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1.
Robert Shcherbakov Donald L. Turcotte John B. Rundle Kristy F. Tiampo James R. Holliday 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2010,167(6-7):743-749
The objective of this paper is to quantify the use of past seismicity to forecast the locations of future large earthquakes and introduce optimization methods for the model parameters. To achieve this the binary forecast approach is used where the surface of the Earth is divided into l° × l° cells. The cumulative Benioff strain of m ≥ m c earthquakes that occurred during the training period, ΔT tr, is used to retrospectively forecast the locations of large target earthquakes with magnitudes ≥m T during the forecast period, ΔT for. The success of a forecast is measured in terms of hit rates (fraction of earthquakes forecast) and false alarm rates (fraction of alarms that do not forecast earthquakes). This binary forecast approach is quantified using a receiver operating characteristic diagram and an error diagram. An optimal forecast can be obtained by taking the maximum value of Pierce’s skill score. 相似文献
2.
--It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes. 相似文献
3.
We investigate spatio-temporal properties of earthquake patterns in the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), California, between Cajon Pass and the Superstition Hill Fault, using a long record of simulated seismicity constrained by available seismological and geological data. The model provides an effective realization of a large segmented strike-slip fault zone in a 3D elastic half-space, with heterogeneous distribution of static friction chosen to represent several clear step-overs at the surface. The simulated synthetic catalog reproduces well the basic statistical features of the instrumental seismicity recorded at the SJFZ area since 1981. The model also produces events larger than those included in the short instrumental record, consistent with paleo-earthquakes documented at sites along the SJFZ for the last 1,400 years. The general agreement between the synthetic and observed data allows us to address with the long-simulated seismicity questions related to large earthquakes and expected seismic hazard. The interaction between m ≥ 7 events on different sections of the SJFZ is found to be close to random. The hazard associated with m ≥ 7 events on the SJFZ increases significantly if the long record of simulated seismicity is taken into account. The model simulations indicate that the recent increased number of observed intermediate SJFZ earthquakes is a robust statistical feature heralding the occurrence of m ≥ 7 earthquakes. The hypocenters of the m ≥ 5 events in the simulation results move progressively towards the hypocenter of the upcoming m ≥ 7 earthquake. 相似文献
4.
B. C. Papazachos E. E. Papadimitriou G. F. Karakaisis D. G. Panagiotopoulos 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1997,149(1):173-217
Investigation of the time-dependent seismicity in 274 seismogenic regions of the entire continental fracture system indicates that strong shallow earthquakes in each region exhibit short as well as intermediate term time clustering (duration extending to several years) which follow a power-law time distribution. Mainshocks, however (interevent times of the order of decades), show a quasiperiodic behaviour and follow the ‘regional time and magnitude predictable seismicity model’. This model is expressed by the following formulas $$\begin{gathered} \log T_t = 0.19 M_{\min } + 0.33 M_p - 0.39 \log m_0 + q \hfill \\ M_f = 0.73 M_{\min } - 0.28 M_p + 0.40 \log m_0 + m \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ which relate the interevent time,T t (in years), and the surface wave magnitude,M f , of the following mainshock: with the magnitude,M min, of the smallest mainshock considered, the magnitude,M p , of the preceded mainshock and the moment rate,m 0 (in dyn.cm.yr?1), in a seismogenic region. The values of the parametersq andm vary from area to area. The basic properties of this model are described and problems related to its physical significance are discussed. The first of these relations, in combination with the hypothesis that the ratioT/T t , whereT is the observed interevent time, follows a lognormal distribution, has been used to calculate the probability for the occurrence of the next very large mainshock (M s ≥7.0) during the decade 1993–2002 in each of the 141 seismogenic regions in which the circum-Pacific convergent belt has been separated. The second of these relations has been used to estimate the magnitude of the expected mainshock in each of the regions. 相似文献
5.
