return periods in terms of the Poisson distribution model. Moreover, power spectra
are derived for anomalies relative to the 50% decile at monthly and seasonal scale. The spectral estimates obtained are then
compared with theoretical spectra deduced from possible Markovian or random behaviour of the time series of anomalies. Finally,
the significant spectral peaks are discussed and compared with other significant spectral components deduced for some areas
of the Mediterranean domain.
Received November 11, 1999 Revised February 28, 2000 相似文献
10.
登陆广东热带气旋的降水分布和移速变化 总被引：2，自引：4，他引：2
利用1980～2001年登陆广东的72个热带气旋的路径和降水资料,计算了热带气旋登陆前后的移动速度和加速度,比较分析了热带气旋主要降水落区与热带气旋移速变化的关系.计算结果统计表明登陆广东的热带气旋中,有66.1%的个例在登陆时移速加快.当主要降水落区位于热带气旋前进方向右侧时,热带气旋的12小时平均加速度为正的占了大部分(81.8%);当主要降水落区位于热带气旋前进方向左侧时,近八成(78.6%)的热带气旋平均加速度为负.这些统计结果进一步从诊断事实上说明了地形以及非绝热加热等因子对台风移动的可能影响. 相似文献
11.
Probabilities of Repeated Long Dry Episodes Based on the Poisson Distribution. An Example for Catalonia (NE Spain) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Summary A formulation, similar to the procedure employed in seismic risk analysis, has allowed us to quantify probabilities concerning
repeated long episodes of dry days for an arbitrary number of years and their return periods. This formulation is based on
both a cumulative expression, similar to the well known Gutemberg-Richter seismic law, and the Poisson distribution. We will
assume that this latter distribution is applicable, provided that some constraints affecting the length of the dry episodes
and their average number recorded on a year are satisfied. In comparison with other methodologies, based on either Markov
chains or Gumbell and Jenkinson formulations, we have been able to quantify probabilities concerning repeated long episodes,
including extreme events, contributing significantly to the generation of drought episodes. The formulations that we introduce
has been applied to sets of dry episodes obtained from daily pluviometric recordings belonging to 69 gauges of the Instituto Nacional de Meteorología located in Catalonia (NE Spain). The results obtained in terms of return period maps, return period-length curves and probabilities
for repeated episodes and for an arbitrary number of years are in agreement with previous pluviometric studies and the spatial
diversity of the region due to its orographic complexity. The more relevant synoptic situations causing the long dry episodes
are summarized and briefly described.
Received June 24, 1997 Revised October 28, 1997 相似文献
12.
13.
Summary Three empirical distributions of the daily rainfall collected at the Fabra Observatory from 1917 to 1999 are fitted to different statistical models. The first two are designated as the distributions of cumulative amounts and cumulative times. The third distribution accounts for the time interval between two consecutive rainy days with rain amounts equalling or exceeding a threshold amount. Whereas the distribution of cumulative amounts follows an exponential model at monthly and annual scale, except for a few cases, the distribution of the cumulative times is well modelled by a Weibull function, whether monthly or annual scales are considered. The distribution of time intervals also follows a Weibull distribution for the different thresholds considered. In addition, the combination of the two first distributions leads to the normalised rainfall curve, NRC, which is also reproduced satisfactorily by a beta (type 1) distribution. It is worth mentioning that the NRCs follow the expected behaviour with respect to the coefficient of variation of daily rain amounts at monthly and annual scales. In addition, a better understanding of fluctuations and time trends affecting the daily pluviometric regime is achieved by analysing the annual NRCs. The impact of some features of this rain regime, developed for Barcelona, a crowded metropolitan area, on many human activities, may provides the focus of future interdisciplinary analyses. 相似文献
14.
Summary The paper describes some characteristics of the precipitation patterns in the plain of Friuli-Venezia Giulia. Even if small,
this Region shows a complex rainfall pattern so that, by previous studies, it was divided into four distinct areas with peculiar
pluviometric regimes, namely the Coastal Area, the Plain and Hills Area, the Prealpine Area and the Inner Alpine Area. Nowadays
a new data set, collected by the ERSA/CSA automatic stations, allows to propose a new sub-classification of the Coastal Area
and Plain and Hills Area, under the point of view of the hourly rate of precipitation. This new sub-classification is composed
by five zones: the Coast, the Carso, the Low Plain, the Middle Plain and the Piedmont. Each one of these zones presents a
peculiar seasonal behaviour of the hourly rain-rate.