Víctor Hugo Márquez-Rámirez F. Alejandro Nava Pichardo Gabriel Reyes-Dávila 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2012,169(12):2091-2105
We explore fractal properties of two observed seismicity distributions prior to the 2003 M w 7.4 Colima, Mexico and 1992 M w 7.3 Landers, USA earthquakes, together with several mathematical fractal distributions and two non-fractal ones, in order to estimate minimum reliable sample sizes, determine whether fractality for observed seismicity is essentially different from random uniform distributions, and explore the possibility of extracting premonitory information from fractal characteristics of seismicity before large earthquakes. Sample sizes above 800 events for whole catalogs appear to be sufficient to maintain ordered multifractality and to yield dimension estimates that vary smoothly and reliably. Fractal estimates appear to be best for whole catalogs that include aftershocks. The fractal characteristics of spatial distributions of seismicity are essentially different from those of the uniform random distribution, which is the null hypothesis of a non-fractal distribution with minimum information. The fractal dimensions and afractality measures of seismicity distributions change with time and show distinctive behaviors associated with foreshocks and main events, although these behaviors are different for each example. Results suggest the possibility of a priori identification of foreshocks to large earthquakes. A combination of fractal dimension and afractality measures over time may be helpful in large earthquake premonitory studies. 相似文献
6.
The presence of a phenomenological relationship between high velocity regions in the Benioff zone and sources of relatively strong earthquakes (M ≥ 6) was established for the first time from the comparison of such earthquakes with the velocity structure of central Kamchatka in the early 1970s. It was found that, in the region with P wave velocities of 8.1–8.5 km/s, the number of M ≥ 6 earthquakes over 1926–1965 was 2.5 times greater than their number in the region with velocities of 7.5–8.0 km/s. Later (in 1979), within the southern Kurile area, Sakhalin seismologists established that regions with V P = 7.3–7.7 km/s are associated with source zones of M = 7.0–7.6 earthquakes and regions with V P = 8.1–8.4 km/s are associated with M = 7.9–8.4 earthquakes. In light of these facts, we compared the positions of M = 7.0–7.4 earthquake sources in the Benioff zone of southern Kamchatka over the period 1907–1993 with the distribution of regions of high P velocities (8.0–8.5 to 8.5–9.0 km/s) derived from the interpretation of arrival time residuals at the Shipunskii station from numerous weak earthquakes in this zone (more than 2200 events of M = 2.3–4.9) over the period 1983–1995. This comparison is possible only in the case of long-term stability of the velocity field within the Benioff zone. This stability is confirmed by the relationship between velocity parameters and tectonics in the southern part of the Kurile arc, where island blocks are confined to high velocity regions in the Benioff zone and the straits between islands are confined to low velocity regions. The sources of southern Kamchatka earthquakes with M = 7.0–7.4, which are not the strongest events, are located predominantly within high velocity regions and at their boundaries with low velocity regions; i.e., the tendency previously established for the strongest earthquakes of the southern Kuriles and central Kamchatka is confirmed. However, to demonstrate more definitely their association with regions of high P wave velocities, a larger statistics of such earthquakes is required. On the basis of a direct correlation between P wave velocities and densities, the distributions of density, bulk modulus K, and shear modulus μ in the upper mantle of the Benioff zone of southern Kamchatka are obtained for the first time. Estimated densities vary from 3.6–3.9 g/cm3 in regions of high V P values to 3.0–3.2 g/cm3 for regions of low V P values. The bulk modulus K in the same velocity regions varies from (1.4–1.8) × 1012 to (0.8–1.1) × 1012 dyn/cm2, respectively, and the shear modulus μ varies from (0.8–1.0) × 1012 to (0.5–0.7) × 1012 dyn/cm2, respectively. Examination of the spatial correlation of the source areas of southern Kamchatka M = 7.0–7.4 earthquakes with the distribution of elastic moduli in the Benioff zone failed to reveal any relationship between their magnitudes and the moduli because of the insufficient statistics of the earthquakes used. 相似文献
7.
Emile A. Okal 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1990,134(3):333-354
We extend to the case of intermediate and deep earthquakes the mantle magnitude developed for shallow shocks byokal andTalandier (1989). Specifically, from the measurement of the spectral amplitude of Rayleigh waves at a single station, we obtain a mantle magnitude,M m, theoretically related to the seismic moment of the event through $$M_m = \log _{10} M_0 - 20.$$ The computation ofM minvolves two corrections. The distance correction is the same as for shallow shocks. For the purpose of computing the frequency-dependent source correction, we define three depth windows: Intermediate (A) (75 to 200 km); Intermediate (B) (200–400 km) and Deep (over 400 km). In each window, the source correctionC S is modeled by a cubic spline of log10 T. Analysis of a dataset of 200 measurements (mostly from GEOSCOPE stations) shows that the seismic moment of the earthquakes is recovered with a standard deviation of 0.23 units of magnitude, and a mean bias of only 0.14 unit. These figures are basically similar to those for shallow events. Our method successfully recognizes truly large deep events, such as the 1970 Colombia shock, and errors due to the potential misclassification of events into the wrong depth window are minimal. 相似文献
8.
A major swarm of intraplate earthquakes at the southeastern end of the Gilbert Islands Chain (3.5°S, 177.5°E) commenced in December 1981 and lasted through March 1983. No seismicity had been reported in the historical record in this region prior to 1981, but during the swarm 217 events with mb ? 4.0 were located by the NEIS, with 86 events having mb ? 5.0. The source region is quite remote, and the uniform detection level for the NEIS is for mb ? 4.8. A b-value of 1.35 is found for the swarm using the maximum likelihood method. Four events in the sequence were large enough (mb = 5.6?5.9) to determine focal mechanisms teleseismically using body- and surface-wave analysis. These events are found to have a range of mechanisms, from predominantly thrust with a significant oblique component, to purely strike-slip. The compression axes are consistent for all four events, with horizontal orientation trending NNE-SSW. This orientation is perpendicular to the direction of plate motion. The events are located at depths between 15 and 20 km placing them deep in the oceanic crust or in the upper mantle. No obvious bathymetric feature can be related to the fault plane orientations, though there is an offset in the island chain near the epicenters. While some characteristics of the swarm suggest a magmatic origin, the nature of the focal mechanisms, the location of the swarm, and the large accumulated moment release of the sequence favor a tectonic origin. 相似文献
9.
Katsuyuki Abe 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1985,38(4):214-223
The size of major tsunamigenic earthquakes which occurred in the Japan Sea is quantified on the basis of seismic and tsunamigenic source parameters. The tsunami magnitude Mt is determined from the instrumental tsunami-wave amplitudes. The Mt values thus obtained are on average 0.2 units larger than the values of moment magnitude Mw, though the Mt scale has originally been adjusted to agree with Mw. Moreover, the volume of displaced water at the source is on average 2.3 times as large as that for the Pacific events with a comparable Mw. Nevertheless, the observed height of the sea-level disturbance at the source is found consistent with the amount of crustal deformation computed for the seismic fault models. These results indicate that the tsunami source potential itself is large for Mw in comparison with the Pacific events. The large source potential is explained in terms of the effective difference both in the rigidity of the source medium and in the geometry of the fault motion. For the Japan Sea events, the Mt scale still provides the physical measure of the tsunami potential, and Mt minus 0.2 corresponds to Mw. This predicts that the maximum amplitude of tsunami waves from Japan Sea earthquakes is at least two times as large as that from Pacific earthquakes with a comparable Mw. 相似文献
10.
G. A. Sobolev 《Journal of Volcanology and Seismology》2007,1(3):198-211
Premonitory phases (seismic quiescence and foreshock activity) have been retrospectively identified before the Neftegorsk and Uglegorsk earthquakes using the RTL technique. The probabilities that these phases were accidental are less than 1 and 2%, respectively. This allows an optimistic assessment of the possibility of applying this technique to seismicity at Sakhalin. The estimates of the time and energy class for the two earthquakes, using a model of self-organized seismic criticality, proved to be unconvincing because obvious acceleration of the seismic process prior to these seismic events did not occur. The applicability of this approach to the seismicity at Sakhalin should be tested for future large earthquakes. The regional Sakhalin catalog for 1980–2000, with a lowest completely reported energy class of K = 8 (lent by the Geophysical Service, Russian Academy of Sciences) was used as the database for this study. 相似文献
11.
The Sakarya prefecture is an interesting area with various seismicity types. This activity comes from earthquakes occurring at the North Anatolian Fault Zone and from a few quarry blast areas in the region. These quarry blast recordings produce errors in the determination of active faults and mapping of the microearthquake activity. Therefore, to recognize the tectonic activity in the region, we need to be able to discriminate between earthquakes and quarry blasts in the catalogues. In this study, a statistical analysis method (linear discriminant function) has been applied to classify seismic events occurring in the Sakarya region. We used 110 seismic events that were recorded by Sakarya University Seismic Station between 2012 and 2014. Time and frequency variant parameters, maximum S wave and maximum P wave amplitude ratio (S/P), the spectral ratio (Sr), maximum frequency (fmax), and total signal duration of the waveform were used for discrimination analyses. The maximum frequency (fmax) versus time duration of the seismic signal gives a higher classification percentage (94%) than the other discriminants. At the end of this study, 41 out of 110 events (44%) are determined as quarry blasts, and 62 (56%) are considered as earthquakes. 相似文献
12.