Received May 31, 1999 Revised September 27, 1999 相似文献
15.
1998年夏季HUBEX/GAME期间热量和水汽收支(英) 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
By using the high-resolution GAME reanalysis data, the heat and moisture budgets during the period of HUBEX/GAME in the summer of 1998 are calculated for exploring the thermodynamic features of Meiyu over the Changjiang-Huaihe (CH) valley. During the CH Meiyu period, an intensive vertically-integrated heat source and moisture sink are predominant over the heavy rainfall area of the CH valley, accompanied by strong upward motion at 500 hPa. The heat and moisture budgets show that the main diabatic heating component is condensation latent heat released by rainfall. As residual terms, the evaporation and sensible heating are relatively small. Based on the vertical distribution of the heat source and moisture sink, the nature of the rainfall is mixed, in which the convective rainfall is dominant with a considerable percentage of continuous stratiform rainfall. There are similar time evolutions of the main physical parameters(〈Q1〉,〈Q2〉,and vertical motion ω at 500 hPa).The time variations of〈Q1〉and〈Q2〉are in phase with those of -ω500, and have their main peaks within the CH Meiyu period. This shows the influence of the heat source on the dynamic structure of the atmosphere. The wavelet analyses of those time series display similar multiple timescale characteristics. During the CH Meiyu period, both the synoptic scale(～6 days) and mesoscale (～2 days and ～12 hours) increase obviously and cause heavy rainfall as well as the appearances of the maxima of the main physical parameters. Among them, the mesoscale systems are the main factors. 相似文献
16.
采用TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)降水和云特征数据集,对南海2001年1月至2012年3月不同回波顶高对流系统的垂直结构、表面降雨率、数量时空分布的季节变化进行统计分析。结果表明:①浅对流、较深对流、深对流大于20dBz的回波区分别分布在4～8km、4～10km、4～14km之间;浅对流20dBz回波顶高的频率峰值为9km;冬季,较深对流、深对流20dBz回波顶高的频率峰值分别为13km、14.5km,其余季节偏高分别为14.5km、16km。②较深对流和深对流是南海地区面积平均降雨率较强的2种主要的降水系统;夏秋两季,较深对流的降雨率大于深对流;冬春两季,深对流的降雨率大于较深对流。③较深对流、深对流出现频次最少的季节为冬季,浅对流则为春季。④浅对流偏向于出现在12°N以南;深对流偏向于出现在12°N以北;较深对流在冬春季节集中在12°N以南,夏秋季节横贯南海。⑤夏秋两季在南海北部出现气旋性辐合上升的差异中心,南海中南部的西南水汽输送差异与700hPa以下水汽的辐合差异,是较深对流在夏秋两季比冬春两季带来更强降雨率的主要原因。 相似文献
17.
Athanasios F. Karagiannidis Theodore Karacostas Panagiotis Maheras Timoleon Makrogiannis 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,107(1-2):165-174
Climatic aspects of extreme European precipitation are studied. Daily pluviometric data from 280 stations across Europe, covering the period from 1958 to 2000, are used. First, the criteria for extreme precipitation cases and episodes are communicated using threshold and spatial definitions. The cases and episodes meeting these criteria are grouped according to their area of appearance. Most of them are located in three major areas: Greece, the Alps, and the Iberian Peninsula. The existence of trends in the annual and seasonal time series of these extreme events is examined. Decreasing trends are found in most of the cases, for Greece, the Iberian Peninsula, and Europe, as a whole. The Alps present a different behavior, with no trend at all in the southern part, and a possible increasing trend in the northern part. Finally, the positive impact of altitude in the frequency of occurrence of extreme precipitation episodes in Europe is discussed. 相似文献
18.