W.-Y. Chung 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2002,159(11-12):2567-2584
—?An intriguing observation in Greenland is a clear spatial correlation between seismicity and deglaciated areas along passive continental margins, a piece of evidence for earthquake triggering due to postglacial rebound. Another piece of evidence for induced seismicity due to deglaciation derives from earthquake source mechanisms. Sparse, low magnitude seismicity has made it difficult to determine focal mechanisms from Greenland earthquakes. On the basis of two normal faulting events along deglaciated margins and from the spatial distribution of epicenters, earlier investigators suggested that the earthquakes of Greenland are due to postglacial rebound. This interpretation is tested here by using more recent data. Broadband waveforms of teleseismic P waves from the August 10, 1993 (m b = 5.4) and October 14, 1998 (m b = 5.1) earthquakes have been inverted for moment tensors and source parameters. Both mechanisms indicate normal faulting with small strike-slip components: the 1993 event, strike = 348.9°, dip = 41.0°, rake =?56.3°, focal depth = 11?km, seismic moment = 1.03?×?1024 dyne-cm, and M w = 5.3; the 1998 event, strike = 61.6°, dip = 58.0°, rake =?95.5°, focal depth = 5?km, seismic moment = 5.72?×?1023 dyne-cm, and M w = 5.1. These and the two prior events support the theory that the shallow part of the lithosphere beneath the deglaciated margins is under horizontal extension. The observed stress field can be explained as flexural stresses due to removal of ice loads and surface loads by glacial erosion. These local extensional stresses are further enhanced by the spreading stress of continental crust and reactivate preexisting faults. Earthquake characteristics observed from Greenland suggest that the dominant seismogenic stresses are from postglacial rebound and spreading of the continental lithosphere. 相似文献
13.
A multifractal analysis of seismicity of three large earthquakes in Chile is made: the Central Zone 1985 (M W = 8.0), Antofagasta 1995 (M W = 8.1), and Maule 2010 (M W = 8.8) earthquakes. The analysis shows that the fractal dimension spectrum D q decreases with time before an earthquake. This fact suggests that the spatial distribution of seismic events could form a cluster before a main shock. 相似文献
14.
地震临界区域尺度的界定对于地震前兆研究有着重要意义。通过加卸载响应比(LURR)及震前矩张量加速释放(AMR)两种模型对地震临界区域尺度进行了分析。采用不同半径区域内地震事件的Benioff应变分别计算LURR和AMR时间序列,震前引起时间序列异常变化最明显的半径尺度所定义的区域就是最佳地震临界区域。华北地区M>5震例研究结果显示两种模型所得到的最佳地震临界区域具有明显的一致性,最佳临界区域半径与主震震级之间统计的线性关系斜率约为0.34～0.36。研究结果表明通过不同预测模型可以较为定量的评价地震临界区域尺度,从而为地震预测研究提供依据。 相似文献
15.
We explain the global variation of Benioff zone seismicity with depth and the orientation of stress axes of deep and intermediate earthquakes using numerical models of subducting slabs. Models that match the seismicity and stress require a barrier to flow at the 670 km seismic discontinuity. The barrier may be a viscosity increase of at least an order of magnitude or a chemical discontinuity. Instantaneous flow is subparallel to the slabs for models with a viscosity increase but contorted for models with a chemical barrier. Log N (number of earthquakes) decreases linearly to 250–300 km depth and increases thereafter. Stress magnitude in our models shows the same pattern, in accord with experiments showing N proportional to ekσ, with k a constant and σ stress magnitude. The models predict downdip compression in the slabs at depths below 300–400 km, as observed for earthquake stress axes. 相似文献
16.
J. H. Latter 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1971,35(1):127-142
Research is described aimed at detecting significant relationships between patterns of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. A large data file of seismic and volcanic events has been assembled on punched cards, and two computer programmes used to relate earthquakes to active or potentially active volcanic centres, and deep earthquakes to succeeding shallower ones and volcanic eruptions after the manner suggested byBlot. It is concluded that recognisable sequences occur in some areas, but that the process is neither universal nor invariable. The presence of random events or events due to other causes almost always obscures patterns of seismicity which seem to be related to volcanic eruptions. The «Blot process» appears to operate in some cases but is probably a second order phenomenon: primarily, correlated sequences of seismic and volcanic events result from periods of tectonic instability and perhaps increased tensional conditions which affect very wide areas of the Earth’s surface for periods of several months to several years at a time. 相似文献
17.
Earthquakes in Iran and neighbouring regions are closely connected to their position within the geologically active Alpine-Himalayan
belt. Modern tectonic activity is forced by the convergent movements between two plates: The Arabian plate, including Saudi
Arabia, the Persian Gulf and the Zagros Ranges of Iran, and the Eurasian plate. The intensive seismic activity in this region
is recorded with shallow focal depth and magnitude rising as high as Mw = 7.8. The study region can be attributed to a highly complex geodynamic process and therefore is well suited for multifractal
seismicity analysis. Multifractal analysis of earthquakes (mb ≥ 3) occurring during 1973 – 2006 led to the detection of a clustering pattern in the narrow time span prior to all the large
earthquakes: Mw = 7.8 on 16.9.1978; Mw = 6.8 on 26.12.2003; Mw = 7.7 on 10.5.97. Based on the spatio-temporal clustering pattern of events, the potential for future large events can be
assessed. Spatio-temporal clustering of events apparently indicates a highly stressed region, an asperity or weak zone from
which the rupture propagation eventually nucleates, causing large earthquakes. This clustering pattern analysis done on a
well-constrained catalogue for most of the fault systems of known seismicity may eventually aid in the preparedness and earthquake
disaster mitigation. 相似文献
18.
We systematically analyzed the Benioff strain release before 65 earthquakes with MS over 6.0 in China from 1978 to 2003 to investigate the generality of the widely discussed accelerating moment release (AMR)
phenomenon before strong and intermediate-strength earthquakes. In this approach, a strong or intermediate-strength earthquake
is selected as a ``target earthquake,' and retrospective analysis of seismic activity before the ``target earthquake' is
performed. Simple searching area (three circular areas with different radius centered at the epicenter of the ``target earthquake')
and unified temporal range (8 years) are taken in the analysis. Justification of whether AMR exists is by both visual inspection
and by power-law curve fitting. It is found that more than 3/5 of the earthquakes under consideration exhibit clear pre-shock
AMR property, and 1/3 of the events seem to be sensitive to the searching area. AMR behavior shows apparent focal mechanism
dependence: 15 out of 17 dip-slip earthquakes with stable moment release characteristics against the changing of searching
areas exhibit AMR behavior, while 16 out of 25 strike-slip earthquakes with stable moment release characteristics exhibit
AMR behavior. 相似文献
19.
20.
Mansour Niazi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1984,122(6):966-981
Around 700 reported precursors of about 350 earthquakes, including the negative observations, have been compiled in 11 categories with 31 subdivisions. The data base is subjected to an initial sorting and screening by imposing three restrictions on the ranges of main shock magnitude (M≥4.0), precursory time (t≤20 years), and the epicentral distance of observation points (X m≤4.100.3M ). Of the 31 subcategories of precursory phenomena, 18 with 9 data points or more are independently studied by regressing their precursory times against magnitude. The preliminary results tend to classify the precursors into three groups:
- The precursors which show weak or no correlation between time and the magnitude of the eventual main shock. Examples of this group are foreshocks and precursory tilt.
- The precursors which show clear scaling with magnitude. These include seismic velocity ratio (V p/Vs), travel time delay, duration of seismic quiescence, and, to some degree, the variation ofb-value, and anomalous seismicity.
- The precursors which display clustering of precursory times around a mean value, which differs for different precursors from a few hours to a few years. Examples include the conductivity rate, geoelectric current and potential, strain, water well level, geochemical anomalies, change of focal mechanism, and the enhancement of seismicity reported only for larger earthquakes. Some of the precursors in this category, such as leveling changes and the occurrence of microseismicity, show bimodal patterns of precursory times and may partially be coseismic.