J. A. Mabbutt 《Climatic change》1989,15(1-2):191-221
Tropical semi-arid climates occur between 10 and 35 deg latitude and are characterised by highly variable summer rainfall of between 300 and 750 mm in a rainy season of at least 4 months, generally adequate for rainfed cropping but with considerable drought risk. They support a mesic savanna vegetation. They have a land extent of 4.5 million km2, mainly occupied by Third World nations with rapidly increasing populations which in the main are predominantly rural and largely agricultural with low per capita incomes, consequently vulnerable to climate change. A doubling of atmospheric CO2 by the year 2030 is predicted to cause a rise in equilibrium mean temperature of 1–3 °C; however there is continuing uncertainty regarding the consequences for rainfall amount, variability and intensity, length of rainy season or the frequency of extreme rainfall events. Two scenarios are considered, with reduction and increase in rainfall respectively, involving corresponding latitudinal shifts in present climatic boundaries of about 200 km. Because of their variability, a clear signal of the greenhouse effect on these climates may be delayed, whilst regional responses may differ. Vegetational and hydrological responses under the alternative scenarios are considered. The possible consequences for rainfed and irrigated agriculture, water and energy supplies and disease and pest ecology are discussed. Lands of the semi-arid tropics are already extensively desertified, with consequent lowered productivity and heightened vulnerability to drought, and the possible impacts of greenhouse warming on desertification processes and on measures for land rehabilition to the year 2030 are reviewed. Measures to conserve the biological diversity of savanna lands in face of greenhouse warming are discussed. 相似文献
19.
Mountain ecosystems have been projected to experience faster rates of warming than surrounding lowlands. These changes in climatic conditions could have significant impacts on high-altitude Andean environments, affecting the quality and magnitude of their economic and environmental services. Even though long-term data in these regions are limited, it is important to identify any discernible long-term trends in local climatic conditions. Time series of several variables were analyzed to detect statistically significant long-term linear trends that occurred over recent years in a páramo ecosystem of the Colombian Central Andes. Records included cloud characteristics, sunshine, rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures, diurnal temperature range, and relative humidity. Conditions of atmospheric stability were also explored. Total sunshine exhibited decreasing trends ranging from ?3.7 to ?8.5% per decade at altitudes around the pluviometric optimum. The strongest changes in sunshine occurred during the December-January-February season. Mean relative humidity observed at altitudes around and below this threshold showed increasing trends of +0.6 to +0.7% per decade. Annual rainfall and mean relative humidity above the optimum showed decreasing trends ranging from ?7 to ?11% per decade and from ?1.5 to ?3.6% per decade, respectively. Minimum temperatures on the coldest days and maximum temperatures on the warmest days exhibited increasing trends at all altitudes ranging from +0.1 to +0.6, and from +0.2 to +1.1°C per decade, respectively. Increases in minimum and maximum temperatures at higher altitudes were significantly greater than those observed in average at lower altitudes. The strongest changes in minimum temperatures, particularly, occurred during the December–January–February and June–July–August dry seasons. All these changes suggest that atmospheric conditions in the area are shifting from statically unstable conditions to conditionally unstable or statically stable conditions. Observed historical trends indicate that climate impacts and other human activities have stressed these unique and fragile environments. 相似文献
20.
预测川渝地区汛期降水量的一种物理统计模型 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7
应用川渝地区20个测站汛期(6～8月)降水距平百分率资料,分析了四川盆地汛期降水分布型及其形成的前期信号,提出了四川盆地汛期降水主要存在"东西振荡"、"一致分布"和"南北振荡"三类分布型.针对这三类典型的降水分布型,得到了川渝地区主汛期降水及其预测强信号的关系:春季西太平洋暖池强度偏强或上年秋冬季青藏高原位势高度场偏高时,当年川渝地区主汛期降水表现为西多东少,反之,则表现为西少东多.即出现了"东西振荡型";1～3月西风带极锋锋区位置偏北或上年冬春季青藏高原地区100hPa位势高度场偏低时,当年川渝地区主汛期降水偏多,反之,则降水偏少.即出现了"一致分布型".上年夏季西风环流强度指数偏强时,当年川渝地区主汛期降水表现为南多北少,反之,则表现为南少北多.即出现了"南北振荡型".利用这些强信号作因子场,在引入"方差权重"思想的基础上,建立了预测川渝地区主汛期降水的一种物理统计模型.通过对1996～2001年共6年的实际业务预报,预测效果令人满意. 相似文献